WhoAzcue
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Sharp eyes. It's clearly wrong. Keljo is the losing pitcher in this game. He surrendered the tie-breaking homer in the sixth.
2026 Minor Leagues
- Thread starter Martyinnewyork
- Start date
The difference between all your examples is Zibin and Humphries show a ton of promise… and both are only 21…everyone you mentioned have never been in that same sort of promise conversation…they were mediocre at best out the gate. More money = longer leash… not more money = teflon.
If Zibin remains healthy this year I can almost guarantee you he’s getting protected for Rule 5. He’s 6’4 and hitting 98 at 21. Those guys don’t grow on trees. Humphries is probably the hardest throwing LH starter in the system. The start before last he was hitting 95 mph. He’s fringe but Zibin is a lock if healthy.
sportscoach
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They still have to do something that says they will be taken...
Find me the amount of players taken in the Rule 5 draft that haven't played at least in AA that actually stuck with another team? It's less than a handful if that... (Then again one off the top of my head was from our organization).
Remember they have to spend the whole season in the bigs, now big arms often translate to the bullpen easier, but with over 5 walks per 9 in Zibin, it will be hard to merit a spot in any bullpen... I don't think he is as close to being added to an MLB pen as you believe, at least on paper since he is doing that at A ball...
Campbell is likely to be at AA in the second half and that is where players as prospects go to thrive or die... If you dominate AA, especially in Akron, you likely will appear at least as a filler in the bigs at some point. Campbell also has stupid numbers at a higher level than Zibin, which includes the fact he isn't walking people... Now for both it is SSS so let's debate this at the end of the season since we truly won't know until we see how they produce in the second half...
Curley has a 29% swing rate and I'm yelling at Bazzana to get his over 40
We really don't know if he can hit if he just swings at middle middle lollipops. Will get a ton of walks and K looking that way and that's most of what I've seen of him. He looks like and behaves like a ML player, yapping at umps included.
He had a really nice swing early in a count yesterday for a double. Best I've seen from him. The batted ball data looks tidy, so there's a lot of hope, but it all comes with that huge asterisk.
Walton is rock solid, nice ISO/speed combo as advertised though he doesn't "look" fast watching him play. He reminds me of a RH version of Halpin and has almost exactly the same batted ball data as Petey in A+
Both have contact% in the mid 70s, which is only meh for their respective styles, so we're pro looking at below avg pure hitters, but that was the theme of that class. Power and tools over everything.
Meanwhile, I'll continue to lead the Schubart bandwagon. His breakout will be majestic. He's doing it the right way. Controlled, but fearless aggressive at the plate, cuts down swing a bit with 2 strikes. His SwStr% is slowly coming down, but needs to fall around 15% while his contact% needs to clear the 60% for this year (hopefully 70ish in future) to make him playable. For me, he's been one the most impressive hitters on that roster in terms of future outlook/ceiling.
Bennett Thompson is another, he's a legit C and at first I thought his hot start was just that, a BABIP fueled mirage of a decent, fringe C prospect, but I'm starting to buy in. His batted ball data fully supports his performance, it's not all luck (some of course), his LD+FB% ist well over 70%, which is elite. He's selective, but not too passive and gets to some impressive EV. Dude is a real prospect and opposing teams commenters have taken notice. I like him more than classmate Cozart.
Chourio has taken a noticable leap too. He should get to Akron as soon as the logjam in Columbus/Akron gets cleared one way or another. Quality of AB just looks tighter, more focused and results have followed. He looked very slappy last year (probably still affected by injury), but this year has clearly more pop.
We really don't know if he can hit if he just swings at middle middle lollipops. Will get a ton of walks and K looking that way and that's most of what I've seen of him. He looks like and behaves like a ML player, yapping at umps included.
He had a really nice swing early in a count yesterday for a double. Best I've seen from him. The batted ball data looks tidy, so there's a lot of hope, but it all comes with that huge asterisk.
