Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[CATS44]

Are you sure you the Padres are the example you want to use to support your narrative?

The team that has aggressively traded their farm system away for established major league talent only to finish 79-83?

Our FO is demonstrably more intelligent than Prellers group....which is why we trade with them.

But before completely dismissing Preller, it should be noted that he STILL has lots of high end talent left, if he wants to trade more of them.


He has at least two...and up to four...that are rated higher than anybody we have.

His biggest mistake was that he didn't trade Makenzie Gore, when everybody was willing to trade their first born for him.

 

[CDAV45]

We drafted 12 pitchers specifically because of our lack of organizational depth at the position

That statement is not accurate. It was a pitching heavy draft and Cleveland isn't the only team that took advantage of it.

 

[CDAV45]

Package some of those guys we are possibly cutting ties with and Plesac for a young corner outfielder. We also just drafted 12 pitchers as well we got depth to trade

Got anyone in mind? The idea is good, but the likelihood of it coming to fruition is meager at best. Unless you're getting Teoscar Hernandez or someone like that, I'm not at all interested in dealing Zach. He's a damn good SP and it won't be as easy as many think replacing him IMO.

 

[sportscoach]

That statement is not accurate. It was a pitching heavy draft and Cleveland isn't the only team that took advantage of it.

No bimbo did say they were focusing on pitching because of the way international signings went since it was super focused on hitting so they needed the pitching to compliment that as well... They only had a few hitters on the board it felt like and one of them got taken right before their pick

 

[Derek]

That statement is not accurate. It was a pitching heavy draft and Cleveland isn't the only team that took advantage of it.

It’s 100% accurate, Bimbo even told us as much.

Our lower levels were lacking in pitching.

 

[CATS44]

Perhaps balance is a better word for this years drafting than lack.

Using fangraphs' preseason list of team prospects, 23 of the 49 were pitchers, but eight of them have already been to Cleveland. We added Stubbs before the draft....giving us a total of 16 pitching prospects below the MLB level.

Of the 26 position prospects, three got to Cleveland, leaving 23 position prospects.

The drafting formula the org uses is very young hitting prospects and older, college experienced SP prospects. Older college SPs have to come thru the draft, because they don't exist in the international pool.

I would not be surprised if we continue to see this happen....sign or draft 17 yr old hitters and draft 21 yr old pitchers.

There is so much attrition in pitchers due to injury that it makes a lot of sense drafting pitchers that are three years away than five or six years away.

 

[macbdog]

Perhaps balance is a better word for this years drafting than lack.

Using fangraphs' preseason list of team prospects, 23 of the 49 were pitchers, but eight of them have already been to Cleveland. We added Stubbs before the draft....giving us a total of 16 pitching prospects below the MLB level.

Of the 26 position prospects, three got to Cleveland, leaving 23 position prospects.

The drafting formula the org uses is very young hitting prospects and older, college experienced SP prospects. Older college SPs have to come thru the draft, because they don't exist in the international pool.

I would not be surprised if we continue to see this happen....sign or draft 17 yr old hitters and draft 21 yr old pitchers.

There is so much attrition in pitchers due to injury that it makes a lot of sense drafting pitchers that are three years away than five or six years away.

As much as anything, the Indians haven't done well with high school pitchers but starting with the Bieber draft they have shown improvement with college guys. So if that's what they do well with, then keep it up. Now, with everyone on board with advanced pitcher training starting even in HS, at least the white middle/upper class kids may not be able to be coached up so easily going forward but at least it's one strength for the minor league system after years of having none. It's working so keep at it. Also, if it does continue to be a strength, then you have prospects to deal to fill the offensive holes.

 

[CATS44]

I wouldn't be surprised if waiting to draft young pitchers until they have some college under their belts becomes a trend. Let the colleges deal with the injuries and costs.

The risks of trying to steer a 19 yr old pitcher, no matter how good, thru three years of injury free pitching, are just too high.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Doesn't matter if they are college kids or HS kids, they have an archetype that they like, one that requires them to not have to develop the parts that are extremely hard and tedious to develop.

You can teach and develop guys to throw harder, with more command, with more movement, etc. It's the other stuff that they make sure is already there before drafting guys and it doesn't matter if they are HSers or college kids. Just more often the college kids have that in each given draft than the HS kids.

And, to this point, they've catastrophically missed only 2 highly drafted HS arms since they've taken this on. In that time, they've drafted these HS pitchers in the 1st 5 rounds in the draft:

Justus Sheffield (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Grant Hockin (2 times Tommy John, unfortunate story for a very gifted kid, miss)
Sam Hentges (at the MLB level, hit)
Brady Aiken (long story what happened here, maybe one day, miss)
Triston McKenzie (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Juan Hillman (solid organizational depth arm that will pitch at the MLB level, though not with Cleveland, TBD)
Ethan Hankins (he's just as talented as Espino, and post-TJ looks strong, TBD)
Lenny Torres (another guy just coming off TJ, lot of talent, TBD but trending miss)
Daniel Espino (stud, top 100 prospect, TBD trending hit)

90% of MLB franchises would kill to have 33% of their highly drafted HS arms make it to the MLB level and contribute. They would also kill to have 33% of them panned as highly touted prospects. Cleveland has a good chance to make it at least 6/9 at the MLB level with Hillman, Hankins, and Espino. Only a matter of time with those 3.

 

[CATS44]

Doesn't matter if they are college kids or HS kids, they have an archetype that they like, one that requires them to not have to develop the parts that are extremely hard and tedious to develop.

