Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[Amherstcavsfan]

The scheme is great and, to be honest, anyone blaming the scheme for the passing struggles is either a fanboy or football stupid.

 

[Vee-Rex]

2020 - Team Rushing

Rush DVOA: #7 - 0.8%
Yards per game: #3 - 148.4
Yards per rush: #5 - 4.8
Attempts per game: #4 - 30.9

2021 - Team Rushing

Rush DVOA: #1 + 8.7%
Yards per game: #1 - 156.8
Yards per rush: #T-1 - 5.2
Attempts per game: #5 - 29.9

These are kind of crazy team numbers with how awful our passing game has been and how these totals aren't just a big upswing in rushing volume.

2020 - Team Passing

Pass DVOA: #10 + 20.7%
Yards per game: #24 - 221.2
Yards per att: #14 - 7.1
Attempts per game: #28 - 31.3
Sacks - #25 - 26
Rating: #12 - 96
QBR: 65.5

2021 - Team Passing

Pass DVOA: #18 + 12.9%
Yards per game: #25 - 205.6
Yards per att: #T-10 - 7.6
Attempts per game: #29 - 29.4
Sacks - #4 - 31
Rating: #19 - 90.5
QBR: 37.2

I can't totally wrap my head around people thinking this is a scheme or coaching problem looking at these numbers.

We are somehow cranking out utterly obscene rushing numbers and grades, while seeing a very substantial passing reduction.

Would't that speak to how good the scheme is? That you can get this kind of rush production, in-spite of some below league average play, across the board, passing?

I don't know that our counter punching is worse.......schematically......I think we just aren't capitalizing on those opportunities like we were last year.

Yeah, I know Baker is terrible right now.

I guess from my mindset: Baker has been terrible, and if injury is playing a big role in why, then it likely doesn't change until he gets healthy. Either way, IMO, the horse doesn't need further bludgeoning. It is what it is and maybe we address it in the offseason.

Since those are the cards we've been dealt, how do we, from a schematic standpoint, attack these 5-man fronts that are limiting our bootleg ability? That's what I was trying to address with my post, which is why I mentioned how getting Kareem back might help against some of these fronts.

 

[Vee-Rex]

The scheme is great and, to be honest, anyone blaming the scheme for the passing struggles is either a fanboy or football stupid.

If this is directed at me - I'm not blaming the scheme. I'm theorizing on what our options are to attack the defenses we're seeing.

Sometimes it feels like anything other than "BaKeR iZ bAd" means we're blaming someone or something else. We probably miss the playoffs but damn we're still in the thick of it right now lol - discussing what we can try to do going forward isn't a shot at the scheme.

 

[DJTJ]

The scheme is great and, to be honest, anyone blaming the scheme for the passing struggles is either a fanboy or football stupid.

The only time the route concepts don’t work is out of empty.

We didn’t use empty much against Detroit, people were open… a lot.

Part of the passing scheme is incredible and the other half is dog shit. We relied on the dog shit for weeks as a solution to Baker is hurt. Hoping this week shows we gave up on the predictable counterpunch.

 

[Vee-Rex]

The only time the route concepts don’t work is out of empty.

We didn’t use empty much against Detroit, people were open… a lot.

Part of the passing scheme is incredible and the other half is dog shit. We relied on the dog shit for weeks as a solution to Baker is hurt. Hoping this week shows we gave up on the predictable counterpunch.

Yessss. You mah homeboy! And the reason the empty concepts haven't worked IMO is due to Baker's limitations as a QB (not blaming Stefanski here, I'm blaming Baker ). Empty is great when faced against heavy, run-stopping fronts - similar to how we abused Pittsburgh in the playoff game last year. But it's worthless if our QB can't make the necessary passes.

Since it wasn't working, I really liked the adjustments made in the Detroit game as it gave an even easier opportunity (again not blaming Stefanski) for Baker to get the ball out to the correct receiver, inaccurate or not. And it made us less predictable (but who knows how long that will last). Just gotta hope Baker (or Keenum if he plays) can take advantage of it.

 

[I'mWithDan]

If this is directed at me - I'm not blaming the scheme. I'm theorizing on what our options are to attack the defenses we're seeing.

Sometimes it feels like anything other than "BaKeR iZ bAd" means we're blaming someone or something else. We probably miss the playoffs but damn we're still in the thick of it right now lol - discussing what we can try to do going forward isn't a shot at the scheme.

