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After splitting with the White Sox the Guardians move on to the Twin Cities for their second-to-last series of the first half. The Guardians are 47-44 while the Twins are 44-47. These teams played a series in Cleveland in early May which the Twins won 2-1 with a cumulative score of 11-11. Pitching prevailed in chilly northern Ohio.
Both teams had Monday off. Byron Buxton, who is hitting .271/.904 with 25 home runs and was named to the All-Star team, took himself out of Sunday’s game with hip discomfort.
Buxton missed all three games of the midweek series against the Astros after an MRI revealed a right hip impingement.
I don’t know what Buxton’s status is for the Cleveland series. He said he left the game as a precaution in the first inning, not wanting to risk reaggravating the injury.
C Ryan Jeffers, who is leading the Twins with a .949 OPS, has been out with a fractured hamate bone since May 18 but is set to return after going 5-for-11 in his rehab assignment. But he hasn’t faced major league pitching in six weeks.
The Twins are 17-17 in their last 34 games and have been just under the .500 mark since starting 12-12. They are 22-23 at home while the Guardians are 23-22 on the road.
Trevor Larnach is having an excelllent season at .292/.833, but in his last 16 games his slash line is .417/1.137. Josh Bell is also red hot with a line of .314/1.056 in his last 19 games. Kody Clemens is hitting .245/.799 with 16 home runs while Ryan Kreidler is hitting .256/.770.
The Twins haven't missed Jeffers too much because C Victor Caratini is hitting .322/.971 in his last 103 plate appearances. The Twins, like the White Sox, have a lot of good hitters. If Buxton can’t play or if his hip impacts his swing, that would be huge.
The Twins rank 6th in the majors in runs per game, averaging 5.1 at home. They are 7th in slugging and OPS, 8th in home run percentage, and 9th in extra base hit percentage.
Pitching is their Achilles heel as they rank 27th in team ERA, 24th in WHIP, and 19th in home run percentage. Defensively they are bottom five as they rank 26th in both overall defense and opponents’ BABIP. They’re 27th in outs above average and last in defensive runs saved. If the Guardians can put the ball in play they should be able to get hits.
They should also be able to run wild on the Twins, who rank 29th in opponents’ base stealing success rate at 85%. The Guardians are 4th in stolen base success rate (82%) so this is the perfect opportunity to steal a ton of bases even if Jose is sitting this one out.
The Guardians are 28th in throwing out base stealers, despite Bailey and Hedges, so we could see a lot of running in this series. However, the Twins are 29th in stolen base attempts per game. They’re a team that prefers to wait for the big hits.
The Twins are last in bullpen ERA at 5.28, so running up the starters’ pitch counts and getting to the bullpen early will be key.
The first series saw both teams scoring 11 runs in 3 games but I think we’ll see more runs from both teams in this one. The weather is warmer than it was in Cleveland in early May and the baseballs have less drag since the beginning of June according to testing.
Pitching matchups:
Cantillo v. Taj Bradley, RHP, (7-3, 3.86 ERA) on Tuesday
Cecconi v. Connor Prielipp, LHP, (2-5, 4.96) on Wednesday
Williams v. Mike Paredes, RHP, (0-2, 4.60) on Thursday (afternoon game)
Prielipp and Paredes are rookies who made their first major league appearances this year. Paredes has only pitching 30 innings.
Game 1 preview:
Joey Cantillo (7-3, 3.86) has been outstanding in his last four starts, allowing 5 runs on 15 hits in 24 innings for a 1.88 ERA. He did not face the Twins in Cleveland. Buxton is 2-for-6 off him with two doubles.
Taj Bradley has been nearly as good with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 hits in 17 innings with 22 K’s. The Guardians have just 19 at-bats against him with Schneeman going 3-for-5 with two doubles.
As a team the Twins have an OPS of .669 against lefties versus .766 against right-handers, so that will be in Cantillo’s favor. If Buxton can’t go Tuesday that will help even more. Buxton leads the Twins with 4 home runs off lefties. Jeffers (.895), Austin Martin (.802), and Buxton (.778) are the only Twins with an OPS over .700 against LHP’s. Cantillo will be pitchng with an extra day of rest after the off day Monday.
The Twins’ starters for the last two games are rookies with ERA’s of 4.96 and 4.60 so Bradley is their best starter this series. The Twins’ best starter is All-Star Joe Ryan, but he pitched Sunday and will miss this series. Cantillo versus Bradley looks like the Twins' best pitching matchup on paper although Gavin Williams has been inconsistent lately.