You can teach and develop guys to throw harder, with more command, with more movement, etc. It's the other stuff that they make sure is already there before drafting guys and it doesn't matter if they are HSers or college kids. Just more often the college kids have that in each given draft than the HS kids.

And, to this point, they've catastrophically missed only 2 highly drafted HS arms since they've taken this on. In that time, they've drafted these HS pitchers in the 1st 5 rounds in the draft:

Justus Sheffield (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Grant Hockin (2 times Tommy John, unfortunate story for a very gifted kid, miss)
Sam Hentges (at the MLB level, hit)
Brady Aiken (long story what happened here, maybe one day, miss)
Triston McKenzie (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Juan Hillman (solid organizational depth arm that will pitch at the MLB level, though not with Cleveland, TBD)
Ethan Hankins (he's just as talented as Espino, and post-TJ looks strong, TBD)
Lenny Torres (another guy just coming off TJ, lot of talent, TBD but trending miss)
Daniel Espino (stud, top 100 prospect, TBD trending hit)

90% of MLB franchises would kill to have 33% of their highly drafted HS arms make it to the MLB level and contribute. They would also kill to have 33% of them panned as highly touted prospects. Cleveland has a good chance to make it at least 6/9 at the MLB level with Hillman, Hankins, and Espino. Only a matter of time with those 3.

This is all true, but making it to MLB and producing over six years of team control and/or three options are two different things. Hits are pitchers that actually succeed at the MLB level.

IF making to MLB counted, Plutko-Morimando-Merrit would all be hits.

Over the last ten seasons, we've had 4 teen age SP prospects who contributed significantly to our rotation.

Ubaldo
McAllister
Salazar
Cookie

TMac might be the next one.

 

[BimboColesHair]

This is all true, but making it to MLB and producing over six years of team control and/or three options are two different things. Hits are pitchers that actually succeed at the MLB level.

IF making to MLB counted, Plutko-Morimando-Merrit would all be hits.

Over the last ten seasons, we've had 4 teen age SP prospects who contributed significantly to our rotation.

Ubaldo
McAllister
Salazar
Cookie

TMac might be the next one.

It is so incredibly difficult to consistently develop drafted and signed HS players, especially pitchers, and have them reach the MLB and provide anything. Success rate of HS pitchers drafted, signing, and just getting to the MLB is barely in the teens over the last 10 years. Successful players is even smaller. Anything with that low of a success rate that you succeed at at a higher level is a hit.

And funny you mention Plutko, he is the biggest hit of the past decade for the formerly known as Indians. No draft pick has impacted the franchise more than that one in recent memory.

 

[sportscoach]

It is so incredibly difficult to consistently develop drafted HS players, especially pitchers, and have them reach the MLB and provide anything. Success rate of HS pitchers drafted, signing, and just getting to the MLB is barely in the teens over the last 10 years. Successful players is even smaller. Anything with that low of a success rate that you succeed at at a higher level is a hit.

And funny you mention Plutko, he is the biggest hit of the past decade for the formerly known as Indians. No draft pick has impacted the franchise more than that one in recent memory.

Why is he such a big hit?

 

[DCTribefan]

Doesn't matter if they are college kids or HS kids, they have an archetype that they like, one that requires them to not have to develop the parts that are extremely hard and tedious to develop.

You can teach and develop guys to throw harder, with more command, with more movement, etc. It's the other stuff that they make sure is already there before drafting guys and it doesn't matter if they are HSers or college kids. Just more often the college kids have that in each given draft than the HS kids.

And, to this point, they've catastrophically missed only 2 highly drafted HS arms since they've taken this on. In that time, they've drafted these HS pitchers in the 1st 5 rounds in the draft:

Justus Sheffield (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Grant Hockin (2 times Tommy John, unfortunate story for a very gifted kid, miss)
Sam Hentges (at the MLB level, hit)
Brady Aiken (long story what happened here, maybe one day, miss)
Triston McKenzie (consistent top 100 prospect until graduating, at the MLB level, hit)
Juan Hillman (solid organizational depth arm that will pitch at the MLB level, though not with Cleveland, TBD)
Ethan Hankins (he's just as talented as Espino, and post-TJ looks strong, TBD)
Lenny Torres (another guy just coming off TJ, lot of talent, TBD but trending miss)
Daniel Espino (stud, top 100 prospect, TBD trending hit)

90% of MLB franchises would kill to have 33% of their highly drafted HS arms make it to the MLB level and contribute. They would also kill to have 33% of them panned as highly touted prospects. Cleveland has a good chance to make it at least 6/9 at the MLB level with Hillman, Hankins, and Espino. Only a matter of time with those 3.

Generally agree with your list though Sheffield has yet to prove anything at MLB level other than advancing to the show.

 

[CDAV45]

No bimbo did say they were focusing on pitching because of the way international signings went since it was super focused on hitting so they needed the pitching to compliment that as well... They only had a few hitters on the board it felt like and one of them got taken right before their pick

I think that's pretty much what I was getting at. It was a pitching rich draft. Especially compared to the number and quality of hitters. Maybe I'm mistaken.

 

[sportscoach]

I think that's pretty much what I was getting at. It was a pitching rich draft. Especially compared to the number and quality of hitters. Maybe I'm mistaken.

It was more quality pitchers than hitters to begin with, but at the same time the FO and scouts essentially had a draft board focused on pitching as well cause of how the international signings went. When there is more quality pitching and the need was on the pitching side, it ended up being lots of pitchers being drafted cause of both factors...