2025 Season | Series #21 | Reds @ Guardians | June 9-11, 2025

I wouldn’t get that specific, e.g. scapegoat a single coach for what appears to be a systemic issue.
On that topic can we talk about how absolutely terrible our system is at producing guys who have a chance against LHP?

Time and time again, our solution is to throw righties with reverse splits against major league lefties hoping for a miracle. How's that supposed to work?
 
There's this guy in AAA who just hit 2 HRs today and now has a 1.144 OPS. He also hits right-handed.
It’s quite a step up to MLB pitching and parks but definitely a stellar reminder.
 
We need to start hitting home runs because every freaking ball hit in the air that doesn't leave the yard is caught. The Reds made two fantastic catches tonight and the Astros were doing the same thing.

Fry took ball 4 in the 9th but the ump blew the call and he then grounded into a double play. If the ump calls it a ball there are two on, nobody out, and Jose singles to center. Unbelievable.

But like I said in the preview with Abbott pitching we have no chance. We can't beat even bad left-handers and against elite ones we can't even score one run in 9 innings.

That being said, in 6 starts in May Abbott gave up two earned runs for an 0.55 ERA, so it's not like he can't pitch. The only way we win this one is if the home plate ump doesn't screw us in the 9th. I wish we had the pitch challenge system; it probably changes the outcome of the game.

But give Abbott credit for pitching a great game and the Reds for having an exceptional defensive outfield. We had a great throw by Nolan Jones to get a runner by an eyelash and a diving catch of a bunt by Santana. Great pitching and defense by both teams.

Cecconi came in with a BAA of .121 the first time through the order and .382 the second time. Sure enough, the Reds were 0-for-9 the first time and 4-for-8 with a walk the second time through. They stopped chasing his curve ball below the zone and when he got behind he started throwing fastballs down the middle. Three of the four hits were fastballs middle-middle, the other was a curve at the knees that De La Cruz grounded up the middle.

He still went 5 innings with 1 run allowed which is not a bad outing at all.

In June the Guardians have scored 23 runs in 9 games. Unbelievable. Angel Martinez struck out on yet another curve ball in the dirt on an 0-2 count. Can they give him the "take" sign on 0-2? He's never going to see an 0-2 pitch in the zone the rest of the season.
 
Last edited:
That's the way it's going. Ball 4 called strike one followed by double play followed by single, which would have scored a run, followed by fly ball caught at the fence a few feet short of tying or winning the game. Sigh.
About the size of it. Cecconi pitches game one instead of game two, we win easily. This is what happens when you're in a funk, you get good pitching on a night you don't score, get indifferent pitching when you manage to put some runs on the board. And your opponents seem to make every single freaking play when it's most needed and our pitchers can't seem to get a called strike when they need it. We're not buried yet--ok, the division's lost probably--as the wild card race is definitely going to be quite wild. Hope we can hang in there because it will be fun to be a part of the scramble. I still think the team's best play is ahead of it.
 
Game 3 preview:

A battle of lefties as Logan Allen takes on Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.21). Lodolo is a 27-year-old lefty with a career record of 19-18. His ERA was 2.10 in April, 4.01 in May, and in his only June start he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings. In seven starts on the road his ERA is a brilliant 1.25, so I don't expect the Guardians to score any runs off him.

Lodolo has an extreme reverse split as lefties are hitting .347/.873 off him versus .216/.635 by right-handers. In his last six starts he's given up just 12 earned runs so it's unlikely he'll allow any today, especially since Vogt will stack the order with right-handed hitters. The Reds relievers had yesterday off courtesy of Andrew Abbott so their bullpen will be ready to go. Could we see back-to-back shutouts?

Current Guardians are hitting .385/.948 off him with Jose 4-for-5 with a home run and Santana 2-for-3. The team OBP is .448. However, Lodolo is pitching the best ball of his career this season, much better than previously. He did not face the Guardians in the first series.

Allen is 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA. He did not face the Reds in Cincinnati. The Reds are only hitting .214/.635 against lefties so Allen has that in his favor. Since the Guardians can't hit lefties to save their lives this could be another close, low scoring game.

Left-handed hitters are batting .326/.877 against Allen. Both these pitchers have reverse splits.

With nobody on base opponents are hitting .324/.878 against Allen. Once there are runners on he gets serious and holds batters to a line of .236/.656. His OPS is over 200 points better with runners on. Maybe if he pitched from the stretch all the time like Cecconi it would help because he sucks pitching from a windup and being able to focus all his attention on the hitter. So Allen is backwards in two ways; he's better against right-handed batters and he's better with runners on.

Look out if he has to face any lefties with the bases empty.

Anything the Guardians hit in the gaps or to the warning track will be caught. The Reds have a lot of range in the outfield and so far nothing has dropped. For a Guardian hitter to find the outfield grass it's going to take a line drive, a ground ball, or a bloop.
 
