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It's here - the 2025 season! After winning 92 games last year and a playoff series against Detroit the Guardians open 2025 on the road with a three-game series against the Royals, who finished last year tied for second in the Central with an 86-76 record. The Royals were 45-36 at home and 8-5 against the Guardians. Tanner Bibee goes against lefty Cole Ragans in the opener.
The Royals got off to a great start last year, topping out at 34-19 or 15 games over .500. They were five games under .500 the rest of the season. They were 34-31 after the break. Basically they had a great first third of the season and were mediocre for the last 109 games.
The Royals finished 13th in runs per game, one spot ahead of the Guardians. They were 21st in home runs per game, so power was not their thing. They were 19th in OBP, 14th in slugging, and 14th in OPS. Basically average at scoring runs and they haven’t added any impact bats or lost any.
The Royals were 6th in team ERA, 13th in WHIP, 20th in K/9, and 1st in HR/9. They allowed less than one HR per game, but part of that is Kaufmann Stadium is the 6th most difficult park to homer in. The Royals offensively were 27th in home runs per game at home and 12th on the road, so their big park really suppresses home run totals.
Fangraphs ranked the Royals second in the majors in defensive rating last year. Starting pitching and defense were the main drivers of their success. They ranked first in outs above average. At home they kept the ball in the yard and played great defense, ranking second in UZR. Their pitchers' HR/FB percentage was the lowest in baseball.
The Royals’ starters were second in WAR to Atlanta last year, second in innings pitched, and second in ERA. Their bullpen was average in WAR and ERA.
Since there is no data on this season yet I borrowed some excerpts from season previews to get a line on the Royals.
The Royals, on the other hand, did try to get better this offseason, but they were working uphill to some degree as their 2024 season saw them get over 150 starts from five guys, four of whom were better than league average. They re-signed Michael Wacha, brought in some pitching depth, and traded for Jonathan India, who gives them a viable OBP threat to get on base in front of Bobby Witt Jr.
The pitching depth — in the forms of Michael Lorenzen and Carlos Estévez — is a modest insurance policy against the inevitable starts some of their four returning starters will miss, but it’s not going to cover them if one of them misses half the season. At least they did something. - Keith Law [Law thinks the rest of the division, including the Guardians, made no effort to get better].
The Royals rotation was second best in baseball last year with a 3.55 ERA. They had two starters finish Top 5 in American League Cy Young voting -- Seth Lugo (second) and Ragans (fourth). Those two combined for 65 starts, and Michael Wacha added 29 starts. The Royals were incredibly lucky with their rotation health and acknowledged as much at the end of the year while also knowing they might not get that lucky again and that they had to get deeper.
If the Royals can come close to replicating what they did last year with their pitching, they’ll be in a good spot throughout the season.
Great Unknown
Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez make the Royals’ lineup very top-heavy, and they can carry this team all the way to October. But behind them? All the questions reside in the bottom half of the order.
The Royals weren’t able to bring in the middle-of-the-order bat they wanted this offseason, so the pressure is on for MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe to improve from a year ago and provide a power threat in the fifth and sixth spots. Can Maikel Garcia take the next step in his career, or will he be relegated to a utility role? Will Michael Massey stay on the field and deepen the lineup? As we saw at the end of 2024, even the stars struggle from time to time -- so who will step up when the Royals need it the most?
[Bobby] Witt’s 10.4 wins above replacement (WAR) last year ranked second in baseball only to Aaron Judge’s 11.2. Witt was the 2024 batting champion with a .332 average...He ranked in the Top 5 in the AL in RBIs (109, tied for fourth), on-base percentage (.389, fifth), slugging percentage (.588, second) and wRC+ (168, tied for third).
An All-Star for the first time in his career, Witt hit 32 home runs and 45 doubles while stealing 31 bags. He was an AL Gold Glove winner at shortstop, a Silver Slugger Award winner and on the All-MLB First Team at the end of the year.
