25 GM OffSeason Thread

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I understand your point. But Bibee is the only one you can depend on. The rest is just potential. Now it's reasonable to assume some of that potential can be realized. But I wouldn't want to bet the house on it.
Williams and Ortiz seem hopeful for a successful 2025. Sadly, I see no reason for optimism for McKenzie. Lively is WYSIWYG. I think Cecconi and Allen still need grooming. Bieber will be coming back from surgery and you don't know what you get the 1st year back from surgery.
I think it will be extremely rare for a Guards SP to pitch into the 6th inning in 2025. That may be part of their reasoning for building a super bullpen.
For me, it's hard to say this is the starting rotation for a team with championship aspirations.
This is what you get with a young team and an organization that cannot play in the FA market. That isn't a complaint from me as I actually like the idea of building a WS caliber team using resources other than just money.

The only optimism I have when it comes to McKenzie is that Vogt said he is healthy and looking good. We'll see how long that lasts. Clearly he's proven he can be effective, but he's also proven that he struggles to remain healthy.

Right now, I think the pickup of Cecconi was brilliant. He's a strike thrower that could use help developing his change up. He's in the perfect organization for that.

I think that we'll see all of Bibee, Williams and Ortiz get through the 6th inning fairly frequently, but performance probably won't be the dictator all the time. BP usage and keeping everyone healthy will factor into how long the starters go.

As far as Bieber is concerned I agree with you. I actually stated in a prior post that control is usually the last thing to return and if Bieber doesn't have his control then he might not be as effective as we're hoping.

Thing about all this is that there are few teams, if any that have certainty when it comes to their rotations.
 
I think a lot of the handwringing over the supposed cost of acquiring King is due to following BTV, which is not very accurate.

King would have been our best SP last season.

A rotation of Bibee, King, Williams, Ortiz, and whoever gets the last spot, and the depth we would have, would give us a very competitive playoff caliber rotation. Throwing Bieber into the mix would make it one of the few truly elite rotations in the second half. Imagine having an Ortiz as the fifth starter.

Combined with our bullpen, it is probable that we would have the best pitching staff in the world not located in Los Angeles.

We would have five playoff caliber starters for four spots.

The pool to fill the bullpen would consist of...

Clase
Smith
Gaddis
Stephan
Sewald
Herrin
Lively
TMac
Allen
Walters
Sabrowski
Cecconi

Now, is it going to happen? Nope

But it should be considered.
 
This is what you get with a young team and an organization that cannot play in the FA market. That isn't a complaint from me as I actually like the idea of building a WS caliber team using resources other than just money.

The only optimism I have when it comes to McKenzie is that Vogt said he is healthy and looking good. We'll see how long that lasts. Clearly he's proven he can be effective, but he's also proven that he struggles to remain healthy.

Right now, I think the pickup of Cecconi was brilliant. He's a strike thrower that could use help developing his change up. He's in the perfect organization for that.

I think that we'll see all of Bibee, Williams and Ortiz get through the 6th inning fairly frequently, but performance probably won't be the dictator all the time. BP usage and keeping everyone healthy will factor into how long the starters go.

As far as Bieber is concerned I agree with you. I actually stated in a prior post that control is usually the last thing to return and if Bieber doesn't have his control then he might not be as effective as we're hoping.

Thing about all this is that there are few teams, if any that have certainty when it comes to their rotations.
The Guardians just have to keep Cecconi off the hill whenever they're playing a team from SoCal..

-when facing a SoCal squads (home or away).. Cecconi carries a 14.89 ERA and lasts just over 3 IP per outing, including five starts..
-when facing everyone else in MLB (home or away).. Cecconi carries an ERA over 10 runs lower and last nearly twice as long..

Sometimes.. you have to ignore statistics.. because these are more than just SSS.. they are bizarro-world..
 
I think a lot of the handwringing over the supposed cost of acquiring King is due to following BTV, which is not very accurate.

King would have been our best SP last season.

A rotation of Bibee, King, Williams, Ortiz, and whoever gets the last spot, and the depth we would have, would give us a very competitive playoff caliber rotation. Throwing Bieber into the mix would make it one of the few truly elite rotations in the second half. Imagine having an Ortiz as the fifth starter.

Combined with our bullpen, it is probable that we would have the best pitching staff in the world not located in Los Angeles.

