25 GM OffSeason Thread

[sportscoach]

If we trade Kwan, we are not really lining up for the WS for a year or two. Thus, do you think the FO is worried about lead-off hitter if they are building for the future and have Churio coming up at some point. Plus, do you think we are not going to get anything back that can be a plug-and-play?

Plus, Genao will be up in 2 years (Akron this year and Columbus next). He can fill in with a high BA and 8% walk rate. Has some nice speed as well. Martinez could fill in till then too. Not, the best, but a trade is more about what is going to happen long-term than right now. They aren't going to say, I think we will keep Kwan for 3 years and get nothing in return because we don't have a better lead-off hitter than him.

Rocchio won't be bad too (on occasion) if he is more like the playoffs than regular season (needs to be .280 hitter though with a decent walk rate -- probably too patient). Okay a bit of a stretch. But, long-term it is Churio or Genao.

Chourio and Genao are years away, so yes, they could replace him then...

We don't have a catalyst for this offense without Kwan... Martinez and Freeman both hit well in the leadoff spot when Kwan got hurt but the stats didn't back them up to keep doing it otherwise neither of them would have been sent down....

Yes we will get some plug and play in the deal, I know that one, but at the same time, we aren't going to get anyone who is proven since the biggest offers will be mostly a group of propsects with one MLB ready guy likely in the deal...

Seattle we could make sure Canzone in the deal, etc...

Problem is with anything you project, no one will likely be proven... We are going into the seasons trading our leadoff hitter and 4th hitter, still having no proven #2 bat, then our veterans to help JRam are Thomas and Santana... Santana is 39 years old... Thomas, still has some splits issues...

This isn't OOTP where experience doesn't effect a numbers outcome... In reality you are running 6 pre-arb players in the lineup every single day... 5 when you start Hedges... You need veterans on the roster... You need a table setter and Kwan is one of the best in the league at that and as Bimbo pointed out, he's not just a leadoff guy, but towards the top in baseball in hitting in general...

Who leads off? Who takes pitches and works counts?

JRam isn't even a take pitches type honestly... Right now, teams aren't even going to pitch to him... If you don't get someone who can work counts, and get on base in front of him, he's gonna be walked or worked around every single time...

A lineup vs righties...

Kwan, Manzardo?, JRam, Santana, Thomas, Brennan?, Brito?, Naylor, Rocchio...

A lineup vs lefties...

Kwan, Thomas?, JRam, Santana, Noel? Brito?, Arias, Naylor?, Rocchio

Then if we move Kwan... Yes we may get some top talent back, but I can't see any team giving us a guy that can even help us with our current issues... One of our current issues is OBP%... Bottom half in the league in both OBP% and SLG%...

In simulations, which I have done plenty of, a contact team has to be in the top 5ish in OBP% to be able to win games over the long haul... Which means we needed to be 20 points higher as a team... We had 3 hitters who even got to that number last season...

On paper, we have to add to Kwan to compete... We aren't gonna do shit without Kwan cause we don't have the power numbers to make up for losing the OBP guy... Plus his ability to take pitches actually helped the guys behind him, since they got to see the pitcher go through his pitches... Who else is gonna do that? Aka If we move Kwan, Santana now leads off, or has to hit in front of JRam... Who is now behind JRam?

Kwan had a 200 AB triple slash of line:

.206 / .316 / .302

post all star break last year.. during which time, the club went to the ALCS. Getting a leadoff hitting guy who with an OBP a shade over .300 might not be all that difficult to replace.. At least not to the extent being bandied about..

Win or whine.. if the team is better w/ Kwan traded.. then Kwan gets traded.. Personally, like many here with a reasoned opinion, we'd love to see the pre all star numbers for an entire year from Kwan.. Alas..he's not done it.. but has shown he can.. I'd prefer he showed it while wearing the Guardians' Red White and Blue..

Truth be told a .316 OBP% was still better than everyone but JRam and Naylor last season...

 

[Petes999]

Chourio and Genao are years away, so yes, they could replace him then...

We don't have a catalyst for this offense without Kwan... Martinez and Freeman both hit well in the leadoff spot when Kwan got hurt but the stats didn't back them up to keep doing it otherwise neither of them would have been sent down....

Yes we will get some plug and play in the deal, I know that one, but at the same time, we aren't going to get anyone who is proven since the biggest offers will be mostly a group of propsects with one MLB ready guy likely in the deal...

Seattle we could make sure Canzone in the deal, etc...