[Cole] Ragans established himself as a premier starter in the league last season with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts across 32 starts…Ragans has elite swing-and-miss stuff from the left side and can dominate hitters during any given start. If he can keep the walks down and go deep into games, here’s thinking he’ll be in Cy Young consideration again. - MLB.com
Ragans starts the opener and he was not impressive in two starts against the Guardians last year, going 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. The Guardians hit .265/.802 against him. He also was not good in spring training with an ERA of 8.20 in 18 innings. However, he allowed five home runs and some of them could have been helped by the wind in Arizona.
Last year the Guardians averaged just under 4.0 runs per game against KC, hitting .242/.691. Josh Naylor had 11 RBI’s in 12 games to lead the team, but of course we won't have those ribbies this year. Jose hit .308/.953 against them. Tanner Bibee went 2-0 in four starts with a 4.09 ERA.
The Royals scored 60 runs or 4.6 per game against the Guards. Bobby Witt destroyed Guardians’ pitching to the tune of .347/1.142. Salvador Perez was right behind at .306/1.026 followed by Hunter Renfroe at .381/1.197. Paul DeJong hit .300/.948. Four right-handed power bats in the middle of the order did tremendous damage. Fortunately DeJong is no longer on the team.
The Royals have a veteran rotation; Seth Lugo is 35 while Michael Wacha and Micheal Lorenzen are both 33. It remains to be seen if these guys can all give the Royals 30 starts this year.
Salvador Perez is 34 but he had a great season last year with 27 homers, 104 RBI’s, and a .786 OPS, which is 24 points above his career average. He only hit .252/.735 at Kauffmann. I wonder how many more home runs he would have in his career if he played at someplace like Fenway or Cincinnati. Hard to believe he’s still catching at age 34 when he’s listed at 255 pounds.
Last year Perez hit .329 with RISP so the Guardians should walk him with first base open and ducks on the pond. He won't score from first on a double.
I assume the Guardians will send two more right-handers to the mound after Bibee and not ask Logan Allen to face the Royals’ gauntlet of right-handed power bats. That being said, the Royals were 50 OPS points better against righties last year.
The Royals got off to a great start last year, topping out at 34-19 or 15 games over .500. They were five games under .500 the rest of the season. They were 34-31 after the break. Basically they had a great first third of the season and were mediocre for the last 109 games.
The Royals finished 13th in runs per game, one spot ahead of the Guardians. They were 21st in home runs per game, so power was not their thing. They were 19th in OBP, 14th in slugging, and 14th in OPS. Basically average at scoring runs and they haven’t added any impact bats or lost any.
The Royals were 6th in team ERA, 13th in WHIP, 20th in K/9, and 1st in HR/9. They allowed less than one HR per game, but part of that is Kaufmann Stadium is the 6th most difficult park to homer in. The Royals offensively were 27th in home runs per game at home and 12th on the road, so their big park really suppresses home run totals.
Fangraphs ranked the Royals second in the majors in defensive rating last year. Starting pitching and defense were the main drivers of their success. They ranked first in outs above average. At home they kept the ball in the yard and played great defense, ranking second in UZR. Their pitchers' HR/FB percentage was the lowest in baseball.
The Royals’ starters were second in WAR to Atlanta last year, second in innings pitched, and second in ERA. Their bullpen was average in WAR and ERA.
Since there is no data on this season yet I borrowed some excerpts from season previews to get a line on the Royals.
The Royals, on the other hand, did try to get better this offseason, but they were working uphill to some degree as their 2024 season saw them get over 150 starts from five guys, four of whom were better than league average. They re-signed Michael Wacha, brought in some pitching depth, and traded for Jonathan India, who gives them a viable OBP threat to get on base in front of Bobby Witt Jr.
The pitching depth — in the forms of Michael Lorenzen and Carlos Estévez — is a modest insurance policy against the inevitable starts some of their four returning starters will miss, but it’s not going to cover them if one of them misses half the season. At least they did something. - Keith Law [Law thinks the rest of the division, including the Guardians, made no effort to get better].
