Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[I'mWithDan]

I don't mean to say the data is meaningless, I'm sure scouts can use it to quantify differences in players. But to scour the bushes until you find an Achille's heel somewhere in ratings that are filtered in a specific way, then use that to make broader judgements is not how I'm going to assess Mayfield or as some predictor of what his future performance will be. You can have at it and hang your hat on it if you want.

I really don't think that is what is happening. Scouring the bushes, as you would put it. The back and forth that happened should have been a bit more thoughtful, which is why I haven't ignored people asking specific questions the last few pages, I simply was just trying to gather a better, more concise, more comprehensive collection of data to share, that I actually think is pretty interesting to try to discuss.

A lot of people get caught up in things like "clutch" or pinning 4th quarter performance on just the QB.....which I get, it is a small sample size and there's a lot of variance there. So, as was discussed by myself and also @CBBI (sorry if I missed anyone else who brought it up as well), I more just have a hard time understanding how horrific Mayfield has been on third down......and additionally, how he has performed even worse under Stefanski.

I chose a stat that hasn't, from what I have seen, been talked about ad nauseam but one that does some quick and dirty analysis.....and includes something like sacks for example, which rating does not. ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt.....and looking at Mayfield's 3rd down performance specifically.....both in his career and then under Stefanski. Then comparing it to his peers on an attempt basis but then also (RTM), which is Relative To Median. So what is the number itself and then how far above or below the median is that number.

I threw out retired QB's from the 2020 leaders list and ended up here. If I missed someone, please let me know. A near majority (11), simply fall within +/- 5% of median. Then there is Mahomes, at near outlier status (absolute absurdity)........or Rodgers, on a 1700+ attempt data set (also, absolute absurdity)......but then there is also Darnold, Tannehill and Mayfield, which are another factor below the bottom.

I can post some 1st and 2nd down stuff as well........but the median performance on 1st and 2nd down isn't a large shift downward (12%). So it doesn't appear to be some oddity between the down sets.

But with all of that said, can anyone begin to explain how Baker can be this bad? Just relative to his play on 1st and 2nd down? He is not just bad......he is Sam Darnold bad.........and he's worse under (KS).



EDIT: Apologies, I had numbers wrong on Tannehill and it fucked up some of the median numbers. They are now corrected above. It doesn't change what these charts are saying (Mayfield having such a crazy disparity relative to the Median) but it does shift them slightly. Just wanted to be transparent that I made a mistake as I was manually pulling some of this data and the post was corrected.

 

[bs80]

I really don't think that is what is happening. Scouring the bushes, as you would put it. The back and forth that happened should have been a bit more thoughtful, which is why I haven't ignored people asking specific questions the last few pages, I simply was just trying to gather a better, more concise, more comprehensive collection of data to share, that I actually think is pretty interesting to try to discuss.

A lot of people get caught up in things like "clutch" or pinning 4th quarter performance on just the QB.....which I get, it is a small sample size and there's a lot of variance there. So, as was discussed by myself and also @CBBI (sorry if I missed anyone else who brought it up as well), I more just have a hard time understanding how horrific Mayfield has been on third down......and additionally, how he has performed even worse under Stefanski.

I chose a stat that hasn't, from what I have seen, been talked about ad nauseam but one that does some quick and dirty analysis.....and includes something like sacks for example, which rating does not. ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt.....and looking at Mayfield's 3rd down performance specifically.....both in his career and then under Stefanski. Then comparing it to his peers on an attempt basis but then also (RTM), which is Relative To Median. So what is the number itself and then how far above or below the median is that number.

I threw out retired QB's from the 2020 leaders list and ended up here. If I missed someone, please let me know. A near majority (11), simply fall within +/- 5% of median. Then there is Mahomes, at near outlier status (absolute absurdity)........or Rodgers, on a 1700+ attempt data set (also, absolute absurdity)......but then there is also Darnold and Mayfield, which are another factor below the bottom.

I can post some 1st and 2nd down stuff as well........but the median performance on 1st and 2nd down is nearly identical to 3rd (within 0.05 ANY/A). So it doesn't appear to be some oddity between the down sets.

But with all of that said, can anyone begin to explain how Baker can be this bad? Just relative to his play on 1st and 2nd down? He is not just bad......he is Sam Darnold bad.........and he's a factor worse than Sam Darnold under (KS).

