Amed Rosario - Play or Trade?

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

3rd most hits doesn’t mean much when most of them are singles and that’s all he does to get on base. Though singles are more impactful than walks in my opinion! A lot of these stat people like to argue a walk is just as good as a single but I don’t agree at all.

But that’s how you end up being 3rd in the AL in hits but 48th in OPS and 45th in on base in the AL, down around guys like Kiner Falefa who Yankees fans want gone and Elvis Andrus who can’t get a job.

Nice post!

While I do agree that singles are more valuable than walks, there's one hidden piece to the walk that I value highly... total number of pitches.

I think there is value to a lineup that sees a lot of pitches. As you make pitchers work, they're more likely to make a mistake. You're also going to get into the bullpen and work through the top bullpen options quicker.

I think that's part of what made our 2016 lineup tick. Napoli and Santana were among the top 5 players in baseball at pitches per plate appearance.

I always have a soft spot for guys who can work counts and see a lot of pitches--and I also think it's a metric that isn't being valued monetarily right now, so we can strike before other teams start to drive up the price for that skill.

 

[Derek]

I wonder if people who cite OBP would take less flack from casual fans if they reversed it into “making outs percentage” because that’s what we’re really taking about. How often each player makes an out.

Amed’s “MOP” was .688, which means he made outs more frequently than guys like Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Farmer and despite the fact that he put the ball in play a lot, his hits were less productive than Elvis Andrus and barely more productive than Javy Baez.

 

[KluberSociety]

It also seems a bit insane to me to put someone with such a high GIDP percentage consistently in the #2 hole behind someone who gets on 1st base as much as Steven Kwan. I just don't get it. At least in the 3 hole he would maybe have a chance to see Kwan on a different base or someone like JRam double in front of him.

On the flip side maybe his GIDP% is so high precisely because he's hitting behind Kwan who is on 1st so much.

 

[Huber.]

Thank you for the friend request friend. Unfortunately, I was recently robbed and I am now stuck in France on vacation. Could you please send 1000? Once I receive the money and return home, I will send you back 2000 for your troubles. Great deal for both, no? Please send to two one six four two zero four four eight seven. Thank you friend -Amed

 

[PocketMonger]

I wonder if people who cite OBP would take less flack from casual fans if they reversed it into “making outs percentage” because that’s what we’re really taking about. How often each player makes an out.

Amed’s “MOP” was .688, which means he made outs more frequently than guys like Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Farmer and despite the fact that he put the ball in play a lot, his hits were less productive than Elvis Andrus and barely more productive than Javy Baez.

In the second half of last season he hit 7HR's in 69 games which would put him on pace to hit 15HR's in a season. Unfortunately his OBP dropped below 300 in the second half. A 15HR guy with sub 300 on base is far from optimal.

 

[sportscoach]

I don't like Rosarios OBP and whatnot, so normally, analystics say move from him in how I prefer to run a roster. He hasn't shown he is great at defense anywhere (3B actually may be his best position), but he definitely doesn't hit like a 3B should... His OPS+ stats, say he is league average and I feel like he could be replaced on paper.

The only real reason Rosario is still on this ball club is the chemistry side of the game. It's not something we can measure. We only know it cause of the words people like JRam have said and watching the players interact.

 

[KluberSociety]

It's also important to take a step back and realize that last year was the exception rather than the rule. We had Gimenez, Kwan, and OGonz all step in and become immediate producers that helped the team out at average to above average rates. The flawed thinking would be to count on one of our current bench/minor leaguers to step up and be that "above average" option. Yes Amed is average but average isn't a bad thing.

 

[Criznit]

It also seems a bit insane to me to put someone with such a high GIDP percentage consistently in the #2 hole behind someone who gets on 1st base as much as Steven Kwan. I just don't get it. At least in the 3 hole he would maybe have a chance to see Kwan on a different base or someone like JRam double in front of him.

On the flip side maybe his GIDP% is so high precisely because he's hitting behind Kwan who is on 1st so much.

I really don't see how Tito can put Amed in the 2-hole against righties at the very least for 2023. Amed should be batting behind OGonz and Josh Naylor and use his base-hitting to drive those fellas in.

Against RH

1. Kwan
2. Gimenez
3. JRam
4. Bell
5. Naylor
6. Ogonz
7. Amed
8. Catcher
9. Straw

 

[petes999]

It's also important to take a step back and realize that last year was the exception rather than the rule. We had Gimenez, Kwan, and OGonz all step in and become immediate producers that helped the team out at average to above average rates. The flawed thinking would be to count on one of our current bench/minor leaguers to step up and be that "above average" option. Yes Amed is average but average isn't a bad thing.

I don't think anyone would disagree with rookies tend to be below average, even those wanting to boot Rosario. The argument which I started to present yesterday is when are new players going to take over as Rosario, Bell, Naylor and Bieber depart? Today, I said they may keep Rosario until Rocchio is ready next year as being very logical reason why he sticks around. But, on the flip side, do you want to have all these rookies be under-achievers all at once in 2024 when we are probably replacing 1/2 our pitching staff next year (Bieber - 1 yr away from FA, Plesac, Quant and Civale 2 years out)? 2 of 4 starters are forsure are out of here, one way or another.