Problem is with anything you project, no one will likely be proven... We are going into the seasons trading our leadoff hitter and 4th hitter, still having no proven #2 bat, then our veterans to help JRam are Thomas and Santana... Santana is 39 years old... Thomas, still has some splits issues...

This isn't OOTP where experience doesn't effect a numbers outcome... In reality you are running 6 pre-arb players in the lineup every single day... 5 when you start Hedges... You need veterans on the roster... You need a table setter and Kwan is one of the best in the league at that and as Bimbo pointed out, he's not just a leadoff guy, but towards the top in baseball in hitting in general...

Who leads off? Who takes pitches and works counts?

JRam isn't even a take pitches type honestly... Right now, teams aren't even going to pitch to him... If you don't get someone who can work counts, and get on base in front of him, he's gonna be walked or worked around every single time...

A lineup vs righties...

Kwan, Manzardo?, JRam, Santana, Thomas, Brennan?, Brito?, Naylor, Rocchio...

A lineup vs lefties...

Kwan, Thomas?, JRam, Santana, Noel? Brito?, Arias, Naylor?, Rocchio

Then if we move Kwan... Yes we may get some top talent back, but I can't see any team giving us a guy that can even help us with our current issues... One of our current issues is OBP%... Bottom half in the league in both OBP% and SLG%...

In simulations, which I have done plenty of, a contact team has to be in the top 5ish in OBP% to be able to win games over the long haul... Which means we needed to be 20 points higher as a team... We had 3 hitters who even got to that number last season...

On paper, we have to add to Kwan to compete... We aren't gonna do shit without Kwan cause we don't have the power numbers to make up for losing the OBP guy... Plus his ability to take pitches actually helped the guys behind him, since they got to see the pitcher go through his pitches... Who else is gonna do that? Aka If we move Kwan, Santana now leads off, or has to hit in front of JRam... Who is now behind JRam?



Truth be told a .316 OBP% was still better than everyone but JRam and Naylor last season...

You say Genao is years away... but there are two scenarios
1) Rocchio sucks this year and Genao spends most of his time in AA. That means he is up sometime in 2026 after 1/2 year at AAA in 26.
2) Rocchio finally hits and takes walks ... then he can be lead-off and they wait bringing Genao up...
Part of me thinks that they see something in either Rocchio or Arias otherwise they would not have traded Gimenez without a viable SS ready. Yet, in the same breath, if they traded Gimenez without a viable SS then why they hell will they hold onto Kwan without a viable lead-off? They don't worry about final roster construction until they are really ready to make a deep playoff run. We are not there yet (still trying to find all the pieces that fit in their window. Kwan's window maybe closing in Cleveland (1-1/2 - 2 years before a trade is needed).

And, if you listen to our insider, it is common for someone like Martinez to be called up and then sent back down to finish things up. Putting Kwan in leadoff and not being sent down is the exception, not the rule (as people are pointing out with Manzardo).

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Let me be clear. I am not in favor of trading Kwan anytime soon. (unless you are overwhelmed with an offer). He is one of the best leadoff hitters and LF in MLB. He is not a FA until 2028. Although if he has a typical season, he will be close to the highest paid Guardian soon.

But in many ways, I view the 25 Guards as a bridge lineup and roster.
Santana, Lane Thomas, are not long term Guardians. Brito, even if successful, will not be at 2B in 2026. In fact, if he hits as expected, LF might be a good transition spot for him.

 

[sportscoach]

Let me be clear. I am not in favor of trading Kwan anytime soon. (unless you are overwhelmed with an offer). He is one of the best leadoff hitters and LF in MLB. He is not a FA until 2028. Although if he has a typical season, he will be close to the highest paid Guardian soon.

But in many ways, I view the 25 Guards as a bridge lineup and roster.
Santana, Lane Thomas, are not long term Guardians. Brito, even if successful, will not be at 2B in 2026. In fact, if he hits as expected, LF might be a good transition spot for him.

We just can't keep moving veterans and running unprovens though... I feel like Kwan is a guy we need to extend and build around at least while JRam is here...

 

[Criznit]

Chourio and Genao are years away, so yes, they could replace him then...

We don't have a catalyst for this offense without Kwan... Martinez and Freeman both hit well in the leadoff spot when Kwan got hurt but the stats didn't back them up to keep doing it otherwise neither of them would have been sent down....

Yes we will get some plug and play in the deal, I know that one, but at the same time, we aren't going to get anyone who is proven since the biggest offers will be mostly a group of propsects with one MLB ready guy likely in the deal...

Seattle we could make sure Canzone in the deal, etc...

