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Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

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What Resolves First?

  • Collin Sexton's Restricted Free Agency

    Votes: 19 38.8%
  • Baker Mayfield's Tenure with the Browns

    Votes: 30 61.2%

  • Total voters
    49
  • Poll closed .
I think this is going to drag out just like TT and JR Smith's contracts. The front office knows Rich Paul's negotiating tactics better than us. The Cavs might have move up their offers in the past with JR and TT to not have any meaningful negotiations downs from Rich Paul to work to a true number until late September or October.

I think under pressure of the season starting both will move off their numbers and get to the number they know it will ultimately go to. If the Cavs move off their number now, it just might move it closer to Rich Paul's asking but not closer to getting to a signed deal which ultimately might be a higher number than just a stalemate for a couple months.
This is nothing like the JR and TT situations. The Cavs could not replace those guys as they were already in the tax, LBJ was on the roster, and they didn't have the luxury of waiting for cap to clear.

Sexton wants more money is not a reason to pay him more money. I'm sorry it's just not.
 
Also I feel what is being forgotten is that assuming Dallas did offer him $21 million, we all know that would require a sign and trade. Well I'm sure Dallas is thinking that it is better to overpay a total of let's say $12-15 million over the course of the contract if it means getting out of one or more of their bad contracts. Again, assuming it was even true, I'm sure they are thinking Sexton for $21 million per year is better than Davis Bertrans and Josh Green at $21 million. It's like overpaying for 2 shitty cars and realizing you can trade them both in and get an Acura. I think there's a reason why there hasn't been a team with cap space to offer him a contract.
 
I don't have any reason to believe that the Cavs have pulled the $16-17M offer. I don't really think this is about leverage, except insofar as Sexton not having any, as it is about his market value not being where he wants it to be.

TT and JR had more leverage but Rich Paul knows the Cavs aren't going to give their best and final offer out right from the get go. They both know there is room to negotiate and as they get closer to the start of the season they will get both sides to come off their numbers to get to a compromise.

The Cavs don't want Sexton to play on the QO. it will really hurt his trade value since most teams trading for him will see it as a rental and puts a much short timer on when to trade him. That's some leverage in the situation.

Rodney Hood played on the QO and the Cavs got 2 pretty crappy 2nd round picks for him. The 2021 was traded away but end up as #51 and the 2023 will most likely end up on that range too. Cavs just bought a pick in that range for 1.7 million in cash consideration.
 
Also I feel what is being forgotten is that assuming Dallas did offer him $21 million, we all know that would require a sign and trade. Well I'm sure Dallas is thinking that it is better to overpay a total of let's say $12-15 million over the course of the contract if it means getting out of one or more of their bad contracts. Again, assuming it was even true, I'm sure they are thinking Sexton for $21 million per year is better than Davis Bertrans and Josh Green at $21 million. It's like overpaying for 2 shitty cars and realizing you can trade them both in and get an Acura. I think there's a reason why there hasn't been a team with cap space to offer him a contract.
Precisely. The chances of Bertrans being worth his contract are zero. The chances of DinWiddie being worth his contract are zero. Even if the chances of Sexton being worth $21M per are 20%, it's better value.

But the Mavs haven't actually offered Sexton anything because they don't have the cap space to offer it.
 
TT and JR had more leverage but Rich Paul knows the Cavs aren't going to give their best and final offer out right from the get go. They both know there is room to negotiate and as they get closer to the start of the season they will get both sides to come off their numbers to get to a compromise.

The Cavs don't want Sexton to play on the QO. it will really hurt his trade value since most teams trading for him will see it as a rental and puts a much short timer on when to trade him. That's some leverage in the situation.

Rodney Hood played on the QO and the Cavs got 2 pretty crappy 2nd round picks for him. The 2021 was traded away but end up as #51 and the 2023 will most likely end up on that range too. Cavs just bought a pick in that range for 1.7 million in cash consideration.
If the Cavs have offered him more than anyone else, and that appears to be the case, then there's no reason for them to continue to negotiate.
 