Three games against the Twins and three against the Marlins on the road to close out the first half, then the Guardians should be getting Jose and Angel back soon after the break.
Both teams had Monday off. Byron Buxton, who is hitting .271/.904 with 25 home runs and was named to the All-Star team, took himself out of Sunday’s game with hip discomfort.
Buxton missed all three games of the midweek series against the Astros after an MRI revealed a right hip impingement.
I don’t know what Buxton’s status is for the Cleveland series. He said he left the game as a precaution in the first inning, not wanting to risk reaggravating the injury.
C Ryan Jeffers, who is leading the Twins with a .949 OPS, has been out with a fractured hamate bone since May 18 but is set to return after going 5-for-11 in his rehab assignment. But he hasn’t faced major league pitching in six weeks.
The Twins are 17-17 in their last 34 games and have been just under the .500 mark since starting 12-12. They are 22-23 at home while the Guardians are 23-22 on the road.
Trevor Larnach is having an excelllent season at .292/.833, but in his last 16 games his slash line is .417/1.137. Josh Bell is also red hot with a line of .314/1.056 in his last 19 games. Kody Clemens is hitting .245/.799 with 16 home runs while Ryan Kreidler is hitting .256/.770.
The Twins haven't missed Jeffers too much because C Victor Caratini is hitting .322/.971 in his last 103 plate appearances. The Twins, like the White Sox, have a lot of good hitters. If Buxton can’t play or if his hip impacts his swing, that would be huge.
The Twins rank 6th in the majors in runs per game, averaging 5.1 at home. They are 7th in slugging and OPS, 8th in home run percentage, and 9th in extra base hit percentage.
Pitching is their Achilles heel as they rank 27th in team ERA, 24th in WHIP, and 19th in home run percentage. Defensively they are bottom five as they rank 26th in both overall defense and opponents’ BABIP. They’re 27th in outs above average and last in defensive runs saved. If the Guardians can put the ball in play they should be able to get hits.
They should also be able to run wild on the Twins, who rank 29th in opponents’ base stealing success rate at 85%. The Guardians are 4th in stolen base success rate (82%) so this is the perfect opportunity to steal a ton of bases even if Jose is sitting this one out.
The Guardians are 28th in throwing out base stealers, despite Bailey and Hedges, so we could see a lot of running in this series. However, the Twins are 29th in stolen base attempts per game. They’re a team that prefers to wait for the big hits.
The Twins are last in bullpen ERA at 5.28, so running up the starters’ pitch counts and getting to the bullpen early will be key.
The first series saw both teams scoring 11 runs in 3 games but I think we’ll see more runs from both teams in this one. The weather is warmer than it was in Cleveland in early May and the baseballs have less drag since the beginning of June according to testing.
Pitching matchups:
Cantillo v. Taj Bradley, RHP, (7-3, 3.86 ERA) on Tuesday
Cecconi v. Connor Prielipp, LHP, (2-5, 4.96) on Wednesday
Williams v. Mike Paredes, RHP, (0-2, 4.60) on Thursday (afternoon game)
Prielipp and Paredes are rookies who made their first major league appearances this year. Paredes has only pitching 30 innings.
Game 1 preview:
Joey Cantillo (7-3, 3.86) has been outstanding in his last four starts, allowing 5 runs on 15 hits in 24 innings for a 1.88 ERA. He did not face the Twins in Cleveland. Buxton is 2-for-6 off him with two doubles.
Taj Bradley has been nearly as good with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 hits in 17 innings with 22 K’s. The Guardians have just 19 at-bats against him with Schneeman going 3-for-5 with two doubles.
As a team the Twins have an OPS of .669 against lefties versus .766 against right-handers, so that will be in Cantillo’s favor. If Buxton can’t go Tuesday that will help even more. Buxton leads the Twins with 4 home runs off lefties. Jeffers (.895), Austin Martin (.802), and Buxton (.778) are the only Twins with an OPS over .700 against LHP’s. Cantillo will be pitchng with an extra day of rest after the off day Monday.
The Twins’ starters for the last two games are rookies with ERA’s of 4.96 and 4.60 so Bradley is their best starter this series. The Twins’ best starter is All-Star Joe Ryan, but he pitched Sunday and will miss this series. Cantillo versus Bradley looks like the Twins' best pitching matchup on paper although Gavin Williams has been inconsistent lately.
Three games against the Twins and three against the Marlins on the road to close out the first half, then the Guardians should be getting Jose and Angel back soon after the break.