The Royals rotation was second best in baseball last year with a 3.55 ERA. They had two starters finish Top 5 in American League Cy Young voting -- Seth Lugo (second) and Ragans (fourth). Those two combined for 65 starts, and Michael Wacha added 29 starts. The Royals were incredibly lucky with their rotation health and acknowledged as much at the end of the year while also knowing they might not get that lucky again and that they had to get deeper.
If the Royals can come close to replicating what they did last year with their pitching, they’ll be in a good spot throughout the season.
Great Unknown
Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez make the Royals’ lineup very top-heavy, and they can carry this team all the way to October. But behind them? All the questions reside in the bottom half of the order.
The Royals weren’t able to bring in the middle-of-the-order bat they wanted this offseason, so the pressure is on for MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe to improve from a year ago and provide a power threat in the fifth and sixth spots. Can Maikel Garcia take the next step in his career, or will he be relegated to a utility role? Will Michael Massey stay on the field and deepen the lineup? As we saw at the end of 2024, even the stars struggle from time to time -- so who will step up when the Royals need it the most?
[Bobby] Witt’s 10.4 wins above replacement (WAR) last year ranked second in baseball only to Aaron Judge’s 11.2. Witt was the 2024 batting champion with a .332 average...He ranked in the Top 5 in the AL in RBIs (109, tied for fourth), on-base percentage (.389, fifth), slugging percentage (.588, second) and wRC+ (168, tied for third).
An All-Star for the first time in his career, Witt hit 32 home runs and 45 doubles while stealing 31 bags. He was an AL Gold Glove winner at shortstop, a Silver Slugger Award winner and on the All-MLB First Team at the end of the year.
[Cole] Ragans established himself as a premier starter in the league last season with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts across 32 starts…Ragans has elite swing-and-miss stuff from the left side and can dominate hitters during any given start. If he can keep the walks down and go deep into games, here’s thinking he’ll be in Cy Young consideration again. - MLB.com
Ragans starts the opener and he was not impressive in two starts against the Guardians last year, going 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. The Guardians hit .265/.802 against him. He also was not good in spring training with an ERA of 8.20 in 18 innings. However, he allowed five home runs and some of them could have been helped by the wind in Arizona.
Last year the Guardians averaged just under 4.0 runs per game against KC, hitting .242/.691. Josh Naylor had 11 RBI’s in 12 games to lead the team, but of course we won't have those ribbies this year. Jose hit .308/.953 against them. Tanner Bibee went 2-0 in four starts with a 4.09 ERA.
The Royals scored 60 runs or 4.6 per game against the Guards. Bobby Witt destroyed Guardians’ pitching to the tune of .347/1.142. Salvador Perez was right behind at .306/1.026 followed by Hunter Renfroe at .381/1.197. Paul DeJong hit .300/.948. Four right-handed power bats in the middle of the order did tremendous damage. Fortunately DeJong is no longer on the team.
The Royals have a veteran rotation; Seth Lugo is 35 while Michael Wacha and Micheal Lorenzen are both 33. It remains to be seen if these guys can all give the Royals 30 starts this year.
Salvador Perez is 34 but he had a great season last year with 27 homers, 104 RBI’s, and a .786 OPS, which is 24 points above his career average. He only hit .252/.735 at Kauffmann. I wonder how many more home runs he would have in his career if he played at someplace like Fenway or Cincinnati. Hard to believe he’s still catching at age 34 when he’s listed at 255 pounds.
Last year Perez hit .329 with RISP so the Guardians should walk him with first base open and ducks on the pond. He won't score from first on a double.
I assume the Guardians will send two more right-handers to the mound after Bibee and not ask Logan Allen to face the Royals’ gauntlet of right-handed power bats. That being said, the Royals were 50 OPS points better against righties last year.
