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Here we go, the Guardians and the White Sox back at it, this time with a trip to the ALCS on the line. The White Sox won the season series 7-6 and outscored the Guardians 58-57. It was as close as it gets.
However, the Guardians have been a much more potent team offensively after the trade deadline when they acquired Adell and Lowe. They got a huge boost from Steven Kwan, who ditched his attempt to become a lift and pull hitter and went back to what he does best. Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez came off the injured list about the same time.
So looking at these teams since the trade deadline, the Guardians are 28-21 while the Sox are 27-26, including their sweep of the Astros. The Sox averaged 5.06 runs per game (including the playoffs) to the Guardians 4.73.
The Guardians lead in ERA 3.82 to 4.39.
The Guardians have the better batting average since the deadline (.255 to .232) and they strike out less (17.7% vs 24.9%). The Sox lead in home runs 65 to 53. On-base percentage and slugging percentage are almost dead even.
The Sox have some players who have been swinging the bats extremely well since the trade deadline; Grichuk (166 wRC+), Vargas (147), Peters (139), Teel (136), Meidroth (133), and Antonnaci (121). They also have very dangerous bats in Murakami (35 HR’s this year) and Colson Montgomery (33). The Sox scored 13 runs in two games against the Astros.
The Guardians have a 4.28 ERA against the Sox but if you eliminate guys who are not on the roster like Holderman and Yoho and also Cecconi, who is unlikely to pitch with the outcome in doubt, the ERA of the pitchers likely to pitch when it matters is 3.45.
Anthony Kay started four times against the Guardians and had a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. The lefty averaged just 5 innings per start but he was very effective. Sean Burke was even better with a 1.04 ERA over 17.1 innings. Davis Martin started two games with a 3.72 ERA. In four of the 13 games the White Sox used openers.
Eric Fedde, a veteran right-hander, pitched 10.1 innings against the Guards this year with a 2.61 ERA, despite giving up 13 hits and 4 walks. 17 baserunners but just 3 earned runs. He was an escape artist.They could go with him instead of Martin.
Kay started 31 games, Davis 28, and Burke 27. Nobody else started more than 15 as the Sox used 19 different starters, although some were openers.
For the Guardians Parker Messick has a 2.81 ERA against the Sox in four starts and Gavin Williams has a 3.98 ERA, also in four starts. They could start 4 games if it goes 5.
Game 1 preview:
Hagen Smith, a 23-year-old lefty, will open Game 1. In three appearances he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing 2 hits and 2 runs. He was pretty wild, walking 6, but he struck out 8. When the Guardians weren’t drawing walks they hit .105 against him.
Hopefully he’ll be nervous and walk some batters in the first inning. I assume he’ll be opening for Anthony Kay, whose last start was Sunday, giving him five days of rest. He made a relief appearance Weds against Houston but only threw 11 pitches, so that was like a normal bullpen session.
They could also go with a straight bullpen game and have Kay start Monday and Burke Wednesday, but why would they do that because Burke would only get one start. I expect it will go five; these teams have been dead even all year.
The Sox have seen a lot of Parker Messick; 25.2 innings to be exact. Randall Grichuk, who murders lefties, is 5-for-12 off him with 2 doubles and a triple. Chase Meidroth is 4-for-15 and switch hitter Braden Montgomery is 2-for-6 with a home run and 2 walks. The rest of the team is hitting .156. Tommy Pham homered as did Miguel Vargas, who is 2-for-14 against Messick.
So there you have it. The Guardians have somewhat better pitching since the trade deadline while the Sox hit more homers, strike out more, and have scored a few more runs. The Guardians have had five days off to prepare but the Sox have had two days off so they should be well rested. Obviously the Guardians have the home field advantage and they were 4-3 against the Sox in Cleveland.
The X factor might be Jose Ramirez. Jose hit .198 in September with 14 of his 18 hits being singles. Whether six days of rest will help his surgically repaired wrist is the question. Will Jose return with a vengeance and punish the White Sox like he has done in the past or will he continue to muddle along at the Mendoza line with an occasional single and shaky defense?
Gavin Williams will apparently start Monday which means he will have 8 days between starts. In the past his command really suffered with that long a rest. Pitching on the 9th day against the Pirates in July he gave up 5 runs, including 3 homers. He obviously pitched in the simulated games this week so hopefully he’ll be sharp.
If a well-rested Messick and Williams can win the first two games in Cleveland it will put tremendous pressure on the White Sox as they would have to win three straight. If we split then it's a 3-game series with two games in Chicago and the White Sox have been extremely good at home.