View attachment 6745

Really interesting way to look at it. Is this for QBs' entire careers (aside from splitting Baker into pre and post KS)?

A couple shot-in-the-dark theories that I can maybe throw out there off of the top of my head...

1) Maybe with our running game, Baker is not in 3rd and long situations very often so he doesn't have to throw long to pick up a 1st down? If you found a way to compile all this data, could you relatively easily find out what the average distance to go in 3rd downs for these QBs are? If this is the case then perhaps you can do a separate study of 3rd down conversion rates for QBs?

2) Stefanski feels he is in 4 down territory more often than most coaches so Baker is coaches to take the yards that are available? This is even more of a long shot to be a viable explanation.

Just to be clear, I'm just speculating because you asked if anyone could provide a possible explanation. Hope this helps.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Really interesting way to look at it. Is this for QBs' entire careers (aside from splitting Baker into pre and post KS)?

A couple shot-in-the-dark theories that I can maybe throw out there off of the top of my head...

1) Maybe with our running game, Baker is not in 3rd and long situations very often so he doesn't have to throw long to pick up a 1st down? If you found a way to compile all this data, could you relatively easily find out what the average distance to go in 3rd downs for these QBs are? If this is the case then perhaps you can do a separate study of 3rd down conversion rates for QBs?

2) Stefanski feels he is in 4 down territory more often than most coaches so Baker is coaches to take the yards that are available? This is even more of a long shot to be a viable explanation.

Just to be clear, I'm just speculating because you asked if anyone could provide a possible explanation. Hope this helps.

Yeah, it's all good. People should speculate when stats are this weird, to try to directionally throw out some ideas to investigate.

It is a career look. I did both career and Stefanski for Baker, as his Stefanski 3rd down numbers are even more bizarre (Sooooooo much worse than the median).

#1 Possibly, although I honestly don't know which number would have a more negative effect on ANY/A.......is it an excess of long throws? Or a lack of them? I'd have to dig a little more.

#2 It is possible this could account for a small dip but one this large seems pretty unlikely. The Browns have gone for it on 4th more this year but we have also been a lot worse on 3rd down (thus far)....down 12.5% comparatively speaking from last year. So it seems like that is probably more cause and effect.

To be fair to Baker, these stats are so interesting to me not because he is just a bad QB but because there is such a ridiculously wide gap here. The median performance dip on third down is around 12%. 10 of 24 QB's (42%) perform within 10% on 1st/2nd and 3rd. Then there's 7 above and 7 below that +/- 10% mark. Of the 7, comparatively speaking, Baker is 35% worse than the second largest passing performance reduction (Lamar). That is a mind blowing large number.

I also don't want people to feel like this is negative stat fest, so here is 1st/2nd down. Baker is really good for his career.......and approaching great under Stefanski. ANY/A 1st & 2nd down..... and then Performance Relative to Median.



EDIT: Apologies, I had numbers wrong on Tannehill and it fucked up some of the median numbers. They are now corrected above. It doesn't change what these charts are saying (Mayfield having such a crazy disparity relative to the Median) but it does shift them slightly. Just wanted to be transparent that I made a mistake as I was manually pulling some of this data and the post was corrected.

 

[bs80]

Yeah, it's all good. People should speculate when stats are this weird, to try to directionally throw out some ideas to investigate.

It is a career look. I did both career and Stefanski for Baker, as his Stefanski 3rd down numbers are even more bizarre (Sooooooo much worse than the median).

#1 Possibly, although I honestly don't know which number would have a more negative effect on ANY/A.......is it an excess of long throws? Or a lack of them? I'd have to dig a little more.

#2 It is possible this could account for a small dip but one this large seems pretty unlikely. The Browns have gone for it on 4th more this year but we have also been a lot worse on 3rd down (thus far)....down 12.5% comparatively speaking from last year. So it seems like that is probably more cause and effect.

To be fair to Baker, these stats are so interesting to me not because he is just a bad QB but because there is such a ridiculously wide gap here. The median performance dip on third down is around 4%. 13 of 24 QB's (54%) perform within 10% on 1st/2nd and 3rd. Then there's 5 above and 5 below that mark that +/- 10% mark. Of the 5, comparatively speaking, Baker is 25% worse than the second largest passing performance reduction (Lamar). That is a mind blowing large number.

I also don't want people to feel like this is negative stat fest, so here is 1st/2nd down. Baker is really good for his career.......and approaching great under Stefanski. ANY/A 1st & 2nd down..... and then Performance Relative to Median.

