25 GM OffSeason Thread

sportscoach said:
Thomas still doesn't have very good career numbers against RH pitching...

In 1300+ ABs, he's a .680 OPS... Was better in 23 at .719 OPS...

Vs LHP in 570 ABs he's got an .880 OPS...

The dude still has some work to do on hitting right handers better, that an opinion, but a fact...

Another factor is the fact we lack any OBP types to lead off in the organization... Tell me who actually gets on base?

Kwan OBP .358, JRam OBP .335,

Santana had .328 OBP% last season

Naylor was traded, Fry is out... Then the next guys is Brennan at .309... Brennan doesn't take walks... he had what a 5% BB rate... Freeman then Schneeman and people are trying to get rid of Schneeman... Rocchio isn't bad with taking walks, but he hasn't shown he can hit above thr mendoza yet...

We don't have a good lineup without him, on paper... Our veterans would be Santana at age 39... Thomas with those splits I mentioned... We need someone to hit infront of JRam... Whose gonna do that?

Looking at who wants Kwan... It's gonna be contenders... It's not gonna be a rebuilding club... Which makes his return, more prospects/low amount of MLB time... Teams are gonna want Kwan to add to their veterans...

Trading Kwan, regardless of return, even worse if it's a return of a pitcher, will put this team unable to properly score most runs...

This team hit better when someone was on base last season and guys have shit OBP outside of Kwan...

Plus we have JRam for a few more seasons, you gotta keep someone with them especially the best leadoff guy in baseball and one of the better hitters, when healthy, in baseball.

Tell me who leads off if we trade Kwan?
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No worries.

Kwan is not gonna be traded anytime soon, and certainly not this year. The idea is ridiculous.

BTW, neither is JRam, Bo, Rocchio, Clase, Smith, Bibee, Williams, Ortiz, or Manzardo. Core players with multiple years of control and low cost dont get traded when we are in an era of contention.
 
sportscoach said:
Thomas still doesn't have very good career numbers against RH pitching...

In 1300+ ABs, he's a .680 OPS... Was better in 23 at .719 OPS...

Vs LHP in 570 ABs he's got an .880 OPS...

The dude still has some work to do on hitting right handers better, that an opinion, but a fact...

Another factor is the fact we lack any OBP types to lead off in the organization... Tell me who actually gets on base?

Kwan OBP .358, JRam OBP .335,

Santana had .328 OBP% last season

Naylor was traded, Fry is out... Then the next guys is Brennan at .309... Brennan doesn't take walks... he had what a 5% BB rate... Freeman then Schneeman and people are trying to get rid of Schneeman... Rocchio isn't bad with taking walks, but he hasn't shown he can hit above thr mendoza yet...

We don't have a good lineup without him, on paper... Our veterans would be Santana at age 39... Thomas with those splits I mentioned... We need someone to hit infront of JRam... Whose gonna do that?

Looking at who wants Kwan... It's gonna be contenders... It's not gonna be a rebuilding club... Which makes his return, more prospects/low amount of MLB time... Teams are gonna want Kwan to add to their veterans...

Trading Kwan, regardless of return, even worse if it's a return of a pitcher, will put this team unable to properly score most runs...

This team hit better when someone was on base last season and guys have shit OBP outside of Kwan...

Plus we have JRam for a few more seasons, you gotta keep someone with them especially the best leadoff guy in baseball and one of the better hitters, when healthy, in baseball.

Tell me who leads off if we trade Kwan?
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Nope! Thomas' career numbers against RHP aren't very good. Who are you going to put in CF that is better? I suggested dealing him and Gaddis to the Dodgers for Sheehan and Pages. Don't know if they'd do that, but they could really use Gaddis and they wouldn't be losing out by getting Thomas either.

Brito's biggest asset as a hitter is his discipline and contact ability(OBP). Rocchio's offensive issues doesn't include the lack of plate discipline. His walk rate last season was 11.5%. Give me Brito followed by Rocchio and JRam.

As things stand now, we don't have a good lineup with Kwan either.

