Browns game #6

[Real Deal]

Team is going nowhere, no need to get worked up. The tank lives on and we need a 0-16 season to solidify it. Fuck this meaningless win we left out there today. Maybe because I watched 5 min of it I wasn't to heavily invested and that's why I care less about Hue's decision.

But it's a free pass this year, next year maybe I'll bitch about it.

 

[brownindian]

That's exactly the point of the article:

There is a reason why coaches fail to go for 2 in this situation, and why smart fans also think it’s correct to take the safe points. It’s because they’re focused on keeping their hope alive as long as possible. As my friend Brian Burke once wrote, “coaches do not coach to maximize their team’s chances of winning. My theory is coaches are delaying elimination until the latest point in the game—that is, trying to “stay in the game” for as long as possible.”

By kicking the extra point, you (falsely) believe you’re staying in the game for longer. A missed two point conversion attempt with 8 seconds left means you had hope for 59 minutes and 52 seconds. Missing the two-point conversion earlier kills your hope, knowing that it’s now a two-score game. But the goal of a coach should be to maximize his team’s odds of winning, not to make his team’s players and fans feel warm and fuzzy. Missing the 2-point attempt at any point is going to drastically lower your team’s odds of winning.It’s true that if you score a touchdown to cut the lead to 9, and then miss the 2-point attempt, your odds of winning have decreased significantly. But it’s not the going for 2 early and failing that lowers your odds of winning, it’s simply missing the 2 point conversion that lowers your odds.

If you are going to convert the 2-point attempt, it doesn’t matter all that much whether you go for it early or late. If you’re going to miss it, going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback, precisely because you’re got almost no chance if you miss it late. If you are going to miss your two-point attempt, you’re in much worse shape finding that out with 1 minute left than with 7 minutes left. Knowledge is power, and coaches that pull a McCarthy are playing with a weaker hand. To state that you don’t want to go for 2 down by 9 because if you miss it is no longer a two-score game makes no sense, because if you are going to miss the 2-point conversion an 8-point lead is already a two-score game.

Here is my issue -

* He says that NFL coaches chose to go for the safe point and focus on keeping their hope alive - how is that a bad thing ?

* He says that his theory is that the coach is delaying the elimination. Again, that can only be confirmed after the game is over, for all you know a lucky break may change the complexion of the game and for that you need to be in the game.

* My personal issue with going for the 2 point conversion early missing and cause it to be a 2 possession game is that, this means that now we need 2 onside kick recovery instead of one. I don't know what the statistics are but ignorant me feels that it is much harder to successfully recover 2 onside kicks than to score the 2 point conversion. So I feel like we made it harder on ourselves than it already was.

I do acknowledge that the end result ultimately falls on us needing to score the 2 point conversion.

 

[MikeOC33]

Regarding the last few minutes of the game, I was eating a rib-eye steak with side of mushrooms and onions and a refreshing adult beverage.
So as for Hue's decision to go for 2 or not.... my steak was really good. I like going out to eat for steak, but it can't touch home grilled exactly the way you like to fix it. Perfect.

 

[The Oi]

Based on very, very early returns...did this regime miss on ANY picks in their first draft?

 

[FiveThous]

Based on very, very early returns...did this regime miss on ANY picks in their first draft?

It certainly seems like they've nailed them about 40% of the way though the regular season.

 

[Surge]

Based on very, very early returns...did this regime miss on ANY picks in their first draft?

The fact you are even asking this means they are doing 100% better than the last several front offices.

 

[TheISHT]

The fact you are even asking this means they are doing 100% better than the last several front offices.

Yeah, No Cam Irvings, Johnny Football, or Justin Gilberts in any rounds. A+ thus far.

Coleman and Nassib look like playmakers.

Ogbah, Schobert, Cody, Kindred, Louis look like they have a chance.

DeValve, Shon, Payton, Drango, Higgins, Caldwell, and Scooby are questions marks in my eyes. I felt like DeValve was the only major reach that jumped out at me that hasn't panned out, Kessler too, but at the worst I think he'll make a solid backup.

 

[FiveThous]

I'm honestly surprised that Higgins hasn't got more burn especially with all the injuries. I really like Louis as he can flat out fly, will he drop a couple passes sure, but his speed completely changes how you have to play your safeties.

 

[Lee]

Yeah, No Cam Irvings, Johnny Football, or Justin Gilberts in any rounds. A+ thus far.

Coleman and Nassib look like playmakers.

Ogbah, Schobert, Cody, Kindred, Louis look like they have a chance.

DeValve, Shon, Payton, Drango, Higgins, Caldwell, and Scooby are questions marks in my eyes. I felt like DeValve was the only major reach that jumped out at me that hasn't panned out, Kessler too, but at the worst I think he'll make a solid backup.

The fact Drango cant get on the field leans me toward a miss. The fact that Scooby was already cut was a miss. DeValve looks like a metrics miss too.

That said none of these were high picks, all were worth taking a shot on and is why you trade back and pick up extra picks. Love the draft so far, wish Kessler had more arm strength or he would be considered a viable starter going forward, even so, he is a solid backup and a late 3rd qb as a solid backup I will take.

 

[Surge]

The fact Drango cant get on the field leans me toward a miss. The fact that Scooby was already cut was a miss. DeValve looks like a metrics miss too.

That said none of these were high picks, all were worth taking a shot on and is why you trade back and pick up extra picks. Love the draft so far, wish Kessler had more arm strength or he would be considered a viable starter going forward, even so, he is a solid backup and a late 3rd qb as a solid backup I will take.

Would be nice if Kessler turned out to be a Osweiler, Cassel, Flynn type guy we could trade for good value after we get a franchise guy.

Or he could just be a nice backup his whole career. But if he's flashing potential, he's going to want a starring shot somewhere.

(All this assuming a backup qb is what he is. Would be great if he turned out to be our Brady. Lol)

 

[TheISHT]

The fact Drango cant get on the field leans me toward a miss. The fact that Scooby was already cut was a miss. DeValve looks like a metrics miss too.

That said none of these were high picks, all were worth taking a shot on and is why you trade back and pick up extra picks. Love the draft so far, wish Kessler had more arm strength or he would be considered a viable starter going forward, even so, he is a solid backup and a late 3rd qb as a solid backup I will take.

Drango isnt an Irving sized miss though. Hoping Coleman still recovering from injury, Scooby was a 7th rounder and is on our practice squad (was praised by most evaluators for spot he was drafted in).

 

[Lee]

Drango isnt an Irving sized miss though. Hoping Coleman still recovering from injury, Scooby was a 7th rounder and is on our practice squad (was praised by most evaluators for spot he was drafted in).

5th rounder, not really even a big deal. Maybe he comes around, just seems suspicious he can get playing time as bad as we have been at RT>