This comment is a perfect example of why I think "ceiling" is an illusion.
Agreed with your post.
Collin has the athleticism and seems to have the work ethic that -- to me -- makes discussing his "ceiling" almost impossible. The odds on him improving his long-range jumpshot to the point where he averaged over 40% from three (the generally agreed upon demarcation line between just being a good shooter and being an elite shooter) seemed absurd 6 months ago. If he can put in enough work to do that, he can do just about anything.
For all of the scouting reports and all of the "experts" telling us Collin's limitations, I'd bet you could get much better odds that, by the end of the season, Collin would be a well above average defender for his position than a guy who could shoot over 40% from three for an entire season, while averaging 32 minutes a night and playing all 82 games.
Sure, he only took 3.6 three-point attempts per game, but before the All-Star Break, he was averaging just 2.2 3pt attempts per game and making 39.2% of them. Still a VERY high number for a rookie. Naysayers assumed that in the 2nd half of the year, because of his perimeter success, he would force more long jumpers and they'd be the bricks that were expected at the beginning of the season.
Couldn't have been a worse take. Collin did take a lot more 3pt attempts after the break (6 a game up from 2.2), but his 3pt% shot up to 42.2%.
The more threes he took, the better his success rate.
His three-point shooting was such a stunner it needs to be put into proper context. And, I know that teams in the early and semi-middle portion of the season were going way under on screens, daring him to shoot and it is easier to make them that way. But, again, his numbers actually improved when defenses started to respect and, yes, even gameplan around trying to push him off that line.
So, with all that being said, how many 18-20yo rookies ever stepped into the league and shot from three
this well? Landry Shamet had a hell of a year (this was a really good rookie class fwiw) and he technically finished with the top 3pt% among rookies, but he is 22-years-old. One would expect a guy who is 22 to have more polish to his game than a 19-20-year-old.
Here is how far Sexton and Shamet stood out among the rest of the rookies in the great 2018 class:
1. Landry Shamet (PHI/LAC): 42.3% on 6.0 attempts
2.
Collin Sexton (CLE): 40.2% on 3.6 attempts
3. Kevin Huerter (ATL):37.8% on 4.7 attempts
4. Kevin Knox (NYK): 34.9% on 4.8 attempts
5. Mikal Bridges (PHO): 33.5% on 3.8 attempts
6. Luca Doncic (DAL): 32.7% on 7.1 attempts
7. Trae Young (ATL): 32.6% on 5.9 attempts
So, nobody was even close to Shamet and Collin, and Shamet is 22-years-old. Bridges was seen to be a legit knockdown 3-and-D shooter coming out of college. He averaged 0.2 more attempts per game than Collin and made them at a rate of almost seven full percentage points less frequently.
Let's take it even further... how many 18-20-year-old rookies in NBA
history shot threes at a 40.2% clip? Here is that list:
1. Jayson Tatum, 19yo (BOS): 43.4% on 3.0 attempts
2. Mike Miller, 20yo (ORL): 40.7% on 4.4 attempts
3.
Collin Sexton, 19yo (CLE): 40.2% on 3.6 attempts
4. Kyrie Irving, 19yo (CLE): 39.9% on 3.6 attempts
5. Jrue Holiday, 19yo (PHI): 39.0% on 2.2 attempts
6. Eric Gordon, 20yo (LAC): 38.9% on 4.3 attempts
7. Brad Beal, 19yo (WAS): 38.6% on 4.2 attempts
8. Brandon Knight, 20yo (DET): 38.0% on 4.2 attempts
9. Kevin Huerter, 20yo (ATL): 37.8% on 4.7 attempts
10. James Harden, 20yo (OKC): 37.5% on 3.3 attempts
This was a historic season-long shooting display by Sexton regardless of how you want to slice it up.
Ok, we all know he's not going to be 6-5. But we have no idea how much he can improve as a basketball player.
Interesting you bring up height. I'm not saying Sexton will ever grow to be 6'4 or 6'5, but this was his 19-20yo season in the NBA. Giannis was a teenager when he entered the NBA at 6'9. He is now 7'0 tall. LeBron has visibly gotten taller since coming in at 18-19yo. I think the combine listed LeBron at around 6'7 if memory serves.
With a lot of these guys that come in as teenagers, their heights do jump up over the next few years. Sexton is listed at 6'2. That seems generous. But there is no doubt in my mind that, a few years from now, he could even exceed 6'2.
I mean, I wasn't done growing at 19-20 years old. Unfortunately, I've grown both vertically and horizontally in the ensuing years. lol
