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After a successful 4-1 road trip the Guardians begin August by returning home to host the Baltimore Orioles, who are hanging on to a 0.5 game lead over the Yankees in the East. The Guardians won 2 of 3 in Baltimore in late June with all three games decided by 2 runs or less.
The O’s started 2024 like a house afire at 43-22 but are 22-22 since then so in their last 44 games they have been treading water. They had some injuries to starters John Means, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish which have had an effect. However, O’s starters are 5th in ERA and 8th in WAR.
The O’s are an offensive powerhouse ranking 3rd in runs per game and wRC+. They are 11th in on-base percentage but rank 1st in home run percentage, extra base hit percentage, and isolated power while ranking 2nd in hard hit percentage, launch angle, and average exit velocity. IOW, they hit the ball high and hard and do a lot of damage.
They rank 23rd in walk percentage and 22nd in out-of-zone swing percentage so they are very aggressive swingers and you can make them chase. From the numbers that is their only offensive weakness I can see.
In the series in Baltimore the O’s scored 14 runs in three games with 6 of them coming in three innings against Logan Allen and 2 more against Xzavion Curry, neither of whom will be pitching this series, except maybe Curry if it’s a lost cause. So they scored 6 runs in 20 innings against pitchers other than Allen and Curry.
The O’s rank 10th in ERA and 11th in fielding. They do a good job of preventing home runs (6th) and their bullpen ranks 14th in ERA. So their pitching and defense is better than average but not great.
The O’s have a lot of hitters that can hurt you, starting with Gunnar Henderson (.285/.934) with 28 HR’s and 65 RBI’s. Anthony Santander (.248/.848, 31 HR’s, 73 RBI’s), Ryan O’Hearn (.273/.801), Colton Cowser (.245/.783), Ryan Mountcastle (.273/.760), and Adley Rutschman (.263/.755) round out the over 750 OPS club. You can’t relax against anybody in this lineup. They have eight players with double digit home runs.
Make that seven. The Guardians got a break (literally) when All-Star third baseman Jordan Westburg (.269/.815, 18 HR’s) was hit by a pitch yesterday and broke his hand.
The Guardians got another break in that starter Grayson Rodriquez (13-4) pitched yesterday so he will miss the series. Also, their best starter, Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.47), who was originally scheduled to start Sunday, has been pushed back to Monday so we will miss both Rodriguez and Burnes, easily their two best starters, in a four-game series. How lucky can you get?
The Guardians were off Tuesday so they were set to go with Lively, CC, Bibee, and Williams all on normal rest, but for some reason they pushed Bibee and Williams back a day so they stick with a five-man rotation. They have not named a starter for Saturday. Normally that would be Joey Cantillo. Cobb will not be ready so I guess they’re going with Cantillo unless they decide to cancel Tyler Boyd’s last rehab start and start him against the O’s.
Ben Lively kicks it off Thursday night against a yet to be named starter. It was originally scheduled to be Dean Kremer, but he’s been pushed back to Friday and Albert Suarez to Saturday.
Lively (9-6, 3.44) has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 12 starts. He has not faced any current Orioles hitters in his career. Lively has a 2.66 ERA at home in 11 starts.
Carlos Carrasco goes Friday against Dean Kremer (4-7, 4.20). Carlos held the O’s to 2 runs in 5 innings in Baltimore. Carlos has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 12 runs and 15 hits in 9 innings to Detroit and Philadelphia.
The Guardians have not named a starter for Saturday although it will be Cantillo’s turn. The O’s go with Albert Suarez (5-4, 3.62), who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts covering 11.2 innings.
Sunday will be Tanner Bibee against Zach Eflin (6-7, 4.11). Eflin has a 5.32 ERA on the road and has allowed 23 hits in his last three starts.
The Guardians are catching the Orioles at the perfect time with Rodriguez having pitched Tuesday and Burnes being moved back to Monday to pitch on six days rest for an unknown reason. Also, Westburg is out and he is one of their key guys. Hopefully the Guardians can take advantage and win three games, aided by their new right fielder.
