Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[inliner311]

There's a reason most players negotiate an extension coming off a rookie contract and don't become RFAs. If a player is entering RFA, negotiations have already failed.

Right but I'm not sure either side was ready to truly negotiate last off season. Sexton was coming off almost scoring 25 a game and hadn't had an real injuries. The Cavs were probably higher on Okoro than they are now. They have now taken their swing at LeVert and it hasn't gone how they envisioned. As the season went on, it became clearer that Sexton would still have a role on this team as a scorer and someone that could take pressure off Garland.

I think both side have a more realistic number and role in their minds now and can come to a middle ground.

 

[sailfish]

Then it’s really not that similar to the Markkanen situation at all.

In this situation, the team has been open with him about wanting him back.

Additionally, by all accounts the Cavs have offered a competitive contract, likely above market considering the market doesn’t value Sexton for a few reasons. Lauri was looking for a fresh start elsewhere and let that be known. It took awhile for the trade market to show itself and the Bulls shopped to find the best return.

Lastly, Markkanen was a young 7’0 shooter with some above average ball skills and mobility. That package in itself is significantly more valuable than an undersized combo guard that does most of his damage inside the arc on volume.

It’s really apples to oranges. It’s hard to find what Lauri brings on the open market. He’s unique. It’s not too hard to find what Sexton does, even if Sexton is young and does it better than many of the alternatives.

It’s similar in that it’s going to drag out throughout much of the summer. Unlike Lauri, Sexton will actually sign the qualifying offer as he wouldn’t mind returning to the Cavs

 

[dark2332]

It’s similar in that it’s going to drag out throughout much of the summer. Unlike Lauri, Sexton will actually sign the qualifying offer as he wouldn’t mind returning to the Cavs

Yeah, I don’t know. For all we know, Sexton signs next week because he’s chomping at the bit.

It’s clear to me that if the Cavs want him back, he will be back.

Personally, with the way our roster is shaping up, I would actually do what the Bulls did with Lauri. I would tell him to go find a sign-and-trade offer and we’ll work out the compensation. I want to move him.

I would rather have an expiring and a 1st rounder that we can use in a potential deadline deal than eat into next season’s cap flexibility. That’s not due to LeBron, that’s due to a surplus of wings hitting the UFA and RFA market.

I would be fine with him signing the QO, but with the minute crunch on this team, I find it hard to believe Sexton will play on it. He is not likely to have a highly productive year given the roster, and that might hurt rather than help in his quest for a big multi-year deal.

 

[inliner311]

It’s similar in that it’s going to drag out throughout much of the summer. Unlike Lauri, Sexton will actually sign the qualifying offer as he wouldn’t mind returning to the Cavs

The Bulls never wanted Lauri back. I remember rumors of them possible releasing from the QO and just let him be a unrestricted free agent. I also don't remember any negotiations actually happening between the two sides. The Bulls wanted to just get an asset back from Lauri and to move on.

Edit: I guess is was a mutual thing. Lauri didn't want to be back in Chicago either.

“We have offers from several different teams. I want a fresh start to my NBA career somewhere else. Hopefully things will be sorted out quickly with the Bulls.”

Chicago Bulls Rumors: Lauri Markkanen wants out of Chicago

A new report believes Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen has requested out of Chicago, with multiple teams interested.

dawindycity.com

 

[CavsKermit]

Right but I'm not sure either side was ready to truly negotiate last off season. Sexton was coming off almost scoring 25 a game and hadn't had an real injuries. The Cavs were probably higher on Okoro than they are now. They have now taken their swing at LeVert and it hasn't gone how they envisioned. As the season went on, it became clearer that Sexton would still have a role on this team as a scorer and someone that could take pressure off Garland.

I think both side have a more realistic number and role in their minds now and can come to a middle ground.

It's far more likely that Sexton and Klutch bet that they could get a bigger offer than the Cavs last offer. In 12 hours that will be true, or not.

If the Cavs have the best offer on table among all 30 teams, then they're being generous and the folks who need to get realistic are on the other side of the table. Leaving that offer on the table is as generous as the Cavs need to be, because if they yank it and withdraw the Q.O., there's a really good chance that Sexton ends up in an even worse place.

 

[inliner311]

Then it’s really not that similar to the Markkanen situation at all.

In this situation, the team has been open with him about wanting him back.

Additionally, by all accounts the Cavs have offered a competitive contract, likely above market considering the market doesn’t value Sexton for a few reasons. Lauri was looking for a fresh start elsewhere and let that be known. It took awhile for the trade market to show itself and the Bulls shopped to find the best return.

Lastly, Markkanen was a young 7’0 shooter with some above average ball skills and mobility. That package in itself is significantly more valuable than an undersized combo guard that does most of his damage inside the arc on volume.