If Seattle is in need of a hitter like Kwan and values him as you do then I'm sure they'll be willing to deal one of their numerous starters. According to BTV, who you frequently refer to, our beloved Guardians should be able to get Miller and another good piece for Kwan. I don't believe that for one damn second, but it wouldn't hurt to ask because I believe Kwan's value to the Guardians is going to start dwindling.
 
CATS44 said:
No worries.

Kwan is not gonna be traded anytime soon, and certainly not this year. The idea is ridiculous.

BTW, neither is JRam, Bo, Rocchio, Clase, Smith, Bibee, Williams, Ortiz, or Manzardo. Core players with multiple years of control and low cost dont get traded when we are in an era of contention.
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....unless the FO sees likely regression coming and has a house full of ready prospects that can hit. If they're as smart as we clamour then their listening and asking questions.

While I agree that Kwan probably isn't going to get traded anytime soon, the idea is far from ridiculous.

I wouldn't bet my life savings on Clase getting dealt either. If they're not looking good by the break I'd guess you are going to go into a severe depression. Better keep the Prozac and Zoloft in the medicine cabinet.
 
Kwan is probably not going to be traded for a year or more but I will not be surprised to see him traded before Garrett (before NFL season) either. It is dependent on a few things
1) Willingness to sign a contract (and FO willing to offer contract)
2) Where we are in July
3) Progress of Martinez, DeLauter, Brito and even Halpin/Noel (to take over the OF for Kwan, Lane and RF). As we can't fill all 3 OF positions at once, this maybe the biggest hold up on who replaces him. Churio is probably the one in CF and lead-off but he is 2 years away. But, if Martinez takes over CF (or Lane resigns) and DeLauter comes up, then just need Halpin or Brito to take over LF (if Bazzana takes over 2nd). But, a lot of ifs....

In reality, we know the sweet spot in FO window is 1-2 years left on contract. But, it is also very dependent on where FO sees our window (which is only a guess from us but Twins, Detroit and KC progress doesn't help our window). I read some comments that we held onto Brantley, Miller, Shaw and Allen till they expired but that was in 2018 when we came off of a WS run in 2016, 100+ win season in 2017 and were up by 9 games in 2018 in our division at deadline. It didn't help that Brantley was injured and relievers took a huge step back in 2018 where holding onto one last hope at WS dwarfed what we could get in return.

Major Trades - In prior years, it came with 1-1/2 to 2 years left on contract

People will point to Lindor and his 1 year left. But, this came when people speculated that he would resign the biggest contract in Indians history only for Dolan to pull it due to COVID financials. But, we also have to remember the 2022 signing of Ramirez that came with hours of a trade (not boarding team plane to opening day from ST) with 2 years left.

Civale came with 2-1/2 years left on his contract (and we were only 1 game out of the division but no pitching with Bieber and McK at that point to be a serious WS contender).
Kluber came with 1 year left but that was because he was injured the prior season.
Naylor came with 1 year left (did that push FO into a trade and Santana signing or was it because we got Cecconi?)

The two questions on timing are really Clevinger and Bauer. Both traded with 1-1/2 years left but was that due to their antics or part of a plan to see where we were in the hunt those years and the antics just cost us trade value (not the impetus of the trade)? In reality, if Plesac stayed on, couldn't Clevinger as well? So would they have been traded anyways with 1-1/2 left, even despite being contenders?

Years left on contract
1-year - Thomas, Santana, Hedges, Bieber and Sewald
2-years - would have been McK but due to time in minors he falls a few days short (at 3.168 now)
3-years - Kwan, McK and Hentges
 
Petes999 said:
Kwan is probably not going to be traded for a year or more but I will not be surprised to see him traded before Garrett (before NFL season) either. It is dependent on a few things
1) Willingness to sign a contract (and FO willing to offer contract)
2) Where we are in July
3) Progress of Martinez, DeLauter, Brito and even Halpin/Noel (to take over the OF for Kwan, Lane and RF). As we can't fill all 3 OF positions at once, this maybe the biggest hold up on who replaces him. Churio is probably the one in CF and lead-off but he is 2 years away. But, if Martinez takes over CF (or Lane resigns) and DeLauter comes up, then just need Halpin or Brito to take over LF (if Bazzana takes over 2nd). But, a lot of ifs....

