Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[CBBI]

Said the above prior to the Colts game and it’ll ring true until Baker makes big strides. Teams will just look to keep him in the pocket, take away options around the hashes and the middle-of-the-field, and keep a safety over-the-top. Until he beats that type of a scheme/game plan, there’s no reason for defenses to do anything different.

I've been very hard on Baker, but my counter to this is that not every team has the defensive personnel to do what Baltimore and Pittsburgh were able to do so effectively.

Not every team is capable of taking away the threat of the wide zone while also limiting the rushing attack up the middle while also relentlessly pressuring the quarterback with exotic zone blitz packages that play into his skittishness AND his struggles to read underneath coverage.

 

[adam81king]

There is no QB in the league with more time to throw this season than Baker Mayfield at 3.2 seconds

he’s not a victim of pressure, he’s a cause of it

even this week he was at 3.3 seconds

and I know someone’s going to come in and say how time to attempt isn’t the perfect stat as if any perfect stat exists.

the stat has its flaws, but it heavily correlates to how much time you have to throw in tandem with how quick your reads are. And it’s pretty damning for Mayfield. The next closest is Josh Allen at 3.07 and Drew Lock is the only other guy above 3 at 3.05

pig pen is the quickest in the league at 2.33 for reference

I've been very hard on Baker, but my counter to this is that not every team has the defensive personnel to do what Baltimore and Pittsburgh were able to do so effectively.

Not every team is capable of taking away the threat of the wide zone while also limiting the rushing attack up the middle while also relentlessly pressuring the quarterback with exotic zone blitz packages that play into his skittishness AND his struggles to read underneath coverage.

The counter to your counter is, we face those teams for 25% of our schedule *every* year...meaning, we're lucky to finish better than 3rd in our division. That a guy we want to rally around? Brian Homer could do that for us.

 

[The Oi]

The counter to your counter is, we face those teams for 25% of our schedule *every* year...meaning, we're lucky to finish better than 3rd in our division. That a guy we want to rally around? Brian Homer could do that for us.

Brian Homer!

 

[Los216]

I think people are being too dismissive in looking into Matt Ryan. I know he's older but he has a good 4 years left in him. I just think the familiarity with the offense and even some of the personnel is a plus. You know what to expect out of his play and it won't be a huge learning curve for him. It would be an easier transition than Tom Brady going from NE to Bruce Arians system.

His contract looks insane but it's only like that for 2 more years. There's a lot of dead money that ATL will be on the hook for but they're drafting a QB in the top 5 next year anyway. I also think they are going to trade Julio and really tear it down. So the money looks insane with Ryan but it's more than manageable. I do believe that acquiring a veteran like Ryan and drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds to sit behind him for a year or two is a very safe choice. You can still try to win right now and groom his successor.

Of course there's going to be some disgruntled replies but there are a lot of worse options than acquiring Matt Ryan and drafting a QB of the future next year. The Packers drafted a QB in the first round and they have Aaron Rodgers. I still think Rodgers is one of the top 3 QB's in the league but GB still drafted a guy who they can groom for at least a year or two. It's not a horrible idea. If you really trust this coaching staff and FO then you have to trust that they can find a guy who they can groom for the position and do just fine with a veteran QB in the meantime.

I also think that Matt Ryan's contract and The Falcons current state should drastically lower the asking price for him. I don't think it will cost you a 1st round pick to get Matt Ryan. You may have to re-evaluate how some money is spread around on the roster but those things work themselves out over time eventually. For instance, we aren't paying Joe Schobert a big contract and at this point I don't think we'll be giving Larry Ogunjobi a big contract either. I really liked both players but I don't know if this FO will keep Ogunjobi beyond this season. We obviously would need a decent replacement for him just like Schobert but maybe some of the money we thought we'd be playing up for some guys won't happen.

I think this next draft should be heavily invested in the defense and taking a QB with our first pick. I don't think any of the available QB's will cost us a 1st round pick in the offseason so we're likely gonna still have our first to take whatever QB we believe is the best one at our spot.

 

[Los216]

@Out of the Rafters at the Q

Do you want to share with the rest of the class what you think is so funny?

