Baker Mayfield - Wake up calls

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WellYouNeednt

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Do we really believe his problems are more “mental” and intangible like “not having fun?” Serious question.
I definitely believe it is a possibility, but more so, based on organizational stability. Let us take Alex Smith, for example, in San Fran he looked pretty awful in what was a merry-go-round of front office, coaches, systems; etc. Once he was somewhere stable he looked consistent and effective. Now, before anyone jumps in and says — he is NOT Alex Smith(!) — i am not making that comparison. I am making the correlation between stability and potential growth/success.

I do not think anyone will argue that Cleveland, in essence, has been a model of dysfunction and how to make questionable decisions for an organization. All things considered — I want him to be successful and not have to start all over with the QB search. We all know that is not a one Draft and done process.
 

6.19.2016

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Footballoutsiders stats are up:



Lots of analysis of OBJ.

Playoff odds now dow from 37% to 21.6%, and we are in top 5 odds for the #1 pick.

Baker 31st in DYAR; Lamar 2nd. In last place...insert "Cahson Wenz gon' be a staaaah" jokes.
 

CBBI

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The Browns should absolutely positively not go to Case Keenum for any reason other than Baker Mayfield breaking his neck.

We know what Case Keenum is and what he isn’t. He’s a journeyman backup who can play in a pinch. Not a full-time starter.

I want Baker to play all 16 games this year and either sink or swim. If he sinks, so be it. Draft his replacement next year.

But benching him in a futile effort to win more games this year ain’t the answer for a few reasons.

1. You never know with Haslam, but considering the Chief Strategy Officer, GM and HC are all on the same page for the first time in Haslam’s tenure, you’d think Stefanski is safe from being fired regardless of record in Year 1.

2. It’s early, and Baltimore may be the best offense they’ll face all year, but the Browns defense might be one of the league’s worst with the injuries already piling up. It doesn’t appear to be a playoff caliber defense right now at least. If that’s the reality, we’ll know by midseason which should discourage a desperate QB change.

3. If the Browns are destined to go 4-12 this year, so be it. I’d much rather go 4-12 and definitively get the answer that Mayfield isn’t the guy, than have Mayfield go 4-9 and Keenum finish off the year and 2-1.

If Baker’s gonna be bad, then the team is going to follow suit and I’d rather just have that happen and be in a position to draft his replacement.
 

Los216

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The Browns should absolutely positively not go to Case Keenum for any reason other than Baker Mayfield breaking his neck.

We know what Case Keenum is and what he isn’t. He’s a journeyman backup who can play in a pinch. Not a full-time starter.

I want Baker to play all 16 games this year and either sink or swim. If he sinks, so be it. Draft his replacement next year.

But benching him in a futile effort to win more games this year ain’t the answer for a few reasons.

1. You never know with Haslam, but considering the Chief Strategy Officer, GM and HC are all on the same page for the first time in Haslam’s tenure, you’d think Stefanski is safe from being fired regardless of record in Year 1.

2. It’s early, and Baltimore may be the best offense they’ll face all year, but the Browns defense might be one of the league’s worst with the injuries already piling up. It doesn’t appear to be a playoff caliber defense right now at least. If that’s the reality, we’ll know by midseason which should discourage a desperate QB change.

3. If the Browns are destined to go 4-12 this year, so be it. I’d much rather go 4-12 and definitively get the answer that Mayfield isn’t the guy, than have Mayfield go 4-9 and Keenum finish off the year and 2-1.

If Baker’s gonna be bad, then the team is going to follow suit and I’d rather just have that happen and be in a position to draft his replacement.
I want to see OBJ, Landry, Hooper, Njoku (when he's healthy), Chubb, and Hunt with good QB play. I want to be sure that we're a QB away. If Baker sucks and plays every game then there's still some question marks throughout the offense.
 

chrisrich91

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I want to see OBJ, Landry, Hooper, Njoku (when he's healthy), Chubb, and Hunt with good QB play. I want to be sure that we're a QB away. If Baker sucks and plays every game then there's still some question marks throughout the offense.
We've seen all these guys with good QB play at one time or another. They're plenty good.

I'm much less concerned with making sure that we're just a QB away than I am with making sure we can acquire said QB this upcoming offseason.
 

Bob_The_Cat

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I definitely believe it is a possibility, but more so, based on organizational stability. Let us take Alex Smith, for example, in San Fran he looked pretty awful in what was a merry-go-round of front office, coaches, systems; etc. Once he was somewhere stable he looked consistent and effective. Now, before anyone jumps in and says — he is NOT Alex Smith(!) — i am not making that comparison. I am making the correlation between stability and potential growth/success.