If you look at our numbers......this may make a few people's minds melt.......but the numbers say we are trying to counteract the loss of some of that boot action with a more vertical passing threat. I think some of AVP's comments have alluded to that as well. You see an increase in intended air yards for example this year and a much bigger reduction in YAC plays, where we aren't getting Baker on the edge (probably for health reasons) and giving him a clear throwing lane with a 1v1 crossing player. We have tried to do this from the pocket but Baker has just not been accurate as a stationary passer on those crossing action elements.

Cousins has played well in this system as a more limited boot player.......but he has been good at this stationary cross action and also pushing the ball down field via PA. The Browns have the 8th most PA passing yards as a low volume passing team, so I'm not sure we can realistically use it even more than we already are. 26.6% of the time, our passing is a play action attempt. Compare it to someone like Baltimore or Indy, also great running teams......who are in the 29% range. For context, the PFR database had us at 25.5% last year. I suspect this is a pretty happy medium for how often it can be used, just given where we fall with comparable running offenses.

So the numbers say we are trying to do two things.....

1. PA more......a lot more.....maybe we can eek out additonal attempts but it is in line with heavy PA teams already
2. Throw downfield more......likely to try to reduce the big hit on Baker

PA is working......but we really can't do it any more than we already are.......so unless we see an efficiency uptick in #2, we are kind of stuck here IMO, with how limited Baker is physically. He needs to either see a downfield passing improvement or generally, an accuracy increase in the crossing action that will lead to the defense being stretched horizontally (to then give us some easier downfield throws).

 

[Vee-Rex]

If you look at our numbers......this may make a few people's minds melt.......but the numbers say we are trying to counteract the loss of some oft that boot action with a more vertical passing threat. I think some of AVP's comments have alluded to that as well. You see an increase in intended air yards for example this year and a much bigger reduction in YAC plays, where we aren't getting Baker on the edge (probably for health reasons) and giving him a clear throwing lane with a 1v1 crossing player. We have tried to do this from the pocket but Baker has just not been accurate as a stationary passer on those crossing action elements.

Cousins has played well in this system as a more limited boot player.......but he has been good at this stationary cross action and also pushing the ball down field via PA. The Browns have the 8th most PA passing yards as a low volume passing team, so I'm not sure we can realistically use it even more than we already are. 26.6% of the time, our passing is a play action attempt. Compare it to someone like Baltimore or Indy, also great running teams......who are in the 29% range. For context, the PFR database had us at 25.5% last year. I suspect this is a pretty happy medium for how often it can be used, just given where we fall with comparable running offenses.

So the numbers say we are trying to do two things.....

1. PA more......a lot more.....maybe we can eek out additonal attempts but it is in line with heavy PA teams already
2. Throw downfield more......likely to try to reduce the big hit on Baker

PA is working......but we really can't do it any more than we already are.......so unless we see an efficiency uptick in #2, we are kind of stuck here IMO, with how limited Baker is physically. He needs to either see a downfield passing improvement or generally, an accuracy increase in the crossing action that will lead to the defense being stretched horizontally (to then give us some easier downfield throws).

I know we've run PA a lot, I was hoping to see it skewed just a bit more towards 1st downs than what it currently is. I think we saw a bit of that during the Detroit game compared to the NE game. Defenses are trying to enforce the exact opposite situation that Kevin Stefanski wants - Baker on 3rd and long. They're usually (but not always) selling out to stop the run on 1st down to accomplish that.

The 5-man fronts are containing Baker in the pocket and we see a guy who can't move the sticks. Generally, running between the gaps is how you can alleviate the pressure those fronts put on the QB, and Kareem is someone who excels at this (Chubb is good too, but Kareem has a bit more burst between the tackles). If they squeeze the interior (like how the Bengals did), counter runs with pulling guards will eat them alive.

Another way is with a lot of misdirection. If they're using the edges to try to contain Baker, it helps to bunch receivers on one side and get some pre-snap motion going to make them hesitate. Then you can open up opportunities to move the pocket a bit.

Obviously our coaches know all of this and much more, I'm mostly pointing out what I seen to be successful against the defenses we've been seeing. And I thought Stefanski called a great game against the Lions. Just gotta hope the QB play steps up against a better Ravens team.

 

[FiveThous]

 

[Smooth]

If Baker is continually unable to beat defense deep or within the mid/intermediate range of passing, this offense stands very little hope of being able to do anything for a playoff push..

The defensive game plan is the same each week: load up against the run, play one high, mix up defensive pressures and force Baker to beat you, particularly challenging him past 10+ yards.. For whatever reason you want to use (mechanics, injuries, weather, etc), Baker has been terribly inaccurate at these levels and has not been able to consistently to keep the defense honest..