 

[Malacogary]

I've been very hard on Baker, but my counter to this is that not every team has the defensive personnel to do what Baltimore and Pittsburgh were able to do so effectively.

Not every team is capable of taking away the threat of the wide zone while also limiting the rushing attack up the middle while also relentlessly pressuring the quarterback with exotic zone blitz packages that play into his skittishness AND his struggles to read underneath coverage.

This is a sensible and reasoned position to take. Baker has limitations but I believe he is and always has been a confidence player. Without that confidence in his ability he's probably a sub-par NFL QB. That cockiness and aggression he showed in his rookie year has been severely knocked by successive factors. The coaching staff have to build it up again. Aside form all the other work involved in creating a competitive football team from one which historically struggles they also have to take into account that finding and nurturing some growth in Baker is the most important job of 2020. Asking him to be a game manager in a run-oriented offense is fine as long as that running game is humming. The loss of Nick Chubb is huge and I think we are all guilty of underplaying that because we didn't want to have to face the fact that his absense severely limits the chances of this team winning football games. He's a special back and while Kareem Hunt is great at what he does their skillsets are not directly interchangeable. Running the ball has been significantly tougher in the last three games without Chubb. Watching Baker having to pick up that slack has at times been grisly.

Mayfield's biggest problem at the moment is fear of turnovers. He's holding the ball too long even when the protection is good (and contrary to the initial eyetest it was often-times good enough on Sunday). He's not trusting what he's seeing and scared to death to make a mistake, thus walking into the very thing he fears most. The Big Time Throws have almost left his repertoire completely, which is the saddest part of the spectacle. Take the ad hoc stuff and down the field throws into tight windows away from him and he looks exactly what he is: a guy who's not big enough or athletic enough to survive physically in this league and who's probably not going to dink and dunk his way down the field six times a game. That risk-taking side of his game has to be restored because without it he has no chance to have a future in Cleveland or anywhere else. I still think Baker has it in him to find that again but it won't be easy or pretty to watch.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Why do you think Matt Ryan is the answer?

Why do you think Atlanta is willing to eat all that dead money, trade away their franchise QB, AND not receive even a single first rounder in compensation?

Why do you think the best way to build our franchise is to tie ourselves to that player and contract?

Why do you think drafting a QB, sitting him on the bench, and "grooming" him is a good strategy?

It seems we'd be much, much more likely to build a championship contender riding Baker and his rookie salary (and ability that isn't too different from Matt Ryan's) and seeing where he improves to. Then, if he's not the guy, drafting another rookie QB and starting him at that rookie salary, giving us the competitive advantage of being able to spend on the rest of our roster.

Surround a good, young QB with a talented roster, and great coaching, and you have a recipe for success. Throw all that away because you're impatient and want a QB that once received an MVP award, and you might never get the chance to win it all.

Matt Ryan: The new hill @Los216 is willing to die on (Who wants to make an image of Matt Ryan standing atop the dead bodies of Andrew Wiggins, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, and every other Los fetish over the past few years?)

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

@Out of the Rafters at the Q

Do you want to share with the rest of the class what you think is so funny?

*points up*

Also, you knew exactly what everyone was going to find funny, ridiculous, absurd, and frustrating as soon as you hit post.

Anyways, I'm gonna dip out of this thread. I have no interest in getting sucked back down into debating your newest obsessive re-tread of a player just because he has a recognizable name. The rest of the board can deal with it this week.

 

[daddywags]

The two big concerns I had with Mayfield before his draft were his size and the way he feeds so much on positive emotion. I was concerned about how he would handle himself when the inevitable personal failures come along. There's nothing he can do about his size, but I think we're going to find out whether he can respond to self-caused difficulties or not over the next 10 games.

 

[Los216]

Why do you think Matt Ryan is the answer?

Answer to what? I think he's a Franchise QB and a guy who can make a deep playoff run with us.

Why do you think Atlanta is willing to eat all that dead money, trade away their franchise QB, AND not receive even a single first rounder in compensation?