In reality, we know the sweet spot in FO window is 1-2 years left on contract. But, it is also very dependent on where FO sees our window (which is only a guess from us but Twins, Detroit and KC progress doesn't help our window). I read some comments that we held onto Brantley, Miller, Shaw and Allen till they expired but that was in 2018 when we came off of a WS run in 2016, 100+ win season in 2017 and were up by 9 games in 2018 in our division at deadline. It didn't help that Brantley was injured and relievers took a huge step back in 2018 where holding onto one last hope at WS dwarfed what we could get in return.

Major Trades - In prior years, it came with 1-1/2 to 2 years left on contract

People will point to Lindor and his 1 year left. But, this came when people speculated that he would resign the biggest contract in Indians history only for Dolan to pull it due to COVID financials. But, we also have to remember the 2022 signing of Ramirez that came with hours of a trade (not boarding team plane to opening day from ST) with 2 years left.

Civale came with 2-1/2 years left on his contract (and we were only 1 game out of the division but no pitching with Bieber and McK at that point to be a serious WS contender).
Kluber came with 1 year left but that was because he was injured the prior season.
Naylor came with 1 year left (did that push FO into a trade and Santana signing or was it because we got Cecconi?)

The two questions on timing are really Clevinger and Bauer. Both traded with 1-1/2 years left but was that due to their antics or part of a plan to see where we were in the hunt those years and the antics just cost us trade value (not the impetus of the trade)? In reality, if Plesac stayed on, couldn't Clevinger as well? So would they have been traded anyways with 1-1/2 left, even despite being contenders?

Years left on contract
1-year - Thomas, Santana, Hedges, Bieber and Sewald
2-years - would have been McK but due to time in minors he falls a few days short (at 3.168 now)
3-years - Kwan, McK and Hentges
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I'm looking at the fact this team is going to be together for the next few seasons+... I'm thinking we actually keep Kwan until he walks into free agency... Who knows, he may end up being offered a QO...
 
sportscoach said:
I'm looking at the fact this team is going to be together for the next few seasons+... I'm thinking we actually keep Kwan until he walks into free agency... Who knows, he may end up being offered a QO...
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"...being together for the next few seasons+..." isn't a fact...
 
sportscoach said:
The nucleus of this group will be together for the next few seasons easily
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It all depends on if FO sees this group as being together for a few years or not. As there is only 1 or 2 that come up and succeed in a year, it is important to start extending guys beyond Ramirez and Clase. They tried and failed with Gimi and Straw. Also, guys usually just don't work out starting in year 1 or 2 where they may give you a good/great year 3 and 4 before you start they trade process in year 5 and 6. Then the Big 4 of Williams, Bibee, Cantillo and then Espino was suppose to be Ace of this staff never was healthy enough to create a staff to complete vs Minni and Det. The question is if there is enough to build around like 2016. In 2016, we had extended:
Santana from 2012-2017
Kipnis 2014 - 2020
Kluber 2015 - 2019
Jose 2017-2023
Carrasco 2015-2020
Gomes 2014-2021
Brantley even got his pre-arb years bought out
Even Tomlin was extended 2016-2018
Brought in Napoli (then EE in 2017) and others ... Right now, I just don't see them starting to lock down a core to build around.
A group of players is hard to get together we need in just 4-5 years of service before you start looking to move onto the next prospect. It is up to FO IF they keep this group together with extensions or start trading them in the next year or two.
 
There may be another consideration when it comes to long term extensions.

Blitzer has an option to take over the franchise in either 2027 or 2028, depending upon how the agreement was written. The agreement was approved by MLB in June of 2022, (2028) but was probably signed before the season. (2027)

New ownership often wishes the books to be cleared by the time it takes over. Any contract that extends into Blitzers ownership may, or more likely would, require his okay.

