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After taking 5 of 7 from Minnesota and Toronto and sporting the 3rd best winning percentage in the AL despite being -23 in run differential, the Guardians move on to Washington to take on the Nationals, who are 16-19 overall and 9-7 at home.
The Nats are average at scoring runs and bad at pitching and defense. They are right on the average in runs per game, OPS, slugging percentage, ISO, and home run percentage. They’re on the low end of average in extra base hit percentage and walk percentage.
LF James Wood has the highest OPS with a line of .273/.926. Wood has 9 HR’s and 21 RBI’s. Wood is 22, hits left-handed, and is 6’7”, 234. He’s only hitting .211 with runners on against .324 with an OBP of .435 with nobody on base. He should be leading off.
Former Tribe prospect Alex Call, now 30 years old, is hitting .344/.875 in 61 AB’s. He’s hitting .462 at home and his overall OBP is an amazing .449. His career line is .240/.711 so he’s probably just off to a hot start. He's a part-time player.
SS CJ Abrams is hitting .284/.856 and 1B Nathaniel Lowe is at .254/.777. C Kelbert Ruiz is hitting .298/.736. The Nationals have some decent bats and they hit significantly better at home.
Former Guardian Josh Bell, now 32, is hitting .167/.593 and Amed Rosario, now listed as a third baseman, is hitting .400 in just 20 AB’s.
The Nationals average a respectable 4.75 runs per game at home, good for 10th. The Guardians average 4.1 runs per game on the road which is 15th.
The Nationals are 27th in ERA at 5.21, but it’s 4.90 at home. They are 12th in home run percentage and 14th in XBH% so they limit the big hits. But they allow a lot of baserunners (26th in WHIP) and their defense is bad, ranking 28th overall, 27th in defensive runs saved, and 23rd in range. The lack of range is probably tied to their 27th ranking in BABIP.
The Nationals bullpen is their biggest problem as they rank last in ERA at a whopping 6.79. Their starters are 21st in ERA but 10th in innings pitched, probably because they don’t want to go to that bullpen.
Obviously the key is to work the count against the starters, get on base, drive up the pitch count, and try to get into the bullpen by the 5th or 6th inning. Getting some early runs off their somewhat below average rotation will also help.
The pitching matchups:
Monday: Luis Ortiz v. Jake Irvin (2-1, 4.01). Irvin is a 28-year-old right-hander who allowed 6 runs in 6 innings in his last start but only allowed 3 runs in his previous 3 starts so he blows hot and cold. Lefties are hitting .275/.851 off him compared to .171/.518 by right-handers. He’s been great the first time through the order (.186/.657) but not so much the second time (.286/.847). Batters are hitting .308/1.179 with RISP.
Looks like the plan for Irvin is to stack the order with left-handed bats and get him the second time through.
Ortiz has a 3.29 ERA in his five April starts after a bad first outing. He’s coming off a dominating performance against the Twins with 6 shutout innings on 3 hits.
The first time through the order batters have an OPS of .859 against Ortiz which drops almost 300 points to .563 the second time through. This is something he needs to work on, along with Gavin Williams and to a lesser extent, Tanner Bibee. You can’t give up runs early before settling in. This team is not built to come from behind.
Tuesday: Ben Lively versus Brad Lord, 1-3, 4.43. Lord is a 25-year-old right-hander.
Wednesday (day game): Logan Allen versus Mitchell Parker (3-2, 3.48). Parker is a 25-year-old lefty.
The Nationals started 1-6 but since then are 15-13. They’ve been an average team since the bad start, but obviously their pitching is not good nor is their defense, although they rank near the top in speed.
The Nats are average at scoring runs and bad at pitching and defense. They are right on the average in runs per game, OPS, slugging percentage, ISO, and home run percentage. They’re on the low end of average in extra base hit percentage and walk percentage.
LF James Wood has the highest OPS with a line of .273/.926. Wood has 9 HR’s and 21 RBI’s. Wood is 22, hits left-handed, and is 6’7”, 234. He’s only hitting .211 with runners on against .324 with an OBP of .435 with nobody on base. He should be leading off.
Former Tribe prospect Alex Call, now 30 years old, is hitting .344/.875 in 61 AB’s. He’s hitting .462 at home and his overall OBP is an amazing .449. His career line is .240/.711 so he’s probably just off to a hot start. He's a part-time player.
SS CJ Abrams is hitting .284/.856 and 1B Nathaniel Lowe is at .254/.777. C Kelbert Ruiz is hitting .298/.736. The Nationals have some decent bats and they hit significantly better at home.
Former Guardian Josh Bell, now 32, is hitting .167/.593 and Amed Rosario, now listed as a third baseman, is hitting .400 in just 20 AB’s.
The Nationals average a respectable 4.75 runs per game at home, good for 10th. The Guardians average 4.1 runs per game on the road which is 15th.
The Nationals are 27th in ERA at 5.21, but it’s 4.90 at home. They are 12th in home run percentage and 14th in XBH% so they limit the big hits. But they allow a lot of baserunners (26th in WHIP) and their defense is bad, ranking 28th overall, 27th in defensive runs saved, and 23rd in range. The lack of range is probably tied to their 27th ranking in BABIP.
The Nationals bullpen is their biggest problem as they rank last in ERA at a whopping 6.79. Their starters are 21st in ERA but 10th in innings pitched, probably because they don’t want to go to that bullpen.
Obviously the key is to work the count against the starters, get on base, drive up the pitch count, and try to get into the bullpen by the 5th or 6th inning. Getting some early runs off their somewhat below average rotation will also help.
The pitching matchups:
Monday: Luis Ortiz v. Jake Irvin (2-1, 4.01). Irvin is a 28-year-old right-hander who allowed 6 runs in 6 innings in his last start but only allowed 3 runs in his previous 3 starts so he blows hot and cold. Lefties are hitting .275/.851 off him compared to .171/.518 by right-handers. He’s been great the first time through the order (.186/.657) but not so much the second time (.286/.847). Batters are hitting .308/1.179 with RISP.
Looks like the plan for Irvin is to stack the order with left-handed bats and get him the second time through.
Ortiz has a 3.29 ERA in his five April starts after a bad first outing. He’s coming off a dominating performance against the Twins with 6 shutout innings on 3 hits.
The first time through the order batters have an OPS of .859 against Ortiz which drops almost 300 points to .563 the second time through. This is something he needs to work on, along with Gavin Williams and to a lesser extent, Tanner Bibee. You can’t give up runs early before settling in. This team is not built to come from behind.
Tuesday: Ben Lively versus Brad Lord, 1-3, 4.43. Lord is a 25-year-old right-hander.
Wednesday (day game): Logan Allen versus Mitchell Parker (3-2, 3.48). Parker is a 25-year-old lefty.
The Nationals started 1-6 but since then are 15-13. They’ve been an average team since the bad start, but obviously their pitching is not good nor is their defense, although they rank near the top in speed.
