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Cleveland Browns 2019 Season

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So QB is in a tier by themselves, but left tackle, primary edge, #1 corner is the 2nd tier, no way he lets Myles walk, basically as top tier as you get. I think he would trade Scho in a heartbeat for a good left tackle that wants a big contract before he pays an inside linebacker that big contract (tier 4)

Its not about not being his guy, its just about it not being his position to spend money on.

According to the pyramid, No. 2 cornerback, strong safety, 5 tech, second edge rusher and inside linebacker are all in the same tier. So let's run down the list of guys acquired by Dorsey himself, and see what he has been willing to pay/do to acquire those guys:

No. 2 corner T.J. Carrie, signed by Dorsey to a 4 year/$31 million.

Strong safety Morgan Burnett: 3 year 14.75 million

5 tech Sheldon Richardson: 3 years, 39 million

Second end rusher Olivier Vernon: 2 years, 30 million

Morgan Burnett is clearly on the downslope of his career, and relatively speaking, is outproduced by the other guys listed.

I'm not arguing that Dorsey is going to be willing to pay Tier 4 Schobert $10-15M/year. I'm arguing that a GM willing to pay some Tier 4 players $10-15M/year is not going to unnecessarily create a gaping hole in a Tier 4 position before he actually needs to do so.
 
While everyone is going back and forth about the possible trade of Schobert, keep in mind Kirksey is a middle linebacker with decent cover skills. The impetus could be to move Kirksey to his more natural position to maximize his value while targeting a more natural strong side linebacker to replace Kirksey.

Again, the Browns may also stand pat with what appears to be a solid group. That would be fine with me as well.
 
While everyone is going back and forth about the possible trade of Schobert, keep in mind Kirksey is a middle linebacker with decent cover skills. The impetus could be to move Kirksey to his more natural position to maximize his value while targeting a more natural strong side linebacker to replace Kirksey.

Such as...?

I'm hung up on this Schobert things for two related reasons -- we didn't sign a starting-quality LB in free agency, and we don't have a pick in the first 45 so that we can rely on adding a stud LB capable of starting as a rookie. Moving Schobert or anyone else for value is fine if you have a replacement ready. But there aren't any starting quality MLB's or SSLB's remaining in free agency. We seemingly would be creating a significant hole in our defense without having any way of filling it.

Now maybe the plan is to wait for the cuts that come after the draft. The problem is that those cuts generally consist of two kinds of players 1) borderline guys who are expected to lose their roster spot to a draftee, or 2) overpaid but still competent veterans whose job can be done more cheaply by a draftee. Obviously, 1) isn't good enough to start if we're making a serious run, and there's no point in 2) if the goal in getting rid of Schobert is to avoid spending money next year.
 
Such as...?

I'm hung up on this Schobert things for two related reasons -- we didn't sign a starting-quality LB in free agency, and we don't have a pick in the first 45 so that we can rely on adding a stud LB capable of starting as a rookie. Moving Schobert or anyone else for value is fine if you have a replacement ready. But there aren't any starting quality MLB's or SSLB's remaining in free agency. We seemingly would be creating a significant hole in our defense without having any way of filling it.

Now maybe the plan is to wait for the cuts that come after the draft. The problem is that those cuts generally consist of two kinds of players 1) borderline guys who are expected to lose their roster spot to a draftee, or 2) overpaid but still competent veterans whose job can be done more cheaply by a draftee. Obviously, 1) isn't good enough to start if we're making a serious run, and there's no point in 2) if the goal in getting rid of Schobert is to avoid spending money next year.

Let's take the necessary step of looking at what a middle linebacker and strong side backer are responsible for doing in the 4/3 and nickel packages.

Jaime Collins is, on paper, what you look for in a strong side backer and nickel backer. He has the length and coverage instincts to cover a tight end, fights through blockers in the run game, and can blitz when the play dictates it. His problem was playing within the scheme and holding off on freelancing.

With Schobert and Kirksey, they have two shorter linebackers who are better in zone than man coverage. Neither is particularly effective blitzing. While Avery is an intriguing young player against the run and blitzing, he is also lacking ideal length.

Scheme-wise, the Browns may have targeted an outside linebacker who has Jaime Collins type gifts, but upside be less of a liability free lancing. Will the Browns jump on a player like that using Schobert in a trade up? Who knows... that's probably why the Browns haven't been rumored to definitely have a trade in place. They need to see who falls. Sweat and his irregular heartbeat? Winovich and his raw coverage skills? Don't know.

But my point is that this might not just be about salary. Collins leaves a talent gap in a nine tech type player.
 
Kirksey on the books for 20 mill over the next 2 years after this one with dead cap of 2.4 mill.

I think Kirksey could be a casualty also, but will be only 27...he tackles allot, but not really a behind the LOS type LB.

Its Kirksey or Schobert for sure, maybe both.
 
I think we're trying to shop Schobert, just in case his value externally is far higher than how we value him internally.

I really think the best attribute he brings is his leadership/intelligence. I think he's overrated as a linebacker, and someone who misses that many tackles is always replaceable.

Traditional linebacker stats seem to correlate with how often you're on the field and how your team uses you. They're not necessarily indicative of the impact you have for your team. I think Schobert's traditional stats far exceed his level of play.
 
I think we're trying to shop Schobert, just in case his value externally is far higher than how we value him internally.

I really think the best attribute he brings is his leadership/intelligence. I think he's overrated as a linebacker, and someone who misses that many tackles is always replaceable.

Traditional linebacker stats seem to correlate with how often you're on the field and how your team uses you. They're not necessarily indicative of the impact you have for your team. I think Schobert's traditional stats far exceed his level of play.

I actually agree, both him and Kirksey.
 
