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Two trains moving in opposite directions collide as the Guardians, reeling from 13 losses in 17 games, take on the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Tigers are 23-11 in their last 34 games and 14-8 since the All-Star break. This series could be the turning point in the Guardians' season or it could be just another couple of spins on the way down the drain.
The Tigers have been an offensive juggernaut since the All-Star break as they are tied with the Red Sox for most runs per game at 6.0. They are tied for first in wRC+ at 124. They’re 2nd in batting average and OPS, 3rd in OBP, 4th in slugging, and 6th in home run percentage.
The Tigers take big swings, ranking 24th in strikeout percentage since the break, but when they connect it tends to go far. They wait patiently for the big hit, having stolen just 4 bases in 22 games and ranking 29th in base running since the break. It’s all about driving the ball.
Most of the Tigers have been raking since the break. Their individual wRC+ in those 22 games: Valencia 201 (11 games), Dingler 173, Keith 170, Max Clark 145 (9 games), McKinstry 140, McGonigle 136, Lee 132, Torkelson 127. They have a deep batting order. Dingler leads in HR's and RBI's with 26 and 80, respectively.
The Guardians’ staff will really be challenged by the best offense in baseball since the break. The Guardians bullpen has hit a rough patch, ranking 27th in ERA since the break at a whopping 5.13. Aleman, Festa, Gaddis, and Herrin all have ERA’s over 5.40 since the break. I cringe to think of our bullpen against an offense that is this hot.
One thing that could help the Guardians is that the Tigers hit right-handed pitching slightly better than lefties (.738 versus .707 OPS). The Guardians have two lefties going this series.
In park factor Comerica Park gets a 94 in runs and a 92 in home runs, which makes it one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the game. It has a huge outfield and gets a 178 on triples, so it might be smart to play Halpin in center this series. The power alleys are huge.
Since the break the Tigers have had the best pitching in the majors with an ERA of 2.80. They’ve been lucky as their expected ERA is 3.52. They’ve had the 4th lowest BABIP. For the season they rank 25th in defense and 28th in outs above average, so there's no way they should be 4th in BABIP. It's a small sample of 22 games. But they rank 6th in ground ball percentage and it’s hard to score hitting ground balls.
Pitching matchups:
Bibee v. Bullpen Day on Tuesday
Griffin v. Framer Valdez (7-7, 4.17 ERA) on Wednesday
Messick v. Keider Montero (8-7, 3.38 ERA) on Thursday
Thursday is a day game.
Game 1 preview:
Drew Anderson, a 32-year-old right-hander, gets the start for Detroit. Anderson is a reliever but he’s kind of a long man. On May 20 he pitched 4.2 innings against the Guardians, allowing 2 hits, no runs, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts on 63 pitches. IOW, he was totally dominant. For the season he has a 4.10 ERA but against the Guardians it’s 1.59.
I guess this is a semi-bullpen game. The 63 pitches he threw against the Guardians in May is his season high. He's only been over 45 pitches twice. They probably hope to get 4 innings out of him.
Bibee has started twice this year against the Tigers, going 15 innings and allowing 6 hits and 3 runs. He’s been excellent against them but that was in May and June. They’re hitting way, way better now. Post-All Star their team OPS is .801 compared to .719 pre-All Star.
The Guardians have not fared well in bullpen games (based solely on my recollection). MLB does not track that statistic. Ideally Bibee continues to pitch well against the Tigers and we make their bullpen throw a ton of pitches to limit their options on Wednesday while scraping together enough runs to win. We may have to hope Bibee goes 8 innings so we don’t have to use a reliever other than Cade.
The Tigers best hitters this year (Dingler, McGonigle, Greene, and Keith) hit left-handed as does their top prospect Max Clark, who is hitting really well in nine games since he was called up. So Griffin and Messick may be able to hold the Tigers down in games 2 and 3.
The Tigers have been an offensive juggernaut since the All-Star break as they are tied with the Red Sox for most runs per game at 6.0. They are tied for first in wRC+ at 124. They’re 2nd in batting average and OPS, 3rd in OBP, 4th in slugging, and 6th in home run percentage.
The Tigers take big swings, ranking 24th in strikeout percentage since the break, but when they connect it tends to go far. They wait patiently for the big hit, having stolen just 4 bases in 22 games and ranking 29th in base running since the break. It’s all about driving the ball.
Most of the Tigers have been raking since the break. Their individual wRC+ in those 22 games: Valencia 201 (11 games), Dingler 173, Keith 170, Max Clark 145 (9 games), McKinstry 140, McGonigle 136, Lee 132, Torkelson 127. They have a deep batting order. Dingler leads in HR's and RBI's with 26 and 80, respectively.
The Guardians’ staff will really be challenged by the best offense in baseball since the break. The Guardians bullpen has hit a rough patch, ranking 27th in ERA since the break at a whopping 5.13. Aleman, Festa, Gaddis, and Herrin all have ERA’s over 5.40 since the break. I cringe to think of our bullpen against an offense that is this hot.
One thing that could help the Guardians is that the Tigers hit right-handed pitching slightly better than lefties (.738 versus .707 OPS). The Guardians have two lefties going this series.
In park factor Comerica Park gets a 94 in runs and a 92 in home runs, which makes it one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the game. It has a huge outfield and gets a 178 on triples, so it might be smart to play Halpin in center this series. The power alleys are huge.
Since the break the Tigers have had the best pitching in the majors with an ERA of 2.80. They’ve been lucky as their expected ERA is 3.52. They’ve had the 4th lowest BABIP. For the season they rank 25th in defense and 28th in outs above average, so there's no way they should be 4th in BABIP. It's a small sample of 22 games. But they rank 6th in ground ball percentage and it’s hard to score hitting ground balls.
Pitching matchups:
Bibee v. Bullpen Day on Tuesday
Griffin v. Framer Valdez (7-7, 4.17 ERA) on Wednesday
Messick v. Keider Montero (8-7, 3.38 ERA) on Thursday
Thursday is a day game.
Game 1 preview:
Drew Anderson, a 32-year-old right-hander, gets the start for Detroit. Anderson is a reliever but he’s kind of a long man. On May 20 he pitched 4.2 innings against the Guardians, allowing 2 hits, no runs, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts on 63 pitches. IOW, he was totally dominant. For the season he has a 4.10 ERA but against the Guardians it’s 1.59.
I guess this is a semi-bullpen game. The 63 pitches he threw against the Guardians in May is his season high. He's only been over 45 pitches twice. They probably hope to get 4 innings out of him.
Bibee has started twice this year against the Tigers, going 15 innings and allowing 6 hits and 3 runs. He’s been excellent against them but that was in May and June. They’re hitting way, way better now. Post-All Star their team OPS is .801 compared to .719 pre-All Star.
The Guardians have not fared well in bullpen games (based solely on my recollection). MLB does not track that statistic. Ideally Bibee continues to pitch well against the Tigers and we make their bullpen throw a ton of pitches to limit their options on Wednesday while scraping together enough runs to win. We may have to hope Bibee goes 8 innings so we don’t have to use a reliever other than Cade.
The Tigers best hitters this year (Dingler, McGonigle, Greene, and Keith) hit left-handed as does their top prospect Max Clark, who is hitting really well in nine games since he was called up. So Griffin and Messick may be able to hold the Tigers down in games 2 and 3.