It’s really apples to oranges. It’s hard to find what Lauri brings on the open market. He’s unique. It’s not too hard to find what Sexton does, even if Sexton is young and does it better than many of the alternatives.

I remember bring up Lauri as a possible full MLE option after the Cavs struck out with all their targets last offseason. No one on here even thought he was worth that. I think Lauri's situation is real unique because Nance asked out and the Cavs were scrambling to find 3pt shooting. They put together a package to get Lauri while getting a package that the Bulls liked while also getting Nance to a team he wanted to go to.

 

[Boobie4Three]

There's a reason most players negotiate an extension coming off a rookie contract and don't become RFAs. If a player is entering RFA, negotiations have already failed.

They should have came down a touch on their ask after his big season, before getting the let's wait and see approach from the F.O. An injury risk is always there and Collin was a wrecking ball.

 

[NMCav]

I remember bring up Lauri as a possible full MLE option after the Cavs struck out with all their targets last offseason. No one on here even thought he was worth that. I think Lauri's situation is real unique because Nance asked out and the Cavs were scrambling to find 3pt shooting. They put together a package to get Lauri while getting a package that the Bulls liked while also getting Nance to a team he wanted to go to.

Other way around. Blazers and Bulls had discussed Lauri Markkanen for Derrick Jones and a lottery protected first. But Bulls wanted Blazers to add a 2nd round pick to the deal. When Blazers said no they had to expand the trade to include the Cavaliers. I'm not sure Cavaliers asked Nance if he wanted to go to Portland or just sent him to what appeared to be a contender.

 

[inliner311]

Other way around. Blazers and Bulls had discussed Lauri Markkanen for Derrick Jones and a lottery protected first. But Bulls wanted Blazers to add a 2nd round pick to the deal. When Blazers said no they had to expand the trade to include the Cavaliers. I'm not sure Cavaliers asked Nance if he wanted to go to Portland or just sent him to what appeared to be a contender.

Koby definitely said that they helped Nance go to one of his preferred destinations. I always assumed that Nance was the player to start the discussion but it makes sense that Derrick Jones and the pick was discussed first, that part of the trade never really made sense to me. Your timeline makes thing make sense more. If the Cavs were the ones brought into make a deal work then they couldn't dictate the terms as much.

 

[buzzdog]

People are forgetting that there is also injury insurance for things like this....

If taking the QO gives him a good chance of getting 3yr/$60M ($67.5M total) next year, he's not just going to take a 4yr/$50M this year.

Two words... Nerlens Noel.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Two words... Nerlens Noel.

Two words... Greg Munroe...

Since there is a back and forth here, to summarize:

+ Sexton would eventually accept something like 3 yr $55M, if nothing else comes his way (maybe $50M, maybe $60M, but something in that ballpark).

+ Sexton would play on the qualifying offer rather than take a contract like 3yr $36M --- the EV on his future contract is just way, way, higher than that.

+ I don't know whether he would take insurance out on his future contract or not -- but that is a thing that exists, and it would probably cost him about $3M, give or take, to ensure that he receives at least $60M in case of injury. That is consistent with both the actual probability that he has a career ending injury, as well as what previous athlete insurance polices have looked like.

+ A lot of people don't understand how insurance works, including (1) $60M in insurance is absolutely nothing to a large insurance company, (2) many more things (including athletes) are insured than you realize, (3) the margins are much smaller on individual contracts than you realize, insurance companies win by having lots of clients with small margins, not by demanding outrageous margins like $10M for a $60M contract.

 

[cavsfever]

The only way an insurance company is going to write Sexton a guaranteed contract for $60 million in exchange for a consideration of a few million is if said insurance company owns a basketball team and Sexton agrees to play for it on this $60 million contract

Even then no because $60 million exceeds his market value…

 

[Derek]

Nobody in their right mind is going to insure Sexton for a contract offer he can’t get right now.

If, hypothetically, he’s turning down 3/36 to take the QO, maybe he could get insured up to 36. I doubt even that without an insanely hefty premium.

Regardless, he’d likely only be able to collect on that in the case that he had a career ending injury, and never played professionally again. See Anthony Kim.

 

[Lyuokdea]

The only way an insurance company is going to write Sexton a guaranteed contract for $60 million in exchange for a consideration of a few million is if said insurance company owns a basketball team and Sexton agrees to play for it on this $60 million contract

Even then no because $60 million exceeds his market value…

It's not $60M on the next contract - it's $60M in lifetime earnings... that is way way below his expectation.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Regardless, he’d likely only be able to collect on that in the case that he had a career ending injury, and never played professionally again. See Anthony Kim.

Exactly, many athletes have these (you just don't hear about them unless they are used). This gives athletes considerable freedom to take things like QOs if a team is low-balling a long-term offer.