AFC Divisional Playoffs - Beat the Chiefs

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I want to focus on how the Browns can best attack Kansas City this weekend. And, no surprise coming from me--it's all about the trenches.

You know about offense. Our offensive line has absolutely mauled people this year. Kansas City is incredibly vulnerable against the run. They built their defense to generate turnovers, and their defensive line is built to penetrate--not to be stout against the run. They are, by a wide margin, the absolute worst red zone defense in football (link). So, our first key this week is to maul them there. Let's hope Conklin is healthy and Bitonio is fully recovered from COVID. Let the big boys do what they do best, and let Chubb and Hunt feast behind them.

Next, when we talk about how their defense is constructed, Baker needs to not turn the ball over. No fumbles, no picks, and we have a great chance of winning this. Watch out for Chris Jones's penetration up the middle. Our interior offensive line was incredible against Pittsburgh, and they'll have to be the same against Kansas City. Neutralize Frank Clark off the edge, and then it's just Baker and his eyes versus an exploitable secondary. You gotta keep track of Mathieu in those situations.

Now, on to defense. I'm a guy who thinks coverage is more important than pass rush in the NFL--at least when it comes to a performance-per-dollar metric. However, against KC, I'm not sure that's correct. If you give him time, Tyreek is going to get open against anyone. Luckily, the Chiefs are exploitable here. Mahomes tends to drop back DEEP every third down. He gets away with it because he's a freak, but it's punishable. These deep drops set the KC tackles up to get dominated by pure speed rushes that go straight back to where Mahomes bails back to. This means Myles might have his juiciest matchup of the entire season on Sunday. If he's healthy, expect Garrett to get home with at least one strip sack fumble.

Besides that, we just have to keep KC at bay. As incredible as they are, Hill isn't going to beat you in physical, short routes. Mahomes isn't going to beat you with precision passing underneath coverage. Play conservative defense. Keep them in front of you. Let our defensive line stop the run and pin their ears back on third down. The Chiefs will screw up eventually, and that's all we need.

If you haven't watched it yet, this is a great video:

 

[Kris032]

I brought this up on the other thread but Joe Woods will face KC again after their Superbowl defeat last year. He does have familiarity with their offense and hopefully he can game plan to slow them down and limit them to FG as much as possible.

Also hoping for Ward to be at least 75%. We need someone to cover Kelce or Hill.

 

[CardiacCavs]

Completely agree with your analysis. KC is a very tough team to beat, but the Browns, with their strong running game and ability to pressure the QB, are uniquely well equipped to take advantage of KC's weaknesses. Getting off to an early lead will be critical. KC almost welcomes the run because once they get a lead, they can just put up points faster than you, while you're draining the clock running the ball.

There is definitely a chance. Can't afford any turnovers. The margin of error will be razor thin.

 

[Kbiz]

Kelce running underneath with our LBs is a scary thought.

Time for Woods to earn my respect. I believe in these players and think they'll play hard. Just worried about schemes against the pass. I feel pretty good against the run if CEH is still out.

 

[adam81king]

Kelce running underneath with our LBs is a scary thought.

Time for Woods to earn my respect. I believe in these players and think they'll play hard. Just worried about schemes against the pass. I feel pretty good against the run if CEH is still out.

If Woods hasn't earned your respect by what he's done with a grossly undermanned roster, zero real off-season, very limited practice, a revolving door at every position and covid, im not sure what to tell you.

 

[Triplethreat]

Why not us?

 

[Kbiz]

If Woods hasn't earned your respect by what he's done with a grossly undermanned roster, zero real off-season, very limited practice, a revolving door at every position and covid, im not sure what to tell you.

I think this narrative that we are "grossly undermanned" is a falsehood. We may not collectively have above average guys across the board but we have elite players on the defensive side of the ball.

Teams are converting on 4th down against us at 83.33% clip. This isn't some outlier stat skewed by a bad game. This has happened all year.

Pretty sure that this has to be up there for all-time worst 4th down defense in the NFL and I think that is borderline inexcusable.

 

[adam81king]

I think this narrative that we are "grossly undermanned" is a falsehood. We may not collectively have above average guys across the board but we have elite players on the defensive side of the ball.

Teams are converting on 4th down against us at 83.33% clip. This isn't some outlier stat skewed by a bad game. This has happened all year.

