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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

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I like this pick.

I love that his turnovers are low. Needs time to adjust to the defense being better than the college level. I do have faith that he will get there. Love his passion for the game.

Added plus? 1st victory against our division rivals and I believe this guy has the cohones to take a dump on their 50 yard line
 
Best QB in the draft. Leader of men. Hee hee.
 
He was a cleaner quarterback in 2017 than he was the year before. He can make all the throws. I want to see what Mayfield can do against bigger, stronger, faster defenses and less dominant talent around him. I have questions, but I had questions about all these top four prospects.

You nailed it. His height is not an issue, he is basically 6'1, that is good enough, he isn't 5'10 or anything.

Last year all we could talk about was velocity, Mayfield threw 60mph. That is very fast, would have been a tying record if not for Allen and 62mph.

He doesn't turn the ball over, and is accurate.

My biggest issue is not his fault. Big12 qb's never succeed....until one does. Let's hope Baker is the first B12 qb to succeed.
 
I posted this in the draft thread, but I love this pick. This article explains why pretty well.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...jecting-booms-busts-top-quarterback-prospects

"There are no sure things in the NFL draft, but quarterback may be the riskiest position of all. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Recent history is littered with teams that drafted a quarterback high, only to find out that player couldn't play at the NFL level.

The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt and team passing efficiency. These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to only be used on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

It's important not to overestimate the importance of a small difference in the QBASE projections. Most of this year's top quarterbacks are grouped together in the middle of the scale. It's a bit of a surprise that Sam Darnold came out with a lower QBASE rating than some of the other top prospects -- Josh Rosen, for example. But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft.

BAKER MAYFIELD

Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.

One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.

On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)

As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.

Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. Here are the top 10 prospects since 1997 based on the current formula:

  1. Philip Rivers (1,964 QBASE)
  2. Carson Palmer (1,916 QBASE)
  3. Donovan McNabb (1,799 QBASE)
  4. Baker Mayfield (1,480 QBASE)
  5. Russell Wilson (1,288 QBASE)
  6. Peyton Manning (1,279 QBASE)
  7. Marcus Mariota (1,277 QBASE)
  8. Byron Leftwich (1,216 QBASE)
  9. Aaron Rodgers (1,216 QBASE)
  10. Ben Roethlisberger (1,211 QBASE)
For comparison Johnny Manziel's QBASE: 486
 
Welcome, Colt. I mean Baker.

colt-mccoy-james-harrison-hit-1.jpg

Not fair at all, Colt had a noodle arm, couldn't make all the NFL throws, Baker does not have this problem.
 
His arm isn't that much better. It's ok.
It's a lot better.

Better zip, better accuracy, better placement. Manzitter (only time I will use that nickname :chuckle:) threw up lame ducks that was bailed out by great catches. Baker had much better placement to not need spectacular catches.
 
I’m not a fan of the pick at all but to say his arm is average or below average is disingenuous.
 
I posted this in the draft thread, but I love this pick. This article explains why pretty well.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...jecting-booms-busts-top-quarterback-prospects

"There are no sure things in the NFL draft, but quarterback may be the riskiest position of all. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Recent history is littered with teams that drafted a quarterback high, only to find out that player couldn't play at the NFL level.

The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt and team passing efficiency. These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to only be used on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

It's important not to overestimate the importance of a small difference in the QBASE projections. Most of this year's top quarterbacks are grouped together in the middle of the scale. It's a bit of a surprise that Sam Darnold came out with a lower QBASE rating than some of the other top prospects -- Josh Rosen, for example. But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft.

BAKER MAYFIELD

Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.

One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.

On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)

As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.

Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. Here are the top 10 prospects since 1997 based on the current formula:

  1. Philip Rivers (1,964 QBASE)
  2. Carson Palmer (1,916 QBASE)
  3. Donovan McNabb (1,799 QBASE)
  4. Baker Mayfield (1,480 QBASE)
  5. Russell Wilson (1,288 QBASE)
  6. Peyton Manning (1,279 QBASE)
  7. Marcus Mariota (1,277 QBASE)
  8. Byron Leftwich (1,216 QBASE)
  9. Aaron Rodgers (1,216 QBASE)
  10. Ben Roethlisberger (1,211 QBASE)
For comparison Johnny Manziel's QBASE: 486
Curious, do you know what Weeden was? And what Rudolph is?
 
its a ton better, 60mph velocity is one of the strongest arms in the last 20 years. Arm strength is not his issue, playing in a qb friendly system is his issue.

Velocity at the combine means nothing. McCoy threw it 56, more than Russell Wilson (55). More than DeShone Kizer (52). Carson Wentz threw it 57. When you watch a football game, you can see who has an arm. Mayfield's never impressed me.
 

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