If Atlanta trades Matt Ryan after June 1st next year it's only $26M in dead money for them. Again that's not insane especially when you consider that they're probably about to blow it all up and trade Julio and make other moves.

As for the draft picks, Matt Ryan is an older QB on a huge contract and ATL is for sure drafting a QB. They aren't exactly in a position to demand a 1st for Ryan. They might want one but they probably won't get that much value for him due to his age.

Why do you think the best way to build our franchise is to tie ourselves to that player and contract?

I didn't say this was the best way to build our Franchise. It's just one option that will be available in an offseason that may not have a ton of options. Also we would not be tied to Matt Ryan for more than 2 seasons. We'll be out of his contract by then.

Why do you think drafting a QB, sitting him on the bench, and "grooming" him is a good strategy?

First of all let me be clear and say that it's not the only strategy. Now for the offensive system and the scheme that Stefanski is building here, I do believe that having a QB develop in this system for a year or two isn't such a bad idea. Remember when the 49ers traded for Jimmy G they didn't play him right away. He sat for a few weeks and even still there was some time before he got really comfortable in this system. I think Stefanski and Berry should always keep a developmental QB on the roster though regardless.

It seems we'd be much, much more likely to build a championship contender riding Baker and his rookie salary (and ability that isn't too different from Matt Ryan's) and seeing where he improves to. Then, if he's not the guy, drafting another rookie QB and starting him at that rookie salary, giving us the competitive advantage of being able to spend on the rest of our roster.

Surround a good, young QB with a talented roster, and great coaching, and you have a recipe for success. Throw all that away because you're impatient and want a QB that once received an MVP award, and you might never get the chance to win it all.

It doesn't matter how good the roster is around Baker if he's not good now does it? Obviously having a good QB on a rookie deal is what you want. It gives you maximum flexibility. The risk though is you can have that QB on that rookie deal and he can still not be good. Baker is on his rookie deal but he's not good enough to not consider another option at QB and that outweighs him being on his rookie deal.

I don't think we're throwing anything away. You can still draft a QB is you traded for a dude like Matt Ryan. And you'd only be paying Matt Ryan slightly more than what you would be paying Baker but only for two years. This isn't mortgaging the future here.

Matt Ryan: The new hill @Los216 is willing to die on (Who wants to make an image of Matt Ryan standing atop the dead bodies of Andrew Wiggins, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, and every other Los fetish over the past few years?)

This is not even me dying on a hill. I'm saying what it would look like if we went a different route.

Oh and there are bigger hills than Matt Ryan. One of them is the hill with people who still think Baker Mayfield is a Franchise QB. It's not looking good on that hill.

Dwight Howard

That's NBA Champion Dwight Howard to you pal.

 

[Sebastian]

Why do you think Matt Ryan is the answer?

Why do you think Atlanta is willing to eat all that dead money, trade away their franchise QB, AND not receive even a single first rounder in compensation?

Why do you think the best way to build our franchise is to tie ourselves to that player and contract?

Why do you think drafting a QB, sitting him on the bench, and "grooming" him is a good strategy?

It seems we'd be much, much more likely to build a championship contender riding Baker and his rookie salary (and ability that isn't too different from Matt Ryan's) and seeing where he improves to. Then, if he's not the guy, drafting another rookie QB and starting him at that rookie salary, giving us the competitive advantage of being able to spend on the rest of our roster.

Surround a good, young QB with a talented roster, and great coaching, and you have a recipe for success. Throw all that away because you're impatient and want a QB that once received an MVP award, and you might never get the chance to win it all.

Matt Ryan: The new hill @Los216 is willing to die on (Who wants to make an image of Matt Ryan standing atop the dead bodies of Andrew Wiggins, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, and every other Los fetish over the past few years?)

Andrew Wiggins has several bodies up there, and I think another one is still alive.

 

[6.19.2016]

The counter to your counter is, we face those teams for 25% of our schedule *every* year...meaning, we're lucky to finish better than 3rd in our division. That a guy we want to rally around? Brian Homer could do that for us.