Problem is with anything you project, no one will likely be proven... We are going into the seasons trading our leadoff hitter and 4th hitter, still having no proven #2 bat, then our veterans to help JRam are Thomas and Santana... Santana is 39 years old... Thomas, still has some splits issues...

This isn't OOTP where experience doesn't effect a numbers outcome... In reality you are running 6 pre-arb players in the lineup every single day... 5 when you start Hedges... You need veterans on the roster... You need a table setter and Kwan is one of the best in the league at that and as Bimbo pointed out, he's not just a leadoff guy, but towards the top in baseball in hitting in general...

Who leads off? Who takes pitches and works counts?

JRam isn't even a take pitches type honestly... Right now, teams aren't even going to pitch to him... If you don't get someone who can work counts, and get on base in front of him, he's gonna be walked or worked around every single time...

A lineup vs righties...

Kwan, Manzardo?, JRam, Santana, Thomas, Brennan?, Brito?, Naylor, Rocchio...

A lineup vs lefties...

Kwan, Thomas?, JRam, Santana, Noel? Brito?, Arias, Naylor?, Rocchio

Then if we move Kwan... Yes we may get some top talent back, but I can't see any team giving us a guy that can even help us with our current issues... One of our current issues is OBP%... Bottom half in the league in both OBP% and SLG%...

In simulations, which I have done plenty of, a contact team has to be in the top 5ish in OBP% to be able to win games over the long haul... Which means we needed to be 20 points higher as a team... We had 3 hitters who even got to that number last season...

On paper, we have to add to Kwan to compete... We aren't gonna do shit without Kwan cause we don't have the power numbers to make up for losing the OBP guy... Plus his ability to take pitches actually helped the guys behind him, since they got to see the pitcher go through his pitches... Who else is gonna do that? Aka If we move Kwan, Santana now leads off, or has to hit in front of JRam... Who is now behind JRam?



Truth be told a .316 OBP% was still better than everyone but JRam and Naylor last season...

Genao is not "years" away... Injuries/missed time is the only reason he isn't already in AAA/knocking on the door. If he continues to improve at the plate or even maintains his current numbers, he finishes the year in Columbus which lines up with a 2026 debut. Hell, if he breaks out in a "major" way in 2025, he could end up debuting this year.... Of course a 2025 debut would be surprising and would probably mean he's kicking ass, and/or our "current" options are not.

 

[sportscoach]

Genao is not "years" away... Injuries/missed time is the only reason he isn't already in AAA/knocking on the door. If he continues to improve at the plate or even maintains his current numbers, he finishes the year in Columbus which lines up with a 2026 debut. Hell, if he breaks out in a "major" way in 2025, he could end up debuting this year.... Of course a 2025 debut would be surprising and would probably mean he's kicking ass, and/or our "current" options are not.

Genao finished the season at A+... Going by how they normally operate...

Genao in 25... starts in A+ finishes in AA...

Genao in 26... starts AA finishes in AAA...

Genao in 27... Add to the 40 man, starts in AAA with a MLB debut later that season...

That's a couple years away...

Now injuries and/or ineffectiveness could change the timeline, but that's what I am expecting, which is what they normally do with guys like him...

 

[Mott the Hoople]

We just can't keep moving veterans and running unprovens though... I feel like Kwan is a guy we need to extend and build around at least while JRam is here...

Unfortunately, the word "extension" should not be in your vocabulary when talking about the Guardians. It only happens in extremely rare or unusual circumstances, (JRam hometown discount / Bieber rehab). After the Straw and Gimenez fiascos they will be gun shy.
It didn't happen with Naylor. It won't happen with Kwan. (That said, I'll hold out hope for Bibee. He's almost 26 and won't be a FA till 2029.

 

[Gson]

Unfortunately, the word "extension" should not be in your vocabulary when talking about the Guardians. It only happens in extremely rare or unusual circumstances, (JRam hometown discount / Bieber rehab). After the Straw and Gimenez fiascos they will be gun shy.
It didn't happen with Naylor. It won't happen with Kwan. (That said, I'll hold out hope for Bibee. He's almost 26 and won't be a FA till 2029.

The unusual circumstances are team control running out when the player is reaching his first full season over the age of 30.. Then, extension makes the most sense for the player.. and both parties know it.. When it's a kid that's barely in the second have of his 20's decade.. then, as you've said, unusual for a player to sign an extension, certainly...

That doesn't mean a player dislikes being here (the north coast)..it's that they are more valuable to the north coast than they would be anywhere else.. Kwan <== has a chance.. because he's had a few streaks of "cautionary" play, a few streaks of incredible play & is beloved by the fans and club.. We'll see..

