Baker Mayfield Gettin' funky on the field

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Los216

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Nov 9, 2012
Messages
24,226
Reaction score
23,477
Points
135
Are you following the argument being made here?

Baker landed in a middle band (15th overall in tied or trailing QB rating) that followed with:

Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater and Jared Goff

1 of those guys was traded for a half eaten bag of chips, 2 are pretty washed, 1 is on his 4th team in 7 years and 1 signed one of the worst QB contracts in recent memory. The guy with a pulse is one of the most electric runners at the position, something Baker has zero in common with.

So, do you believe that you can win a Super Bowl with present day Gardner? Big Ben? Matt Ryan? Teddy B? Goff? That is the argument that is being had here, if you are following the discourse of this thread. These are Mayfield's statistical peers, while only 1 of these guys (Baker) is in an absolutely perfect situation. That is what is and should be concerning. Baker is in an ideal situation and performing at a very average level by the letter of the QB rating law and he's in the grouping of guys who are constantly called bad on this board and around league talking heads. Instead, you believe this Big Ben esque data to be some sort of confirmation that Baker isn't bad, below average, whatever other poor synonym you want to use.......when none of these other similar guys that came after him are anyone who you would say you'd be winning a super bowl with. That is the entire premise of what we have been arguing for 20 pages.......but we keep spinning off in these strange side conversations about what this word means, or if "bad" is too strong of a word, or whatever. Most people would call Big Ben bad.....or Goff bad........and Baker ranks near them in late game performance but is not bad I guess?

In our last 9 games, Baker has had 4 opportunities to engineer a late tying or winning or go ahead drive......those 4 drives resulted in this:

Jets......3-6, 41 yards, lost fumble on 4th down sneak
Chiefs.....3-4, 11 yards, punt....Browns never got the ball back
Chiefs....3-4, 26 yards, INT......game ended
Chargers.....4-7, 21 yards.....drive ended on downs

In the Chiefs playoff game, something that will likely show up in late game "wins" with a blind look at drive stats. The TD drive to start the 4th quarter included this stat line for Baker:

3-5, 12 yards, 0 TD's

In the Jets game, something that will likely show up in late game "wins" with a blind look at drive stats. The TD drive to start the 4th quarter included this stat line for Baker:

1-4, 3 yards, 0 TD's

So he engineered 2 of the TD drives that contribute to some of the stats mentioned in 4th quarters, of him.....you know, not being bad......where he literally did nothing. He was 4-9, for 15 passing yards and 0 TD's.

But lets just set that aside for now.

Baker's QB rating on his last 4 tries to win a game:

53.47

His raw stats:

13-21, 99 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 1 FUM.....4.7 YPA, 7.6 YPC


Is this laid out well enough for you? Or was there a word in here that was too much of an exaggeration that we can talk about instead? Not trying to be cranky but we are quibbling over language instead of seeing what the discussion is....so do you understand what I am saying about Baker?......the observation that, late in games, obvious or do or die passing situations.....he has some really bad tape and results. A litany of things......from bad throws, to bad decisions, to not seeing guys, to wasting half the clock to get a single first down. That is the discussion here.......can this guy close a game on a team trying to win a Super Bowl? Maybe he can......but there is a lot not to like and yes, it has been downright bad, especially recently.

And again.....is this bad?

Stat by Dan Orlovsky this morning: Baker Mayfield is 31st in QBR since enetering the league in one score games in the 4th quarter

You just have to expect more than what we are seeing, for a team trying to win a Super Bowl. I hope Baker goes out and proves this is just a rut but we are 50 games in here. At some point, you will need to make a tough decision if nothing changes.

This is devastating
 

DirtyDan

Sixth Man
Joined
Nov 20, 2017
Messages
1,068
Reaction score
1,189
Points
113
I think the ~better~ measuring stick is last year accounting for player progression.

If you look at the career stats of Josh Allen - they don't look all that hot. However, Allen grew in his system and improved as a player to an MVP level, so his output in 2020 is most indicative of where he is now as a player (compared to 2018 and 2019). His 2021 stats show some regression, but the sample size is not large enough to declare he is ~not~ still 2020 Josh Allen.

