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After finishing May with an outstanding 18-11 record it’s show time as the Guardians head to the Big Apple to take on the Yankees for the first time this season. We also play them in Cleveland in a series starting next Monday and that will be it until a potential playoff matchup. Six of our next 9 games are against the Yankees and then it's sayonara until October (maybe).
The Guardians have lost 5 of their last 8 games and have scored 4 runs or fewer in each of their last 12 games. Not a good time to play the Yankees when you’re not hitting because they score a lot of runs.
The Yankees started 26-12 but have since gone 10-11. However, they have won 6 of 7, mostly against KC and the A’s. They are 17-9 at home while the Guardians are 17-13 on the road. For the season the Yankees have a run differential of +98 while the Guardians are +1.
Obviously the Guardians’ pitching is going to have to step up because the Yankees average 5.7 runs per game at home, highest in the majors. In Yankee Stadium they rank 1st in OPS, slugging percentage, isolated power, home run percentage, extra base hit percentage, and walk percentage. They are average at strikeout percentage and BABIP.
Ben Rice has outhit Aaron Judge so far with a slash line of .306/1.056, 17 home runs, and 44 RBI’s. Judge is not far behind at .248/.907 with 17 HR’s and 38 RBI’s. Cody Bellinger is at .271/.855 with 38 RBI’s. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .261/.860 and former Indian Amed Rosario is hitting .273/.843. Giancarlo Stanton is injured.
The Yankees have a team OPS of .824 at home against .729 on the road, a whopping 95 point difference. With them leading the majors in home run percentage at home I’m very happy that Bibee will not be facing them. I'm sure he is too.
Their pitching is good. Their overall team ERA is ranked 9th, however, their starters rank 1st at 2.97. Very impressive. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon recently returned to the rotation and they have been excellent. Both will pitch against the Guardians in this series. If they had been with the team since Opening Day I'm sure the Yankees would rank much higher than 9th in team ERA.
Fangraphs ranks the Yankees 9th defensively.
Pitching matchups:
Cantillo v. Cam Schittler (7-2, 1.50 ERA) on Tuesday
Williams v. Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.00) on Wednesday
Cecconi v. Carlos Rodon (1-2, 3.32) on Thursday
Rodon is the only lefty we’ll be facing.
Game 1 preview:
Cam Schittler is a 25-year-old right-hander who is the favorite to win the Cy Young according to a recent poll of MLB executives. The Yankees are 9-3 in his 12 starts. Schittler has allowed 6 earned runs in his last 8 starts, striking out 51 in 36.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .185/.481 off him. On 0-2 counts hitters are 2-for-32. Don’t let him get ahead in the count. On all two-strike counts batters are hitting .110. They are 4-for-38 (.105) with RISP.
Joey Cantillo goes for the Guardians. The Yankees are 14-5 against left-handed starters and have an OPS of .806 versus .753 against right-handers. IOW, Cantillo is going to have a somewhat tougher go than Williams and Cecconi.
Cantillo is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA, which are solid numbers, but he hasn’t faced an offense like the Yankees yet. Joey was inconsistent in May, allowing 4 runs in 3 of his starts. In his other two May starts he allowed 0 and 1 run against the weak hitting Tigers and Angels.
The third time through the batting order opponents are hitting .345/1.009 against Cantillo, so he needs to figure out how to get outs when batters have seen all his pitches multiple times. The most impressive thing about Cantillo is his ability to get out of trouble; opponents are 1-for-21 with RISP and two out.
Game 1 looks like an easy win for the Yankees as they have a potential Cy Young winner who has been almost impossible to score on recently pitching against a team that hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in any of the last 12 games. Cantillo being a lefty doesn’t help as the Yankees are 14-5 against them.
Hopefully Angel Martinez can play on Tuesday. No word on when Kwan might be back but based on his tweet it doesn’t look good.
By the way, the Yankees scored 13 runs in one inning the other day. They scored 10 runs before an out was recorded and the first 12 hitters reached base for the first time since 1949.