If the Cavs have offered him more than anyone else, and that appears to be the case, then there's no reason for them to continue to negotiate.

The reason to negotiate is so the player and agent feel like they win alittle bit back so they sign the contract. It's also why you don't give your best and final offer right away. The team doesn't want to piss off Sexton and have him play on the QO. Leave room for negotiation so both side leave somewhat happy.
 
Also I feel what is being forgotten is that assuming Dallas did offer him $21 million, we all know that would require a sign and trade. Well I'm sure Dallas is thinking that it is better to overpay a total of let's say $12-15 million over the course of the contract if it means getting out of one or more of their bad contracts. Again, assuming it was even true, I'm sure they are thinking Sexton for $21 million per year is better than Davis Bertrans and Josh Green at $21 million. It's like overpaying for 2 shitty cars and realizing you can trade them both in and get an Acura. I think there's a reason why there hasn't been a team with cap space to offer him a contract.
No one offered him $21 million/year.

That’s still stemming from a fake account. There’s really not a lot of tangible evidence out there that the Mavs are credibly linked to Sexton, but even if it makes sense that they should be, we’ve never heard a dollar figure.
 
People are forgetting that there is also injury insurance for things like this....

If taking the QO gives him a good chance of getting 3yr/$60M ($67.5M total) next year, he's not just going to take a 4yr/$50M this year.
But he has to buy it and how much does that policy cost? A policy also will not likely be reasonable cost to insure to get $60M if the has an injury. He certainly can take out a policy but it likely won't reach the $40M of lost income threshold.
 
The reason to negotiate is so the player and agent feel like they win alittle bit back so they sign the contract. It's also why you don't give your best and final offer right away. The team doesn't want to piss off Sexton and have him play on the QO. Leave room for negotiation so both side leave somewhat happy.
This is not a good reason to pay a player more money than other teams are offering in a league with a salary cap.

It is also not how you should negotiate when a player is heading into free agency, restricted or otherwise. Make the best offer you're comfortable making so that if the player signs for more with another team, you don't regret failing to make your best offer.

It may be how some teams and players negotiate at the beginning of extension discussions, but long before you get to this point, both parties should be bottom lining it. At less than 12 hours before players can actually sign, there's just a fundamental difference of opinion. I would add that if you're an agency that is playing those types of games at this point in free agency, you're doing the client a disservice.
 
Right -- I just mean there is an insurance company that is probably willing to gamble on that.

Like, if we offered him 4yr $30 million -- there is definitely a guy who will guarantee him $50M in exchange for a 20% cut of whatever his next contract is.
That's not how insurance works. They will want X amount up front against the value of the policy based on what the actuarial tables say. It's possible Sexton would have to pay $10M for a $50M policy due to his injury history.

And who would guarantee him $50M for a 20% cut? He'd need to have a $250M contract for him to get that money back. Again, insurance doesn't work like that. An insurance company will assess its risk and charge accordingly and Sexton will be out that money. Now if he gets injured, it pays for itself. No different than a term life insurance policy. Risk is assessed, a fee is charged for the term, and that money is lost but your family ends up making out if you do die.

Sexton can pay a couple million to insure himself against injury and some future loss but the price all depends on the numbers the actuaries crunch.
 
This is not a good reason to pay a player more money than other teams are offering in a league with a salary cap.

It is also not how you should negotiate when a player is heading into free agency, restricted or otherwise. Make the best offer you're comfortable making so that if the player signs for more with another team, you don't regret failing to make your best offer.

It's how you negotiate at the beginning of extension discussions, but long before you get to this point, both parties should be bottom lining it. At less than 12 hours before players can actually sign, there's just a fundamental difference of opinion. I would add that if you're an agency that is playing those types of games at this point in free agency, you're doing the client a disservice.

Im not sure how much you've negotiated stuff but if you have alot of similar options and you can throw out your best offer then walk away, that's a fine strategy. If you are negotiating one on one, there is alot higher success rate when you go in knowing you will have to give alittle and meet in the middle.

