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Having taken 2 of 3 from the Angels and 1 of 3 from the Dodgers on the home stand the Guardians head to New York for a rematch with the Yankees. This will be the last time they play the Yankees this season, barring the playoffs.
Five weeks ago these teams met in Cleveland with the Guardians winning 2 of 3 by a combined score of 11-10 in favor of the Yankees. Williams and Bibee beat them before Ortiz lost the finale 5-1. As usual he got no run support.
The Yankees got off to a mediocre start with a 19-16 record but since then have caught fire and won 17 of 23. They are 18-9 at home and have won 7 of their last 8 in Yankee Stadium. We're catching them at the wrong time.
The Yankees have some injuries to key personnel. Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Gil are out. But they have plenty of good players available.
Aaron Judge is hitting a gobsmacking .391/1.248 with 21 home runs, 50 RBI’s in 58 games, and a WAR of 4.7. The next closest Yankee is Anthony Volpe at 1.8.
Paul Goldschmidt is still raking at age 37 with a line of .333/.874. He only has 6 home runs in 216 AB’s however. His expected BA is .302 so he’s had some BABIP luck (.377).
In the first Guardians series Judge was 7-for-12 and Goldschmidt 6-for-11. Between the two they had 13 of the Yankees’ 27 hits. The rest of the team hit .175.
Ben Rice is hitting .250/.875 with 12 home runs and 25 RBI’s. Trent Grisham is hitting .253/.865 with 13 home runs and 26 RBI’s. I don’t know how anybody with 12-13 home runs has only 25-26 RBI’s. Must be because they’re hitting .171 and .206 with RISP and hitting mostly solo home runs.
The key to beating the Yankees is to keep Judge, Grisham, and Rice in the ball park and then getting the guys that come up after them. Those three have half the team’s home runs.
The Yankees are not the youngest team nor the fastest on the bases. With RISP and two out the Yankees are hitting .217 against .259 overall.
The Yankees are 3rd in runs per game, 2nd in OPS, 1st in ISO, home run percentage, and extra base hit percentage. They always have sluggers. They are also first in walk percentage but 19th in strikeout percentage. They are 1st in wRC+ at 130.
The Yankees have nine players with an OPS over .700 so they have a deep lineup. For example, C Austin Wells is hitting .212 but he has 9 home runs and more RBI’s than Goldschmidt, Rice, and Grisham. You can't relax just because you got past Judge and Goldschmidt with no damage.
Moving to run prevention, the Yankees are 9th in ERA and 7th in WHIP. They’re 6th in team defense according to Fangraphs’ system.
The Guardians are 12-12 over their last 24 games, although their schedule has been more demanding with series against the Dodgers, Tigers, Twins, Brewers, and Phillies in that stretch. The Guardians are 19-15 against teams .500 and over while the Yankees are 22-15. One encouraging number is the Guardians are 14-5 against the AL Central.
Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana were scorching hot in May. In 14 games since May 17, Nolan Jones is batting .350. He has seven hits in his last 13 at-bats with RISP.
The matchups:
Tuesday: Logan Allen v. Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.60)
Weds: Tanner Bibee v. Clarke Schmidt (2-2, 3.95)
Thurs: Luis Ortiz v. Max Fried (7-1, 1.92)
This will be a tough series not only because they’re playing a hot team on the road, but because the Guardians will be facing two lefties in Rodon and Fried. The G’s are 3-8 against lefty starters and Rodon and Fried are very, very good. The Guards have an OPS of .633 against lefties and .707 against right-handers.
The Yankees are hitting .270/.851 against lefties (.255/.798 against righties) so Allen will have a big challenge on his hands. Lefties are hitting .350/.938 off him while righties are hitting .260/.717. Since Judge and Goldschmidt hit right-handed I suppose that favors Allen. But Grisham, Rice, Bellinger, and Wells hit left-handed so Allen needs to figure out how to attack lefties more effectively.
Rodon has a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts. In his start against the Guardians in April he allowed one run on 4 hits in 7 innings. Right-handed batters are hitting .143/.499 against him. The first three times through the order batters are hitting .162, .163, and .169 so it’s not like he gets any easier the more you see him.
Allen, OTOH, has a line of .400/1.077 the third time batters face him so he’s good for twice through the order at most. I expect he’ll go to the bullpen when Bieber is ready.
The best matchup for the Guardians is Wednesday with Bibee against Clarke Schmidt. The Guardians got 5 runs in 4 innings off Schmidt in Cleveland while Bibee held the Yankees to 2 runs in 6 innings.