Pretty sure that this has to be up there for all-time worst 4th down defense in the NFL and I think that is borderline inexcusable.

How do *you* define "undermanned," then?

Me? I use this:
No Grant Delpit or Ronnie Harrison...
No Denzel Ward or Greedy Williams...
The worst linebacker room in the League *and* injuries/Covid issues...
Vernon gone...
Myles clearly handcuffed by covid...
Stewart and Jackson should barely be on practice squads, let alone starting playoff games...
No real off-season...
Limited practices (1 before this game)...
Unsure of availability for lineups week to week...

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I think this narrative that we are "grossly undermanned" is a falsehood. We may not collectively have above average guys across the board but we have elite players on the defensive side of the ball.

Name one? Because, we just played without Ward and Myles hasn't been himself since he got COVID. To me, those are the only two players on our defense you can consider "elite" when they're playing and healthy. Sheldon Richardson might be the next best player on that side of the football.

Teams are converting on 4th down against us at 83.33% clip. This isn't some outlier stat skewed by a bad game. This has happened all year.

Pretty sure that this has to be up there for all-time worst 4th down defense in the NFL and I think that is borderline inexcusable.

I think there's significantly more value to judging an entire body of work instead of just 27 plays. That's an incredibly small sample size to draw any valuable conclusions.

 

[Los216]

Stick Joseph on Kelce. Stick Ward on Hill. Let our pass rush pin their ears back. Their running game is not a threat at all much like PIT.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Stick Joseph on Kelce. Stick Ward on Hill. Let our pass rush pin their ears back. Their running game is not a threat at all much like PIT.

That sounds like an absolute recipe for disaster. The only player on the field Karl Joseph can effectively cover is Andrew Sendejo.

Honestly, for man looks, I don't hate the idea of letting Ward occasionally cover Kelce... he's done really well with bigger receivers. He might get bodied and boxed out, but I'd try it a few times. Nobody has the speed to stay with Tyreek so you need multiple dudes to handle that assignment.

 

[kriegs]

Stick Joseph on Kelce. Stick Ward on Hill. Let our pass rush pin their ears back. Their running game is not a threat at all much like PIT.

It's more likely going to be a bunch of 2 high looks like last night. Force them to go up the field without the long play. Especially if Ward and Johnson aren't back...

 

[Kbiz]

Name one? Because, we just played without Ward and Myles hasn't been himself since he got COVID. To me, those are the only two players on our defense you can consider "elite" when they're playing and healthy. Sheldon Richardson might be the next best player on that side of the football.


I think there's significantly more value to judging an entire body of work instead of just 27 plays. That's an incredibly small sample size to draw any valuable conclusions.

I guess my point is that we've had capable guys all year, not necessarily the last few weeks - should've made that clearer - and I think our defense has underperformed all year.

I was happy to see Woods draw up some different blitzes last night and perhaps he's kept some stuff close to the vest but overall, I just haven't been impressed with him this year. Just has felt very vanilla like we believe these "undermanned" excuses and just try to play conservative "bend don't break" defense when I think we have some thumpers on that side of the ball.

Perhaps it's because we've seemingly nailed it with our offensive coaches and I am giving him an unfair shake.

 

[Los216]

That sounds like an absolute recipe for disaster. The only player on the field Karl Joseph can effectively cover is Andrew Sendejo.

Honestly, for man looks, I don't hate the idea of letting Ward occasionally cover Kelce... he's done really well with bigger receivers. He might get bodied and boxed out, but I'd try it a few times. Nobody has the speed to stay with Tyreek so you need multiple dudes to handle that assignment.

Joseph is our biggest and most physical DB. He's the kind of DB that you have to put on Kelce to get physical with him. I wouldn't have Ward travel with Kelce because that would be a waste. he'd be more useful sticking with Hill. Hill is a tough cover but I would make Ward ravel with Hill all game so at least every time Mahomes throws to Hill our best DB will be on him.

 

[Los216]

It's more likely going to be a bunch of 2 high looks like last night. Force them to go up the field without the long play. Especially if Ward and Johnson aren't back...

Yeah I would obviously have help over the top too. I don't mean put ward on an island with Hill but he should definitely travel with him all game.

I would approach this like a BB coached defense. Take their best player away from them and make other guys beat you. If they were playing NE they would smother Hill and make Watkins and Hardman beat you while getting physical with Kelce.