Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Gson]

I'm not advocating for Ahmed, because while I liked his overall play in 2021, I think we can get better.....but, for those more knowledgeable(or those who think they are), is there any belief that Ahmed has hit his 'peak'? He's 25, right? He's played essentially 2 full seasons in the ML, is there not the potential for elevated play from him? Not that he's going to turn into a 35 homer guy, but has he reached a level already that 'he is who he is'?

@Alabuckeye ..generally speaking.. when a player has more than 1000 to more than 1500 ML AB's.. that's who he is... Regression and/or elevation from these numbers are usually incremental, at best.. save for an outlier stat....

 

[Alabuckeye]

@Alabuckeye ..generally speaking.. when a player has more than 1000 to more than 1500 ML AB's.. that's who he is... Regression and/or elevation from these numbers are usually incremental, at best.. save for an outlier stat....

That's fair. He has 2000, so that's a solid foundation for evaluation I would guess. I was going more off of age, and the idea that players hit their peak in years 27, 28, 29 and thinking that he was just entering that window.

 

[DCTribefan]

Let's say we get someone like Pham. He is someone who does have health concerns so I think he wouldn't be a true "every day" player but we would hope could start about 80% of games. Straw, as an every dayer would be expected to play around 90% of games. This leaves about 1.3 OF slots open on average per game, which can be filled with some combination of Zimmer/Kwan/Palacios from the left or Mercado/Rosario from the right. I personally don't think that's a bad place to be in. But... take 2.1 OF slots open on average per game and you're forced to play some of these guys against the wrong pitchers, etc, and overall just not achieving as good of results.

If Pham is the biggest off-season move, welcome to third place in 2022.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm not advocating for Ahmed, because while I liked his overall play in 2021, I think we can get better.....but, for those more knowledgeable(or those who think they are), is there any belief that Ahmed has hit his 'peak'? He's 25, right? He's played essentially 2 full seasons in the ML, is there not the potential for elevated play from him? Not that he's going to turn into a 35 homer guy, but has he reached a level already that 'he is who he is'?

I think his ceiling is 15 HR. He hit 11 this year in 550 AB. His value comes with his speed and hit tool. He needs to be more patient, but expecting improvement there as he matures. Nice ballplayer and I don't mind seeing him in the MIF, but he is no corner OFer IMO.

 

[KluberSociety]

If Pham is the biggest off-season move, welcome to third place in 2022.

If we sell off the farm to get a few bigger upgrades, we still might get third place in 2022. Typical Cleveland FO fashion involves maximizing contention windows, which I agree with. If we do not get off to a good start then we can sell off our short term assets and roll back our plans to the next year, etc.

There also probably isn't a difference between second and third place with the AL East the way it is unless playoffs expand. Chicago finished 2 games ahead of Toronto last year, and 3 games ahead of Seattle - both missed the Wild Card.

Cleveland finished 13 GB of Chicago, and 11 GB of the Wild Card.

 

[Criznit]

If we sell off the farm to get a few bigger upgrades, we still might get third place in 2022. Typical Cleveland FO fashion involves maximizing contention windows, which I agree with. If we do not get off to a good start then we can sell off our short term assets and roll back our plans to the next year, etc.

There also probably isn't a difference between second and third place with the AL East the way it is unless playoffs expand. Chicago finished 2 games ahead of Toronto last year, and 3 games ahead of Seattle - both missed the Wild Card.

Cleveland finished 13 GB of Chicago, and 11 GB of the Wild Card.

Would that be JRam? Austin Hedges? Amed Rosario? Honestly, we don't seem to have any "real" short term assets to sell unless you are implying JRam. Everyone one else who is close to FA on our team isn't really good enough to pull a return of high value. That's kinda our problem, we don't have many good major league players ( well hitters at least) that would be considered short term assets.

 

[KluberSociety]

Would that be JRam? Austin Hedges? Amed Rosario? Honestly, we don't seem to have any "real" short term assets to sell unless you are implying JRam. Everyone one else who is close to FA on our team isn't really good enough to pull a return of high value. That's kinda our problem, we don't have many good major league players ( well hitters at least) that would be considered short term assets. Same goes for pitchers, but they are good and we wouldn't be selling them in a situation like this IMO.

Yes that would include the 2023ers (only JRam and Rosario).

Hedges is 2022 and is probably of more value to us than any other team, and more of a bag o' balls kind of guy. Maybe we will have some stop gap 1 year contracts too like Eddie Rosario.

2024 has Bieber and Reyes.

If we don't think we can sign Jose, we could probably get significantly more for him than we did for Lindor via the midseason trade. That's the big move I'd try to make if things came to that.