Five weeks ago these teams met in Cleveland with the Guardians winning 2 of 3 by a combined score of 11-10 in favor of the Yankees. Williams and Bibee beat them before Ortiz lost the finale 5-1. As usual he got no run support.
The Yankees got off to a mediocre start with a 19-16 record but since then have caught fire and won 17 of 23. They are 18-9 at home and have won 7 of their last 8 in Yankee Stadium. We're catching them at the wrong time.
The Yankees have some injuries to key personnel. Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Gil are out. But they have plenty of good players available.
Aaron Judge is hitting a gobsmacking .391/1.248 with 21 home runs, 50 RBI’s in 58 games, and a WAR of 4.7. The next closest Yankee is Anthony Volpe at 1.8.
Paul Goldschmidt is still raking at age 37 with a line of .333/.874. He only has 6 home runs in 216 AB’s however. His expected BA is .302 so he’s had some BABIP luck (.377).
In the first Guardians series Judge was 7-for-12 and Goldschmidt 6-for-11. Between the two they had 13 of the Yankees’ 27 hits. The rest of the team hit .175.
Ben Rice is hitting .250/.875 with 12 home runs and 25 RBI’s. Trent Grisham is hitting .253/.865 with 13 home runs and 26 RBI’s. I don’t know how anybody with 12-13 home runs has only 25-26 RBI’s. Must be because they’re hitting .171 and .206 with RISP and hitting mostly solo home runs.
The key to beating the Yankees is to keep Judge, Grisham, and Rice in the ball park and then getting the guys that come up after them. Those three have half the team’s home runs.
The Yankees are not the youngest team nor the fastest on the bases. With RISP and two out the Yankees are hitting .217 against .259 overall.
The Yankees are 3rd in runs per game, 2nd in OPS, 1st in ISO, home run percentage, and extra base hit percentage. They always have sluggers. They are also first in walk percentage but 19th in strikeout percentage. They are 1st in wRC+ at 130.
The Yankees have nine players with an OPS over .700 so they have a deep lineup. For example, C Austin Wells is hitting .212 but he has 9 home runs and more RBI’s than Goldschmidt, Rice, and Grisham. You can't relax just because you got past Judge and Goldschmidt with no damage.
Moving to run prevention, the Yankees are 9th in ERA and 7th in WHIP. They’re 6th in team defense according to Fangraphs’ system.
The Guardians are 12-12 over their last 24 games, although their schedule has been more demanding with series against the Dodgers, Tigers, Twins, Brewers, and Phillies in that stretch. The Guardians are 19-15 against teams .500 and over while the Yankees are 22-15. One encouraging number is the Guardians are 14-5 against the AL Central.
Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana were scorching hot in May. In 14 games since May 17, Nolan Jones is batting .350. He has seven hits in his last 13 at-bats with RISP.
The matchups:
Tuesday: Logan Allen v. Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.60)
Weds: Tanner Bibee v. Clarke Schmidt (2-2, 3.95)
Thurs: Luis Ortiz v. Max Fried (7-1, 1.92)
This will be a tough series not only because they’re playing a hot team on the road, but because the Guardians will be facing two lefties in Rodon and Fried. The G’s are 3-8 against lefty starters and Rodon and Fried are very, very good. The Guards have an OPS of .633 against lefties and .707 against right-handers.
The Yankees are hitting .270/.851 against lefties (.255/.798 against righties) so Allen will have a big challenge on his hands. Lefties are hitting .350/.938 off him while righties are hitting .260/.717. Since Judge and Goldschmidt hit right-handed I suppose that favors Allen. But Grisham, Rice, Bellinger, and Wells hit left-handed so Allen needs to figure out how to attack lefties more effectively.
Rodon has a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts. In his start against the Guardians in April he allowed one run on 4 hits in 7 innings. Right-handed batters are hitting .143/.499 against him. The first three times through the order batters are hitting .162, .163, and .169 so it’s not like he gets any easier the more you see him.
Allen, OTOH, has a line of .400/1.077 the third time batters face him so he’s good for twice through the order at most. I expect he’ll go to the bullpen when Bieber is ready.
The best matchup for the Guardians is Wednesday with Bibee against Clarke Schmidt. The Guardians got 5 runs in 4 innings off Schmidt in Cleveland while Bibee held the Yankees to 2 runs in 6 innings.
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