We would have five playoff caliber starters for four spots.

The pool to fill the bullpen would consist of...

Clase
Smith
Gaddis
Stephan
Sewald
Herrin
Lively
TMac
Allen
Walters
Sabrowski
Cecconi

Now, is it going to happen? Nope

But it should be considered.

The problem is BTV actually hasn't been that far off with SPs lately and if they been off, they are normally too low...

Either way, King is going to cost more than Cleveland is willing to spend prospect wise for a rental... I mean Cobb cost us Bresnahan and Furman, which Bresnahan is now a ranked prospect for them... Furman has a solid floor, so he could sneak under the radar...

If I am the Padres, cutting cap is cool, but I am not trading King when I am close enough to a wild card birth unless I get what I want since if I am out at the trade deadline, he is likely to bring back some value then too... He's a great idea, but way too costly... Fedde is cheaper, but still too expensive for my tastes prospect wise...

I feel like IF this was the last year we had JRam and the main nucleus, you get a King... but we have team control over everyone but the FAs we signed this off season (Bieber, Hedges, Sewald and Santana). Hedges would stay here with no qualms... Sewald and Santana are closer to retiring, and Bieber is looking for a nice pay day... But you literally will be returning 36 players with a top farm system... Then you have a crew at or near MLB ready in DeLauter, Bazzana, Kayfus, etc...

We have a better team in 26 on paper than we do in 25... 27/28 we have a projected better team than 26... I think you skip the rentals until mid season and let these guys play
 
Anyone want to see about Yoan Moncada in camp? Especially if we can wait til after Fry can be put on the 60 day IL or do we wanna stay with on house for 2B?
 
I think a lot of the handwringing over the supposed cost of acquiring King is due to following BTV, which is not very accurate.

King would have been our best SP last season.

A rotation of Bibee, King, Williams, Ortiz, and whoever gets the last spot, and the depth we would have, would give us a very competitive playoff caliber rotation. Throwing Bieber into the mix would make it one of the few truly elite rotations in the second half. Imagine having an Ortiz as the fifth starter.

Combined with our bullpen, it is probable that we would have the best pitching staff in the world not located in Los Angeles.

We would have five playoff caliber starters for four spots.

The pool to fill the bullpen would consist of...

Clase
Smith
Gaddis
Stephan
Sewald
Herrin
Lively
TMac
Allen
Walters
Sabrowski
Cecconi

Now, is it going to happen? Nope

But it should be considered.
Actually CATS, they are typically pretty damn accurate, but I still hold a lot of skepticism when it comes to their valuations.

I can only speak for myself, but BTV doesn't influence what I'd like to see happen at all. Coach on the other hand......

Like I said, King would be a damn good addition, but I think they are satisfied in the short term with the options they already have. Admittedly, I could be wrong.
 
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We have a better team in 26 on paper than we do in 25... 27/28 we have a projected better team than 26... I think you skip the rentals until mid season and let these guys play
I fully agree with you here even though I don't want to. I'm tired of them trying to balance cost, readiness and control. My patience is running thin.
 
I fully agree with you here even though I don't want to. I'm tired of them trying to balance cost, readiness and control. My patience is running thin.

Yeah, I get that part, but we made the Miller trade in 16, but our best team was 17...

I am guessing at the trade deadline, they will look to pull another Miller trade (though with a bat)...

I think next off season, they gotta start rolling for a big trade/FA signing...
 
Yeah, I get that part, but we made the Miller trade in 16, but our best team was 17...

I am guessing at the trade deadline, they will look to pull another Miller trade (though with a bat)...

I think next off season, they gotta start rolling for a big trade/FA signing...
They might not need to trade for a bat or they might need to trade for 3. WTF knows and that's a big part of the problem with such a young team.
 
They might not need to trade for a bat or they might need to trade for 3. WTF knows and that's a big part of the problem with such a young team.

Yeah, hence why I think it's too soon to put so much into a rental even if they are good...

Though I think they will make a bunch of minor moves here soon... we have 3-4 guys going to the 60 day IL as well, so I wouldn't even be surprised to see us snag guys off of waivers just to fill the 40 man roster/AAA spots if none of the NRI guys make the MLB roster...
 
A few thoughts...

1) Many of us are still talking about next year. Weve been talking about 'next year' since when? 2022? That kind of next year never comes.

