23 Offseason GM Thread

[sportscoach]

Am I the only one that feels like we will move the depth on the 40 man for a LHRP?

 

[CDAV45]

So they should have dumped Straw and Rosario for moldy PB&J sandwiches and went with straight rookies for CF and 2B/SS? Traded Bieber plus Plesac and expected the return SP (likely Pepiot) and Bibee to take their spots?

Edit: I know you didn't say that, but you have been making moves that say that...

Never said that once. I have said that the problem I have with Straw is the role he is in. He's not a desired starter on a playoff team, but I have no problem with Myles as a 4th OFer. Do you think Brennan is a better/more valuable hitter than Straw? Do you think Arias is a better defensive SS than Rosario? Be careful because you're pining for the better defensive CF to start.

I don't care about the return for Rosario, I just want him out of the way. Doing so makes us better. If they can get a good LHRP for him then all the merrier.

C'mon dude, try to follow along a little closer. I clearly stated that neither Pepiot or Bibee would be replacing Bieber, that would be McKenzie's role as he was right with Bieber last year and is on the way up while Bieber has peaked and is possibly on the downside. Pepiot and Bibee both have the ability to outperform Quantrill, Civale and Plesac. Had more been done this offseason then I might agree with you about not trading Bieber. The reality suggest otherwise as I don't see this team anywhere close to being a WS contender.

 

[sportscoach]

Never said that once. I have said that the problem I have with Straw is the role he is in. He's not a desired starter on a playoff team, but I have no problem with Myles as a 4th OFer. Do you think Brennan is a better/more valuable hitter than Straw? Do you think Arias is a better defensive SS than Rosario? Be careful because you're pining for the better defensive CF to start.

I don't care about the return for Rosario, I just want him out of the way. Doing so makes us better. If they can get a good LHRP for him then all the merrier.

C'mon dude, try to follow along a little closer. I clearly stated that neither Pepiot or Bibee would be replacing Bieber, that would be McKenzie's role as he was right with Bieber last year and is on the way up while Bieber has peaked and is possibly on the downside. Pepiot and Bibee both have the ability to outperform Quantrill, Civale and Plesac. Had more been done this offseason then I might agree with you about not trading Bieber. The reality suggest otherwise as I don't see this team anywhere close to being a WS contender.

I was being a bit a sarcastic person there lol Cleveland got to the playoffs with the crew you are always complaining about.

Brennan = better hitter on paper... Straw = best defensive OF

Francona likes to slow get guys into roles as rookies normally. Straw is the starter at the beginning of the year and if he hits will keep it. Brennan will get ABs and get chances to prove himself. When it comes to 24, if Brennan shows the club he can play plus OF and hit like Brantley, then they have to find a spot for him. For right now, for better or for worse, Straw is just too good of a CF defensively not to have him starting. He has a short leash in 23 and that's a fact and Brennan is gunning for his job on paper. Straw knows it and he knows he's gotta prove it. Let's see how he recovers from 22 and plays in 23. You will have to deal with Straw being the regular starter until Juneish... If he hasn't fixed his issues at the plate then, he's going to be benched. Wait until then...

Arias = better upside and potential... Rosario = proven player and a team leader

On paper, if this was a simulation, then in no way would Rosario even be on this club. Heck he may have even been non-tendered/cut last season. That isn't reality and it's a fact Cleveland felt keeping Rosario would give the team more wins/WAR than trading/replacing him. They were open to moving him, but weren't going to trade him for something unless it benefited them either by filling in a need on the current roster or in the organization in general. That deal never came before spring and honestly since it didn't they are going to keep who they know instead of playing the unknown. Arias is a better player on paper, but is still an unknown and I feel like they would rather have him ramp up his responsibilities rather than throw him into it all at once. Now come near the deadline... If Rosario starts slumping bad (Aka .220-.240 with .300 BABIP in laste June/early July) he is likely gone like what happened with Uribe when JRam finally got his chance. As long as Rosario is hitting and hustling, it's his spot for 23. He can lose it though so his position isn't permanent if he's not getting those hits.

If you trade Bieber and the best SP you have to replace him on paper is Pepiot, then you essentially replaced Bieber and Pepiot... You need 5 starters and losing an Ace while having another Ace is all good and dandy, but you need at least 3 SPs who are #2 or higher most years to win a WS on paper. We would go from having two #1s and three #4s to having one #1 plus three #4s and no proven to be even a number 5 in 23. You definitely are going backwards on paper big time and have to have multiple guys step up...