Steelers racked up a 4 game losing streak againt the Ratbirds in the early 2010s (including a 35-7 opening day loss in 2011; sound familiar?) and usually lost to Brady...clearly, this means Pig Pen was washed up then, and they should've traded him for the rights to Sam Bradford when the 2010 Milledgeville incident happened, as was rumored to be considered. Right?

(Yes, I know he had already proven himself with 2 SB wins.)

No reason that the pecking order for the division is the same every year; upsets both inside and outside the division happen all the time.

And yes, *this* time we're actually close to Ben retiring, not to mention that Lamar may well be close to "figured out"/turning into RG3 due to injuries adding up.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Answer to what? I think he's a Franchise QB and a guy who can make a deep playoff run with us.

So, even you admit that going your proposed route means we can't win a championship? If so, then I think everyone hopes the organization isn't foolish enough to embrace it.

If Atlanta trades Matt Ryan after June 1st next year it's only $26M in dead money for them. Again that's not insane especially when you consider that they're probably about to blow it all up and trade Julio and make other moves.

That's a really interesting (and bullshit) way of phrasing it. If Atlanta trades Matt Ryan after June 1st (which, they wouldn't) then they would be on the hook for $18 million in 2021, then the additional $26,525,000 that they still owe him for 2022-2023. So, it's actually over 44 million they'd be paying Matt Ryan for the privilege of not playing for them.

That's a steep price. Is it insane? I don't think so, but to eat 44 million dollars like that, there's no way they're going to sell for the value you hypothesize. They'll get a first for him.

As for the draft picks, Matt Ryan is an older QB on a huge contract and ATL is for sure drafting a QB. They aren't exactly in a position to demand a 1st for Ryan. They might want one but they probably won't get that much value for him due to his age.

You underestimate the value of a QB. But I'll also put it this way--either Matt Ryan is good, in which case Atlanta is having no problem getting at least a first for him (likely more than that considering the reasonable base salary the other team would have him for). Or, nobody is willing to pay that price because he's not good. So... why should we latch our wagon to him?

I didn't say this was the best way to build our Franchise.

If your post wasn't an endorsement of the Browns going after Matt Ryan, then what was it? Seriously--if you don't think this is the best choice, then why do you keep bringing it up? Tell us what you actually WANT to see then.

Remember when the 49ers traded for Jimmy G they didn't play him right away. He sat for a few weeks and even still there was some time before he got really comfortable in this system. I think Stefanski and Berry should always keep a developmental QB on the roster though regardless.

Yeah--they traded for a guy who was already in the league, had started multiple games for Bellicheck, and even after all that, Garoppolo still sucks. A QB either can play or he can't, and the only reason to not put him on the field is if doing so is harmful to his development. We have the offensive line, skill position players, and playcalling to make that a non-issue. If we draft "the guy" we aren't gluing his ass to the bench.

It doesn't matter how good the roster is around Baker if he's not good now does it?

Nope--and nobody you're responding to is claiming that Baker will for sure be a good QB.

 

[red.]

 

[ajz20]

Why do you think Matt Ryan is the answer?

Why do you think Atlanta is willing to eat all that dead money, trade away their franchise QB, AND not receive even a single first rounder in compensation?

Why do you think the best way to build our franchise is to tie ourselves to that player and contract?

Why do you think drafting a QB, sitting him on the bench, and "grooming" him is a good strategy?

It seems we'd be much, much more likely to build a championship contender riding Baker and his rookie salary (and ability that isn't too different from Matt Ryan's) and seeing where he improves to. Then, if he's not the guy, drafting another rookie QB and starting him at that rookie salary, giving us the competitive advantage of being able to spend on the rest of our roster.

Surround a good, young QB with a talented roster, and great coaching, and you have a recipe for success. Throw all that away because you're impatient and want a QB that once received an MVP award, and you might never get the chance to win it all.

Matt Ryan: The new hill @Los216 is willing to die on (Who wants to make an image of Matt Ryan standing atop the dead bodies of Andrew Wiggins, Russell Westbrook, Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, and every other Los fetish over the past few years?)

Wow the memories of four days of demanding a trade for Westbrook for a team one year into a rebuild so the team could finish 10th in the conference. That was a classic RCF moment.