Game 6 preview:
This will have to be short because I spent most of the day with a sick relative.
The Cavs return to Toronto where they have averaged 94.5 points in their two losses. Obviously that won't cut it. They need to find a way to score more on the road in front of a loud and hostile crowd.
The Cavs are shooting an appalling 42.5% from the field and 28.2% on 3's in Toronto. Their free throw percentage is just under 72%. Donovan is shooting 32%, Mobley 33%, and Harden 41% north of the border. All three need to improve their shooting percentages.
In Game 4 the Cavs committed 14 turnovers in the first half leading to 28 Raptors points. In the second half they committed one turnover which did not lead to any points. So the difference in points lost on turnovers was 28. The Raptors scored 74 points in the first half and 46 in the second for a difference of, you guessed it, 28 points.
Avoiding turnovers is the key. James and Donovan, don't try to force your way to the rim through a crowd of Raptors in the paint. Don't make careless, telegraphed passes and definitely no long sideline-to-sideline passes in the half-court offense. If you're about to be doubled, pass out of it quickly before they trap you and make it a short, crisp pass.
In their three home wins the Cavs are averaging 13.7 turnovers. In their two road losses they are averaging 18.5 turnovers.
Brandon Ingram is questionable for Game 6 but he's averaging 12 points per game on 33% from the field so I don't think they'll miss him, TBH. They're probably better with Mamu or Battle on the floor than Ingram. In fact they are -17.2 in plus/minus with Ingram which is worst on the team except for Ja'Kobe Walter.
Jamal Shead is having a remarkable series at +22.4. The next highest Raptor is Barrett at +5.4. The Cavs need to pay more attention to Shead as they have been leaving him unguarded on the perimeter to double Barnes and Barrett. Shead has reaped the benefits.
For the Cavs the on/off leaders are Wade at +28.7 (which leads all players), Merrill at +27.0, Allen +11.7, and Harden +5.6. Schroder is +1.4, Donovan is -1.5, and after that it falls off a cliff as Strus is -21.6 and Mobley -22.4. Tyson is -14.0.
The Mobley number is shocking as he is a max player but the Cavs are getting killed when he's on the floor. He had something of a bounce back game on Wednesday so we'll see, but overall his playoff performance has not been inspiring, at least in terms of team success when he's on the floor versus off.
It will be interesting to see if Kenny starts Strus again because the Cavs have been much, much better with Wade on the floor than Strus. It's over a 50-point difference. Max can be very good when he's hitting 3's, grabbing rebounds, and driving and dishing to bigs, but he's missed 67 games and he doesn't look quite like himself. He's also a defensive liability.
If I'm Kenny I'm giving more minutes to Wade, Merrill, and Allen while cutting back Strus' minutes. He's getting abused defensively by Barrett and Barnett.
This game is on Prime Video at 7:30. The pressure is on the Raptors to hold serve and give themselves a shot at an upset in game 7. My feeling is that if the Cavs can't beat the Raptors in Toronto without Quickley AND Ingram (if Ingram is out), then they won't get much farther even if they win Game 7.