Our best SP talent is coming and on paper, they will be monsters going forward, but it's impossible to count on them in 23. If anything you have to project them as a negative WAR if we see them.

So we were a rain out away/a HR away from getting to the ALCS and we upgraded the team on paper, and we aren't a contender.. Hell the Phillies barely got there and won it all. You are a contender as long as you get in and win. Best teams don't always win... Tell me what happens if we had a 100% healthy JRam and Gimenez last October?

You my friend are too big of a pessimistic at the moment. They will make a move at the trade deadline if there is issues. If Zunino isn't working, they will replace him... If Bell isn't working, they will give his ABs to someone else. Antonetti hasn't been afraid to make moves and they have room in the budget to go get a contract if need be.

 

[sportscoach]

@Tondo @Gson

You guys may know more than me when it comes to this... Is there any pitchers on a team with a deep bullpen or a non-contending team on paper that have guys on the bubble that we may be able to get for the likes of a package around a guy like Tena?

Tondo reason why I am including you is cause you also know guys that are at MLB ready who may not make a roster but could be a boon to ours. Aka I would like to find maybe another guy like a Herrin type (maybe a bit younger) from the left side who has minor league options. Doesn't have to be left handed, just someone though who can fit into our current mix but keep the roster flexible.

Also @Gson heard/seen any under the radar guys like Effross and Mantiply possibly? Both guys essentially came out of nowhere as older pitchers in a sense.

I have a hunch we are going to swap out the end of the roster before we break camp and I was seeing if their was a arm elsewhere that would be better than Kelly (who may make the roster). Plus we need at least one spot open for a catcher so swapping Tena for a RP, with upside/MLB control would fill in things nicely. Plus I think they want to have another fielder like a Quinn maybe make the roster...

 

[Gson]

@Tondo @Gson

You guys may know more than me when it comes to this... Is there any pitchers on a team with a deep bullpen or a non-contending team on paper that have guys on the bubble that we may be able to get for the likes of a package around a guy like Tena?

Tondo reason why I am including you is cause you also know guys that are at MLB ready who may not make a roster but could be a boon to ours. Aka I would like to find maybe another guy like a Herrin type (maybe a bit younger) from the left side who has minor league options. Doesn't have to be left handed, just someone though who can fit into our current mix but keep the roster flexible.

Also @Gson heard/seen any under the radar guys like Effross and Mantiply possibly? Both guys essentially came out of nowhere as older pitchers in a sense.

I have a hunch we are going to swap out the end of the roster before we break camp and I was seeing if their was a arm elsewhere that would be better than Kelly (who may make the roster). Plus we need at least one spot open for a catcher so swapping Tena for a RP, with upside/MLB control would fill in things nicely. Plus I think they want to have another fielder like a Quinn maybe make the roster...

There are always "under the radar" guys.. It's always a matter of degree as to who qualifies..

Examples

Dax Fulton/Jake Eder.. both are LHP's.. both are close to ML readiness.. but, like many guys like them, they are being developed as starters.. FWIW.. both should be starters, but, right now.. they both have solid control/command of two pitches & could contribute from a pen..
Evaluation: Unlikely

Note: Ken Waldichuk LHP A's , Kyler Muller LHP A's and Carson Wisenhunt LHP are like this but could be
moved to the pen with a slowing of their SP development.. IOW..these are guys to watch for later..

Camillo Doval RHRP for the SF Giants.. another guy who has come out of the weeds to become a ML RP weapon
Evaluation: Likely

Brandon Walter Boston LHRP is the epitome of an under the radar RP.. Has impeccable control of a FB/Slider combination.. he's made for being an RP..
Evaluation: Highly Likely

Evan Phillips.. LAD RHRP.. who knew this guy could become this good while getting both RHH's and LHHs?
Evaluation: Likely

There are others..

 

[CDAV45]

I was being a bit a sarcastic person there lol Cleveland got to the playoffs with the crew you are always complaining about.

Brennan = better hitter on paper... Straw = best defensive OF

Francona likes to slow get guys into roles as rookies normally. Straw is the starter at the beginning of the year and if he hits will keep it. Brennan will get ABs and get chances to prove himself. When it comes to 24, if Brennan shows the club he can play plus OF and hit like Brantley, then they have to find a spot for him. For right now, for better or for worse, Straw is just too good of a CF defensively not to have him starting. He has a short leash in 23 and that's a fact and Brennan is gunning for his job on paper. Straw knows it and he knows he's gotta prove it. Let's see how he recovers from 22 and plays in 23. You will have to deal with Straw being the regular starter until Juneish... If he hasn't fixed his issues at the plate then, he's going to be benched. Wait until then...

