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All by themselves in 4th place the Guardians return home for a weekend series against the scorching hot San Diego Padres. The Friars are 65-57 overall but have won 15 of their last 19 games, including 5 in a row. They just swept the Brewers. We couldn’t be catching them at a worse time.
The Padres play in one of the toughest ballparks to score in so I will use their away stats for the offense. They are 10th in runs per game on the road. They are 9th in home run percentage, 4th in extra base hit percentage, and 12th in OPS. Those are their full season rankings.
Since the All-Star break the Pads are 5th in runs per game; before the break they were last. Before the break their wRC+ ranked 29th at 90. Since the break it is tied for 1st at 125. Why they went from almost worst to first in one week I have no idea. But right now they’re hitting as well as any team in baseball.
Ty France leads in OPS at .295/.874. Fernando Tatis Jr is at .281/.773. Jackson Merrill is at .247/.716 overall but he’s hitting a scorching .362/1.103 in Aug. Luis Rengifo was traded to the Padres and is hitting .318/.861 in 85 AB’s for them.
Maybe we should ask them what they did over the break. How did they take the curse off their bats? Sacrifice the San Diego Chicken?
They’re not as good at pitching, ranking 21st in ERA away from Petco. Their staff is 23rd in WHIP and the Pads are 27th in BABIP, although their defense ranks 5th. I think opponents’ BABIP is the best measure of a defense because it measures what percentage of balls in play are converted to outs, so range and positioning play a big role, not just making the play without an error.
They’re middle of the pack in HR%, W%, K%, and XBH%. Put the ball in play and you have a decent chance of getting on as only three teams are worse at getting outs on batted balls.
In their 3-0 loss to Detroit on Thursday the Guardians did not strike out once in 9 innings. That’s what happens when you get rid of Arias, Manzardo, Schneemann, and Fry. So I’m hopeful the Guardians can put a ton of balls in play and a good percentage of them will find grass.
The Padres will start three right-handers so we will see the Guardians left-handed batting order the entire series.
Pitching matchups:
Williams v. Michael King (7-8, 3.37 ERA) on Friday
Cantillo v. Randy Vasquez (8-6, 4.16 ERA) on Saturday
Bibee v. Casey Mize (4-7, 3.38 ERA) on Sunday
Game 1 preview:
Michael King is a 31-year-old who converted from relieving to starting three years ago and has been very successful. He’s pitching very well recently with a 2.92 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Guardians are 7-for-40 against him (.175/.483). Don’t be surprised if he shuts us down.
Gavin Williams (11-6, 3.55 ERA) is having a great season. In his last four starts he has a 1.42 ERA so he’s got everything working. He was 62 K’s in his last 6 starts. His ERA at the Prog is 2.85 against 4.25 on the road so he’s very comfortable pitching at home.
Freddy Fermin, who was a catcher for the Royals until this year, is 4-for-7 against Gavin. He hits right-handed so I don’t know why he’s been that successful. He’s hitting .195 this season at age 31.
This is looking like it could easily be a pitcher’s duel in game 1 as both King and Williams are quality starters who have been throwing the ball very well in recent starts. The Padres are smoking hot offensively right now so Gavin has a tough task in front of him. The Pads had yesterday off for the long flight from the west coast.
The Padres play in one of the toughest ballparks to score in so I will use their away stats for the offense. They are 10th in runs per game on the road. They are 9th in home run percentage, 4th in extra base hit percentage, and 12th in OPS. Those are their full season rankings.
Since the All-Star break the Pads are 5th in runs per game; before the break they were last. Before the break their wRC+ ranked 29th at 90. Since the break it is tied for 1st at 125. Why they went from almost worst to first in one week I have no idea. But right now they’re hitting as well as any team in baseball.
Ty France leads in OPS at .295/.874. Fernando Tatis Jr is at .281/.773. Jackson Merrill is at .247/.716 overall but he’s hitting a scorching .362/1.103 in Aug. Luis Rengifo was traded to the Padres and is hitting .318/.861 in 85 AB’s for them.
Maybe we should ask them what they did over the break. How did they take the curse off their bats? Sacrifice the San Diego Chicken?
They’re not as good at pitching, ranking 21st in ERA away from Petco. Their staff is 23rd in WHIP and the Pads are 27th in BABIP, although their defense ranks 5th. I think opponents’ BABIP is the best measure of a defense because it measures what percentage of balls in play are converted to outs, so range and positioning play a big role, not just making the play without an error.
They’re middle of the pack in HR%, W%, K%, and XBH%. Put the ball in play and you have a decent chance of getting on as only three teams are worse at getting outs on batted balls.
In their 3-0 loss to Detroit on Thursday the Guardians did not strike out once in 9 innings. That’s what happens when you get rid of Arias, Manzardo, Schneemann, and Fry. So I’m hopeful the Guardians can put a ton of balls in play and a good percentage of them will find grass.
The Padres will start three right-handers so we will see the Guardians left-handed batting order the entire series.
Pitching matchups:
Williams v. Michael King (7-8, 3.37 ERA) on Friday
Cantillo v. Randy Vasquez (8-6, 4.16 ERA) on Saturday
Bibee v. Casey Mize (4-7, 3.38 ERA) on Sunday
Game 1 preview:
Michael King is a 31-year-old who converted from relieving to starting three years ago and has been very successful. He’s pitching very well recently with a 2.92 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Guardians are 7-for-40 against him (.175/.483). Don’t be surprised if he shuts us down.
Gavin Williams (11-6, 3.55 ERA) is having a great season. In his last four starts he has a 1.42 ERA so he’s got everything working. He was 62 K’s in his last 6 starts. His ERA at the Prog is 2.85 against 4.25 on the road so he’s very comfortable pitching at home.
Freddy Fermin, who was a catcher for the Royals until this year, is 4-for-7 against Gavin. He hits right-handed so I don’t know why he’s been that successful. He’s hitting .195 this season at age 31.
This is looking like it could easily be a pitcher’s duel in game 1 as both King and Williams are quality starters who have been throwing the ball very well in recent starts. The Padres are smoking hot offensively right now so Gavin has a tough task in front of him. The Pads had yesterday off for the long flight from the west coast.