However, the Guardians have been a much more potent team offensively after the trade deadline when they acquired Adell and Lowe. They got a huge boost from Steven Kwan, who ditched his attempt to become a lift and pull hitter and went back to what he does best. Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez came off the injured list about the same time.
So looking at these teams since the trade deadline, the Guardians are 28-21 while the Sox are 27-26, including their sweep of the Astros. The Sox averaged 5.06 runs per game (including the playoffs) to the Guardians 4.73.
The Guardians lead in ERA 3.82 to 4.39.
The Guardians have the better batting average since the deadline (.255 to .232) and they strike out less (17.7% vs 24.9%). The Sox lead in home runs 65 to 53. On-base percentage and slugging percentage are almost dead even.
The Sox have some players who have been swinging the bats extremely well since the trade deadline; Grichuk (166 wRC+), Vargas (147), Peters (139), Teel (136), Meidroth (133), and Antonnaci (121). They also have very dangerous bats in Murakami (35 HR’s this year) and Colson Montgomery (33). The Sox scored 13 runs in two games against the Astros.
The Guardians have a 4.28 ERA against the Sox but if you eliminate guys who are not on the roster like Holderman and Yoho and also Cecconi, who is unlikely to pitch with the outcome in doubt, the ERA of the pitchers likely to pitch when it matters is 3.45.
Anthony Kay started four times against the Guardians and had a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. The lefty averaged just 5 innings per start but he was very effective. Sean Burke was even better with a 1.04 ERA over 17.1 innings. Davis Martin started two games with a 3.72 ERA. In four of the 13 games the White Sox used openers.
Eric Fedde, a veteran right-hander, pitched 10.1 innings against the Guards this year with a 2.61 ERA, despite giving up 13 hits and 4 walks. 17 baserunners but just 3 earned runs. He was an escape artist.They could go with him instead of Martin.
Kay started 31 games, Davis 28, and Burke 27. Nobody else started more than 15 as the Sox used 19 different starters, although some were openers.
For the Guardians Parker Messick has a 2.81 ERA against the Sox in four starts and Gavin Williams has a 3.98 ERA, also in four starts. They could start 4 games if it goes 5.
Game 1 preview:
Hagen Smith, a 23-year-old lefty, will open Game 1. In three appearances he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing 2 hits and 2 runs. He was pretty wild, walking 6, but he struck out 8. When the Guardians weren’t drawing walks they hit .105 against him.
Hopefully he’ll be nervous and walk some batters in the first inning. I assume he’ll be opening for Anthony Kay, whose last start was Sunday, giving him five days of rest. He made a relief appearance Weds against Houston but only threw 11 pitches, so that was like a normal bullpen session.
They could also go with a straight bullpen game and have Kay start Monday and Burke Wednesday, but why would they do that because Burke would only get one start. I expect it will go five; these teams have been dead even all year.
The Sox have seen a lot of Parker Messick; 25.2 innings to be exact. Randall Grichuk, who murders lefties, is 5-for-12 off him with 2 doubles and a triple. Chase Meidroth is 4-for-15 and switch hitter Braden Montgomery is 2-for-6 with a home run and 2 walks. The rest of the team is hitting .156. Tommy Pham homered as did Miguel Vargas, who is 2-for-14 against Messick.
So there you have it. The Guardians have somewhat better pitching since the trade deadline while the Sox hit more homers, strike out more, and have scored a few more runs. The Guardians have had five days off to prepare but the Sox have had two days off so they should be well rested. Obviously the Guardians have the home field advantage and they were 4-3 against the Sox in Cleveland.
The X factor might be Jose Ramirez. Jose hit .198 in September with 14 of his 18 hits being singles. Whether six days of rest will help his surgically repaired wrist is the question. Will Jose return with a vengeance and punish the White Sox like he has done in the past or will he continue to muddle along at the Mendoza line with an occasional single and shaky defense?
Gavin Williams will apparently start Monday which means he will have 8 days between starts. In the past his command really suffered with that long a rest. Pitching on the 9th day against the Pirates in July he gave up 5 runs, including 3 homers. He obviously pitched in the simulated games this week so hopefully he’ll be sharp.
If a well-rested Messick and Williams can win the first two games in Cleveland it will put tremendous pressure on the White Sox as they would have to win three straight. If we split then it's a 3-game series with two games in Chicago and the White Sox have been extremely good at home.
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