Arias = better upside and potential... Rosario = proven player and a team leader

On paper, if this was a simulation, then in no way would Rosario even be on this club. Heck he may have even been non-tendered/cut last season. That isn't reality and it's a fact Cleveland felt keeping Rosario would give the team more wins/WAR than trading/replacing him. They were open to moving him, but weren't going to trade him for something unless it benefited them either by filling in a need on the current roster or in the organization in general. That deal never came before spring and honestly since it didn't they are going to keep who they know instead of playing the unknown. Arias is a better player on paper, but is still an unknown and I feel like they would rather have him ramp up his responsibilities rather than throw him into it all at once. Now come near the deadline... If Rosario starts slumping bad (Aka .220-.240 with .300 BABIP in laste June/early July) he is likely gone like what happened with Uribe when JRam finally got his chance. As long as Rosario is hitting and hustling, it's his spot for 23. He can lose it though so his position isn't permanent if he's not getting those hits.

If you trade Bieber and the best SP you have to replace him on paper is Pepiot, then you essentially replaced Bieber and Pepiot... You need 5 starters and losing an Ace while having another Ace is all good and dandy, but you need at least 3 SPs who are #2 or higher most years to win a WS on paper. We would go from having two #1s and three #4s to having one #1 plus three #4s and no proven to be even a number 5 in 23. You definitely are going backwards on paper big time and have to have multiple guys step up...

Our best SP talent is coming and on paper, they will be monsters going forward, but it's impossible to count on them in 23. If anything you have to project them as a negative WAR if we see them.

So we were a rain out away/a HR away from getting to the ALCS and we upgraded the team on paper, and we aren't a contender.. Hell the Phillies barely got there and won it all. You are a contender as long as you get in and win. Best teams don't always win... Tell me what happens if we had a 100% healthy JRam and Gimenez last October?

You my friend are too big of a pessimistic at the moment. They will make a move at the trade deadline if there is issues. If Zunino isn't working, they will replace him... If Bell isn't working, they will give his ABs to someone else. Antonetti hasn't been afraid to make moves and they have room in the budget to go get a contract if need be.

I told you to be careful and you did it anyway. If the benefit in CF is having the superior defender then the same applies for SS. I’d argue that the difference defensively between Arias and Rosario is greater than that of Straw and Brennan. We don’t even need to discuss offense at this point. If your logic applies then it applies.

I’ve also told you time and again that last season’s success had as much to do with the Twins and White Sox injuries and underperformances than our own performance. That’s pretty obvious when you look at last season objectively. So I’m not a pessimist. I’m a realist. I don’t want to rely on that every damn season.

This comes down to the same thing that had me irked the last couple of seasons. They’re half-assing it again. Choose a path and commit to it fully. You say you want to win now then get the players to do it. You want to bring up your own(my preference) then that’s fine too, but it changes how they should do things. Maybe they tried to put a better team on the field and failed. After all it takes 2 to tango, but when that didn’t happen then they should have changed course. I don’t see them trading their top minor league talent to bring in a short term solution to anything. Our farm system is in a different state than when we traded for Miller.

It’s not impossible to rely on the most talented SP prospects we’ve seen in a very long time. I do think it’s impossible to extend Bieber. It’s not that I desire to trade him. The issue is bigger than Shane Bieber and the overall, long term health of this organization is more important to me than what Shane might be able to provide for a single season. You don’t have to agree with that, but it is the truth as I see it. Not only will waiting to trade him see his value lessen accordingly, but the loss of leverage will be just as if not more damning. There are a couple of recent examples of that. Should he sign an extension then that changes things and my thoughts toward them.

I can’t help but find the irony in the fact that you don’t think they can rely on rookies while simultaneously talking about how they won the division last season after debuting the most players in MLB. I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat myself. I think our actual “window” starts in 2024. I just hope the luck we experienced in 23 doesn’t change their plan for long term success because I’m a fan of it. Compile more young talent than you need and let them sort themselves out. Unless they somehow are able to start carrying $200M+ payrolls then that is the best way go IMO.

 

[sportscoach]

I told you to be careful and you did it anyway. If the benefit in CF is having the superior defender then the same applies for SS. I’d argue that the difference defensively between Arias and Rosario is greater than that of Straw and Brennan. We don’t even need to discuss offense at this point. If your logic applies then it applies.

I’ve also told you time and again that last season’s success had as much to do with the Twins and White Sox injuries and underperformances than our own performance. That’s pretty obvious when you look at last season objectively. So I’m not a pessimist. I’m a realist. I don’t want to rely on that every damn season.

