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After back-to-back series wins against the White Sox and Giants the Guardians make the short hop to the Motor City for a four-game set against the Tigers. The Tigers got off to a great start and were 18-13 on May 1 but have since gone 24-35. However, they are playing well at the moment having won 5 of 7. They are 19-22 at home while the Guardians are 26-21 on the road.
The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Tigers in Cleveland in early May. In the game won by Detroit Logan Allen gave up seven runs. He won’t be pitching this week. Neither will Detroit’s ace, Tarik Skubal, who pitched Sunday. There’s only a 1 in 5 chance you miss the opponents’ ace in a four-game series, but we got lucky this time.
The Tigers are also missing injured starter Casey Mize (2-6, 4.23). RF Kerry Carpenter, their best hitter at .283/.914, is also out. Carpenter went 3-for-7 in the first series with all three hits being doubles. Andy Ibanez went 5-for-11 in Cleveland with two home runs. He hit .341 in June. Unfortunately he will be available.
The Tigers are a little below average offensively, ranking 20th in runs per game, home run percentage, and strikeout percentage. They’re 28th in on-base percentage but 16th in ISO and extra base hit percentage. They get fewer runners on base than all but two teams, but because they get extra base hits they’re 20th in scoring. They’re 24th in walk percentage so they’re basically free swingers who go for the big hit, strike out more than average, and don’t walk much.
LF Riley Greene is their best available hitter at .261/.856 with 17 home runs and 45 RBI’s. C Carson Kelly has a slash of .245/.725 and Matt Vierling is next at .245/.714. Andy Ibanez is hitting .285/.717 and he’s the guy who hurt us in Cleveland. He has two home runs and both came against the Guardians.
According to Baseball Savant, Comerica Park is the 6th most pitcher friendly park in baseball with a park factor of 97 (100 is average). So it slightly favors pitchers, but just 3% more than the average park. It’s the most difficult park to homer in (factor of 79) but the second easiest park to triple in. The outfield is huge which makes me think Noel might be confined to DH this series.
The Tigers rank 16th in ERA. They are 7th in on-base percentage and 10th in WHIP. They are slightly better at home with a 3.90 ERA in Comerica. Their bullpen ranks 20th in ERA but in the first series the Guardians managed just one run in 12.1 innings off their bullpen. The Tigers’ defense is average.
It will be weird playing the Tigers in Comerica with no Miggy Cabrera, but I don’t miss him one bit.
The Tigers will have four right-handers going as they do not have a left-handed starter. The Guardians go with Williams, Lively, Bibee, and whoever they choose to take Allen’s spot, probably Spencer Howard.
Gavin Williams makes his second start on Monday. Williams had a rough start against the White Sox in his first appearance since last year, allowing 7 hits, 2 walks, and 5 runs in 4 innings. Hopefully his command will be a little sharper the second time around, but it may take him several starts to get his rhythm.
Keider Montero, a 24-year-old rookie right-hander, pitches the opener in Mize’s spot. He has started two games and relieved in one with a record of 1-2 and a 6.60 ERA. He got roughed up his first two games but in his last start he held the Twins 2 runs in 6.1 innings, throwing only 80 pitches. Right-handed hitters are 8-for-26 off him with three home runs.
This will be Montero’s fourth major league appearance and the first three were a mix of very bad and very good so it’s hard to know what to expect.
Ben Lively goes against Kenta Maeda (2-5, 6.71) on Tuesday. Tanner Bibee opposes Reese Olson (3-8, 3.22) on Wednesday and I’m assuming Spencer Howard faces Jack Flaherty (5-5, 3.24) on Thursday in a day game.
The Twins are lurking six games back and have won 10 of 14. They finish the first half on the road against the White Sox and Giants so we need to keep winning.
The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Tigers in Cleveland in early May. In the game won by Detroit Logan Allen gave up seven runs. He won’t be pitching this week. Neither will Detroit’s ace, Tarik Skubal, who pitched Sunday. There’s only a 1 in 5 chance you miss the opponents’ ace in a four-game series, but we got lucky this time.
The Tigers are also missing injured starter Casey Mize (2-6, 4.23). RF Kerry Carpenter, their best hitter at .283/.914, is also out. Carpenter went 3-for-7 in the first series with all three hits being doubles. Andy Ibanez went 5-for-11 in Cleveland with two home runs. He hit .341 in June. Unfortunately he will be available.
The Tigers are a little below average offensively, ranking 20th in runs per game, home run percentage, and strikeout percentage. They’re 28th in on-base percentage but 16th in ISO and extra base hit percentage. They get fewer runners on base than all but two teams, but because they get extra base hits they’re 20th in scoring. They’re 24th in walk percentage so they’re basically free swingers who go for the big hit, strike out more than average, and don’t walk much.
LF Riley Greene is their best available hitter at .261/.856 with 17 home runs and 45 RBI’s. C Carson Kelly has a slash of .245/.725 and Matt Vierling is next at .245/.714. Andy Ibanez is hitting .285/.717 and he’s the guy who hurt us in Cleveland. He has two home runs and both came against the Guardians.
According to Baseball Savant, Comerica Park is the 6th most pitcher friendly park in baseball with a park factor of 97 (100 is average). So it slightly favors pitchers, but just 3% more than the average park. It’s the most difficult park to homer in (factor of 79) but the second easiest park to triple in. The outfield is huge which makes me think Noel might be confined to DH this series.
The Tigers rank 16th in ERA. They are 7th in on-base percentage and 10th in WHIP. They are slightly better at home with a 3.90 ERA in Comerica. Their bullpen ranks 20th in ERA but in the first series the Guardians managed just one run in 12.1 innings off their bullpen. The Tigers’ defense is average.
It will be weird playing the Tigers in Comerica with no Miggy Cabrera, but I don’t miss him one bit.
The Tigers will have four right-handers going as they do not have a left-handed starter. The Guardians go with Williams, Lively, Bibee, and whoever they choose to take Allen’s spot, probably Spencer Howard.
Gavin Williams makes his second start on Monday. Williams had a rough start against the White Sox in his first appearance since last year, allowing 7 hits, 2 walks, and 5 runs in 4 innings. Hopefully his command will be a little sharper the second time around, but it may take him several starts to get his rhythm.
Keider Montero, a 24-year-old rookie right-hander, pitches the opener in Mize’s spot. He has started two games and relieved in one with a record of 1-2 and a 6.60 ERA. He got roughed up his first two games but in his last start he held the Twins 2 runs in 6.1 innings, throwing only 80 pitches. Right-handed hitters are 8-for-26 off him with three home runs.
This will be Montero’s fourth major league appearance and the first three were a mix of very bad and very good so it’s hard to know what to expect.
Ben Lively goes against Kenta Maeda (2-5, 6.71) on Tuesday. Tanner Bibee opposes Reese Olson (3-8, 3.22) on Wednesday and I’m assuming Spencer Howard faces Jack Flaherty (5-5, 3.24) on Thursday in a day game.
The Twins are lurking six games back and have won 10 of 14. They finish the first half on the road against the White Sox and Giants so we need to keep winning.
