5 Bold Predictions | 2020 Edition

[Otsego Mar]

I don't think the season will start until late June/early July. But imagine a season of only 80 games -- it'd be like one giant pennant race. Total blast.

And the BEST part - warm weather!

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Yeah I know some people still agree with you, but def a lot less then 30 and 40 years ago. I just don’t see a ton of people 20 years from now buying season tickets for an 82 game home season minus New York Boston and places like st Louis. Also hard to see the next generation giving up 3 to 4 hours a night on a reg basis. You are a die hard but the casual fan which makes up a decent amount of the mlb fan base now, is not able to devote every night to the Sport in terms of time and money.

A lot of this has been posted over and over, but the attendance has to do with the demographic of the city.

Get more people living downtown, within walking distance of the stadium, and you'll see more people there. My season tickets when I lived on East 4th were absolutely amazing.

When people live out in the suburbs, they're less likely to see the hassle of commuting downtown (let alone kids, jobs, times, parking, and the logistics of it all) as worth it. I canceled my season tickets because games just felt more like a hassle than a luxury.

I don't see this as an age thing. Tons of younger people love baseball.

I do see it as a marketing thing. The MLB is the worst run out of the big 3, and it isn't close. They need to promote their personalities, encourage individuals to stand out, and make the game more accessible.

 

[Urban]

I canceled my season tickets because games just felt more like a hassle than a luxury.

Definitely relate to this as I've continued to move further away. Used to live at 668 downtown and it was a 5 min walk to the ballpark. Since then I've scaled back from 81 games to 40 to 20 now. The Indians ticket department being totalitarian-like in their resale policy certain doesn't help matters.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Definitely relate to this as I've continued to move further away. Used to live at 668 downtown and it was a 5 min walk to the ballpark. Since then I've scaled back from 81 games to 40 to 20 now. The Indians ticket department being totalitarian-like in their resale policy certain doesn't help matters.

They are FANTASTIC at how flexible they are with allowing you to move tickets around. That kept me for as long as they did. Being able to move tickets willy-nilly was such a luxury.

 

[Urban]

They are FANTASTIC at how flexible they are with allowing you to move tickets around. That kept me for as long as they did. Being able to move tickets willy-nilly was such a luxury.

Very true, that is a huge perk

 

[smalls1129]

Way to early prediction... for many reasons, if the season ends up being 80-100 games Indians will sell out close to 80% of them.

 

[Huber.]

My bold prediction.
Season is cancelled.
Just like the nba and nhl, they aren’t coming back.

Does MLB have some kind of insurance on this? To where it makes sense to just cancel the season and get the insurance payout?

 

[CATS44]

IMO baseball will continue to have a long season, whether the present 162 games, or something like the old 154. The reason is television programming, which brings in the bulk of the revenue. Baseball is a cheap way of providing networks with close to six months of programming and the adjacent advertising sales...and a fairly stable viewership. The same applies to a lesser financial, but larger affiliate, extent to radio.

 

[Derek]

IMO baseball will continue to have a long season, whether the present 162 games, or something like the old 154. The reason is television programming, which brings in the bulk of the revenue. Baseball is a cheap way of providing networks with close to six months of programming and the adjacent advertising sales...and a fairly stable viewership. The same applies to a lesser financial, but larger affiliate, extent to radio.

Are you talking about this year or the long-term?

I'd be shocked if they have much more than a 100 game season this year, but yeah there's no way they cut down from 162 long-term and lose that revenue.

 

[6.19.2016]

I don't think the season will start until late June/early July. But imagine a season of only 80 games -- it'd be like one giant pennant race. Total blast.

Are you talking about this year or the long-term?

I'd be shocked if they have much more than a 100 game season this year, but yeah there's no way they cut down from 162 long-term and lose that revenue.

92.3 had a good discussion a few days ago about this.

A lot of players' careers and earnings hinge on whether this will be considered a full "year of service," i.e. do we get another cost-controlled year of Lindor, and do we really want to pay him 20% of the cap once his time is up.

I wouldn't be surprised to see many more double-headers, and a November World Series; in fact, even an early December one could be feasible.

Unfortunately, one of the other things I recall they noted is that even when the rank-and-file employees are being paid, secondary contractors for concession, security, etc. won't be until this is resolved.

The good news is that even Seattle and much of Italy [!!] are starting to level off slightly on new cases. But no end in sight for NYC...

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The good news is that even Seattle and much of Italy [!!] are starting to level off slightly on new cases. But no end in sight for NYC...