This comes down to the same thing that had me irked the last couple of seasons. They’re half-assing it again. Choose a path and commit to it fully. You say you want to win now then get the players to do it. You want to bring up your own(my preference) then that’s fine too, but it changes how they should do things. Maybe they tried to put a better team on the field and failed. After all it takes 2 to tango, but when that didn’t happen then they should have changed course. I don’t see them trading their top minor league talent to bring in a short term solution to anything. Our farm system is in a different state than when we traded for Miller.

It’s not impossible to rely on the most talented SP prospects we’ve seen in a very long time. I do think it’s impossible to extend Bieber. It’s not that I desire to trade him. The issue is bigger than Shane Bieber and the overall, long term health of this organization is more important to me than what Shane might be able to provide for a single season. You don’t have to agree with that, but it is the truth as I see it. Not only will waiting to trade him see his value lessen accordingly, but the loss of leverage will be just as if not more damning. There are a couple of recent examples of that. Should he sign an extension then that changes things and my thoughts toward them.

I can’t help but find the irony in the fact that you don’t think they can rely on rookies while simultaneously talking about how they won the division last season after debuting the most players in MLB. I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat myself. I think our actual “window” starts in 2024. I just hope the luck we experienced in 23 doesn’t change their plan for long term success because I’m a fan of it. Compile more young talent than you need and let them sort themselves out. Unless they somehow are able to start carrying $200M+ payrolls then that is the best way go IMO.

Window starts now and if they didn't feel that way, they wouldn't have signed Bell...

 

[KluberSociety]

I really want to see Arias play SS just out of curiosity. My initial impressions are "like Amed, but sloppier". Clearly others like Fangraphs see more in his defense which also seems at odds with how the organization intends on using him. Count me a big skeptic though that he will be a huge improvement over Amed defensively.

 

[Tondo]

I wouldn't trade Tena for a roster bubble RP

 

[petes999]

Window starts now and if they didn't feel that way, they wouldn't have signed Bell...

So, if the Olson trade went through last spring, it would have opened the window then, instead of now? I was excited that they got Bell and thought they would have shaken things up some more (than waiting for deadline) to push the start of window in a bigger way. Yet, in listening to Bell, you don't say no to a player like him WANTING to come to Cleveland/Youngstown area. It was a good deal whether it was due to buying a comp A pick at year-end if he has a great year for $16.5 million and exercises his option or he just hits his lower end of projections .250 18 HR from FG compilation as he wants to be here. We need players like him and Ramirez who bring that veteran leadership by wanting to stay past 6-year arb period when most only care about $$$. Don't fault people for chasing it but to not make it solely about it are people we want. And, who knows, he can bust with his wild ups and downs but if wife is happy with family nearby, it should make him happy and productive. So, offer would have been made one way or another (window open or closed).

I really want to see Arias play SS just out of curiosity. My initial impressions are "like Amed, but sloppier". Clearly others like Fangraphs see more in his defense which also seems at odds with how the organization intends on using him. Count me a big skeptic though that he will be a huge improvement over Amed defensively.

There is still upside with Arias just turning 23 and missing a whole year. Rosario is almost 27.5 and is at the point of WYSIWYG - nothing more and nothing less. He will get paid by a desperate team come November as some owners throw $$$$ at problems. Yet, if Guardians couldn't muster enough interest like they got for Lindor and almost Ramirez to pull the trigger on a trade this year, it either means his extension will be announced soon (highly unlikely) or GMs see through the HIT leader facade. They know with limited flexibility in position that it is not worth giving up prospects for especially as it is just now the Angels, Cardinals, Dodgers and few other non-contenders looking for a long-term SS with their own prospects coming up. And, I still say, Rocchio may already be already permanent marker(ed) in at SS next season thus why rock the boat.

Yet, also don't say all of us see Arias potential as next Lindor/Vizquel in him (and maybe why Guardians put him as utility guy). People just thought one of Freeman or Arias (whoever won the ST battle) could be paired with Gimenez (at 2nd/SS) and do (almost or) just as well as Rosario at SS and Gimenez at 2nd, especially because Gimenez talents are being wasted playing 2nd fiddle to Rosario in position and batting order. And, yes, I would have felt better if Tito tried in these last few days with Gimenez back to put Rosario 6th and Gimenez 2nd.