2021 is still up in the air because the sample size is small, so the largest sample size we have is 2020. HOWEVER, maybe Baker regresses and 2020 is his outlier year, but we don't have a sample large enough to make that determination at this time.

To bring my point around - he's not simply cherry-picking Baker's best statistical year, he's using the most applicable and probable year as to where Baker resides as a player as of this very moment (2021 sample size is still too small to make any concrete determinations). If Baker had a terrible rookie year, great 2019, and terrible 2020, he'd be using 2020 as the measuring stick still.

Level with me - are we on the same page? Do you disagree with that approach?
Josh Allen ranked top 5 in that list. I agree on the concept of regression and tend to believe Baker is probably somewhere between below average (this year) to average (last year) in unfavorable situations. Guess the word I'm looking for is mediocre? There's just a significant difference in peak performance Josh Allen and peak performance Baker Mayfield right now.

You're right that it's still pretty early in the season but for a 4th year QB to regress from average to whatever this is ... I just hope he can turn it around or we will lose a bunch of close games
 

Vee-Rex

NBA Starter
Joined
Dec 21, 2016
Messages
1,456
Reaction score
3,300
Points
113
Josh Allen ranked top 5 in that list. I agree on the concept of regression and tend to believe Baker is probably somewhere between below average (this year) to average (last year) in unfavorable situations. Guess the word I'm looking for is mediocre? There's just a significant difference in peak performance Josh Allen and peak performance Baker Mayfield right now.

You're right that it's still pretty early in the season but for a 4th year QB to regress from average to whatever this is ... I just hope he can turn it around or we will lose a bunch of close games
Yep.

FYI, the point wasn't to compare where Baker Mayfield is to where Josh Allen is. The point was to illustrate that a person may be a different type of player now than they were from 2015-2019, or 2017-2019, etc... so using career stats to evaluate them might not accurately portray where they stand. Josh Allen himself was just a place-holder example that could be filled by anyone from any sport. Look at Darius Garland - right now is he the player that he was in the 2019-20 season? Regression or progression (this is based on interpretation of stats), probably not.

So I can't really look at 2018-19 Baker when evaluating the player he is now. 2021 will be the most informative when there's enough data there, so I only think it's fair to look at him from 2020 at this point. You're right though that we do want to see better from him.
 

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,127
Reaction score
16,350
Points
123
He's saying that the descriptions used for Baker earlier in this 234908324 page clusterfuck don't match what the data is saying.

Before, the narrative was: "Late in games, Baker is bad/terrible, lost, confused, below-average, Charlie Frye, etc..."

The above ^^ were actual descriptions used against Baker. Then after Bs80 demonstrates that the data set shows he's average/slightly above-average...

Now, the narrative is: "Late in games, Baker is not near the top tier guys, not good enough to win a Super Bowl, look at these names in his grouping (Ben, Ryan, Minshew...)"

There is a shifting of goalposts here, is there not?

He has been consistent more than anyone. I believe I've been consistent, but if you feel I shifted with you and point it out, I'll acknowledge it face-up. There really isn't any room for intellectual dishonesty or flat out lying (I'm not accusing you of either) and I think people need to have the ability to level with each other. At least on this site :chuckle:

Intellectual dishonesty and goalpost moving seems harsh. :chuckle: I think we are arguing over what the exact definition of average is and not assessing if average is good enough. Nothing I have seen intimates Baker is performing at a level anyone should be comfortable with.

Apologies if I used language that was wrong by the definition of average......meaning in the middle. I should have been more thoughtful or clear when describing why I personally don't have a lot of confidence in him. Instead of saying he is below average, I should have said "It is concerning that he statistically profiles closer to Gardner Minshew, than he does Russell Wilson." I think I was getting caught up in the back and forth.

If you read through all of my posts in this thread, the main issue I am trying to debate is wether or not Baker is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Nothing I have seen says he likely is. Are there examples of really strange QB types winning Super Bowls, like Flacco? There are.......but the NFL has just shifted substantially since those times as well.

