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Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

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What Resolves First?

  • Collin Sexton's Restricted Free Agency

    Votes: 19 38.8%
  • Baker Mayfield's Tenure with the Browns

    Votes: 30 61.2%

  • Total voters
    49
  • Poll closed .
Pretty sure injury insurance does not cover contracts you were never offered because of an injury. How would you actualize that?

There is a thing called "lost income insurance", but that just keeps you at or near what you currently earn.

It's called total disability insurance, and it is really popular among NCAA football players:

Leonard Fornette, for example, had a $10M insurance policy that got paid out if he didn't go in the first round due to an injury

 
It's called total disability insurance, and it is really popular among NCAA football players:

Leonard Fornette, for example, had a $10M insurance policy that got paid out if he didn't go in the first round due to an injury
There's a big difference between an insurance policy that pays out $10M and anything that would bridge the gap between Sexton's QO and the amount he'd be leaving on the table if he were to opt for the QO.

If Collin has a standing offer of 5/$75M from the Cavs but wants to take the QO and find an insurance policy for over $60M to protect the money he'd be leaving on the table, I can't imagine an insurance company being too eager to play.

Edited to clarify my point -- I did a shitty job articulating the first time around.
 
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There's a big difference between an insurance policy that pays out $10M and anything that would bridge the gap between Sexton's QO and the amount he'd be leaving on the table if he were to opt for the QO. If Collin has a standing offer of 5/$75M from the Cavs but wants an insurance policy for over $60M, I can't imagine an insurance company being too eager to play.

Well, it depends on what percentage they'd be taking from his 5/75....

There is an entire field in quantitative mathematics which specializes in this sort of thing -- and $60M is small ball to many of them.
 
Well, it depends on what percentage they'd be taking from his 5/75....

There is an entire field in quantitative mathematics which specializes in this sort of thing -- and $60M is small ball to many of them.

It would likely cost close to the entire QO after agents & taxes to get $60Mil in coverage.
 
First off, I'll be very surprised if Sexton plays on the Q.O. because it would be very difficult for him to improve his market in the role he'd like have here. The reporting is the Cavs last, best offer was 3 years at $51M which equates to almost $17M per. So far anyway, no other team has come close to matching that offer, let alone beating it. I think the timing sucks for Sexton given his injury, but things can always get worse from the player's perspective. Just ask Dennis Schroeder. Sexton wanting more money, and Sexton finding a team willing to offer more money, either as restricted or unrestricted free agent, are two very different things.
I don't disagree. The Cavs are in a dominating position strategically right now for sure. It would almost seem to be a big slap in the face to do a max offer at 10-12M, and would he accept it? I just can't see how he takes that deal.

So if their best offer, in your opinion, is only 12M per, then I think he may indeed end up taking the QO, unless there is a S&T deal that comes through, willing to pay him 18M per with an attractive return.

Does Dallas make it happen, does Miami want Collin? Who knows, but, if the offer is not at least 16M and no S&T presents itself, I feel Collin will probably go UFA route.

Hence how we arrive to what I originally thought would happen that the Cavs will try to lock him up for cheap, aka 15-17M. Their original offer may still very much be in play. I'm sure Collin's agent will lower their asking price as a result. 20M is unrealistic now it seems.
 
It would likely cost close to the entire QO after agents & taxes to get $60Mil in coverage.

No idea --- to tell you the truth -- but my gut feeling is that this is high.

The odds that Sexton -- who is 23 yo and already has a 24 PPG season under his belt -- will never make $60M in future NBA contracts, honestly seems very low to me. Rubio is 31, just tore an ACL for the second time (more serious than Sexton's injury) and still picked up $18M.

There are a lot of pretty average players on this list, and contracts are likely to go through the roof over the next few years (as well as inflation):


To totally guesstimate right now, let's say his average earning potential is around $150M (honestly seems conservative), and he has a 10% chance of never making $60M, and in the cases he doesn't make $60M, he makes $30M on average.

Running through that very roughly, i'd want something like $3M upfront, or 2% of his future earnings in order to guarantee him a $60M insurance policy.
 
Well, it depends on what percentage they'd be taking from his 5/75....

There is an entire field in quantitative mathematics which specializes in this sort of thing -- and $60M is small ball to many of them.
Sorry, I didn't word that very well the first time around so I edited my post. I'm sure something like that can be quantified, but I would venture to guess that the premium an insurance company would charge to write such a policy would be a lot higher than most would think.

Also, we need to be extremely skeptical of how motivated some of these athletes would be after guaranteeing them that kind of money. The language of the contract would be very tricky. And again, it's not just a catastrophic injury that could cause a QO gamble to blow up in his face. If he takes the QO and insures himself against injury, but just performs poorly, then he'd be really screwed.
 
Sorry, I didn't word that very well the first time around so I edited my post. I'm sure something like that can be quantified, but I would venture to guess that the premium an insurance company would charge to write such a policy would be a lot higher than most would think.

