Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Derek]

We can agree to disagree I guess, but "wildly inconsistent" isn't accurate. Pull the 122 AB from the 2020 season and you have a pretty consistent player regardless if you like the numbers or not. You're looking at slightly better numbers than I gave you. You're talking about a 30 HR/30 2B hitter and an OFer that will be towards the top of the league in assists. He did have more errors in Fenway's RF than any other time in his career, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Fenway's RF is notoriously tricky.

Fangraphs isn't any more reliable than BR when it comes to WAR.

In 5 seasons accumulating over 2000 AB, Amed has an OPS+ over 100(101) once. I guess it's what you value and I'll take Renfroe's offensive profile everyday of the week over Amed's and it's not even close. To each his own I guess.

I guess the disconnect is that I don’t think just being a 30/30 2B/HR guy is that valuable if he’s bringing nothing else to the table (he’s also only cracked 30 doubles once).

He’s rated out as well below average in the field every year but one.

I’m just not that interested in guys who don’t walk, make contact at a high rate, or defend at a high-level. He’s a one trick pony.

 

[CDAV45]

I guess the disconnect is that I don’t think just being a 30/30 2B/HR guy is that valuable if he’s bringing nothing else to the table (he’s also only cracked 30 doubles once).

He’s rated out as well below average in the field every year but one.

I’m just not that interested in guys who don’t walk, make contact at a high rate, or defend at a high-level. He’s a one trick pony.

...and he's never had a full season's worth of AB either. You have to consider the context when looking at numbers. I don't think you're doing that here.

You mean to tell me you'd rather have Amed Rosario's bat in the lineup than Hunter Renfroe's? In 521 AB Renfroe accumulated 261 total bases. In 550 AB Rosario accumulated 225 bases. So in 29 fewer AB Renfroe accumulated 36 more bases. Yeah, you can have Rosario because not only is Renfroe accumulating more bases he's driving in more runs giving the opportunities are the same.

Again, I'm not trying to sell Renfroe as some kind of superstar because he is not.

 

[sportscoach]

@CATS44

I am agreeing with @MadThinker88 Palacios isn't as bad at 2B as you are claiming...

We can agree to disagree I guess, but "wildly inconsistent" isn't accurate. Pull the 122 AB from the 2020 season and you have a pretty consistent player regardless if you like the numbers or not. You're looking at slightly better numbers than I gave you. You're talking about a 30 HR/30 2B hitter and an OFer that will be towards the top of the league in assists. He did have more errors in Fenway's RF than any other time in his career, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Fenway's RF is notoriously tricky.

Fangraphs isn't any more reliable than BR when it comes to WAR.

In 5 seasons accumulating over 2000 AB, Amed has an OPS+ over 100(101) once. I guess it's what you value and I'll take Renfroe's offensive profile everyday of the week over Amed's and it's not even close. To each his own I guess.

Now when it comes to Renfroe... He has a way lower LD rate than you would like from a power hitter by the numbers. He will get you 50-60 extra base hits a season, but his walk rate is lower than some of us would like plus he has shown he shouldn't play outside of RF...

Now do you forget that Amed just turned 26? (Renfroe didn't get a call-up until age 24) Amed likely was up a bit too early in New York and Amed I think is honestly so-so... he has a good contact rate, but I don't like his BB and SO rates for a contact/speed guy. I wish we had a Brantley around in a sense cause I'd like him to learn more patience at the plate.

Both guys are completely different style of hitters, one is a 9 hole guy (not a bad thing, some coaches like a speed/contact guy at the end of a lineup) and another is that borderline 6 hole that either gets a HR or nothing worth noting...

 

[CDAV45]

@CATS44

I am agreeing with @MadThinker88 Palacios isn't as bad at 2B as you are claiming...




Now when it comes to Renfroe... He has a way lower LD rate than you would like from a power hitter by the numbers. He will get you 50-60 extra base hits a season, but his walk rate is lower than some of us would like plus he has shown he shouldn't play outside of RF...

Now do you forget that Amed just turned 26? (Renfroe didn't get a call-up until age 24) Amed likely was up a bit too early in New York and Amed I think is honestly so-so... he has a good contact rate, but I don't like his BB and SO rates for a contact/speed guy. I wish we had a Brantley around in a sense cause I'd like him to learn more patience at the plate.

Both guys are completely different style of hitters, one is a 9 hole guy (not a bad thing, some coaches like a speed/contact guy at the end of a lineup) and another is that borderline 6 hole that either gets a HR or nothing worth noting...

I don't care that Amed is 26 and Renfroe 29 soon to be 30. You answered that question when you said they are different style of hitters. Age isn't going to change that. Although I suspect as hitters mature there is an associated increase in their plate discipline.