I think there are stats out there that show he is capable........at least if you give him just the 2020 sample and If you isolate for the +/- 8 stuff. It is far more bleak in the 3rd down stuff, where it is obvious passing downs. 4th down, it is a tiny sample but a mixed bag.

Here is a large stat dump if anyone cares, to try to get this back on track:

+/- 8 in the 4th quarter

2018: 37-59, 62.7%, 490 yards, 8.3 YPA, 3 TD, 5.1 TD%, 2 INT, 3.4% INT, 0 SK, 91.8 Rating
2019: 28-50, 56.0%, 308 yards, 6.2 YPA, 3 TD, 6.0 TD%, 3 INT, 6.0% INT, 4 SK, 69.4 Rating
2020: 32-51, 62.8%, 461 yards, 9.0 YPA, 6 TD, 11.8 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 2 SK, 131.2 Rating
2021: 19-35, 54.3%, 256 yards, 7.3 YPA, 1 TD, 2.9 TD%, 1 INT, 2.9% INT, 2 SK, 75.4 Rating

Cumulative career 4th quarter stats +/- 8

116-195, 59.5%, 1515 yards, 7.8 YPA, 13 TD, 6.7 TD%, 5 INT, 2.6% INT, 8 SK, 93.43 Rating

Cumulative 4th quarter stats +/- 8, Under Stefanski

51-86, 59.3%, 717 yards, 8.3 YPA, 7 TD, 8.1 TD%, 1 INT, 1.2% INT, 4 SK, 108.53 Rating

3rd down performance:

2018: 78-128, 60.9%, 1010 yards, 7.9 YPA, 8 TD, 6.2 TD%, 4 INT, 3.1% INT, 11 SK, 93.6 Rating

2019: 76-141, 53.9%, 847 yards, 6.0 YPA, 6 TD, 4.3 TD%, 7 INT, 5.0% INT, 16 SK, 65.5 Rating
2020: 69-125, 55.2%, 751 yards, 6.0 YPA, 6 TD, 4.8 TD%, 4 INT, 3.2% INT, 5 SK, 75.8 Rating
2021: 17-34, 50.0%, 184 yards, 5.4 YPA, 0 TD, 0.0 TD%, 1 INT, 2.9% INT, 5 SK, 54.0 Rating

***Strangely, by far his best 3rd down year was his first.

Cumulative 3rd down performance:

240-428, 56.1%, 2792 yards, 6.5 YPA, 20 TD, 4.7 TD%, 16 INT, 3.7% INT, 37 SK, 75.99 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance, Under Stefanski:

85-159, 54.0%, 935 yards, 5.9 YPA, 6 TD, 3.7 TD%, 5 INT, 3.1% INT, 10 SK, 70.61 Rating

***Was definitely shocked by this one. That he is somehow a good chunk worse under KS.

4th down performance:

2018: 6-11, 54.5%, 59 yards, 5.4 YPA, 1 TD, 9.1 TD%, 1 INT, 9.1% INT, 0 SK, 62.3 Rating
2019: 5-8, 62.5%, 77 yards, 9.6 YPA, 1 TD, 12.5 TD%, 1 INT, 12.5% INT, 1 SK, 94.3 Rating
2020: 6-12, 50.0%, 74 yards, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 8.3 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 1 SK, 97.6 Rating
2021: 2-4, 50.0%, 50 yards, 12.5 YPA, 0 TD, 0.0 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 3 SK, 95.8 Rating

Cumulative 4th down performance:

19-35, 54.3%, 260 yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 8.6 TD%, 2 INT, 5.7% INT, 5 SK, 83.04 Rating

Cumulative 4th down performance, Under Stefanski:

8-16, 50.0%, 124 yards, 7.75 YPA, 1 TD, 6.25 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 4 SK, 96.88 Rating

Out of all of this data, I think the most surprising thing is seeing 3rd down performance under Stefanski. It really just doesn't look great. My expectation was all his numbers would be significantly better relative to the coaching and situation but really the only cross section of data that stands out is the 4th quarter stats +/- 8 under KS.......everything else looks pretty similar.