 

[sportscoach]

Unfortunately, the word "extension" should not be in your vocabulary when talking about the Guardians. It only happens in extremely rare or unusual circumstances, (JRam hometown discount / Bieber rehab). After the Straw and Gimenez fiascos they will be gun shy.
It didn't happen with Naylor. It won't happen with Kwan. (That said, I'll hold out hope for Bibee. He's almost 26 and won't be a FA till 2029.

Cleveland is the one who designed these type of extensions and every single run that they had lately, they had multiple players on extensions....

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland offered some type of extension to Kwan... We will know at the end of spring...

 

[CDAV45]

We just can't keep moving veterans and running unprovens though... I feel like Kwan is a guy we need to extend and build around at least while JRam is here...

Sure we can and this team has already had a couple spells without Kwan and did just fine thank you. Having said that....answer my f'n question or are you going to just keep telling us how you feel and act as if they wouldn't be able to experience success without the likes of Hedges and Sewald?

I'm sure they've already had discussions if now or later is the best time to deal Kwan. It can be debated rationally from both sides. What can be easily made convincable is the idea that Kwan should not be given an costly extension that takes him into his mid 30's. Absolutely no fuckin' way this club can take that chance unless Blitzer is going to infuse enough money that Kwan's fade into oblivion can be covered without effecting the roster construction.

Regardless, you cannot convince me that dealing Kwan for a player the quality of Bryce Miller is going to hurt this team. Just as likely to dramatically improve it.

 

[CDAV45]

Let me be clear. I am not in favor of trading Kwan anytime soon. (unless you are overwhelmed with an offer). He is one of the best leadoff hitters and LF in MLB. He is not a FA until 2028. Although if he has a typical season, he will be close to the highest paid Guardian soon.

But in many ways, I view the 25 Guards as a bridge lineup and roster.
Santana, Lane Thomas, are not long term Guardians. Brito, even if successful, will not be at 2B in 2026. In fact, if he hits as expected, LF might be a good transition spot for him.

What's an overwhelming offer in your opinion?

I agree that the 25 Guards might not have a solidified lineup. Lots of things to figure out yet. Yes, that sucks but if I can bring in a big talent or two by dealing Kwan then I would consider it. I just don't know how good this team is or isn't right now and I've explained my concerns with Kwan going forward.

 

[sportscoach]

Sure we can and this team has already had a couple spells without Kwan and did just fine thank you. Having said that....answer my f'n question or are you going to just keep telling us how you feel and act as if they wouldn't be able to experience success without the likes of Hedges and Sewald?

I'm sure they've already had discussions if now or later is the best time to deal Kwan. It can be debated rationally from both sides. What can be easily made convincable is the idea that Kwan should not be given an costly extension that takes him into his mid 30's. Absolutely no fuckin' way this club can take that chance unless Blitzer is going to infuse enough money that Kwan's fade into oblivion can be covered without effecting the roster construction.

Regardless, you cannot convince me that dealing Kwan for a player the quality of Bryce Miller is going to hurt this team. Just as likely to dramatically improve it.

Kwan turns 28 in September, so if we get a 5 year deal with him instead of becoming a free agent when he's 30 he will be a free at 32... That's not mid 30s...

 

[CDAV45]

Kwan turns 28 in September, so if we get a 5 year deal with him instead of becoming a free agent when he's 30 he will be a free at 32... That's not mid 30s...

You think he'll sign a below market value extension that only takes him to his age 32 season? Pass that shit around bruh, don't sit there and smoke the entire thing.

 

[CDAV45]

Cleveland is the one who designed these type of extensions and every single run that they had lately, they had multiple players on extensions....

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland offered some type of extension to Kwan... We will know at the end of spring...

I'm sure they will but it won't be good enough to keep him in Cleveland. The only thing that could influence that is if he pulls another hamstring this season. What are the odds?

 

[Criznit]

Genao finished the season at A+... Going by how they normally operate...

Genao in 25... starts in A+ finishes in AA...

Genao in 26... starts AA finishes in AAA...

Genao in 27... Add to the 40 man, starts in AAA with a MLB debut later that season...

That's a couple years away...

Now injuries and/or ineffectiveness could change the timeline, but that's what I am expecting, which is what they normally do with guys like him...

Key word. Normally.

Normally players don't spent parts of three seasons (2025 will be four) in A ball.

Again Genao has been around for awhile and again injuries have slowed him. If he had performance issues your timeline would be justified. But he isn't struggling, infact he is excelling

Genao will start in Akron.