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After a well-deserved day off after 13 days without a break (during which time they were 9-4) the Guardians stay home to face the Boston Red Sox, who are in last place in the East with a 23-32 record. The Red Sox are really two teams as they are 9-19 at home and 14-13 on the road.
The Sox have had the 9th hardest schedule in the majors and are 10-17 against teams over .500. They hit lefties much better than right-handers and are 6-7 against left-handed starters versus 17-25 against right-handers. Messick is the only Guardians lefty starter in this series.
The Sox got off to a 9-17 start but are a respectable 14-15 in their last 29 games.
The Red Sox have a lot of injuries including Garrett Crochet (18-5 last year), Roman Anthony (.292/.859), Romy Gonzalez (.305/.826), and Trevor Story (.263/.741). Jarren Duran is not out, but after putting up a WAR of 8.7 in 2024 and 4.6 last year, he's at 0.9 this year after 1/3rd of the season.
I’m going to use the Red Sox away stats since they are so much better on the road. I don’t know what’s going on at Fenway, but they are averaging 3.3 runs per game there as opposed to 4.4 on the road. They rank 12th in road scoring and 29th in home scoring. It’s gotta be a mental thing, right?
From 2023-25 Fenway was ranked as the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the majors. This year it’s 24th. What the heck? Did they make the Monster 30 feet higher?
On the road the Red Sox are slightly above average in scoring. They are 8th in OPS and slugging percentage and 9th in on-base percentage. But they’re 22nd in road home run percentage (and last at Fenway!). They’ve hit just 42 home runs in 55 games. They generally need to bunch hits together to score.
Progressive is a tough park to homer in (park factor of 93) so I don’t expect too many long balls by the Sox this weekend.
Wilson Contreras has been their best hitter with a slash line of .283/.888 plus 11 HR’s and 33 RBI’s. Ceddanne Rafaela is right behind at .285/.792. He’s 2nd on the team with 23 RBI’s. Wilyer Abreu is hitting .285/.779 and nobody else has an OPS over .710.
On the pitching side the Sox rank 12th in road ERA so they have been on the high side of average in both scoring and preventing runs on the road. They are 6th in opponent OBP so they do a great job of preventing base runners but they are last in home run percentage on the road. They are 7th in walk percentage so they throw strikes. The Guardians need to be aggressive.
The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 3.06, second only to the Dodgers. Their team ERA for May is 2.96, 4th best in the majors.
Pitching matchups:
Cecconi v. Brayan Bello (2-5, 6.43) on Friday
Messick v. Sonny Gray (5-1, 3.27) on Saturday
Bibee v. Ranger Suarez (2-3, 3.02) on Sunday
Suarez is a lefty while Bello and Gray are right-handed.
Game 1 preview:
Brayan Bello is a 27-year-old right-hander with a career record of 41-41 and a 4.28 ERA. This year he’s really struggling as he has allowed 67 hits and 21 walks in 49 innings for an elevated WHIP of 1.80. However, he has righted the ship recently. At the end of April his ERA was a whopping 9.12, but in four May starts he’s allowed 1, 1, 7, and 0 runs for a 3.47 ERA. He’s been outstanding in 3 of his last 4 starts.
His road ERA is 8.01 in 5 starts. He has 3 relief appearances this year. As a starter his opponent slash line is .370/1.082. Lefties are hitting .349/1.031 against him. All his numbers are bad, but most of that is due to an awful March/April. He’s been great in May except for the one bad start. He shut down Detroit, Philly, and the Twins while getting hammered by Atlanta. The Braves rank 3rd in scoring.
Slade Cecconi has also righted his ship. After his first 7 starts he had a 6.56 ERA, but in his last four starts he’s allowed 2, 0, 2, and 3 runs averaging 5.4 innings per start. Not great, but he’s giving the team a chance. The Guardians are 3-1 in those starts with the only loss by a 3-0 score.
Cecconi is not dominating as he has allowed 22 hits and 7 walks in those 21.2 innings, but you can’t argue with a 2.91 ERA from your #5 starter. Hope he can keep it up. I believe he is throwing more fastballs and junked his slider, which was getting crushed.
The Guardians have failed to score 4 runs in 8 straight games but they won 5 of them thanks to great pitching. They’ve scored 18 runs in their last 8 games and one run was the ghost runner, so they’re averaging barely 2 runs per game. They need to start hitting better and maybe the day off will be what the doctor ordered.
