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Having won 8 of 9 and taken temporary control of the last wild card spot the Guardians return home to face the Kansas City Royals. Both teams are on a roll as the Royals have won 10 of 11, although 8 of those wins came against the Angels, A’s, and Tigers, who are in free fall now.
The Royals are 60-75. They are 24-45 on the road. The Royals have done all right against teams below .500 (45-39) but have gotten their clocks cleaned against winning teams (15-36). They are 3-4 against the Guardians.
Maikel Garcia (.269/.709) and Michael Massey (.276/.755) are out. Sal Perez is hitting .221/.638 and is 2-for-26 against the Guardians. Bobby Witt (.288/.824) and Jacques Caglianone (.274/.812) are their best hitters. Witt is hitting .407/1.170 in seven games against Cleveland. Cags had 5 hits last night.
I don’t think any team has a bigger discrepancy between their home and away run production than the Royals. They average 4.91 runs per game at home and 3.54 away. That 3.54 number ranks last. They’re also last in road OPS and slugging percentage. They’re 28th in BA, ISO, and BABIP on the road and 29th in OBP. Just an awful offensive team away from home and not having Massey and Garcia makes them worse.
They scored 7 runs in 3 games in the series in Cleveland in April. These teams have not played in nearly 4 months and obviously the Guardians have made a lot of changes. In the one game the Royals won in Cleveland by a 4-2 score Hoskins, Manzardo, Kayfus, Schneemann, Naylor, and Arias combined to go 1-for-16. None of them will be playing this weekend. Jonathan India drove in 3 of their 4 runs that night and he is out for the season.
The Royals rank 28th in road ERA at 5.04. The Guardians have a 3.66 home ERA so the pitching should favor the Guardians. The Royals’ bullpen ranks 29th in road ERA at 5.18.
Obviously the Royals do not have great pitching and the problem is compounded by the fact that their two of their three best starters are 35 and 36 years old. We’ll see both of them. I still find it hard to believe that a lot of pundits picked them to win the Central this year.
Hard to believe but the Royals have only three pitchers who have pitched more than 70 innings this year. Thirteen pitchers have started games this year and only three have made more than 12 starts.
The Royals’ pitchers are 29th in opponents' home run percentage and 28th in extra base hit percentage on the road. Defensively the Royals rank 5th and they are 1st in opponents’ stolen base percentage so Jose will have to pick his spots carefully if he wants to swipe a bag.
Pitching matchups:
Bibee v. Michael Wacha, RHP, 7-8, 3.49 on Friday
Griffin v. Daniel Lynch, LHP, 2.93 ERA on Saturday
Messick v. Seth Lugo, RHP, 6-7, 4.61 on Sunday
Saturday will be a bullpen game as Lynch is a reliever whose longest appearance was 4.1 innings.
Game 1 preview:
Tanner Bibee has gotten no run support this year and that is likely to continue as Michael Wacha has the Guardians’ number. In two starts this year he has gone 7 innings in each, allowing 1 and 2 runs. The Guardians are hitting .149 against him in those two starts. Wacha is 35 but he can still sling it. In his last seven starts his ERA is 3.86.
We have more robust hitters in the batting order than we had in April and May so that may help. Fry is 4-for-9 off him lifetime and Bailey is 3-for-7. Hedges is 0-for-9 so I expect Bailey to start on Friday.
Bibee (5-13, 3.97) is having a frustrating season. He has a 4.88 ERA in August following 4.20 in July. He hasn’t been bad; just not as sharp as he was earlier when he had a 3.81 ERA at the end of May. He held the Royals to 1 run in 4.2 innings in Cleveland but gave up 4 runs in 4 innings in KC.
Vinnie Pasquantino has owned Bibee with 10 hits in 17 at-bats. Bobby Witt Jr is 9-for-24. The rest of the Royals are hitting .102 against him. He should just walk those two every time. Vinnie has missed 47 games this year and his numbers are a little down so Tanner will probably stick his head in the dragon’s mouth again.
The Guardians’ batting order is deeper than it has been all year and Jose has 5 hits in his last 10 AB’s, so I’m hopeful we can get 3 runs off Wacha before going to work on their crappy bullpen. But with Bibee pitching it’s likely runs will be like hen’s teeth.