Number of confirmed cases is closely linked to number of tests performed. It is not an accurate measure of the number of people with coronavirus in the country.

The death rate would be a more accurate indicator, and Italy appears to still be rising.

 

[6.19.2016]

Number of confirmed cases is closely linked to number of tests performed. It is not an accurate measure of the number of people with coronavirus in the country.

The death rate would be a more accurate indicator, and Italy appears to still be rising.

True. My gut feeling is that there were tons of us running around with it in January and February, not realizing it, but recovering and effectively immunized.

But my sources:

U.S. state coronavirus curves show many could be close behind New York

New York now leads the nation in confirmed COVID-19 cases, but the latest data shows the coronavirus curve for several other states follows a similar pattern.

www.usatoday.com

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

The number of COVID-19 cases around the world continues to grow, but each country has a different infection trajectory. This chart tells the story.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[ajz20]

A lot of this has been posted over and over, but the attendance has to do with the demographic of the city.

Get more people living downtown, within walking distance of the stadium, and you'll see more people there. My season tickets when I lived on East 4th were absolutely amazing.

When people live out in the suburbs, they're less likely to see the hassle of commuting downtown (let alone kids, jobs, times, parking, and the logistics of it all) as worth it. I canceled my season tickets because games just felt more like a hassle than a luxury.

I don't see this as an age thing. Tons of younger people love baseball.

I do see it as a marketing thing. The MLB is the worst run out of the big 3, and it isn't close. They need to promote their personalities, encourage individuals to stand out, and make the game more accessible.

Yes having people who can afford season tickets living downtown is optimal, but most of your season ticket holders in a city like Cleveland are probably still going to be coming in from the suburbs.
Season tickets moving now and in the future is a huge expense and a huge time commitment that the casual fan may not want to invest in. Like sure let’s go to 2 to 4 games a year, but 81 when there are so many other entertainment options and money is not limitless is just a tall order for many people .

 

[Tonedef75]

True. My gut feeling is that there were tons of us running around with it in January and February, not realizing it, but recovering and effectively immunized.

But my sources:

U.S. state coronavirus curves show many could be close behind New York

New York now leads the nation in confirmed COVID-19 cases, but the latest data shows the coronavirus curve for several other states follows a similar pattern.

www.usatoday.com

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

The number of COVID-19 cases around the world continues to grow, but each country has a different infection trajectory. This chart tells the story.

www.visualcapitalist.com

I don’t think you’re wrong. It may even had started a little before that. I’m a nurse at a SNF in Arizona. We lost 5 residents in the LTC unit I work in between end of December and beginning of February. 3 of which had respiratory issues at the time. I, myself, a non-smoker, along with several other staff, from doctors down to CNAs, had respiratory issues the second week of February. Fortunately no one passed during that time. We do have several Chinese patients that had family travel to China in November and December. I’m not sure which provinces. I’m surprised we haven’t had any issues yet, but wonder if that’s because the residents that had it early passed and the other built up an immunity.

 

[sportscoach]

92.3 had a good discussion a few days ago about this.

A lot of players' careers and earnings hinge on whether this will be considered a full "year of service," i.e. do we get another cost-controlled year of Lindor, and do we really want to pay him 20% of the cap once his time is up.

I wouldn't be surprised to see many more double-headers, and a November World Series; in fact, even an early December one could be feasible.

Unfortunately, one of the other things I recall they noted is that even when the rank-and-file employees are being paid, secondary contractors for concession, security, etc. won't be until this is resolved.

The good news is that even Seattle and much of Italy [!!] are starting to level off slightly on new cases. But no end in sight for NYC...

If they do a ton of double headers then they may as well allow a 28/30 man roster this season in a sense.

I know that sounds strange, but trying to play a lot of games in a shortened period with the current setup may not be a good idea and one the players union probably wouldn't want. So adding a few additional players could help offset this and the players union cannot say much since all the players would be getting service time and big league money.

Now does anyone know/remember how the 94 strike affected service time? I dont know what the rules where back then but it's possible if they had service time back then that they may use that as an example of what to do.

Personally, let's say they play 80 something games, maybe just have each game count as a larger percentage than normal of service time allowing people to get a full year in since losing so many games like that, could really upset the players since it was out of their control and not fair to them. Also MLB could just ask teams to set a 26 man roster by a certain date and all those players on that roster could just earn service time. I mean it won't stop teams from keeping off top prospects so they dont accumulate time, but at least players get paid and service time accordingly