For a point of comparison, here is Josh Allen on 3rd down:

3rd down performance:

2018: 43-92, 46.2%, 508 yards, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1.1 TD%, 4 INT, 4.3% INT, 13 SK, 49.0 Rating
2019: 68-121, 56.2%, 833 yards, 6.9 YPA, 8 TD, 6.1 TD%, 2 INT, 1.6% INT, 18 SK, 92.8 Rating
2020: 75-112, 67.0%, 829 yards, 7.4 YPA, 7 TD, 6.2 TD%, 2 INT, 1.8% INT, 11 SK, 102.1 Rating
2021: 21-43, 48.8%, 292 yards, 6.8 YPA, 6 TD, 13.9 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 3 SK, 110.8 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance:

207-368, 56.3%, 2462 yards, 6.7 YPA, 22 TD, 6.0 TD%, 8 INT, 2.2% INT, 45 SK, 87.70 Rating

The progression in Allen is what I would have hoped for from Baker. Not even the same levels......but more of an indication that he is improving year over year. Maybe some of that is situation.......and I guess we'll see this season. But it is disconcerting seeing a young QB like Allen just improve so much year over year on money downs......and see Baker kind of just ping pong all around. I would just worry this is already a lot of data that doesn't paint a great picture. And the likelihood we see a dramatic change is probably pretty slim. Hopefully he can be better.
 
Last edited:

DirtyDan

Sixth Man
Joined
Nov 20, 2017
Messages
1,068
Reaction score
1,189
Points
113
Yep.

FYI, the point wasn't to compare where Baker Mayfield is to where Josh Allen is. The point was to illustrate that a person may be a different type of player now than they were from 2015-2019, or 2017-2019, etc... so using career stats to evaluate them might not accurately portray where they stand. Josh Allen himself was just a place-holder example that could be filled by anyone from any sport. Look at Darius Garland - right now is he the player that he was in the 2019-20 season? Regression or progression (this is based on interpretation of stats), probably not.

So I can't really look at 2018-19 Baker when evaluating the player he is now. 2021 will be the most informative when there's enough data there, so I only think it's fair to look at him from 2020 at this point. You're right though that we do want to see better from him.
You gave an extremely comparable example in Allen so I went with it. :chuckle:

In terms of player development, Baker had made some big strides last year. There's still room for improvement ofcourse, that's why this regression is so frustrating. I just don't expect him to play well beyond his performance last year because his situation was one of the best in the league. Even this year, the offense around him has carried over and now we are seeing his regression.
 

Vee-Rex

NBA Starter
Joined
Dec 21, 2016
Messages
1,456
Reaction score
3,300
Points
113
Intellectual dishonesty and goalpost moving seems harsh. :chuckle: I think we are arguing over what the exact definition of average is and not assessing if average is good enough. Nothing I have seen intimates Baker is performing at a level anyone should be comfortable with.

Apologies if I used language that was wrong by the definition of average......meaning in the middle. I should have been more thoughtful or clear when describing why I personally don't have a lot of confidence in him. Instead of saying he is below average, I should have said "It is concerning that he statistically profiles closer to Gardner Minshew, than he does Russell Wilson." I think I was getting caught up in the back and forth.

If you read through all of my posts in this thread, the main issue I am trying to debate is wether or not Baker is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Nothing I have seen says he likely is. Are there examples of really strange QB types winning Super Bowls, like Flacco? There are.......but the NFL has just shifted substantially since those times as well.

I think there are stats out there that show he is capable........at least if you give him just the 2020 sample and If you isolate for the +/- 8 stuff. It is far more bleak in the 3rd down stuff, where it is obvious passing downs. 4th down, it is a tiny sample but a mixed bag.