I do not think anyone will argue that Cleveland, in essence, has been a model of dysfunction and how to make questionable decisions for an organization. All things considered — I want him to be successful and not have to start all over with the QB search. We all know that is not a one Draft and done process.
How many QBs that were top 10 picks have sucked at their first team but gone onto success elsewhere? Smith is one of the few I can think of in the modern era. They either tend to succeed right away or just flame out of the league.

I guess Tannehill could be on that list too, but the list is pretty thin. Granted, since these guys were top 10 picks it typically means they're going to situations where there likely hasn't been much stability. That being said, history would tell us the odds of Baker succeeding somewhere after leaving the Browns is pretty slim. It'd still give us plenty of time to think of all the guys we passed on though.
 

col63onel

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The Browns should absolutely positively not go to Case Keenum for any reason other than Baker Mayfield breaking his neck.

We know what Case Keenum is and what he isn’t. He’s a journeyman backup who can play in a pinch. Not a full-time starter.

I want Baker to play all 16 games this year and either sink or swim. If he sinks, so be it. Draft his replacement next year.

But benching him in a futile effort to win more games this year ain’t the answer for a few reasons.

1. You never know with Haslam, but considering the Chief Strategy Officer, GM and HC are all on the same page for the first time in Haslam’s tenure, you’d think Stefanski is safe from being fired regardless of record in Year 1.

2. It’s early, and Baltimore may be the best offense they’ll face all year, but the Browns defense might be one of the league’s worst with the injuries already piling up. It doesn’t appear to be a playoff caliber defense right now at least. If that’s the reality, we’ll know by midseason which should discourage a desperate QB change.

3. If the Browns are destined to go 4-12 this year, so be it. I’d much rather go 4-12 and definitively get the answer that Mayfield isn’t the guy, than have Mayfield go 4-9 and Keenum finish off the year and 2-1.

If Baker’s gonna be bad, then the team is going to follow suit and I’d rather just have that happen and be in a position to draft his replacement.
What if we are 3-6, we're pretty sure Baker isn't the answer, but the team is gonna win jusr enough games to keep us from drafting top 3? Play Keenum and tank?
 

Bob_The_Cat

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I'm starting to wonder if perhaps FOs need to be a bit more careful when evaluating QB's from the powerhouse schools.

Obviously this is debatable, but here's one list of the top 10 QB's in the league to start the season:

  1. Mahomes (10th, Texas Tech)
  2. Jackson (32nd, Louisville)
  3. Wilson (75th, Grad transfer to Wisc from NCST)
  4. Brees (32nd, Purdue)
  5. Watson (12th, Clemson)
  6. Prescott (135th, Mississippi State)
  7. Stafford (1st, Georgia)
  8. Wentz (2nd, North Dakota State)
  9. Brady. (199th, Michigan)
  10. Big Ben (7th, Miami of Ohio)

Brady and Stafford are the only two that came from what people would consider true powerhouse schools, and Brady didn't exactly have impressive numbers out of college to say the least. Clemson has only recently become a powerhouse, and Watson was pretty instrumental in getting them to that point.

While their respective teams might've been good while they were there, the vast majority of the top 10 QBs didn't come from situations where their offenses had a level of talent that simply overwhelmed the defense and in turn made the QB look better than they are. The QB's at the smaller schools had to elevate the level of play of the people around them, which could be why they tend to have a better track record long-term. I think this is why we tend to see guys come out of places like OSU, Alabama, and so on and not be successful in the NFL. Once there isn't a clear talent deficit, things become harder.

Looking at both Murray and Baker over the next year or two is going to be really interesting. Both were just loaded at the skill positions with multiple 1st rounders over the past few years. Watching Murray play, I think he's the better QB overall, but AZ was probably a better situation too.

It's just interesting that when you look at that list, Clemson is the only recent national champ represented.
 
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bigfoot5415

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  1. Mahomes (10th, Texas Tech)
  2. Jackson (32nd, Louisville)
  3. Wilson (75th, Grad transfer to Wisc from NCST)
  4. Brees (32nd, Purdue)
  5. Watson (12th, Clemson)
  6. Prescott (135th, Mississippi State)
  7. Stafford (1st, Georgia)
  8. Wentz (2nd, North Dakota State)
  9. Brady. (199th, Michigan)
  10. Big Ben (7th, Miami of Ohio)
Some added notes for perspective for everyone. As Bob pointed out, most of these situations were good systems before the QB got there. No one outside of Stafford had a complete dumpster fire to turn around. Id argue Stafford has underachieved in his career with Detroit being a big reason he has never reached team success.