Gimenez played only 7 fewer games than Rosario last year but had 123 fewer plate appearances. There is a difference in batting 2nd and 6th/7th ... is it really worth it for Rosario's hustle???? Gimenez actually had 2 more SBs and 1 less CS. Is Rosario's hustle/speed just a bit overrated especially when Gimenez had higher numbers across the board (.014/.059/.063/.122 - differences in slash)? Tito is giving up runs every game as Gimenez gets up 1 few PA in 44% to 55% of the games (1/9th chance that game is stopped at each 9 batting order spots - so Rosario hits but Gimenez doesn't is if it stops at 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and/or 6th in order). That equates to 150 games x .5 (middle of .44 and .55 for 2nd vs 6th or 7th) = 75 fricken at bats out of 600 targeted at bats for people high in the order-- makes a difference especially in the playoffs. And, makes a difference when people driving in Gimenez, with his higher OBP, are Zunino and Straw vs Ramirez and Bell.

 

[hockeyjohn]

Never said that once. I have said that the problem I have with Straw is the role he is in. He's not a desired starter on a playoff team, but I have no problem with Myles as a 4th OFer. Do you think Brennan is a better/more valuable hitter than Straw? Do you think Arias is a better defensive SS than Rosario? Be careful because you're pining for the better defensive CF to start.

I don't care about the return for Rosario, I just want him out of the way. Doing so makes us better. If they can get a good LHRP for him then all the merrier.

C'mon dude, try to follow along a little closer. I clearly stated that neither Pepiot or Bibee would be replacing Bieber, that would be McKenzie's role as he was right with Bieber last year and is on the way up while Bieber has peaked and is possibly on the downside. Pepiot and Bibee both have the ability to outperform Quantrill, Civale and Plesac. Had more been done this offseason then I might agree with you about not trading Bieber. The reality suggest otherwise as I don't see this team anywhere close to being a WS contender.

McKenzie replaces Bieber , but then who replaces McKenzie? Your arguement just doesn't cut it for me.

 

[sportscoach]

I wouldn't trade Tena for a roster bubble RP

I meant on another team... is there a young pitcher that's MLB ready but blocked right now that you would trade him for?

 

[Gson]

@CDAV45 ...

If the supposition is that the true window of contention is 2024.. then having a lame duck/non-extended staff ace is a bad way to do business.. Given that this may be the only way of doing business, then keeping Bieber until his control is over.. done.. qualifying offer submitted.. going away party clean up crew collecting their checks..

ahh... but herein lies the "fly in the ointment"...

What if you are right.. that 2024 is the first real opportunity to truly compete for a world series title?? No one is discounting the possibility that 2023 won't be a repeat of 2022 whereby a division win is possible.. a first round short playoff series can't be won.. but.. it's when there are four SP's needed.. having Civale, Plesac and or ____________ (Quantrill or one of several: Morris, Cantillo, others) behind Bieber & McKenzie says the team has to get lucky..

You don't want to rely on luck.. you want to rely on a dominating staff that comes with the promise of Allen, Bibee, Campbell, Espino, Hankins, Williams...and others.. (note: alphabetical order) along with whoever is left from the current rotation.. While not being expendable, the current group of SP's, especially the bottom three.. don't qualify for your "dominating staff" promise..

No more.. no less..

BTW... If that means trading Bieber, the return has to be what you've stated: a haul or a QO... Any argument that the Guardians will not be as good as they were last year.. only have to look at the 2022 ALDS for the starters....

Game One, Cole beat Quantrill..
Game Two, Bieber and Cortez pitched to a draw..
Game Three, TMac was out pitched by Severino
Game Four, Cole beat Quantrill/Morgan
Game Five, Civale didn't make it out of the first inning..

It would not be off base to say, when you do the same thing over and over, expect the same results to be considered "normal".. It would be a lot tougher on the Guardians' ALDS opponent if there were one or two of Bibee / Espino / Williams / Allen / etc.. facing a playoff hardened opponent than the oft injured Civale or the passing over of Zach Plesac..

...but no guarantee..

 

[CDAV45]

McKenzie replaces Bieber , but then who replaces McKenzie? Your arguement just doesn't cut it for me.

That's where you depend on the one of the other guys, part of the acquisition or the young talent to step in. My argument(which is really just an opinion) doesn't have to cut it for you, but that doesn't make it unjustified.

 

[sportscoach]

@macbdog

Angels & Guardians » Baseball Trade Values

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There ya go!

Cleveland gets
DH/SP Ohtani
OF Trout

Angels get
OF OGonz
SS Rocchio
SP Williams
SP Espino
2B Freeman

Boom! Make it happen Dolan!