 

[Gson]

Yes that would include the 2023ers (only JRam and Rosario).

Hedges is 2022 and is probably of more value to us than any other team, and more of a bag o' balls kind of guy. Maybe we will have some stop gap 1 year contracts too like Eddie Rosario.

2024 has Bieber and Reyes.

If we don't think we can sign Jose, we could probably get significantly more for him than we did for Lindor via the midseason trade. That's the big move I'd try to make if things came to that.

So.. discussing this potential/eventuality.. makes sense..

 

[PocketMonger]

1.5 seasons of Jose is worth significantly more than one year of Lindor. Jose is the flat out better player and he would fetch a big haul at the deadline.

 

[CDAV45]

1.5 seasons of Jose is worth significantly more than one year of Lindor. Jose is the flat out better player and he would fetch a big haul at the deadline.

And he's not owed $20+M in arbitration. Even if the money was the same, Jose is still worth more because he's a better player.

 

[CDAV45]

So long as Amed is not the regular CLE SS in 2022 I will be ok. Trade him or move to another spot on the field.

With all the middle INF options, moving him to 2b still causes problems. LF is an option due to fewer options.

I do not view it as trouble if he is in LF. While I would prefer Palacios to get the playing opportunity, after watching Mercado/ Zimmer struggle at the plate the few years, I’d play Amed in LF before those 2 to start most games.

Consider this: is Tito more likely to play Amed in the LF or Palacios??

I have no idea what Tito thinks of Palacios. I'm sure he'e well versed with the kid's performance, but I have no intuition/inclination of Tito's feelings toward him. I do however feel that Tito will not play Amed in LF. He'll keep him at SS before doing that. Hell, if he wanted to do that he would have probably already don't it. There was ample opportunity last season to play Amed in LF and he didn't get a single rep.

They'll make a move, but I doubt if it is one any of us expected.

 

[KluberSociety]

I have no idea what Tito thinks of Palacios. I'm sure he'e well versed with the kid's performance, but I have no intuition/inclination of Tito's feelings toward him. I do however feel that Tito will not play Amed in LF. He'll keep him at SS before doing that. Hell, if he wanted to do that he would have probably already don't it. There was ample opportunity last season to play Amed in LF and he didn't get a single rep.

They'll make a move, but I doubt if it is one any of us expected.

If others knock him off that position, where do you put him? He still would play, somewhere. You can't play 3 people at SS at the same time.

Of course we can pick up an OF or two, or have Kwan play himself into a role. In that case, Amed might be better suited to play IF.

I think the situation is - either way, Amed is likely to be the one to move around based on the rest of the roster. I didn't mention Palacios cause he is somewhat similar. It is an interesting thought experiment though - if we want both Amed and Palacios in the lineup, and both 2B and LF are open up, where do we stick each?

 

[Criznit]

If others knock him off that position, where do you put him? He still would play, somewhere. You can't play 3 people at SS at the same time.

Of course we can pick up an OF or two, or have Kwan play himself into a role. In that case, Amed might be better suited to play IF.

I think the situation is - either way, Amed is likely to be the one to move around based on the rest of the roster. I didn't mention Palacios cause he is somewhat similar. It is an interesting thought experiment though - if we want both Amed and Palacios in the lineup, and both 2B and LF are open up, where do we stick each?

Amed is likely to be the better defender at 2nd, and if we are looking to sell on him at some point, he has more value as a 2nd baseman/SS for sure.

That said we have too many MIFs that would be better options at 2nd base from a defensive standpoint than Palacios. Think Palacios is almost a 100% lock as an OFer going forward, at least for us.

 

[KluberSociety]

Amed is likely to be the better defender at 2nd, and if we are looking to sell on him at some point, he has more value as a 2nd baseman/SS for sure.

That said we have too many MIFs that would be better options at 2nd base from a defensive standpoint than Palacios. Think Palacios is almost a 100% lock as an OFer going forward, at least for us.

I agree. Amed will likely be with the team way less time, so the position we see him at long-term matters less, whereas there is a nonzero chance we will want Richie playing OF for 6 years.

 

[Gson]

However long Amed is with the Guardians.. you have to ask.. in what spot is Amed the least painful defensively and best offensively? ( assumes the DH is not a viable use)

When Amed was playing SS, he was hitting.. and hitting well.. so the offensive side of the question is easily answered..

The defensive side is a bit more complex.. It's a given that Andres Gimenez is a better defender at SS.. but is the team better with a non-hitting Amed and Gimenez at SS or is the team better with Amed AT SS while Gimenez mans 2B?..I submit that the team is better defensively, if Amed MUST BE ON THE FIELD, w/ Amed at SS and Gimenez at 2B..

...part of being a team..