1) Mahomes- KC was in the WC
2) Jackson- 9-7 w/ a Super Bowl winning coach
3) Wilson - Extraordinary defense in place. Excellent coach.
4) Brees - Built up a franchise after he left SD.
5) Watson- 9-7. He was able to play free his rookie year and take his Ls
6) Prescott- Great team in place. Romos injury had a huge impact on their previous seasons success.
8) Wentz- Solid team in place. Were 7-9 the previous year
9) Brady- Had GOAT coach & was behind a damn good QB
10) Big Ben- HOF coach, solid program, great defense & a HOF RB, HOF WR

Everyone came into success and a solid program. Baker came into the fucking fire. It keeps getting worse every time we have to change a part. He is to blame for some stuff, but lets not act like everyone would be successful here given the circumstances.

Run the ball 30-40 times a game, PA off of that. Give him easy reads and easy success until he finds his way in this offense. Shouldnt be too hard.
 

Jack Brickman

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but lets not act like everyone would be successful here given the circumstances.
I would argue that most of the QBs you listed probably would have failed here. Maybe not this year because I think we have an actual decent team with some star players on both sides of the ball, but the year they were drafted certainly. Maybe a couple of them would have been just too good to fail, but development, or lack thereof, matters a great deal. Our teams have never developed players for shit because we're constantly changing coaching staffs every year or two.
 

Malacogary

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Some added notes for perspective for everyone. As Bob pointed out, most of these situations were good systems before the QB got there. No one outside of Stafford had a complete dumpster fire to turn around. Id argue Stafford has underachieved in his career with Detroit being a big reason he has never reached team success.

1) Mahomes- KC was in the WC
2) Jackson- 9-7 w/ a Super Bowl winning coach
3) Wilson - Extraordinary defense in place. Excellent coach.
4) Brees - Built up a franchise after he left SD.
5) Watson- 9-7. He was able to play free his rookie year and take his Ls
6) Prescott- Great team in place. Romos injury had a huge impact on their previous seasons success.
8) Wentz- Solid team in place. Were 7-9 the previous year
9) Brady- Had GOAT coach & was behind a damn good QB
10) Big Ben- HOF coach, solid program, great defense & a HOF RB, HOF WR

Everyone came into success and a solid program. Baker came into the fucking fire. It keeps getting worse every time we have to change a part. He is to blame for some stuff, but lets not act like everyone would be successful here given the circumstances.

Run the ball 30-40 times a game, PA off of that. Give him easy reads and easy success until he finds his way in this offense. Shouldnt be too hard.
I agree with every point made here. A rounded analysis.
 

6.19.2016

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I'm starting to wonder if perhaps FOs need to be a bit more careful when evaluating QB's from the powerhouse schools.

Obviously this is debatable, but here's one list of the top 10 QB's in the league to start the season:

  1. Mahomes (10th, Texas Tech)
  2. Jackson (32nd, Louisville)
  3. Wilson (75th, Grad transfer to Wisc from NCST)
  4. Brees (32nd, Purdue)
  5. Watson (12th, Clemson)
  6. Prescott (135th, Mississippi State)
  7. Stafford (1st, Georgia)
  8. Wentz (2nd, North Dakota State)
  9. Brady. (199th, Michigan)
  10. Big Ben (7th, Miami of Ohio)

Brady and Stafford are the only two that came from what people would consider true powerhouse schools, and Brady didn't exactly have impressive numbers out of college to say the least. Clemson has only recently become a powerhouse, and Watson was pretty instrumental in getting them to that point.

While their respective teams might've been good while they were there, the vast majority of the top 10 QBs didn't come from situations where their offenses had a level of talent that simply overwhelmed the defense and in turn made the QB look better than they are. The QB's at the smaller schools had to elevate the level of play of the people around them, which could be why they tend to have a better track record long-term. I think this is why we tend to see guys come out of places like OSU, Alabama, and so on and not be successful in the NFL. Once there isn't a clear talent deficit, things become harder.

Looking at both Murray and Baker over the next year or two is going to be really interesting. Both were just loaded at the skill positions with multiple 1st rounders over the past few years. Watching Murray play, I think he's the better QB overall, but AZ was probably a better situation too.

It's just interesting that when you look at that list, Clemson is the only recent national champ represented.
It was a flukish situation that Pig Pen got passed over for big-name D1 offers in the first place; Findlay's coach started his son at QB and stuck Ben at WR.

Ben absolutely appeared to be a can't-miss at the time despite his school, specifically because he drug mid-major talent to nearly the same ranking at OSU that year.
 

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