Given the history of long term contracts, the later years are the time the piper gets paid. Paying the piper after the production has ended is not something a new owner likes. Kinda like paying a new car price for one that is three years old, because it has always ran great.

In Kwans case, he arrived late to the party, and will be 30 when he becomes a FA. He's gonna want an extension that goes well beyond buying out a year or two of free agency. I'm not sure the present and future situations allow for a mutually beneficial extension.

******

On another note, I wonder if the Gimenez trade is effecting the thinking of our younger players. If they didn't understand it before, they now know that a long term contract doesn't mean Cleveland is going to be their long term home.

There aren't many Jose Ramirezes around, guys that are willing to give major concessions in order to have a permanent home. But there may be some in this org. It is now highly unlikely that there are gonna be hometown discounts, unless they are connected to no trade clauses.
 
I don't know what to make of future extensions after the Gimenez and Straw debacles. I understand why they were so aggressive, but looking back they seem a bit risky.

It's not only Kwan's age, but his hamstring issues that date back to his college days. I hope he's over them, but those things often get worse with age.

If they are going to extend players early, I anticipate that it will be guys like Manzardo whose offensive upside is a bit more predictable.
 
CDAV45 said:
I don't know what to make of future extensions after the Gimenez and Straw debacles. I understand why they were so aggressive, but looking back they seem a bit risky.

It's not only Kwan's age, but his hamstring issues that date back to his college days. I hope he's over them, but those things often get worse with age.

If they are going to extend players early, I anticipate that it will be guys like Manzardo whose offensive upside is a bit more predictable.
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My problem with Kwan is that he is a high contact, low power, GG LF. He is a prototype leadoff hitter. Those are all good things. Especially if your lineup is loaded with boppers that can drive him in. But that's not the Guards. (It hasn't been that since the 90's.)
Kwan would be perfect for the Yanks, Mets, or Dodgers. I'm sure he will be handsomely rewarded by somebody like that when he hits FA. The Guards should trade him before that.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
My problem with Kwan is that he is a high contact, low power, GG LF. He is a prototype leadoff hitter. Those are all good things. Especially if your lineup is loaded with boppers that can drive him in. But that's not the Guards. (It hasn't been that since the 90's.)
Kwan would be perfect for the Yanks, Mets, or Dodgers. I'm sure he will be handsomely rewarded by somebody like that when he hits FA. The Guards should trade him before that.
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Who's leadoff then? We were horrible in OBP% last season...
 
sportscoach said:
Who's leadoff then? We were horrible in OBP% last season...
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If we trade Kwan, we are not really lining up for the WS for a year or two. Thus, do you think the FO is worried about lead-off hitter if they are building for the future and have Churio coming up at some point. Plus, do you think we are not going to get anything back that can be a plug-and-play?

Plus, Genao will be up in 2 years (Akron this year and Columbus next). He can fill in with a high BA and 8% walk rate. Has some nice speed as well. Martinez could fill in till then too. Not, the best, but a trade is more about what is going to happen long-term than right now. They aren't going to say, I think we will keep Kwan for 3 years and get nothing in return because we don't have a better lead-off hitter than him.

Rocchio won't be bad too (on occasion) if he is more like the playoffs than regular season (needs to be .280 hitter though with a decent walk rate -- probably too patient). Okay a bit of a stretch. But, long-term it is Churio or Genao.
 
CDAV45 said:
OBP% doesn't mean shit if you can't hit them in. Might be why this team didn't perform any worse when Kwan was injured and not playing.
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Kwan had a 200 AB triple slash of line:

.206 / .316 / .302

post all star break last year.. during which time, the club went to the ALCS. Getting a leadoff hitting guy who with an OBP a shade over .300 might not be all that difficult to replace.. At least not to the extent being bandied about..

Win or whine.. if the team is better w/ Kwan traded.. then Kwan gets traded.. Personally, like many here with a reasoned opinion, we'd love to see the pre all star numbers for an entire year from Kwan.. Alas..he's not done it.. but has shown he can.. I'd prefer he showed it while wearing the Guardians' Red White and Blue..
 
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