The Sox have had the 9th hardest schedule in the majors and are 10-17 against teams over .500. They hit lefties much better than right-handers and are 6-7 against left-handed starters versus 17-25 against right-handers. Messick is the only Guardians lefty starter in this series.
The Sox got off to a 9-17 start but are a respectable 14-15 in their last 29 games.
The Red Sox have a lot of injuries including Garrett Crochet (18-5 last year), Roman Anthony (.292/.859), Romy Gonzalez (.305/.826), and Trevor Story (.263/.741). Jarren Duran is not out, but after putting up a WAR of 8.7 in 2024 and 4.6 last year, he's at 0.9 this year after 1/3rd of the season.
I’m going to use the Red Sox away stats since they are so much better on the road. I don’t know what’s going on at Fenway, but they are averaging 3.3 runs per game there as opposed to 4.4 on the road. They rank 12th in road scoring and 29th in home scoring. It’s gotta be a mental thing, right?
From 2023-25 Fenway was ranked as the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the majors. This year it’s 24th. What the heck? Did they make the Monster 30 feet higher?
On the road the Red Sox are slightly above average in scoring. They are 8th in OPS and slugging percentage and 9th in on-base percentage. But they’re 22nd in road home run percentage (and last at Fenway!). They’ve hit just 42 home runs in 55 games. They generally need to bunch hits together to score.
Progressive is a tough park to homer in (park factor of 93) so I don’t expect too many long balls by the Sox this weekend.
Wilson Contreras has been their best hitter with a slash line of .283/.888 plus 11 HR’s and 33 RBI’s. Ceddanne Rafaela is right behind at .285/.792. He’s 2nd on the team with 23 RBI’s. Wilyer Abreu is hitting .285/.779 and nobody else has an OPS over .710.
On the pitching side the Sox rank 12th in road ERA so they have been on the high side of average in both scoring and preventing runs on the road. They are 6th in opponent OBP so they do a great job of preventing base runners but they are last in home run percentage on the road. They are 7th in walk percentage so they throw strikes. The Guardians need to be aggressive.
The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 3.06, second only to the Dodgers. Their team ERA for May is 2.96, 4th best in the majors.
Pitching matchups:
Cecconi v. Brayan Bello (2-5, 6.43) on Friday
Messick v. Sonny Gray (5-1, 3.27) on Saturday
Bibee v. Ranger Suarez (2-3, 3.02) on Sunday
Suarez is a lefty while Bello and Gray are right-handed.
Game 1 preview:
Brayan Bello is a 27-year-old right-hander with a career record of 41-41 and a 4.28 ERA. This year he’s really struggling as he has allowed 67 hits and 21 walks in 49 innings for an elevated WHIP of 1.80. However, he has righted the ship recently. At the end of April his ERA was a whopping 9.12, but in four May starts he’s allowed 1, 1, 7, and 0 runs for a 3.47 ERA. He’s been outstanding in 3 of his last 4 starts.
His road ERA is 8.01 in 5 starts. He has 3 relief appearances this year. As a starter his opponent slash line is .370/1.082. Lefties are hitting .349/1.031 against him. All his numbers are bad, but most of that is due to an awful March/April. He’s been great in May except for the one bad start. He shut down Detroit, Philly, and the Twins while getting hammered by Atlanta. The Braves rank 3rd in scoring.
Slade Cecconi has also righted his ship. After his first 7 starts he had a 6.56 ERA, but in his last four starts he’s allowed 2, 0, 2, and 3 runs averaging 5.4 innings per start. Not great, but he’s giving the team a chance. The Guardians are 3-1 in those starts with the only loss by a 3-0 score.
Cecconi is not dominating as he has allowed 22 hits and 7 walks in those 21.2 innings, but you can’t argue with a 2.91 ERA from your #5 starter. Hope he can keep it up. I believe he is throwing more fastballs and junked his slider, which was getting crushed.
The Guardians have failed to score 4 runs in 8 straight games but they won 5 of them thanks to great pitching. They’ve scored 18 runs in their last 8 games and one run was the ghost runner, so they’re averaging barely 2 runs per game. They need to start hitting better and maybe the day off will be what the doctor ordered.
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