2) If you read BTVs own analyses of the bigger trades made this off season, you will find that they admit many of them did not match their models...and many of the ones that they claim did were labeled as big overpays, or big underpays.

An example...

Gavin Lux 13.6 for

Mike Sirota 1.9
Comp A. 4.1

13.6 for 6 fits their model...lol.

In the words of Harry Doyle....just a little bit outside.

I looked at fifteen of the trades.

By their own admission, they missed on five. Another five they admitted were major under or over pays...which means they weren't accurate.

Four were considered minor misses, one of which was the Jays taking Straw (-9.3) and a PTBNL/cash for $3.75 mil and two million in bonus space (2.0). In no way was that close to an even trade.

One trade...ONE...was on the money, according to BTV.

Anybody who is paying for BTV is being bamboozled.
 
An interesting trade proposal is re-emerging between the Mets and Orioles.. The trade was proposed as a hypothetical a few weeks back.. and has been brought back as the Mets' 1B, Pete "Oso Blanco" Alonso & his Agent (Scot Boras) have come to an impasse.. or what appears to be an impasse. The deal that was (past tense) described was:

The Orioles get Blade Tidwell and Jack Wenninger, both pitchers.. neither destined to be opening the season in Baltimore in 2025
The Mets get Ryan Mountcastle (6.8 MM owed for 2025 plus 2026 ARB III salary to be determined).. The Mets are well over the CBT threshold and are absolutely multiple offenders.. so, Mountcastle's Salary would actually be double..

Mountcastle would be a fine complement to the Guardians 1B/DH spot against LHP's.. Over the past two years, Mountcastle has exceed .900 OPS against LHP's.. The two arms the Orioles would be getting in return are a 45 & 40 level prospects or worse. Tidwell is a 45 only because he throws hard.. He will become a MiLB FA in December 2025. Wenninger, a year later.. Essentially, two guys with a LOT to prove and not much time to do it in..

The Guardians can surpass this offer.. if they feel they would want the two years of control of Mountcastle.. Perhaps, Humphries/Messick would be enough to bring Ryan Mountcastle to the Northcoast?.. and.. the collateral advantage would be the Mets still needing a 1B..

Thoughts?
 
An interesting trade proposal is re-emerging between the Mets and Orioles.. The trade was proposed as a hypothetical a few weeks back.. and has been brought back as the Mets' 1B, Pete "Oso Blanco" Alonso & his Agent (Scot Boras) have come to an impasse.. or what appears to be an impasse. The deal that was (past tense) described was:

The Orioles get Blade Tidwell and Jack Wenninger, both pitchers.. neither destined to be opening the season in Baltimore in 2025
The Mets get Ryan Mountcastle (6.8 MM owed for 2025 plus 2026 ARB III salary to be determined).. The Mets are well over the CBT threshold and are absolutely multiple offenders.. so, Mountcastle's Salary would actually be double..

Mountcastle would be a fine complement to the Guardians 1B/DH spot against LHP's.. Over the past two years, Mountcastle has exceed .900 OPS against LHP's.. The two arms the Orioles would be getting in return are a 45 & 40 level prospects or worse. Tidwell is a 45 only because he throws hard.. He will become a MiLB FA in December 2025. Wenninger, a year later.. Essentially, two guys with a LOT to prove and not much time to do it in..

The Guardians can surpass this offer.. if they feel they would want the two years of control of Mountcastle.. Perhaps, Humphries/Messick would be enough to bring Ryan Mountcastle to the Northcoast?.. and.. the collateral advantage would be the Mets still needing a 1B..

Thoughts?

If we didn't sign Santana, I'd absolutely would say yes... We can't field Montcastle, Manzardo and Santana...

Now, if we acquire someone who can play corner OF and 1B then I can see our FO considering it... Mountcastle has played off of 1B and honestly his numbers were pretty bad defensively and that was LF and 3B... two spots that aren't open anyways...
 
If we didn't sign Santana, I'd absolutely would say yes... We can't field Montcastle, Manzardo and Santana...

Now, if we acquire someone who can play corner OF and 1B then I can see our FO considering it... Mountcastle has played off of 1B and honestly his numbers were pretty bad defensively and that was LF and 3B... two spots that aren't open anyways...
Yes we can..
 

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