Walton is rock solid, nice ISO/speed combo as advertised though he doesn't "look" fast watching him play. He reminds me of a RH version of Halpin and has almost exactly the same batted ball data as Petey in A+
Both have contact% in the mid 70s, which is only meh for their respective styles, so we're pro looking at below avg pure hitters, but that was the theme of that class. Power and tools over everything.
Meanwhile, I'll continue to lead the Schubart bandwagon. His breakout will be majestic. He's doing it the right way. Controlled, but fearless aggressive at the plate, cuts down swing a bit with 2 strikes. His SwStr% is slowly coming down, but needs to fall around 15% while his contact% needs to clear the 60% for this year (hopefully 70ish in future) to make him playable. For me, he's been one the most impressive hitters on that roster in terms of future outlook/ceiling.
Bennett Thompson is another, he's a legit C and at first I thought his hot start was just that, a BABIP fueled mirage of a decent, fringe C prospect, but I'm starting to buy in. His batted ball data fully supports his performance, it's not all luck (some of course), his LD+FB% ist well over 70%, which is elite. He's selective, but not too passive and gets to some impressive EV. Dude is a real prospect and opposing teams commenters have taken notice. I like him more than classmate Cozart.
Chourio has taken a noticable leap too. He should get to Akron as soon as the logjam in Columbus/Akron gets cleared one way or another. Quality of AB just looks tighter, more focused and results have followed. He looked very slappy last year (probably still affected by injury), but this year has clearly more pop.
Doughty is the best SP in the system btw. Impressive start yesterday. Allowed a couple of loud hits because he's in and around the zone a lot, but he works with his entire arsenal, has good command of it and got a lot of swing and miss. His breaking balls were unhittable.
He doesn't have an ace ceiling (probably, wouldn't rule it out yet), but his path is pretty elite if he gets to AA this season and continues to perform the way he has.
Oakie otoh, I just don't see it yet. FB was around 93 yesterday, maybe the focus is to tone it down and throw strikes, but he got hit hard a lot and didn't miss any bats (only two swing and misses in 4 innings). Hickory squad is insanely talented btw (14-4 record). That's why I don't like to spend so much and early on HS arms who's calling card is high 90s heat and at best a second pitch. Too much projection and risk. Take those later for 500K+ like Humphries or Sullivan. Always on board with those...but spending 1-2M'ish on Oakie, Clemmey, Mobley, Zibin....meeeeh
On the plus side, Oakie gets a lot of groundballs, so he should have decent RP floor if he doesn't develop as a SP. Mobley and Zibin look improved too (though both are FB pitchers and reliant on ride and pop ups). They are young and they have time to develop and the org certainly gets benefit of doubt on developing arm talents
He doesn't have an ace ceiling (probably, wouldn't rule it out yet), but his path is pretty elite if he gets to AA this season and continues to perform the way he has.
Oakie otoh, I just don't see it yet. FB was around 93 yesterday, maybe the focus is to tone it down and throw strikes, but he got hit hard a lot and didn't miss any bats (only two swing and misses in 4 innings). Hickory squad is insanely talented btw (14-4 record). That's why I don't like to spend so much and early on HS arms who's calling card is high 90s heat and at best a second pitch. Too much projection and risk. Take those later for 500K+ like Humphries or Sullivan. Always on board with those...but spending 1-2M'ish on Oakie, Clemmey, Mobley, Zibin....meeeeh
On the plus side, Oakie gets a lot of groundballs, so he should have decent RP floor if he doesn't develop as a SP. Mobley and Zibin look improved too (though both are FB pitchers and reliant on ride and pop ups). They are young and they have time to develop and the org certainly gets benefit of doubt on developing arm talents
Martyinnewyork
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Ducks and Howlers each draw 13 walks in their wins today, Captains only manage to get 8 lol!
Do you think Doughty is a better prospect than Stephens?
What’s your feelings on the 21 year old lefty Melkis Hernandez? He has one of the best curveballs in the system u there with Davenport IMO. Could be Herrin’s replacement one day?