Also, we need to be extremely skeptical of how motivated some of these athletes would be after guaranteeing them that kind of money. The language of the contract would be very tricky. And again, it's not just a catastrophic injury that could cause a QO gamble to blow up in his face. If he takes the QO and insures himself against injury, but just performs poorly, then he'd be really screwed.

I agree with all of that -- but this is much more common than you think - from the ESPN article I quoted above, nearly every college football player with an expected first round grade gets similar insurance. And all risks are much much bigger for college football players (both because they are not drafted yet, and because NFL contracts aren't typically guaranteed).

This is a huge industry -- insurance companies may lose on specific players, but they have run the numbers and know the margins they need to come out ahead.

I'd make a bet that a significant fraction of all NBA players have some insurance contracts like this.

Hell, even most of my surgeon friends have million dollar insurance policies on their hands.

 
I agree with all of that -- but this is much more common than you think - from the ESPN article I quoted above, nearly every college football player with an expected first round grade gets similar insurance. And all risks are much much bigger for college football players (both because they are not drafted yet, and because NFL contracts aren't typically guaranteed).

This is a huge industry -- insurance companies may lose on specific players, but they have run the numbers and know the margins they need to come out ahead.

I'd make a bet that a significant fraction of all NBA players have some insurance contracts like this.

Hell, even most of my surgeon friends have million dollar insurance policies on their hands.

This type of insurance...it's a pretty complicated world. Both articles you linked talk about how the payout amount is hardly ever fully paid out even in the event of an injury. As a matter of fact, the CBS article seems to be about how these college athletes are being exploited by insurance companies knowing they will never have to fully pay out the policies. And the ESPN article talks about how these policies are capped out at a fraction of expected future earnings.

Furthermore, it's one thing to write a $10M policy on a projected top ten NFL prospect when a top ten pick makes double that in guaranteed money. These prospects have every reason to remain as motivated as ever to become a blue chip prospect. Once you get into a position where the payout amount could materially impact the player's motivation, things get really fuzzy.

Not saying it's a horrible idea, but it's extremely complex, and there's probably a good reason why they are not prevalent among NBA players deciding whether or not to bet on themselves.
 
I think this is going to drag out just like TT and JR Smith's contracts. The front office knows Rich Paul's negotiating tactics better than us. The Cavs might have move up their offers in the past with JR and TT to not have any meaningful negotiations downs from Rich Paul to work to a true number until late September or October.

I think under pressure of the season starting both will move off their numbers and get to the number they know it will ultimately go to. If the Cavs move off their number now, it just might move it closer to Rich Paul's asking but not closer to getting to a signed deal which ultimately might be a higher number than just a stalemate for a couple months.
 
I really would like to see Sexton and have him prove himself here. Hope it’s nothing too big of a contract and a more 3 yr friendly deal with player option in year 3.

I will never forget this type of game when he beat up Kyrie, Harden, and Durant scoring 20 straight points in 4th/OT. Was just memorable to watch him play and would like to see keep improving.

 
Running through that very roughly, i'd want something like $3M upfront, or 2% of his future earnings in order to guarantee him a $60M insurance policy.

You are not that far off from my estimate.

But 4% of an NBA player’s salary goes to his agent
Then 37% goes to federal taxes
And 5% goes to state taxes
And 2% goes to local taxes

So how much do you think he’d have left over to buy this hypothetical policy on 7.2 mil salary?
 
I love how this board runs Collin down if you go by statistics he is on par with all the big name pg or shooting guards playing in the nba check it out you can not go by your eye test or by what the media tells you .
 
I love how this board runs Collin down if you go by statistics he is on par with all the big name pg or shooting guards playing in the nba check it out you can not go by your eye test or by what the media tells you .
You’re right, the Cavs are being dumb. That’s why Sexton was able to sign that huge offer sheet.
 
I don't disagree. The Cavs are in a dominating position strategically right now for sure. It would almost seem to be a big slap in the face to do a max offer at 10-12M, and would he accept it? I just can't see how he takes that deal.

So if their best offer, in your opinion, is only 12M per, then I think he may indeed end up taking the QO, unless there is a S&T deal that comes through, willing to pay him 18M per with an attractive return.

Does Dallas make it happen, does Miami want Collin? Who knows, but, if the offer is not at least 16M and no S&T presents itself, I feel Collin will probably go UFA route.

Hence how we arrive to what I originally thought would happen that the Cavs will try to lock him up for cheap, aka 15-17M. Their original offer may still very much be in play. I'm sure Collin's agent will lower their asking price as a result. 20M is unrealistic now it seems.
I don't have any reason to believe that the Cavs have pulled the $16-17M offer. I don't really think this is about leverage, except insofar as Sexton not having any, as it is about his market value not being where he wants it to be.
 

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