Koby stresses culture and I would be surprised if he didn't leave some to negotiate so the player doesn't have hard feeling at the end of it. If a player has to come back with their tail between their legs to take an offer, that could rear it's ugly head when they rejoin the team.

I think Koby tried that hardline strategy with Rodney Hood and he took the QO. I just don't think they go that route with Sexton. They have used a good draft pick to get him and put in time to develop him.
 
Well, it depends on what percentage they'd be taking from his 5/75....

There is an entire field in quantitative mathematics which specializes in this sort of thing -- and $60M is small ball to many of them.
Ugh, there's no guarantee he'd ever get 5/75. No real insurance company is going to guarantee something if you don't pay them up front or pay a monthly premium.

Sexton will have to pay millions up front to insure himself. Because he is coming off an injury, he likely will cost more because the actuarial tables likely indicate he is more likely to either suffer further injury or suffer a decrease in performance.

No one is going to insure him for a cut of a future contract he might never get. Not going to happen.

Sexton is not likely to make up the difference in missed money. Playing on the QO is a huge risk. Look at how it worked out for Noel. Tons of money left on the table.

If the Cavs are offering $40M guaranteed and he can't get better, that's a better bet than $8.5M. He also would hit free agency when the cap is due to balloon.

If he waits until next year then he will hit later when teams likely have a lot less space to overpay. He best bet is a three year deal for whatever the top dollar is someone will pay right now.
 
It’s been 4.5 days.

We also don’t know that the Cavs are unwilling to engage in sign-and-trade options. It’s only been…. 4.5 days.
True, but this is looking very similar to the Bulls situation with Markkanen last summer. The differences being Markkanen is a 7’ who can shoot the ball while Sexton is an undersized SG. Additionally, the Cavs actually want Sexton back.

Lauri didn’t wanted to go back to Chicago and Collin is very open to coming back to Cleveland. This likely won’t be resolved anytime soon, which is why I still think this ends with Collin signing the QO.
 
Im not sure how much you've negotiated stuff but if you have alot of similar options and you can throw out your best offer then walk away, that's a fine strategy. If you are negotiating one on one, there is alot higher success rate when you go in knowing you will have to give alittle and meet in the middle.

Koby stresses culture and I would be surprised if he didn't leave some to negotiate so the player doesn't have hard feeling at the end of it. If a player has to come back with their tail between their legs to take an offer, that could rear it's ugly head when they rejoin the team.

I think Koby tried that hardline strategy with Rodney Hood and he took the QO. I just don't think they go that route with Sexton. They have used a good draft pick to get him and put in time to develop him.
There's a reason most players negotiate an extension coming off a rookie contract and don't become RFAs. If a player is entering RFA, negotiations have already failed.
 
True, but this is looking very similar to the Bulls situation with Markkanen last summer. The differences being Markkanen is a 7’ who can shoot the ball while Sexton is an undersized SG. Additionally, the Cavs actually want Sexton back.

Lauri didn’t wanted to go back to Chicago and Collin is very open to coming back to Cleveland. This likely won’t be resolved anytime soon, which is why I still think this ends with Collin signing the QO.
Then it’s really not that similar to the Markkanen situation at all.

In this situation, the team has been open with him about wanting him back.

Additionally, by all accounts the Cavs have offered a competitive contract, likely above market considering the market doesn’t value Sexton for a few reasons. Lauri was looking for a fresh start elsewhere and let that be known. It took awhile for the trade market to show itself and the Bulls shopped to find the best return.

Lastly, Markkanen was a young 7’0 shooter with some above average ball skills and mobility. That package in itself is significantly more valuable than an undersized combo guard that does most of his damage inside the arc on volume.

It’s really apples to oranges. It’s hard to find what Lauri brings on the open market. He’s unique. It’s not too hard to find what Sexton does, even if Sexton is young and does it better than many of the alternatives.
 

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