SP Melkis Hernandez is a fringe LHP prospect with a decent 91-93mph heater. His go to plus pitch is a slider he gets a lot of swing and miss with. Control is fair with both pitches. Whatever the rest of his repertoire was is pretty bad and same velo as his slider, so he needs to develop a viable 3rd pitch or he's a pen arm at upper levels. Only 20yo, so some time left and worth following after a good, durable season.
This was my take on Melkis late last season in A Ball and he's on track. He's now used as piggyback starter, but I believe ultimately he'll end up in relief at the upper levels. If he can throw a bit harder out of the pen, he has a nice two pitch mix to succeed as a LHRP. And this system needs them.
This was my take on Melkis late last season in A Ball and he's on track. He's now used as piggyback starter, but I believe ultimately he'll end up in relief at the upper levels. If he can throw a bit harder out of the pen, he has a nice two pitch mix to succeed as a LHRP. And this system needs them.
Doughty vs Stephen
I had Doughty as a top 100 prospect and Stephwn just a tier below, ranked richgt behind him and I'd keep it that way as of now.
I prefer Doughty simply because he's on a faster age/level track and still performing. He uses all his pitches, so he's also developing the right way, not focusing on results.
Stephen is also a top prospect. He's struggles with control for the first time as a pro, but that's probably (hopefully) just a result of him working on something specific and not an effect of his injury he's coming from.
I had Doughty as a top 100 prospect and Stephwn just a tier below, ranked richgt behind him and I'd keep it that way as of now.
I prefer Doughty simply because he's on a faster age/level track and still performing. He uses all his pitches, so he's also developing the right way, not focusing on results.
Stephen is also a top prospect. He's struggles with control for the first time as a pro, but that's probably (hopefully) just a result of him working on something specific and not an effect of his injury he's coming from.
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Fangraphs ranks all the minor league players based on performance (this year only), age, and level. I don't know how accurate they are, but FWIW here are where they rank the Guardians prospects out of 3,906 total.
Top 1%: Robert Arias, Travis Bazzana
Top 1-2%: Cooper Ingle
Top 2-5%: Tolentino, Tugboat, Harrison Bodendorf, Ralphy, Miquel Flores, Chourio, Kody Huff, Juneiker Caceres, Halpin, Genao, Aaron Walton.
Top 5-10%: Khalil Watson, Franklin Gomez, Anthony Martinez, Nolan Jones, Stuart Fairchild, Luis de la Cruz, Jackson Humphries, Bennett Thompson, Khal Stephen
Just missed the top 10%: Justin Campbell, Dean Curley, Logan Allen, Nick Mitchell
Nine of the names listed above are at AAA. Tugboat, Ralphy, and Genao are at AA but could be moving up based on being in the top 5% of all minor leaguers.
I'm surprised Halpin is ranked this high as he's only hitting .250/.713 as a 24-year-old in AAA.
Top 1%: Robert Arias, Travis Bazzana
Top 1-2%: Cooper Ingle
Top 2-5%: Tolentino, Tugboat, Harrison Bodendorf, Ralphy, Miquel Flores, Chourio, Kody Huff, Juneiker Caceres, Halpin, Genao, Aaron Walton.
Top 5-10%: Khalil Watson, Franklin Gomez, Anthony Martinez, Nolan Jones, Stuart Fairchild, Luis de la Cruz, Jackson Humphries, Bennett Thompson, Khal Stephen
Just missed the top 10%: Justin Campbell, Dean Curley, Logan Allen, Nick Mitchell
Nine of the names listed above are at AAA. Tugboat, Ralphy, and Genao are at AA but could be moving up based on being in the top 5% of all minor leaguers.
I'm surprised Halpin is ranked this high as he's only hitting .250/.713 as a 24-year-old in AAA.
WhoAzcue
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Isn't it possible there's a defensive component to whatever metric they're using? Would help Tolentino as well.