This will be a tough series even if the Royals are more than 20 games below .500 on the road and against teams with winning records. Michael Wacha owns us and he pitches Friday. They're doing a bullpen game Saturday and we never win bullpen games. I like our chances with Messick against Lugo on Sunday.
The Royals are 60-75. They are 24-45 on the road. The Royals have done all right against teams below .500 (45-39) but have gotten their clocks cleaned against winning teams (15-36). They are 3-4 against the Guardians.
Maikel Garcia (.269/.709) and Michael Massey (.276/.755) are out. Sal Perez is hitting .221/.638 and is 2-for-26 against the Guardians. Bobby Witt (.288/.824) and Jacques Caglianone (.274/.812) are their best hitters. Witt is hitting .407/1.170 in seven games against Cleveland. Cags had 5 hits last night.
I don’t think any team has a bigger discrepancy between their home and away run production than the Royals. They average 4.91 runs per game at home and 3.54 away. That 3.54 number ranks last. They’re also last in road OPS and slugging percentage. They’re 28th in BA, ISO, and BABIP on the road and 29th in OBP. Just an awful offensive team away from home and not having Massey and Garcia makes them worse.
They scored 7 runs in 3 games in the series in Cleveland in April. These teams have not played in nearly 4 months and obviously the Guardians have made a lot of changes. In the one game the Royals won in Cleveland by a 4-2 score Hoskins, Manzardo, Kayfus, Schneemann, Naylor, and Arias combined to go 1-for-16. None of them will be playing this weekend. Jonathan India drove in 3 of their 4 runs that night and he is out for the season.
The Royals rank 28th in road ERA at 5.04. The Guardians have a 3.66 home ERA so the pitching should favor the Guardians. The Royals’ bullpen ranks 29th in road ERA at 5.18.
Obviously the Royals do not have great pitching and the problem is compounded by the fact that their two of their three best starters are 35 and 36 years old. We’ll see both of them. I still find it hard to believe that a lot of pundits picked them to win the Central this year.
Hard to believe but the Royals have only three pitchers who have pitched more than 70 innings this year. Thirteen pitchers have started games this year and only three have made more than 12 starts.
The Royals’ pitchers are 29th in opponents' home run percentage and 28th in extra base hit percentage on the road. Defensively the Royals rank 5th and they are 1st in opponents’ stolen base percentage so Jose will have to pick his spots carefully if he wants to swipe a bag.
Pitching matchups:
Bibee v. Michael Wacha, RHP, 7-8, 3.49 on Friday
Griffin v. Daniel Lynch, LHP, 2.93 ERA on Saturday
Messick v. Seth Lugo, RHP, 6-7, 4.61 on Sunday
Saturday will be a bullpen game as Lynch is a reliever whose longest appearance was 4.1 innings.
Game 1 preview:
Tanner Bibee has gotten no run support this year and that is likely to continue as Michael Wacha has the Guardians’ number. In two starts this year he has gone 7 innings in each, allowing 1 and 2 runs. The Guardians are hitting .149 against him in those two starts. Wacha is 35 but he can still sling it. In his last seven starts his ERA is 3.86.
We have more robust hitters in the batting order than we had in April and May so that may help. Fry is 4-for-9 off him lifetime and Bailey is 3-for-7. Hedges is 0-for-9 so I expect Bailey to start on Friday.
Bibee (5-13, 3.97) is having a frustrating season. He has a 4.88 ERA in August following 4.20 in July. He hasn’t been bad; just not as sharp as he was earlier when he had a 3.81 ERA at the end of May. He held the Royals to 1 run in 4.2 innings in Cleveland but gave up 4 runs in 4 innings in KC.
Vinnie Pasquantino has owned Bibee with 10 hits in 17 at-bats. Bobby Witt Jr is 9-for-24. The rest of the Royals are hitting .102 against him. He should just walk those two every time. Vinnie has missed 47 games this year and his numbers are a little down so Tanner will probably stick his head in the dragon’s mouth again.
The Guardians’ batting order is deeper than it has been all year and Jose has 5 hits in his last 10 AB’s, so I’m hopeful we can get 3 runs off Wacha before going to work on their crappy bullpen. But with Bibee pitching it’s likely runs will be like hen’s teeth.
This will be a tough series even if the Royals are more than 20 games below .500 on the road and against teams with winning records. Michael Wacha owns us and he pitches Friday. They're doing a bullpen game Saturday and we never win bullpen games. I like our chances with Messick against Lugo on Sunday.
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