Here is a large stat dump if anyone cares, to try to get this back on track:

+/- 8 in the 4th quarter

2018: 37-59, 62.7%, 490 yards, 8.3 YPA, 3 TD, 5.1 TD%, 2 INT, 3.4% INT, 0 SK, 91.8 Rating
2019: 28-50, 56.0%, 308 yards, 6.2 YPA, 3 TD, 6.0 TD%, 3 INT, 6.0% INT, 4 SK, 69.4 Rating
2020: 32-51, 62.8%, 461 yards, 9.0 YPA, 6 TD, 11.8 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 2 SK, 131.2 Rating
2021: 19-35, 54.3%, 256 yards, 7.3 YPA, 1 TD, 2.9 TD%, 1 INT, 2.9% INT, 2 SK, 75.4 Rating

Cumulative career 4th quarter stats +/- 8

116-195, 59.5%, 1515 yards, 7.8 YPA, 13 TD, 6.7 TD%, 5 INT, 2.6% INT, 8 SK, 93.43 Rating

Cumulative 4th quarter stats +/- 8, Under Stefanski

51-86, 59.3%, 717 yards, 8.3 YPA, 7 TD, 8.1 TD%, 1 INT, 1.2% INT, 4 SK, 108.53 Rating

3rd down performance:

2018: 78-128, 60.9%, 1010 yards, 7.9 YPA, 8 TD, 6.2 TD%, 4 INT, 3.1% INT, 11 SK, 93.6 Rating

2019: 76-141, 53.9%, 847 yards, 6.0 YPA, 6 TD, 4.3 TD%, 7 INT, 5.0% INT, 16 SK, 65.5 Rating
2020: 69-125, 55.2%, 751 yards, 6.0 YPA, 6 TD, 4.8 TD%, 4 INT, 3.2% INT, 5 SK, 75.8 Rating
2021: 17-34, 50.0%, 184 yards, 5.4 YPA, 0 TD, 0.0 TD%, 1 INT, 2.9% INT, 5 SK, 54.0 Rating

***Strangely, by far his best 3rd down year was his first.

Cumulative 3rd down performance:

240-428, 56.1%, 2792 yards, 6.5 YPA, 20 TD, 4.7 TD%, 16 INT, 3.7% INT, 37 SK, 75.99 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance, Under Stefanski:

85-159, 54.0%, 935 yards, 5.9 YPA, 6 TD, 3.7 TD%, 5 INT, 3.1% INT, 10 SK, 70.61 Rating

***Was definitely shocked by this one. That he is somehow a good chunk worse under KS.

4th down performance:

2018: 6-11, 54.5%, 59 yards, 5.4 YPA, 1 TD, 9.1 TD%, 1 INT, 9.1% INT, 0 SK, 62.3 Rating
2019: 5-8, 62.5%, 77 yards, 9.6 YPA, 1 TD, 12.5 TD%, 1 INT, 12.5% INT, 1 SK, 94.3 Rating
2020: 6-12, 50.0%, 74 yards, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 8.3 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 1 SK, 97.6 Rating
2021: 2-4, 50.0%, 50 yards, 12.5 YPA, 0 TD, 0.0 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 3 SK, 95.8 Rating

Cumulative 4th down performance:

19-35, 54.3%, 260 yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 8.6 TD%, 2 INT, 5.7% INT, 5 SK, 83.04 Rating

Cumulative 4th down performance, Under Stefanski:

8-16, 50.0%, 124 yards, 7.75 YPA, 1 TD, 6.25 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 4 SK, 96.88 Rating

Out of all of this data, I think the most surprising thing is seeing 3rd down performance under Stefanski. It really just doesn't look great. My expectation was all his numbers would be significantly better relative to the coaching and situation but really the only cross section of data that stands out is the 4th quarter stats +/- 8 under KS.......everything else looks pretty similar.