Don't we all wish we had a few more "Brantleys" around, but I've tried to explain to you that he is rare bird. Neither of these guys are that and there isn't anyone in FA that I can think of that fits the description either. There aren't enough Brantleys in the league to field 1 damn team.

"A HR or nothing worth noting" you say? So averaging 30 2B over 600 AB isn't "worth noting". This isn't just a Hunter Renfroe argument. It's a type of hitter conversation. Right now the Guardians don't have guys that can drive in runs outside of JRam and Reyes.

Edited to say that I don't like Renfroe's OBP either, but when you can impact a baseball like that there is a place for you. Especially on the Guardians' roster right now.

 

[Derek]

Rosario and Renfroe are both meh players. Renfroe has more power, but his on-base skills are awful. They’re both right about at league-average in terms of producing runs.

This will be my last post about either.

 

[sportscoach]

I don't care that Amed is 26 and Renfroe 29 soon to be 30. You answered that question when you said they are different style of hitters. Age isn't going to change that. Although I suspect as hitters mature there is an associated increase in their plate discipline.

Don't we all wish we had a few more "Brantleys" around, but I've tried to explain to you that he is rare bird. Neither of these guys are that and there isn't anyone in FA that I can think of that fits the description either. There aren't enough Brantleys in the league to field 1 damn team.

"A HR or nothing worth noting" you say? So averaging 30 2B over 600 AB isn't "worth noting". This isn't just a Hunter Renfroe argument. It's a type of hitter conversation. Right now the Guardians don't have guys that can drive in runs outside of JRam and Reyes.

Edited to say that I don't like Renfroe's OBP either, but when you can impact a baseball like that there is a place for you. Especially on the Guardians' roster right now.

Age does matter somewhat in your argument, since Amed came up too early while Renfroe came up at a normal time for a player honestly so some of the numbers that way are skewed...

I am agreeing with @Derek, they are both meh... Renfroe literally is a power hit or nothing while Amed is a singles/doubles guy or nothing. If we didn't lack MLB proven hitters, I dont think Amed would be on the roster in 22, since his contract price is over his production price. I prefer a more reliable hitter which in my mind Amed is, but neither guy is going to swing the needle for me in a move...

 

[CDAV45]

Age does matter somewhat in your argument, since Amed came up too early while Renfroe came up at a normal time for a player honestly so some of the numbers that way are skewed...

I am agreeing with @Derek, they are both meh... Renfroe literally is a power hit or nothing while Amed is a singles/doubles guy or nothing. If we didn't lack MLB proven hitters, I dont think Amed would be on the roster in 22, since his contract price is over his production price. I prefer a more reliable hitter which in my mind Amed is, but neither guy is going to swing the needle for me in a move...

Does it matter? Which is better for development, playing college ball or joining the professional ranks right out of HS?

My argument isn't that both guys are so so. I literally said that at the beginning of this conversation. My argument is that a hitter like Renfroe is more needed than one like Amed in Cleveland because I think that there are a couple of guys on the roster capable of being "meh" like Amed. We don't have any that can hit 30 HR and 30 2B. That's all I'm trying to say and I should have said it like that earlier.

I went back and quoted what I said you wouldn't have to look yourself. "I'm uncertain how you can say Renfroe "isn't very good" and then go on to say "we're underestimating the value of Amed". You're just wrong regarding your evaluation of those 2. I think their values are relatively close and both are 2-3 WAR players. In fact, Renfroe has consistently been that."

 

[sportscoach]

Does it matter? Which is better for development, playing college ball or joining the professional ranks right out of HS?

My argument isn't that both guys are so so. I literally said that at the beginning of this conversation. My argument is that a hitter like Renfroe is more needed than one like Amed in Cleveland because I think that there are a couple of guys on the roster capable of being "meh" like Amed. We don't have any that can hit 30 HR and 30 2B. That's all I'm trying to say and I should have said it like that earlier.

I went back and quoted what I said you wouldn't have to look yourself. "I'm uncertain how you can say Renfroe "isn't very good" and then go on to say "we're underestimating the value of Amed". You're just wrong regarding your evaluation of those 2. I think their values are relatively close and both are 2-3 WAR players. In fact, Renfroe has consistently been that."

Age sometimes does matter... if a player is up to early, he will put up worse stats than a player who came up when they were more polished. Renfroe came up more polished/more MLB ready than Amed did...