Scheme-wize, the Browns may have targeted an outside linebacker who has Jaime Collins type gifts, but upside be less of a liability free lancing. Will the Browns jump on a player like that using Schobert in a trade up? Who knows... that's probably why the Browns haven't been rumored to definitely have a trade in place. They need to see who falls. Sweat and his irregular heartbeat? Winovich and his raw coverage skills? Don't know.

I don't see any players "like that" in the draft. Certainly, some who can perhaps develop into that, but nobody whom Dorsey will say "yeah, I don't need either of these starters I already have because of this guy I'm going to draft." Just don't see it.

I suspect that the rumor -- assuming it was there at all -- was garbled in translation. Sure, the Browns may be looking for someone to eventually replace either Schobert or Kirksey after this season. So you draft the guy, develop him, and then he replaces one or the other for next year. That makes sense. Instead, someone hears "the Browns are looking at someone who may be able to replace Schobert or Kirksey", and makes the leap that the Browns will be looking to deal one of them this season. Then they say that publicly, and we're off to the races.

It's ditching proven guys for unproven rookies during a year where you've clearly made some "win now" moves that makes me skeptical. If Dorsey really was looking to move on from one or both of them this season, he'd have made a move to do so during free agency, or during the trade flurries.
 
I think we're trying to shop Schobert, just in case his value externally is far higher than how we value him internally.

I really think the best attribute he brings is his leadership/intelligence. I think he's overrated as a linebacker, and someone who misses that many tackles is always replaceable.

Traditional linebacker stats seem to correlate with how often you're on the field and how your team uses you. They're not necessarily indicative of the impact you have for your team. I think Schobert's traditional stats far exceed his level of play.
Not to undersell the role, but the linebacker position in the NFL has basically become a shell of its former self. It's at the point where it's entirely unjustified to pay a linebacker significant cap dollars if he's not a pass-rusher or elite middle linebacker who changes the entire game.

The money that CJ Mosely just received makes me want to vomit as it's against everything I believe in today's game.

I'm at a point where you show me a 6'1 physical college safety, and I'm moving him to NFL linebacker. Especially with nickel packages on the field 80%-85% of the time. That's basically what Devin Bush was early in college, except 5'11. Now he's going in the Top 20 as a 5'11, 230 lb linebacker who can run in that 4.4-4.5 range.
 
Not to undersell the role, but the linebacker position in the NFL has basically become a shell of its former self. It's at the point where it's entirely unjustified to pay a linebacker significant cap dollars if he's not a pass-rusher or elite middle linebacker who changes the entire game.

The money that CJ Mosely just received makes me want to vomit as it's against everything I believe in today's game.

I'm at a point where you show me a 6'1 physical college safety, and I'm moving him to NFL linebacker. Especially with nickel packages on the field 80%-85% of the time. That's basically what Devin Bush was early in college, except 5'11. Now he's going in the Top 20 as a 5'11, 230 lb linebacker who can run in that 4.4-4.5 range.

I think it's just the NFL changing, and the rules of football encouraging both the offense and defense to become more efficient as a passing league. Would Steve Atwater or John Lynch sill be useful players in the modern NFL? I believe so, but they would play strongside or nickel linebacker rather than safety. Strong safeties have more man to man coverage responsibility than they once did. An outside backer who blitzes like Lawrence Taylor while still stopping the run is in even more demand.
 
Not to undersell the role, but the linebacker position in the NFL has basically become a shell of its former self. It's at the point where it's entirely unjustified to pay a linebacker significant cap dollars if he's not a pass-rusher or elite middle linebacker who changes the entire game.

The money that CJ Mosely just received makes me want to vomit as it's against everything I believe in today's game.

I'm at a point where you show me a 6'1 physical college safety, and I'm moving him to NFL linebacker. Especially with nickel packages on the field 80%-85% of the time. That's basically what Devin Bush was early in college, except 5'11. Now he's going in the Top 20 as a 5'11, 230 lb linebacker who can run in that 4.4-4.5 range.
Yep, I don't think the Browns should actively be trying to trade Schobert, but I find it hard to justify giving a middle linebacker ~$14 million/year. If you can get a really good player and a nice draft pick, then I think you have to consider it, but I find that unlikely, at least right now.

FWIW, I am fully of the belief that there was a potential big trade a few weeks ago that the Browns would've entered as a third team, traded Schobert, and received a handsome payment. I think they'll listen to offers, and maybe even leaked this themselves, but I highly doubt their actively shopping Joe.
 
Whoa, where did 14 million a year come from? Not even close to Schobert's value.
 
Whoa, where I'd 14 million a year come from? Not even close to Schobert's value.
Isn't that what Mosley is getting? I could have been totally off, sorry. I don't think anyone was inferring that's Schobert's value.
 
My concern is what we saw against KC - a team we may very well see in the playoffs this year. KC spent that entire game throwing short routes, then gashing us for major YAC. Schobert was out, and we were helpless defensively.

The Browns have invested a ton of money/draft assets in the defensive line and defensive backfield, and teams will respond to that by throwing underneath to mitigate our pash rush and deeper coverage. We obviously can't put the same level of money in the linebackers, but we must have guys back there who are intelligent, and decent in coverage or all that money spent to pressure the QB is going to be wasted because teams will do what KC did. Schobert isn't a sack machine, so perhaps that will help keep his price down, and is only good not great against the run. But he's absolutely one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, which is what the Browns in particular really need from that position to close the biggest potential hole in our defense.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...-nfls-top-coverage-linebacker-through-week-10

I think this is of sufficient important that the Browns will likely be targetting one of the better coverage linebackers in the draft -- perhaps someone like Pratt - a converted safety -- in the third round.
 
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