For a point of comparison, here is Josh Allen on 3rd down:

3rd down performance:

2018: 43-92, 46.2%, 508 yards, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1.1 TD%, 4 INT, 4.3% INT, 13 SK, 49.0 Rating
2019: 68-121, 56.2%, 833 yards, 6.9 YPA, 8 TD, 6.1 TD%, 2 INT, 1.6% INT, 18 SK, 92.8 Rating
2020: 75-112, 67.0%, 829 yards, 7.4 YPA, 7 TD, 6.2 TD%, 2 INT, 1.8% INT, 11 SK, 102.1 Rating
2021: 21-43, 48.8%, 292 yards, 6.8 YPA, 6 TD, 13.9.0 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 3 SK, 110.8 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance:

207-368, 56.3%, 2462 yards, 6.7 YPA, 22 TD, 6.0 TD%, 8 INT, 2.2% INT, 45 SK, 87.70 Rating

The progression in Allen is what I would have hoped for from Baker. Not even the same levels......but more of an indication that he is improving year over year. Maybe some of that is situation.......and I guess we'll see this season. But it is disconcerting seeing a young QB like Allen just improve so much year over year on money downs......and see Baker kind of just ping pong all around. I would just worry this is already a lot of data that doesn't paint a great picture. And the likelihood we see a dramatic change is probably pretty slim. Hopefully he can be better.
Yeah it's easy to get caught up in definitions and what we're trying to convey.

For me personally, while average in those situations (assuming that's where he stands right now, since 2021 hasn't been good) isn't ideal, I don't think it means we ~can't~ win a Super Bowl and I don't think Baker's playoff performance needs to be on the level of Flacco's. I don't know if those situations happen as frequently in the playoffs as people think. My belief is that typically the games are decided throughout all those quarters and a team is in a near-impossible situation trying to close the lead. But I don't have (and am too lazy) to look at data for this to support my opinion.

Regardless, yours is a valid opinion (that Baker being average in those situations probably won't be enough) for sure. I think our slight disagreement falls somewhere in there, but we're both definitely saying we want to see better. I'm not satisfied with his current performance.

Also, thanks for all the data dumps - I know pulling that information as often as you have can get annoying when bickering in these kind of hellacious threads.
 

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,127
Reaction score
16,350
Points
123
Again. Here is another example of 3rd down performance......

3rd down performance of mystery player:

2018: 27-49, 55.1%, 269 yards, 5.5 YPA, 2 TD, 4.1 TD%, 1 INT, 2.0% INT, 7 SK, 76.0 Rating
2019: 57-95, 60.0%, 709 yards, 7.9 YPA, 9 TD, 9.5 TD%, 1 INT, 1.1% INT, 4 SK, 110.4 Rating
2020: 57-94, 60.6%, 676 yards, 7.2 YPA, 8 TD, 8.5 TD%, 4 INT, 4.3% INT, 9 SK, 93.2 Rating
2021: 15-31, 48.4%, 201 yards, 6.5 YPA, 3 TD, 9.7 TD%, 3 INT, 9.7% INT, 7 SK, 62.1 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance of mystery player:

156-269, 58.0%, 1855 yards, 6.9 YPA, 22 TD, 8.2 TD%, 9 INT, 3.3% INT, 27 SK, 92.46 Rating

Cumulative 3rd down performance of Baker Mayfield:

240-428, 56.1%, 2792 yards, 6.5 YPA, 20 TD, 4.7 TD%, 16 INT, 3.7% INT, 37 SK, 75.99 Rating

Lamaar Jackson
 

thestatman

Situational Stopper
Joined
Feb 4, 2018
Messages
777
Reaction score
442
Points
63
Are you following the argument being made here?

Baker landed in a middle band (15th overall in tied or trailing QB rating) that followed with:

Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater and Jared Goff

1 of those guys was traded for a half eaten bag of chips, 2 are pretty washed, 1 is on his 4th team in 7 years and 1 signed one of the worst QB contracts in recent memory. The guy with a pulse is one of the most electric runners at the position, something Baker has zero in common with.