So, Guardians are breaking in all these pitchers (2-3 starters), Valera (DH/RF with Oscar for Bell departure) and Rocchio at SS for Rosario all at once in 2024. That is 5 of your 15-16 main guys bye, bye playoffs with the logic you suggest (and it has merit). And, who is leading the rag-tag rookie bunch -- showing them how to hustle without Rosario?

If experience /leadership is key on a younger core, it will continue to be a problem with our re-tooling process (few vets, mostly players pre-FA). Do you want to wait until 2024 to have an all rookie team or start the process now? If rookies cost you 1-2 wins per year as rookies are below average ... is it better to lose 2-4 with Naylor and Freeman this year and 3-6 next year with Bibee/Williams/Espino next year .... or 1-2 with Naylor and 4-8 with Rocchio/Big 3? That is what FO is wrestling with. That pressure to win year-in and year-out without many vet contracts and thus needing to constantly break rookies in is why Tito/Chris are up all night figuring out how to do it.

 

[CATS44]

Three candidates for a MIF partner for Gimenez.

A) 670 PA...283/312/403/715...one XBH per 14 at bats...18 SB in 23 attempts...17% K rate....12 E in 1241 innings at SS....all at MLB level.

B) 408 PA...234/315/390/715...one XBH per 13 at bats...7 SB in 8 attempts....26% K rate...18 E in 1033 innings at SS-2B-3B in ACL-AAA-MLB.

C) 429 PA...273/360/348/707...one XBH per 23 at bats...7 SB in 9 attempts...10% K rate....7 E in 814 innings at SS-2B-3B in AAA-MLB.

A showed the most power, was the superior base runner, and was at least as good at catching a baseball...and did it at the highest level. C was best at putting the ball in play.

A is Amed...B is Arias...C is Freeman.

If you dont like average, you can't like below average. On paper, trading Amed is very likely to weaken the team offensively, without improving the defense.

 

[Gson]

I really don't see how Tito can put Amed in the 2-hole against righties at the very least for 2023. Amed should be batting behind OGonz and Josh Naylor and use his base-hitting to drive those fellas in.

Against RH

1. Kwan
2. Gimenez
3. JRam
4. Bell
5. Naylor
6. Ogonz
7. Amed
8. Catcher
9. Straw

hmmmm......

You might want to consider putting the three rabbits in a row (7. catcher 8. Amed 9. Straw) with Kwan on the wrap around... ?

 

[Criznit]

hmmmm......

You might want to consider putting the three rabbits in a row (7. catcher 8. Amed 9. Straw) with Kwan on the wrap around... ?

Could definitely go for that as well, especially if we actually get some offensive life out of the catcher spot in 2023. Oh and Bo Naylor appears to have some "wheels" of his own. Counting on that now is premature, need to see how he can hang against MLB defense.

 

[Criznit]

Three candidates for a MIF partner for Gimenez.

A) 670 PA...283/312/403/715...one XBH per 14 at bats...18 SB in 23 attempts...17% K rate....12 E in 1241 innings at SS....all at MLB level.

B) 408 PA...234/315/390/715...one XBH per 13 at bats...7 SB in 8 attempts....26% K rate...18 E in 1033 innings at SS-2B-3B in ACL-AAA-MLB.

C) 429 PA...273/360/348/707...one XBH per 23 at bats...7 SB in 9 attempts...10% K rate....7 E in 814 innings at SS-2B-3B in AAA-MLB.

A showed the most power, was the superior base runner, and was at least as good at catching a baseball...and did it at the highest level. C was best at putting the ball in play.

A is Amed...B is Arias...C is Freeman.

If you dont like average, you can't like below average. On paper, trading Amed is very likely to weaken the team offensively, without improving the defense.

Boy - I don't think this helps the Amed argument much. In fact, I see Freeman's line and I want MORE of that...

 

[Cleveland is the Reason]

Boy - I don't think this helps the Amed argument much. In fact, I see Freeman's line and I want MORE of that...

It also goes to show how easily Amed’s OPS production can be replaced, considering the apparent worse options to take his spot posted essentially the same OPS.

Also interesting to me his .715 OPS is average, but another .715 OPS and a .707 OPS is below average. But I’m not good with numbers, so who knows.

 

[Cleveland is the Reason]

I doubt you can find anybody with a true understanding of statistics that would argue that a walk is as good as a hit.

If you look at how each stat correlates to runs scored, the order is as follows:
OPS
SLG
OBP
BA

OPS reigns supreme because it not only includes a measure of how often a guy gets on base vs making an out (OBP), but it also factors in how they’re getting on base (SLG).

I can’t remember who it was, but he was on The Fan talking about how walks are the same as singles now. I know there are influential people in higher places than me who believe that. I don’t like it. I’ve learned to accept the new game with less emphasis on putting the ball in play and more on getting on base as much as possible any way possible and hitting for power. But I’m not fully there as a fan.

And I absolutely agree with you and your tier. There are too many stats in baseball now that are all just noise to me, but OPS is the one that I will always refer to when judging players. Gives you the entire snapshot of what they do well. In a day with declining hitting skills batting average has been tossed aside as the best judge, which took me some time to get used to. I always loved memorizing batting averages off the back of baseball cards. That was baseball to me, and defining who was good at hitting to me.