Angel Martinez has 4 hits in his last 41 at-bats. When he has two strikes on him he's hitting .136. On 2-2 counts he's 2-for-32 with 13 K's. On 0-2 counts he's 3-for-28 with 13 K's. When he has two strikes on him you can see the fear of taking a called strike three. He chases constantly and the numbers reflect it. He's making some nice defensive plays at 2nd base, though.

Manzardo is hitting .188 since the first three games of the season when he went 5-for-11. The pitchers know how to get him out now. He is 4-for-33.

Steven Kwan is 1-for-18 this year against the Reds and we get another lefty today.

The third time batters face Logan Allen in a game they're hitting .395/1.100. Once they've seen all his pitches it's all over. Can't wait until Bieber gets back and Allen goes to the bullpen where he belongs. He'd be there already if not for the injury to Ben Lively.

Cecconi looked very good through the first three innings but the second time through the order the Reds went 4-for-8 with a walk. He looks like a right-handed Logan Allen at this point. They're both guys who depend on precise location the first time through the order to be successful but they struggle the second and third time they have to face hitters. They're both extremely competitive and do a good job with runners on base.

Runners on: Cecconi .206/.690, Allen .236/.656
First time faced in a game: Cecconi .095/.298, Allen .228/.619
Second time faced in a game: Cecconi .405/1.251, Allen .278/.751

Once hitters have seen them one time they make adjustments. Yesterday Cecconi had 8 strikeouts through 4 innings because the Reds were chasing pitches out of the zone. But he couldn't get them to chase the second time through. They had seen those pitches and laid off them. He fell behind in counts and started grooving fastballs. He needs to find a way to get hitters out the second time by making them swing at strikes and make weak contact. Same for Allen.

The one difference I've seen is that Cecconi can run his fastball up to 96-97 whereas Allen tops out at 92.

The Reds have the lowest swing percentage in baseball so they are very, very selective. Their chase percentage is the second lowest so you have to throw strikes. You might get them to chase pitches out of the zone the first time like Cecconi did yesterday, but the second time you need to throw strikes on the edges of the zone. Benson's double yesterday came on a 3-2 fastball right down the middle. He scored the only run of the game when the next batter singled on a 2-1 fastball dead center of the zone.

Better to walk a guy than throw a fastball middle-middle.
 
Last edited:
Angel Martinez has 4 hits in his last 41 at-bats. When he has two strikes on him he's hitting .136. On 2-2 counts he's 2-for-32 with 13 K's. On 0-2 counts he's 3-for-28 with 13 K's. When he has two strikes on him you can see the fear of taking a called strike three. He chases constantly and the numbers reflect it. He's making some nice defensive plays at 2nd base, though.

Manzardo is hitting .188 since the first three games of the season when he went 5-for-11. The pitchers know how to get him out now. He is 4-for-33.

Steven Kwan is 1-for-18 this year against the Reds and we get another lefty today.

The third time batters face Logan Allen in a game they're hitting .395/1.100. Once they've seen all his pitches it's all over. Can't wait until Bieber gets back and Allen goes to the bullpen where he belongs. He'd be there already if not for the injury to Ben Lively.

Cecconi looked very good through the first three innings but the second time through the order the Reds went 4-for-8 with a walk. He looks like a right-handed Logan Allen at this point. They're both guys who depend on precise location the first time through the order to be successful but they struggle the second and third time they have to face hitters. They're both extremely competitive and do a good job with runners on base.

Runners on: Cecconi .206/.690, Allen .236/.656
First time faced in a game: Cecconi .095/.298, Allen .228/.619
Second time faced in a game: Cecconi .405/1.251, Allen .278/.751

Once hitters have seen them one time they make adjustments. Yesterday Cecconi had 8 strikeouts through 4 innings because the Reds were chasing pitches out of the zone. But he couldn't get them to chase the second time through. They had seen those pitches and laid off them. He fell behind in counts and started grooving fastballs. He needs to find a way to get hitters out the second time by making them swing at strikes and make weak contact. Same for Allen.

The one difference I've seen is that Cecconi can run his fastball up to 96-97 whereas Allen tops out at 92.

The Reds have the lowest swing percentage in baseball so they are very, very selective. Their chase percentage is the second lowest so you have to throw strikes. You might get them to chase pitches out of the zone the first time like Cecconi did yesterday, but the second time you need to throw strikes on the edges of the zone. Benson's double yesterday came on a 3-2 fastball right down the middle. He scored the only run of the game when the next batter singled on a 2-1 fastball dead center of the zone.

Better to walk a guy than throw a fastball middle-middle.

Maybe we should just combine these two and not use the bullpen that day? Lol
 
Back
Top