The O’s started 2024 like a house afire at 43-22 but are 22-22 since then so in their last 44 games they have been treading water. They had some injuries to starters John Means, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish which have had an effect. However, O’s starters are 5th in ERA and 8th in WAR.
The O’s are an offensive powerhouse ranking 3rd in runs per game and wRC+. They are 11th in on-base percentage but rank 1st in home run percentage, extra base hit percentage, and isolated power while ranking 2nd in hard hit percentage, launch angle, and average exit velocity. IOW, they hit the ball high and hard and do a lot of damage.
They rank 23rd in walk percentage and 22nd in out-of-zone swing percentage so they are very aggressive swingers and you can make them chase. From the numbers that is their only offensive weakness I can see.
In the series in Baltimore the O’s scored 14 runs in three games with 6 of them coming in three innings against Logan Allen and 2 more against Xzavion Curry, neither of whom will be pitching this series, except maybe Curry if it’s a lost cause. So they scored 6 runs in 20 innings against pitchers other than Allen and Curry.
The O’s rank 10th in ERA and 11th in fielding. They do a good job of preventing home runs (6th) and their bullpen ranks 14th in ERA. So their pitching and defense is better than average but not great.
The O’s have a lot of hitters that can hurt you, starting with Gunnar Henderson (.285/.934) with 28 HR’s and 65 RBI’s. Anthony Santander (.248/.848, 31 HR’s, 73 RBI’s), Ryan O’Hearn (.273/.801), Colton Cowser (.245/.783), Ryan Mountcastle (.273/.760), and Adley Rutschman (.263/.755) round out the over 750 OPS club. You can’t relax against anybody in this lineup. They have eight players with double digit home runs.
Make that seven. The Guardians got a break (literally) when All-Star third baseman Jordan Westburg (.269/.815, 18 HR’s) was hit by a pitch yesterday and broke his hand.
The Guardians got another break in that starter Grayson Rodriquez (13-4) pitched yesterday so he will miss the series. Also, their best starter, Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.47), who was originally scheduled to start Sunday, has been pushed back to Monday so we will miss both Rodriguez and Burnes, easily their two best starters, in a four-game series. How lucky can you get?
The Guardians were off Tuesday so they were set to go with Lively, CC, Bibee, and Williams all on normal rest, but for some reason they pushed Bibee and Williams back a day so they stick with a five-man rotation. They have not named a starter for Saturday. Normally that would be Joey Cantillo. Cobb will not be ready so I guess they’re going with Cantillo unless they decide to cancel Tyler Boyd’s last rehab start and start him against the O’s.
Ben Lively kicks it off Thursday night against a yet to be named starter. It was originally scheduled to be Dean Kremer, but he’s been pushed back to Friday and Albert Suarez to Saturday.
Lively (9-6, 3.44) has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 12 starts. He has not faced any current Orioles hitters in his career. Lively has a 2.66 ERA at home in 11 starts.
Carlos Carrasco goes Friday against Dean Kremer (4-7, 4.20). Carlos held the O’s to 2 runs in 5 innings in Baltimore. Carlos has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 12 runs and 15 hits in 9 innings to Detroit and Philadelphia.
The Guardians have not named a starter for Saturday although it will be Cantillo’s turn. The O’s go with Albert Suarez (5-4, 3.62), who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts covering 11.2 innings.
Sunday will be Tanner Bibee against Zach Eflin (6-7, 4.11). Eflin has a 5.32 ERA on the road and has allowed 23 hits in his last three starts.
The Guardians are catching the Orioles at the perfect time with Rodriguez having pitched Tuesday and Burnes being moved back to Monday to pitch on six days rest for an unknown reason. Also, Westburg is out and he is one of their key guys. Hopefully the Guardians can take advantage and win three games, aided by their new right fielder.