Honestly we just need guys who can actually hit... Amed is undervalued by you since he isn't a power guy. You do rate power as more important than contact rate... if you say you don't think I feel like you are lying to yourself in a way. Both guys are going to give you the same amount of WAR at the end of the day by doing things different ways. I mean I trust Amed more when it comes to actually getting a hit, but Renfroe will produce more runs cause of the power he has, but we still need more than just one more addition in 22. Plus Renfroe is likely to be paid more than his production at the end of the day just like I said with Amed...

This is honestly an argument over the style of hitters we like rather than actual on the field production...

 

[CATS44]

Geesh.

Still pining for Hunter Renfroe after all these years.

I'm his career his wRC+ is 106. Reyes is 119. Both are paid to hit....and its no contest.

As for Renfroe vs Amed. In the same number of PAs, Amed has put up 7.4 fWAR to Renfroes 5.8. Per 600 PAs, its 2.2 to 1.6. In spite of the thought that Amed is bad in the field and Renfro is good, Aned has had positive dWAR every year, while Renfroe has been negative in every year except one.

Going by fWAR per 600 PAs, Renfroe has been worth 1.6. Mercado has been worth 1.5. Zimmer has been worth 1.8.

Sorry, but Renfroe isn't an improvement over what we have.

*********

The short term OF we passed on was Calhoun, who signed for $5.2 mil with an option.

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The scouting reports on Palacios as a 2B are not kind. One such from fangraphs...He can't throw the ball to first base from the left side and his arm utility may move him off the dirt entirely.

In 106 career games at second, he's made 12 errors. Folks used to go bonkers when Kip made 12 in a full season at 2B....which he only did twice.

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Does anybody read what they type?

Some are OK with trading Plesac and Civale, because the guys we have in Columbus can instantly replace them.

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In a little more than half a season, Gimenez has been worth 1.6 fWAR. Over 600 PAs, that comes to 2.8 fWAR...and we should be jumping for joy. Instead, many are insisting that one of the prospects, usually Arias, is a sure fire instant improvement.

In his first 600 PAs, Kip was worth 3 fWAR. Droobs was worth 2.1. In 900 PAs Phillips was worth .3. In his first 700 Omar was worth 1.6. In his first 600, JRam was worth 1.7. Only Lindor seriously outperformed Gimenez when he arrived.

Thats a pretty fair list of young MIFs.

********

We have a solid core in place, all of which, excepting JRam and Hedges, are 26 or younger. We are gonna add to it, not subtract.

Plesac, Civale, Amed, and Gimenez are all part of it.

 

[Gson]

Age matters.. in a number of spots during the development, playing and ending of a players career..

The entry time..for Guardian prospect need to be delayed as long as possible and as long as their development / training can continue to bear fruit. Any earlier and the Guardians lose peak performance during the prime years of a players career.. Later isn't nearly as bad as being early. It just means the Guardians can hold onto their own prospects turned players into their late twenties/early thirties..

Of the five tools a position player has been graded on (historical system).. power is the one that usually develops last.. I.O.W., in three years when Amed is the same age as Renfroe is now (give or take), there is a chance they are the same guy with respect to production..

So.. age matters.. but, for the Guardians, their starting age for their prospects being later is almost always to their advantage..

 

[CDAV45]

Age sometimes does matter... if a player is up to early, he will put up worse stats than a player who came up when they were more polished. Renfroe came up more polished/more MLB ready than Amed did...

Honestly we just need guys who can actually hit... Amed is undervalued by you since he isn't a power guy. You do rate power as more important than contact rate... if you say you don't think I feel like you are lying to yourself in a way. Both guys are going to give you the same amount of WAR at the end of the day by doing things different ways. I mean I trust Amed more when it comes to actually getting a hit, but Renfroe will produce more runs cause of the power he has, but we still need more than just one more addition in 22. Plus Renfroe is likely to be paid more than his production at the end of the day just like I said with Amed...

This is honestly an argument over the style of hitters we like rather than actual on the field production...

Sure age matters sometimes, and so does where a player develops Coach. There's all kinds of things that matter so while you might think that Renfroe was more "polished" that doesn't necessarily make it so. There's also something to be said about adjustment time and being exposed earlier too, but again, that doesn't make it so in this case. That's one of the beautiful things about baseball I guess. In the age of excess information and fantasy league stats, being able to crush a baseball still has some value regardless of all the peripherals.

I value production and total bases paints a good picture when comparing like number of AB. I like OBP as much as the next guy too, but that isn't a strong suit of either of these players now is it? They're different players and both are limited. I just happen to think that Amed can be replaced, but we have no corner OFer like Renfroe at this time. I feel like I'm repeating myself, and where did I "undervalue" Amed?

@CATS if you can't keep up with the conversation the fuck off. Nobody is pining over anything. Coach, Derek, and I are having a pleasant conversation that doesn't need or require your smart ass comments that are aimed at criticizing something that isn't even being said.

