Browns game #6

[Amherstcavsfan]

I call it keeping yourself in the game longer! What's the fucking point of watching the last 2 minutes of the game when the outcome is already decided? I call having to sit through the last last few minutes of a football game where there's zero chance of winning far more "demoralizing" to me, I don't know about you.

Just because it makes the game "harder" to watch, doesn't mean it matters either way.

 

[MD13]

I call it keeping yourself in the game longer! What's the fucking point of watching the last 2 minutes of the game when the outcome is already decided? I call having to sit through the last last few minutes of a football game where there's zero chance of winning far more "demoralizing" to me, I don't know about you.

That's exactly the point of the article:

There is a reason why coaches fail to go for 2 in this situation, and why smart fans also think it’s correct to take the safe points. It’s because they’re focused on keeping their hope alive as long as possible. As my friend Brian Burke once wrote, “coaches do not coach to maximize their team’s chances of winning. My theory is coaches are delaying elimination until the latest point in the game—that is, trying to “stay in the game” for as long as possible.”

By kicking the extra point, you (falsely) believe you’re staying in the game for longer. A missed two point conversion attempt with 8 seconds left means you had hope for 59 minutes and 52 seconds. Missing the two-point conversion earlier kills your hope, knowing that it’s now a two-score game. But the goal of a coach should be to maximize his team’s odds of winning, not to make his team’s players and fans feel warm and fuzzy. Missing the 2-point attempt at any point is going to drastically lower your team’s odds of winning.It’s true that if you score a touchdown to cut the lead to 9, and then miss the 2-point attempt, your odds of winning have decreased significantly. But it’s not the going for 2 early and failing that lowers your odds of winning, it’s simply missing the 2 point conversion that lowers your odds.

If you are going to convert the 2-point attempt, it doesn’t matter all that much whether you go for it early or late. If you’re going to miss it, going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback, precisely because you’re got almost no chance if you miss it late. If you are going to miss your two-point attempt, you’re in much worse shape finding that out with 1 minute left than with 7 minutes left. Knowledge is power, and coaches that pull a McCarthy are playing with a weaker hand. To state that you don’t want to go for 2 down by 9 because if you miss it is no longer a two-score game makes no sense, because if you are going to miss the 2-point conversion an 8-point lead is already a two-score game.

 

[col63onel]

I call it keeping yourself in the game longer! What's the fucking point of watching the last 2 minutes of the game when the outcome is already decided? I call having to sit through the last last few minutes of a football game where there's zero chance of winning far more "demoralizing" to me, I don't know about you.

So you are saying it's more fun to watch, but doesn't make the Browns more likely to win?

The logical extension of that is Hue should make decisions based on whats more fun to watch, not what helps the Browns win more.

 

[shoes22]

That's exactly the point of the article:

There is a reason why coaches fail to go for 2 in this situation, and why smart fans also think it’s correct to take the safe points. It’s because they’re focused on keeping their hope alive as long as possible. As my friend Brian Burke once wrote, “coaches do not coach to maximize their team’s chances of winning. My theory is coaches are delaying elimination until the latest point in the game—that is, trying to “stay in the game” for as long as possible.”

By kicking the extra point, you (falsely) believe you’re staying in the game for longer. A missed two point conversion attempt with 8 seconds left means you had hope for 59 minutes and 52 seconds. Missing the two-point conversion earlier kills your hope, knowing that it’s now a two-score game. But the goal of a coach should be to maximize his team’s odds of winning, not to make his team’s players and fans feel warm and fuzzy. Missing the 2-point attempt at any point is going to drastically lower your team’s odds of winning.It’s true that if you score a touchdown to cut the lead to 9, and then miss the 2-point attempt, your odds of winning have decreased significantly. But it’s not the going for 2 early and failing that lowers your odds of winning, it’s simply missing the 2 point conversion that lowers your odds.

Okay then, so we agree. From the fans perspective it's better to hold out on going for 2 longer so you actually can have a watchable fucking football game.

 

[shoes22]

So you are saying it's more fun to watch, but doesn't make the Browns more likely to win?

The logical extension of that is Hue should make decisions based on whats more fun to watch, not what helps the Browns win more.

Yes, I only care about what's more fun to watch. Going earlier or later with only 2 minutes left makes little difference in the Browns odds of winning, so given that's the case, yes, I'd prioritize what's better to watch.

 

[col63onel]

Okay then, so we agree. From the fans perspective it's better to hold out on going for 2 longer so you actually can have a watchable fucking football game.

So then you agree from a tactical standpoint, it wasn't an error by Jackson?

 

[shoes22]

So then you agree from a tactical standpoint, it wasn't an error by Jackson?

I would still consider it an error because there was no advantage in doing so, even if it wasn't technically an "error". The disadvantage of doing it then outweighed the advantage, IMO.

 

[col63onel]

I would still consider it an error because there was no advantage in doing so, even if it wasn't technically an "error". The disadvantage of doing it then outweighed the advantage, IMO.

What is the disadvantage?

 

[Scholar]

I would still consider it an error because there was no advantage in doing so, even if it wasn't technically an "error". The disadvantage of doing it then outweighed the advantage, IMO.

The advantage is that you already know you failed to convert and have to score on separate drives instead of one final drive. You can then manage the clock and play choices with that in mind.

 

[shoes22]

What is the disadvantage?

The disadvantage was from the fans perspective, or anyone watching it. That's a tangible thing.

As far as actually winning the game, with only 2 minutes left on the clock it doesn't make a difference either way. So given from a tactical standpoint there's no difference, and from a watchability perspective there's only a disadvantage, I'd choose to hold off.

 

[shoes22]

The advantage is that you already know you failed to convert and have to score on separate drives instead of one final drive. You can then manage the clocks and play choices with that in mind.

That's not an advantage with only 2 minutes left.

The odds of scoring twice in 2 minutes when the other team is starting off with the ball is like 5% or less. Let's not act like that helped the Browns in this case.

 

[Chris]

who cares

 

[col63onel]

The disadvantage was from the fans perspective, or anyone watching it. That's a tangible thing.

As far as actually winning the game, with only 2 minutes left on the clock it doesn't make a difference either way. So given from a tactical standpoint there's no difference, and from a watchability perspective there's only a disadvantage, I'd choose to hold off.

Again, that makes it seem like Hue should take in account entertainment value in his decision making. I sincerely hope he doesn't, regardless of the situation.

 

[shoes22]

I'd also argue that going for it earlier and missing "relaxes" the Titans defense a little, because they know even if they give up a TD they'd still win the game.

But whatever, I'm done going on about this. I can't convince you guys that going for two with just 2 minutes left is an utterly pointless decision.

 

[col63onel]

I'd also argue that going for it earlier and missing "relaxes" the Titans defense a little, because they know even if they give up a TD they'd still win the game.

But whatever, I'm done going on about this. I can't convince you guys that going for two with just 2 minutes left is an utterly pointless decision.

I am arguing that it IS pointless. It doesn't matter when you do it.