Browns 2021 Off-Season Thread

[Malacogary]

There are destinations which make far more sense for DeShaun Watson. He's a hugely talented player but it makes literally no sense fro the Browns to deviate from the Baker Mayfield project at this time. In three seasons Baker, in concert with others, has been hugely instrumental in changing the mentality of this organization. Had the Browns endured a seven or eight win season with the new coaching staff, if Baker had been still been throwing picks in every game, if skill position players had been visibly frustrated every week, then going all in on Watson might seem appealing.

The assets you give up in order to get DSW mean that you'd have to largely forgo remodelling the defense and place him in a similar playing situation to the one he's ostensibly escaping in Houston. Whoever bought this whole idea up was being mischievous.

if Watson went to the 49ers that would immediately turn them into a SuperBowl contender again. The situation in Cleveland is a couple of seasons behind that one at least. I give credit to Baker, Berry and Stefanski for winning a playoff game this season. They overachieved.

 

[AZ_]

Watson and Shanahan would be comical destruction of that division.

 

[prf100]

I’ll take Baker over Watson.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

What makes you assume there is some mythical pattern of “trajectory” all QBs have between years 3-4?

Watson’s trajectory isn’t assumed to be the same as mayfield’s, why would I assume such a thing?

You don't have to assume the same trajectory - Baker's could be the same, better, or worse. If you're trading Baker for Watson, you're assuming it is going to be worse.

So why would you assume such a thing?

 

[The Oi]

I think they’ll go 11-5 again.

Winning 13 or more games is very difficult and teams that win 11 games regularly get to Super Bowls.

Teams will be ready for the Browns in 21 and the wins don’t matter as much as making it in.

They proved they can do that by hanging in there with the Chiefs. @Deezus

 

[The Oi]

Yeah, my bad,

Chubb came from the Osweiler pick.

Where is Brock Osweiler now and can he be picked up and traded back to Houston in a fleecing?

 

[AZ_]

You don't have to assume the same trajectory - Baker's could be the same, better, or worse. If you're trading Baker for Watson, you're assuming it is going to be worse.

So why would you assume such a thing?

If I’m trading Baker for Watson, I’m assuming that Mayfield’s trajectory won’t be that of Watson’s, not that Baker can’t put together future equal or more valuable season than he did in 2020.

Baker has quite a ways to go to catch Watson from a production standpoint. He can get better and still not be the player Watson is, at least within my valuation of the two players. The metrics would back that up as well.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If I’m trading Baker for Watson, I’m assuming that Mayfield’s trajectory won’t be that of Watson’s, not that Baker can’t put together future equal or more valuable season than he did in 2020.

The bolded is kind of my point. We're not trading 2020 Baker for 2020 Watson - we'd be trading 2021 Baker for 2021 Watson, and that requires assumptions no matter what.. So the mere fact that an assumption is involved in saying Baker will have the same trajectory doesn't really counter the point.

I think there must by a pretty convincing argument as to why it Baker's trajectory will be worse than Watson's - as opposed to the same or even better - considering the additional assets we'd have to include to make it happen. And I'm not sure that has been made.

 

[AZ_]

The bolded is kind of my point. We're not trading 2020 Baker for 2020 Watson - we'd be trading 2021 Baker for 2021 Watson, and that requires assumptions no matter what.. So the mere fact that an assumption is involved in saying Baker will have the same trajectory doesn't really counter the point.

I think there must by a pretty convincing argument as to why it Baker's trajectory will be worse than Watson's - as opposed to the same or even better - considering the additional assets we'd have to include to make it happen. And I'm not sure that has been made.

I’ve given my “additional assets” which I think make the deal worth it from the Browns perspective (26 overall).

That’s my market value to make such an endeavor work based on how I view both players future prospects.

Isn’t that the whole point of the discussion with regards to valuation?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I’ve given my “additional assets” which I think make the deal worth it from the Browns perspective (26 overall).

That’s my market value to make such an endeavor work based on how I view both players future prospects.

Isn’t that the whole point of the discussion with regards to valuation?

Sure. Again, I was just responding to your point about Baker's trajectory ("why would you assume such a thing?") by pointing out that logic goes equally both ways.

 

[AZ_]

Sure. Again, I was just responding to your point about Baker's trajectory ("why would you assume such a thing?") by pointing out that logic goes equally both ways.

Were in agreement, there is no guaranteed trajectory Y3 to Y4, in any direction.

Watson is just more established, and does Mayfield’s ceiling overlap with Watson’s Y3 or Y4?

Those are the questions you’d have to feel super confident in deciding before you actually make the move.

For me, Watson is the third best QB in this league at present, and I don’t think Mayfield (absent the running game and protection he has) even comes all that close to such a level.

 

[Surge]

Were in agreement, there is no guaranteed trajectory Y3 to Y4, in any direction.

Watson is just more established, and does Mayfield’s ceiling overlap with Watson’s Y3 or Y4?

Those are the questions you’d have to feel super confident in deciding before you actually make the move.

For me, Watson is the third best QB in this league at present, and I don’t think Mayfield (absent the running game and protection he has) even comes all that close to such a level.

So if Houston came to GM AZ and offered Watson for Baker, 26, and lets say a 3rd rounder, Would you do it?

And do you think that's the best offer Houston is going to get?

To me both answers are no.

 

[AZ_]

So if Houston came to GM AZ and offered Watson for Baker, 26, and lets say a 3rd rounder, Would you do it?

And do you think that's the best offer Houston is going to get?

To me both answers are no.

Baker, 26th overall and a 2021 3rd round pick for Watson is a deal I’d absolutely do.

I do think Houston could find a better offer.

I’d feel pretty confident heading into 2021, and while 22 ($40M) and 23 ($42M) are large cap numbers his deal actually regresses the cap number in 24 ($34M) and 25 ($32M)

Watson, Chubb, Hunt, Landry, OBJ, all 5 OL under contract.

In 2021, you’re paying $5M more for Watson than Mayfield, which gives you enough money to fill defensive holes while still having second and third round picks, plus getting Delpit and Greedy back.


I’d feel more than confident in that.

 

[TheISHT]

It doesn't matter if Houston finds a better offer.....it has to be a place where Watson wants to play because he has a no-trade clause. It limits his market. I'd argue that Baker and a first is better than what they'll find. There is no guarantee they'll find a QB as good as Baker. They could draft a Rosen-type QB with all 4 of the first-round picks they are going to get.

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Is there a way to thumbs down the trajectory of this thread?