Renfroe is a Brewer and everyone here is cool with that, but to say that he isn't better than what we have in the corner OF is nothing short of stupid. I'm sure I'll get chastised for talking to you like this, but you have it coming and I'll take my punishment.

 

[sportscoach]

@CDAV45

Down boy! Lol We really need the lockout to end don't we?

@CATS44

Tell me what offensive production have we gotten from our OF? Renfroe has an average production and is based off of HRs/Power... I wouldn't personally have a qualm if we got him, just not who I would normally choose though. Renfroe is still in his prime and we know what we will get.. I believe Amed going forward will end up being the better player if he works on his OBP%...

Overall we do need increased OF production and my target would be someone better than Renfroe, but we also know exactly what we would get from Renfroe as well, plus I don't think he is as bad in RF as people think. On paper he would upgrade us, but I wouldn't want him more than a one year stop gap anyways...

 

[CDAV45]

@CDAV45

Down boy! Lol We really need the lockout to end don't we?

@CATS44

Tell me what offensive production have we gotten from our OF? Renfroe has an average production and is based off of HRs/Power... I wouldn't personally have a qualm if we got him, just not who I would normally choose though. Renfroe is still in his prime and we know what we will get.. I believe Amed going forward will end up being the better player if he works on his OBP%...

Overall we do need increased OF production and my target would be someone better than Renfroe, but we also know exactly what we would get from Renfroe as well, plus I don't think he is as bad in RF as people think. On paper he would upgrade us, but I wouldn't want him more than a one year stop gap anyways...

Well that was a ridiculous statement and deserving of some ill verbiage.

What you said about Renfroe is pretty spot on with how I see it. It isn't just about Renfroe though, he's just an example. A guy that can hit 30 HR and 30 2B while playing adequate defense would help this team in its current state even with a shitty OBP. If he gets 600 AB over the course of a season you can expect 3-4 WAR from him. Playing a corner OF in Milwaukee will certainly help his defensive ratings so that 3-4 WAR might turn into 4-5 WAR. For the money and who he's replacing I think that's a good value.

 

[petes999]

Just think it is interesting that only 43 OFs per FanGraph have a WAR of 2.0 or over last year (and only 1 in Straw for us). I always like the reference of a few superstars like Ramirez/Bieber on your team and then try to fill out your roster with WARs around 2, if you can, and that should make you an elite team.

So, I guess many Guardian fans would be happy with a near 2 WAR from Renfroe (1.8 last year is in 45-50 range for OFs) as a blah is better than what we can throw out there right now (Mercado was .6 WAR and Zimmer was 1.1 WAR range and Naylor was negative .6). And, I also agree, if you have players in 1.5 War to 2.0 WAR range, then you look for intangibles such as defense to see who plays. Maybe with full year, Zimmer can be 1.5 WAR type player where with Straw in right and center they can cheat and cover up a Renfroe's defense in left. Yet, I also remember throwing Santana in left just to try to get another bat in the lineup. When desperate, you settle as Santana, back when, or Renfroe > Mercado/Naylor. But, it is all hypothetical now ...

 

[sportscoach]

Just think it is interesting that only 43 OFs per FanGraph have a WAR of 2.0 or over last year (and only 1 in Straw for us). I always like the reference of a few superstars like Ramirez/Bieber on your team and then try to fill out your roster with WARs around 2, if you can, and that should make you an elite team.

So, I guess many Guardian fans would be happy with a near 2 WAR from Renfroe (1.8 last year is in 45-50 range for OFs) as a blah is better than what we can throw out there right now (Mercado was .6 WAR and Zimmer was 1.1 WAR range and Naylor was negative .6). And, I also agree, if you have players in 1.5 War to 2.0 WAR range, then you look for intangibles such as defense to see who plays. Maybe with full year, Zimmer can be 1.5 WAR type player where with Straw in right and center they can cheat and cover up a Renfroe's defense in left. Yet, I also remember throwing Santana in left just to try to get another bat in the lineup. When desperate, you settle as Santana, back when, or Renfroe > Mercado/Naylor. But, it is all hypothetical now ...

Renfroe is in RF not LF... I know that sounds strange but one of his strengths is a plus arm which plays better in RF. Also majority of his career has been in RF, so I think in smaller parks, he definitely will play much better there on paper.

Your numbers mean though at the end of the day less than 50% of projected starters in MLB had that WAR, which means production for OFs around baseball is honestly down. Sounds like we almost may have to deal with promotion from spots within...

Do you know which ones with a WAR above 2 are available in free agency?