So, do you believe that you can win a Super Bowl with present day Gardner? Big Ben? Matt Ryan? Teddy B? Goff? That is the argument that is being had here, if you are following the discourse of this thread. These are Mayfield's statistical peers, while only 1 of these guys (Baker) is in an absolutely perfect situation. That is what is and should be concerning. Baker is in an ideal situation and performing at a very average level by the letter of the QB rating law and he's in the grouping of guys who are constantly called bad on this board and around league talking heads. Instead, you believe this Big Ben esque data to be some sort of confirmation that Baker isn't bad, below average, whatever other poor synonym you want to use.......when none of these other similar guys that came after him are anyone who you would say you'd be winning a super bowl with. That is the entire premise of what we have been arguing for 20 pages.......but we keep spinning off in these strange side conversations about what this word means, or if "bad" is too strong of a word, or whatever. Most people would call Big Ben bad.....or Goff bad........and Baker ranks near them in late game performance but is not bad I guess?

In our last 9 games, Baker has had 4 opportunities to engineer a late tying or winning or go ahead drive......those 4 drives resulted in this:

Jets......3-6, 41 yards, lost fumble on 4th down sneak
Chiefs.....3-4, 11 yards, punt....Browns never got the ball back
Chiefs....3-4, 26 yards, INT......game ended
Chargers.....4-7, 21 yards.....drive ended on downs

In the Chiefs playoff game, something that will likely show up in late game "wins" with a blind look at drive stats. The TD drive to start the 4th quarter included this stat line for Baker:

3-5, 12 yards, 0 TD's

In the Jets game, something that will likely show up in late game "wins" with a blind look at drive stats. The TD drive to start the 4th quarter included this stat line for Baker:

1-4, 3 yards, 0 TD's

So he engineered 2 of the TD drives that contribute to some of the stats mentioned in 4th quarters, of him.....you know, not being bad......where he literally did nothing. He was 4-9, for 15 passing yards and 0 TD's.

But lets just set that aside for now.

Baker's QB rating on his last 4 tries to win a game:

53.47

His raw stats:

13-21, 99 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT, 1 FUM.....4.7 YPA, 7.6 YPC


Is this laid out well enough for you? Or was there a word in here that was too much of an exaggeration that we can talk about instead? Not trying to be cranky but we are quibbling over language instead of seeing what the discussion is....so do you understand what I am saying about Baker?......the observation that, late in games, obvious or do or die passing situations.....he has some really bad tape and results. A litany of things......from bad throws, to bad decisions, to not seeing guys, to wasting half the clock to get a single first down. That is the discussion here.......can this guy close a game on a team trying to win a Super Bowl? Maybe he can......but there is a lot not to like and yes, it has been downright bad, especially recently.

And again.....is this bad?

Stat by Dan Orlovsky this morning: Baker Mayfield is 31st in QBR since enetering the league in one score games in the 4th quarter

You just have to expect more than what we are seeing, for a team trying to win a Super Bowl. I hope Baker goes out and proves this is just a rut but we are 50 games in here. At some point, you will need to make a tough decision if nothing changes.
Great job of cherry picking to fit your "I hate Baker" agenda. No mention whatsoever that the Browns had ZERO rostered wide receivers for the Jets game. No mention of Mayfield's 4th quarter heroics against Baltimore on national TV when he hung 42 points on that top 5 rated defense. Not a peep regrading a 60 second 80 yard drive with no time outs to beat the Bengals on the road. No mention of how he destroyed Tennessee on the road. And I could go on and on and on.

Let me remind you again. Only Mahomes and Rogers were higher rated quarterbacks ahead of Mayfield last season over the final 3 months. None of that matters though to the Baker hater club members.
 

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,127
Reaction score
16,350
Points
123
Let me remind you again. Only Mahomes and Rogers were higher rated quarterbacks ahead of Mayfield last season over the final 3 months. None of that matters though to the Baker hater club members.

Do you see the irony in whining about cherry picking stats and then using an 8-10 period of games, that consists of 15% of his career, in order to satisfy yours? I just want to make sure we are on the same page here. :chuckle:

As posted above, look at the aggregate 3rd down data......there's some good, but mainly a lot of bad. Draw your own conclusions.

The crux of the issue is that we are now in a position to win.....and Baker's recent performance, late in games, has torpedoed. That recent performance will just matter more. Why? Because expectations have changed. Do you not agree with that?

The higher the expectations of your team go, the more scrutiny. That has always been the nature of sport.
 