View attachment 6747

Thanks. I think you're being plenty fair here by pointing out the huge split between early down and third down stats and trying to get opinions on what could possibly cause that divide.

I'd personally start by looking up the average distance to go on 3rd down, as well as the number of 3rd down opportunities to get an idea of sample size, just in case. I'd also look up the percentage of 3rd downs that are successfully converted for each QB. If Baker converts a respectable percentage of his 3rd downs, then that would be more important than the number of yards he averages. Once again, I don't have an inkling of what these numbers will be, but if you could dig those up, I think that would give us a better clue of why your original data is what it is.

 

[bgfalcon]

As much as I hate to say it, stick a fork in this guy he’s done.

 

[Dr. Gymbo]

Such a mixed bag, the inconsistency is killer

 

[N7RobBob]

This is a perfect game for Baker to either shut up his critics and earn that extension or take the L. This team needs him to show up big to pull this off.

 

[Real Deal]

Not gonna front.

Kyler Murray is what I (or we) thought Baker Mayfield would be.

The season is in the shitter for now. Woods, Hunt, OBJ, Baker's shoulder, Kevin's playcalling... without counting a playoff win vs a very shitty Big Ben, who the fuck do we beat in the National Football League? Couldn't beat Mahomes or Lamar, lost a good one last week. Lost to Kyler today.

If this team has you positive... I don't know how

 

[Vee-Rex]

Wouldn’t mind having that 306 yard 2 TD 70% completion with 0 turnovers performance right about now. Too many YAC though, right?

THIS was a trash game. This team has some serious problems all around.

 

[Kbiz]

Not gonna front.

Kyler Murray is what I (or we) thought Baker Mayfield would be.

The season is in the shitter for now. Woods, Hunt, OBJ, Baker's shoulder, Kevin's playcalling... without counting a playoff win vs a very shitty Big Ben, who the fuck do we beat in the National Football League? Couldn't beat Mahomes or Lamar, lost a good one last week. Lost to Kyler today.

If this team has you positive... I don't know how

The inconsistency is frustrating. I have seen this team play great at times but it's either on offense or defense - never felt like we've dominated a complete game outside of Chicago. The troubling sign is that we seem to be trending downward at the moment.

Still think we have the personnel to make some noise - feels eerily similar to last year's early season woes but there's less patience considering contention window setup for now financial wise.

 

[Mr. Orange]

Wouldn’t mind having that 306 yard 2 TD 70% completion with 0 turnovers performance right about now. Too many YAC though, right?

THIS was a trash game. This team has some serious problems all around.

That was abundantly clear after games 1 and 2 for those who didn’t have brown and orange glasses. Look, the Browns don’t suck, but as I have said from week 1, this is a fringe playoff team. I still have us around 8-10 wins, but losing the last two which I had at 40% ish for both brings that Pythagorean win closer to 9 for the year. Average team. Can make the playoffs with a few breaks. Can miss with some bad breaks. Super Bowl? Lmao.

Next time let’s tamp the brakes on the SB talk until we win the division.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Wouldn’t mind having that 306 yard 2 TD 70% completion with 0 turnovers performance right about now. Too many YAC though, right?

I’m somewhat surprised someone has not said he had a 100+ rating yet.

I say that tongue and cheek. More of the same today. Wildly up and down.

He is one tough dude but the Hollywood throw is one that will have him out of the league in a few years.

He has a ton of talent but consistency is a skill. And Baker somehow needs to figure out how to become a more consistent as a player.

 

[CBBI]

Not gonna front.

Kyler Murray is what I (or we) thought Baker Mayfield would be.

They're actually quite similar. Short QB's who have huge arms and very good accuracy who because of their college system still lack anticipation and need to see it open before they throw it.

But Murray and Mayfield have two game-changing differences.

1. Kyler is one of the best athletes in the world at the QB position and Baker is a poor athlete. Mayfield has had what... a dozen scrambles this year that have only gone for 2-3 yards because he's so slow? Those are 10 yard gains and first downs for Murray.

2. Because of this athleticism gap, Murray also has a much better ability to calmly navigate chaos around him and thus is significantly better against pressure than Mayfield will likely ever be.

 

[Binkster]

Morals be damned. Get me Watson.

 

[DirtyDan]

Baker Mayfield is the personification of a rollercoaster