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We're into May so hopefully the weather will warm up and the Guardians' bats as well. Winners of 9 of 13 the Guardians pack their bags and take the short hop across Lake Erie for a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto is 15-16 overall and 9-6 at home. They have lost 8 of their last 11. Max Scherzer and Nick Sandlin are out.
The Jays are an anemic hitting team with a line of .237/.656 and just 19 home runs in 30 games. However, they hit much better at home with a line of .256/.726 against .219/.588 on the road. Their home slugging percentage is .400 versus .296 away.
The Jays rank 19th in scoring at home at 4.33 runs per game. They are 16th in OPS at home so they’re average offensively in their building. They are a high contact team with the 8th lowest strikeout percentage at home. The downside is not many home runs as they’re 29th overall in home run percentage, but they’re much better at home with 13 home runs in 15 games.
Their team ERA is much higher at home at 4.86 against 3.87 on the road. Their home ERA ranks 26th. The Blue Jays park factor is right on the average so I don’t know why they hit so much better and pitch so much worse at home. The Blue Jays give up a lot of home runs in Toronto. They rank last at 5.7% opponents’ home run rate. The next worst team is at 4.4%.
The Blue Jays are 3rd best in opponents’ stolen base percentage so we may not see the Guardians swiping a lot of bags, or even trying. The Jays’ defense is ranked 2nd in the majors so hitting it over the fence seems like a good strategy.
We could see a lot more runs than we saw in the Twins series as the Jays’ home ERA is just under 5.00 and they hit for more power at home. The Guardians scraped together just 11 runs in four games against the Twins and one was a ghost runner. They need the bats to wake up and this seems like a great opportunity.
George Springer, age 35, leads the team in BA and OPS at .306/.888. Myles Straw is second at .304/.782. Yeah, THAT Myles Straw. Vlad Guerrero is hitting .267/.781 while Bo Bichette is at .293/.695. Former Guardian Andres Gimenez is hitting .165/.542.
Closer Jeff Hoffman is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 6 saves.
The Guardians will face three right-handers in this series and the first two have some mileage. Chris Bassitt is 36 and Kevin Gausman is 34. The Jays have five pitchers 32 and older, a 33-year-old catcher, and Springer is 35. They have a lot of 30-somethings.
Here are the pitching matchups:
Friday: Logan Allen v. Chris Bassitt (2-2, 2.62)
Saturday: Gavin Williams v. Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.50)
Sunday: Tanner Bibee v. Bowden Francis (2-4, 5.28)
Chris Bassitt had a 0.77 ERA after four starts but has been roughed up in his last two starts, allowing 8 ER’s in 11 innings. He’s been very good with RISP as opponents are hitting just .139. Current Guardians are hitting .267/1.039 off him.
Logan Allen had a brilliant 2.11 ERA before his last start when the Red Sox lit him up for 7 runs in 4.1 innings. The Red Sox are much better offensively than the Jays, however. Former Indian Ernie Clement is 2-for-2 against him, both doubles. Springer is 2-for-6 with a home run.
So the Guardians have been playing much better than the Jays recently but the Jays are 9-6 at home. The Guardians have had three excellent starts in a row from Bibee, Ortiz, and Lively so hopefully that will rub off on Allen and Williams in the first two games. Bassitt and Gausman were both hit pretty hard in their last two starts and Francis has a 5.28 ERA so I'm optimistic the Guardians can start putting more runs on the board.
The Jays are an anemic hitting team with a line of .237/.656 and just 19 home runs in 30 games. However, they hit much better at home with a line of .256/.726 against .219/.588 on the road. Their home slugging percentage is .400 versus .296 away.
The Jays rank 19th in scoring at home at 4.33 runs per game. They are 16th in OPS at home so they’re average offensively in their building. They are a high contact team with the 8th lowest strikeout percentage at home. The downside is not many home runs as they’re 29th overall in home run percentage, but they’re much better at home with 13 home runs in 15 games.
Their team ERA is much higher at home at 4.86 against 3.87 on the road. Their home ERA ranks 26th. The Blue Jays park factor is right on the average so I don’t know why they hit so much better and pitch so much worse at home. The Blue Jays give up a lot of home runs in Toronto. They rank last at 5.7% opponents’ home run rate. The next worst team is at 4.4%.
The Blue Jays are 3rd best in opponents’ stolen base percentage so we may not see the Guardians swiping a lot of bags, or even trying. The Jays’ defense is ranked 2nd in the majors so hitting it over the fence seems like a good strategy.
We could see a lot more runs than we saw in the Twins series as the Jays’ home ERA is just under 5.00 and they hit for more power at home. The Guardians scraped together just 11 runs in four games against the Twins and one was a ghost runner. They need the bats to wake up and this seems like a great opportunity.
George Springer, age 35, leads the team in BA and OPS at .306/.888. Myles Straw is second at .304/.782. Yeah, THAT Myles Straw. Vlad Guerrero is hitting .267/.781 while Bo Bichette is at .293/.695. Former Guardian Andres Gimenez is hitting .165/.542.
Closer Jeff Hoffman is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 6 saves.
The Guardians will face three right-handers in this series and the first two have some mileage. Chris Bassitt is 36 and Kevin Gausman is 34. The Jays have five pitchers 32 and older, a 33-year-old catcher, and Springer is 35. They have a lot of 30-somethings.
Here are the pitching matchups:
Friday: Logan Allen v. Chris Bassitt (2-2, 2.62)
Saturday: Gavin Williams v. Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.50)
Sunday: Tanner Bibee v. Bowden Francis (2-4, 5.28)
Chris Bassitt had a 0.77 ERA after four starts but has been roughed up in his last two starts, allowing 8 ER’s in 11 innings. He’s been very good with RISP as opponents are hitting just .139. Current Guardians are hitting .267/1.039 off him.
Logan Allen had a brilliant 2.11 ERA before his last start when the Red Sox lit him up for 7 runs in 4.1 innings. The Red Sox are much better offensively than the Jays, however. Former Indian Ernie Clement is 2-for-2 against him, both doubles. Springer is 2-for-6 with a home run.
So the Guardians have been playing much better than the Jays recently but the Jays are 9-6 at home. The Guardians have had three excellent starts in a row from Bibee, Ortiz, and Lively so hopefully that will rub off on Allen and Williams in the first two games. Bassitt and Gausman were both hit pretty hard in their last two starts and Francis has a 5.28 ERA so I'm optimistic the Guardians can start putting more runs on the board.