I just don't want to get anybody's hopes up that we might sweep this series. Our best shot to not get swept is probably Gavin's start.
The Guardians have lost 5 of their last 8 games and have scored 4 runs or fewer in each of their last 12 games. Not a good time to play the Yankees when you’re not hitting because they score a lot of runs.
The Yankees started 26-12 but have since gone 10-11. However, they have won 6 of 7, mostly against KC and the A’s. They are 17-9 at home while the Guardians are 17-13 on the road. For the season the Yankees have a run differential of +98 while the Guardians are +1.
Obviously the Guardians’ pitching is going to have to step up because the Yankees average 5.7 runs per game at home, highest in the majors. In Yankee Stadium they rank 1st in OPS, slugging percentage, isolated power, home run percentage, extra base hit percentage, and walk percentage. They are average at strikeout percentage and BABIP.
Ben Rice has outhit Aaron Judge so far with a slash line of .306/1.056, 17 home runs, and 44 RBI’s. Judge is not far behind at .248/.907 with 17 HR’s and 38 RBI’s. Cody Bellinger is at .271/.855 with 38 RBI’s. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .261/.860 and former Indian Amed Rosario is hitting .273/.843. Giancarlo Stanton is injured.
The Yankees have a team OPS of .824 at home against .729 on the road, a whopping 95 point difference. With them leading the majors in home run percentage at home I’m very happy that Bibee will not be facing them. I'm sure he is too.
Their pitching is good. Their overall team ERA is ranked 9th, however, their starters rank 1st at 2.97. Very impressive. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon recently returned to the rotation and they have been excellent. Both will pitch against the Guardians in this series. If they had been with the team since Opening Day I'm sure the Yankees would rank much higher than 9th in team ERA.
Fangraphs ranks the Yankees 9th defensively.
Pitching matchups:
Cantillo v. Cam Schittler (7-2, 1.50 ERA) on Tuesday
Williams v. Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.00) on Wednesday
Cecconi v. Carlos Rodon (1-2, 3.32) on Thursday
Rodon is the only lefty we’ll be facing.
Game 1 preview:
Cam Schittler is a 25-year-old right-hander who is the favorite to win the Cy Young according to a recent poll of MLB executives. The Yankees are 9-3 in his 12 starts. Schittler has allowed 6 earned runs in his last 8 starts, striking out 51 in 36.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .185/.481 off him. On 0-2 counts hitters are 2-for-32. Don’t let him get ahead in the count. On all two-strike counts batters are hitting .110. They are 4-for-38 (.105) with RISP.
Joey Cantillo goes for the Guardians. The Yankees are 14-5 against left-handed starters and have an OPS of .806 versus .753 against right-handers. IOW, Cantillo is going to have a somewhat tougher go than Williams and Cecconi.
Cantillo is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA, which are solid numbers, but he hasn’t faced an offense like the Yankees yet. Joey was inconsistent in May, allowing 4 runs in 3 of his starts. In his other two May starts he allowed 0 and 1 run against the weak hitting Tigers and Angels.
The third time through the batting order opponents are hitting .345/1.009 against Cantillo, so he needs to figure out how to get outs when batters have seen all his pitches multiple times. The most impressive thing about Cantillo is his ability to get out of trouble; opponents are 1-for-21 with RISP and two out.
Game 1 looks like an easy win for the Yankees as they have a potential Cy Young winner who has been almost impossible to score on recently pitching against a team that hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in any of the last 12 games. Cantillo being a lefty doesn’t help as the Yankees are 14-5 against them.
Hopefully Angel Martinez can play on Tuesday. No word on when Kwan might be back but based on his tweet it doesn’t look good.
By the way, the Yankees scored 13 runs in one inning the other day. They scored 10 runs before an out was recorded and the first 12 hitters reached base for the first time since 1949.
I just don't want to get anybody's hopes up that we might sweep this series. Our best shot to not get swept is probably Gavin's start.