The is the same type of debate that we're having with Okoro, and last year's Cavs with spacing: The inability to create spacing via shooting, is contracting the floor, creating tight passing lanes, tighter driving lanes and less room to operate.. Baker's inability to keep the defense honest is keeping more guys in the box and making it more difficult for our run game to succeed... But thanks to the scheme, Chubb and our offensive line, they still are...

The offense is sputtering along because Baker is not able to threaten the defense and give enough breathing room for the run game.. He is simply missing throws he should be making, and the painful part, is missing throws he's shown he can make..

The other frustrating thing is, Baker doesn't have to throw for 300+ yards for this offense to be successful... He just has to make the plays the defense gives him, challenge them vertically and find open players at immediate levels.. But right now, anything past wide open guys, is a bit of a stretch for him to make..

 

[Bkerr02]

Once Baker hurt his shoulder this season was pretty much done. Now I will give him some credit once he got used to the harness and he started to gain strength in the shoulder he started to play a lot better. Now the other issue, the heel and knee. Having the heel injury after the cinci game really derailed things from there. He can’t plant, can’t run very well and it’s clearly affecting his accuracy and play. The decision to not sit him the Pats game and last week was an absolutely huge mistake. But I understand it from KS view. We were 5-4 going into NE and he was hoping the defense would step up and win an ugly game vs NE with a banged up Baker, with the Det game coming after we would have been sitting in a good position. Unfortunately we shit the bed and lost to NE and then that put the Det game as a must win. Now it’s a debate whether he should have sat Baker vs Det but I get why he started him, since it’s a must win and banged up or not Baker is still way better than keenum. So I get it. Hopefully we can win an ugly game this week vs Baltimore and get Baker as healthy as possible from the bye week and go from there. This team is absolutely talented enough to run the table the rest of the season. And it alll depends on how healthy we can get Baker. If we can even get his heel and knee to 90% I don’t think we will see the Baker we saw the last 2 weeks.

 

[Real Deal]

One guy keeps coming to my mind when comparing 26 year old Baker to no other than... 26 year old Drew Brees.

Brees: 30-28, 80 TD, 53 Int, 12,348 Yds, 62% Comp, 6.8 Y/A, 84.9 Rtg

Baker: 28-27, 85 TDs, 49 Int, 13,281 Yds, 62% Comp, 7.5 Y/A, 89.4 Rtg

Root for the breakup all you want, his best play is still ahead, and if last season proved anything... you want that healthy Baker leading your team more than 20 others.

Saints will be glad to have history repeat itself with acquiring Baker.

 

[Bkerr02]

One guy keeps coming to my mind when comparing 26 year old Baker to no other than... 26 year old Drew Brees.

Brees: 30-28, 80 TD, 53 Int, 12,348 Yds, 62% Comp, 6.8 Y/A, 84.9 Rtg

Baker: 28-27, 85 TDs, 49 Int, 13,281 Yds, 62% Comp, 7.5 Y/A, 89.4 Rtg

Root for the breakup all you want, his best play is still ahead, and if last season proved anything... you want that healthy Baker leading your team more than 20 others.

Saints will be glad to have history repeat itself with acquiring Baker.

Exactly. I think people forget how good Baker was before injury. Hell in 2 games he was completing 83% of his passes this year. I get it we are all frustrated bc we want to win and we want Baker to play well, and it really sucks bc this division is there for the taking and in reality still is. Injuries have really just killed this team and most importantly Baker. I truly believe if Baker didn’t get hurt we would be talking about how we are 8-2/7-3 and the number 1 seed in a weaker AFC. But unfortunately injuries are part of the game.

 

[Douglar]

But right now, anything past wide open guys, is a bit of a stretch for him to make..

Last week, from a spotlessly clean pocket, Mayfield over threw a wide open Jarvis and landed the ball into the arms of a defender that was 5 yards away.

So if he was at least hitting the wide open guys, it might not be so bad. Last week was like Sam Darnold quality QB play.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Exactly. I think people forget how good Baker was before injury. Hell in 2 games he was completing 83% of his passes this year. I get it we are all frustrated bc we want to win and we want Baker to play well, and it really sucks bc this division is there for the taking and in reality still is. Injuries have really just killed this team and most importantly Baker. I truly believe if Baker didn’t get hurt we would be talking about how we are 8-2/7-3 and the number 1 seed in a weaker AFC. But unfortunately injuries are part of the game.

We've also had significant problems at WR. OBJ was a wreck, and other than the first two games (where Baker played very well) Landry has been beaten up for much of the season.

 

[Real Deal]

We've also had significant problems at WR. OBJ was a wreck, and other than the first two games (where Baker played very well) Landry has been beaten up for much of the season.

It's just a mess of a season. I need to see Baker one more year with some kind of WR core.