Last edited:

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,127
Reaction score
16,350
Points
123
Again, trying to see a variety of data sets here to extinguish the cherry picking narrative.

538's ELO 2021 data

Screen Shot 2021-10-14 at 11.35.42 AM.png
 
Last edited:

Malacogary

Situational Stopper
Joined
Sep 28, 2019
Messages
111
Reaction score
242
Points
43
The sample size this season is far too small to draw any sweeping conclusions. He's played one and a half games minus the issue to his non-throwing shoulder and three and a half with the injury.

It's clear that post-2018-19 Baker is being asked to perform in a different way. Jake Burns yesterday revisited his appreciation of the rookie Mayfield's Out of Structure Big Time Throws. No-one could watch that and think this guy does not have the potential and talent to be an absolutely top-tier NFL QB.

Part of Stefanski's task in Cleveland was to correct the 'bad habits' Baker had picked up under Freddie Kitchens' stewardship. That corrective work appears to be have been pretty successful last year. I think the work this year would have been to build on that jettisoning of the turnovers from Mayfield's game but to harness the dynamic playmaking elements we all saw in multiple games in 2018.

I think the shoulder issue has derailed that work for both player and coaches, for the time being. Downfield throws are clearly difficult—physically and mentally—for Baker currently, but the national narrative seems to be that they flat-out always will be. I think that's a gross misreading of the player's skillset. Anyone's who's watched Baker for a concerted period of time knows his arm strength and his ability to make those throws off-platform and down the field has been at times extraordinary. I'd rank that part of his game as potentially upper-tier NFL level.

The Bears and Vikings games were a tough watch in terms of QB play. No-one is pretending they weren't. But last weekend showed definite signs of adjustment in terms of the scope of what Baker was being asked to do while hobbled by the shoulder problem. Hopefully the shoulder will improve as the season goes on and we'll again see decent play from him.

Stats about rating in the fourth quarter are useful obviously, but game situation plays a huge part in that. Last year Baker was statistically unremarkable in the fourth quarter throughout the season as he was often looking to close out games in which we often led. We can all remember instances where Baker was asked to make one throw to effectively ice games and could not do it (Colts, Dallas, spring to mind). In those situations when asked about Mayfield's specific struggles Stefanski was diplomatic, using language like "I'll have to call better plays" but while his intention was to shield his starter the inference has been taken in some quarters that he does not trust Mayfield. But it was a relatively small number of occasions and the team came through with plays like Beckham's long TD run in Dallas, Chubb's long runs v. the Eagles and Texans. Those are different situations from constructing answering drives while one score behind. That was something Mayfield had to do infrequently (from memory hosting Baltimore and visiting NYJ), results were varied but so was context.

Nick Chubb's fourth quarter statistics are pretty remarkable. We can have those, or 'heroic production' from Baker. But we cannot have both. I know I'd rather be running the football in the fourth quarter than throwing up and down the field again and again from behind. It's like how I'd expect Matt Stafford's fourth quarter numbers to presumably look completely different in LA than they did in Detroit over time.

Bottom line was eleven wins in 2020. As the ancient Chinese philosopher once said: It doesn't matter if your cat is a black cat, or a white cat. As long as he catches mice he is a good cat.
 
Last edited:

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,127
Reaction score
16,350
Points
123
Bottom line was eleven wins in 2020. As the ancient Chinese philosopher once said: It doesn't matter if your cat is a black cat, or a white cat. As long as he catches mice he is a good cat.

You lost me on the dismount.

So is Jared Goff a good cat?

The Rams were 10-6 with him as QB.

I think we can live in a world where team performance can be good, in-spite of QB play.

That isn't to say Baker is Jared Goff but the attribution of team success, relative to QB play, is pretty cloudy in some instances.

ELO, Rating, QBR.......most of these say Baker is a pretty average QB, with QBR liking him most at #10 overall last season. A number and rank he has not come close to in his other 2.25 seasons. ELO was #16, Rating #15. We'll see how the rest of 2021 goes.
 
Last edited:

RBF Podcast

Additional text can be placed above or below the player.
Top