THE Trade
THE Financials
There are a talent component and a financial component, and both are drivers for this deal.
The apron era has forced teams to be quicker in their decision making in that they literally, and figuratively, cannot afford to wait around. Teams can spend time, and money, in the apron era when play and production permit. But when play and production don’t align with the finances, apron penalties and restrictions have forced teams to be more critical what and on who they’re spending money on.
The financial component: With this move it saves the Cavs $6.9M in salary plus an additional $40M in tax payments this year. The Cavs save $6,897,984 this year, and $10,101,514 next year on paper. They also take $1.25M in unlikely to be earned (ULTBE) incentives off their apron calculations due to Hunter’s $1.25M linked to $1M tied to winning a DPOY and $250k tied to 70+ regular season games and a Finals appearance.
Two-way contracts do not count against the salary cap so the swap of Emmanuel Miller with Luke Travers being waived does not impact any financial standing.
The $6.9M saved this year puts the Cavs at $13,862,176 above the 2nd Apron with 15 rosters spots, and all three-two-way slots filled.
The $10.1M saved next year puts the Cavs about $5.9M over the 2nd Apron. However, with Dean Wade and now Keon Ellis as pending free agents, that number can easily creep back up to the $22M number it was this year.
We explored what a new Wade deal could look like, and the results were in the $7M-$10M AAV range. With Ellis, the maximum they could re-sign him for is a 3-year, $52M deal and he is extension eligible beginning February 9.
Just in putting the math together, the $10.1M saved next year is less “saved” and more turning Hunter’s 2025-2026 salary into two players instead of one.
What the Cavs financials look like right now are likely to change between now and 3PM on Thursday. While Governor Dan Gilbert has always been one to pay, there are limits for any owner and if $10M is not playing or contributing (*cough* Lonzo Ball) then there’s better ways to reallocate those funds.
This puts the Cavs closer to the 1st Apron threshold which there’s two benefits of – transactional flexibility and pick retention.
If the Cavs finish the 2025-2026 season over the 2nd Apron, their 2033 1st Round pick would be frozen. This means they cannot trade it under any circumstance. To unfreeze it, they would need to spend at least three of the next four years under the 2nd Apron. If not, it stays frozen and would be automatically placed as the last pick in the 1st Round. If the Cavs can get under the 2nd Apron, they can delay that pick clock and keep their ability to trade their 2033 1st Round pick this summer (which could be a big summer).
However, for the Cavs to aggregate, or combine salaries to match an incoming salary or multiple salaries, they have to address the $13.9M they’re over the 2nd Apron either by taking back at least $13.9M less within a deal or completing a separate deal to offload $13.9M and stay under the 2nd Apron in any corresponding deals.
The $13.9M is not a small number but it’s more manageable to work with than $22M.
Nae’Qwan Tomlin is still on a two-way deal with just a hand full of game eligibility remaining. If the Cavs want him to continue playing this year, and be playoff eligible, they will need to convert him to a standard contract. Since the Cavs do not have access to any signing exceptions being in the 2nd Apron, the only contract the Cavs can sign Tomlin to is a minimum contract which has a two-year term limit.
Now, here’s the interesting part: The Cavs could elect to sign him to a two-year deal, with it being prorated this year to somewhere in the $700K range this year and in the $2.1M range next year. The benefit of that arrangement is the Cavs get a lower cap hit next year as it would be based off a 5% raise of the minimum this year. As the cap continues to rise and minimum salaries do as well, the minimum salary for a player of Tomlin’s level could be in the $2.4M range next year. So, by locking in Tomlin early, they could see a $300k in savings next year which. And if they’re trying to cut corners for the 2nd Apron, every dollar counts.
On the flipside, after the expiration of this year, the Cavs would have Tomlin’s early bird rights. That means they’re able to re-sign him exceeding any threshold so long as they’re not hard capped. However, like Ty Jerome last offseason, there is a limit to what they could pay him – either 175% of his prior year’s salary or 105% of the prior season’s league-average salary. The deal would have to be a minimum of two-years but could be a maximum of four years. But in doing this, they would have Tomlin locked up long-term, potentially at a cheaper rate, then they would by waiting to re-sign him after next year.
So, the Cavs could elect to get a cheaper rate in 2026-2027 or they could wait, pay more in 2026-2027 but get a longer term deal out of it.
THE Assets
To entice the Chicago Bulls for taking on Dario Saric’s salary, the Kings and Cavs both had to throw in a future 2nd Round pick to make it worth their while. For the Cavs, they handed over their 2027 2nd Round pick via Denver. This leaves the Cavs with just three future 2nd Round picks, and just two after the 2026 Draft. If the Cavs wanted to buy a draft pick, they would have to be below the 2nd Apron otherwise they cannot send out cash in a trade.
As a result of the $6.9M difference in the salary the Cavs sent out and they took back, they created a Traded Player Exception (TPE) for $6.9M. A TPE essentially functions as a gift card – good from one year of its creation (1/31/27) and can be used it until it runs out with any combination of players not to exceed $6.9M. There are no limits on how it can be broken up it just can’ t be within the same transaction as other players or picks. 1st and 2nd Apron teams cannot use previously created TPE’s, of which the Cavs have two, but they can use TPE’s created within the current year. While it seems that the Cavs are trying to cut salary and not add it, it does provide a tool in case the Cavs need flexibility through the end of this league year to utilize $6.9M worth of space.
THE Fit
So why did the Cavs do this trade? Why move on from De’Andre Hunter in just about a year’s time?
To start: The reason for how the Cavs intended to use Hunter shifted in a way they didn’t originally intend for.
The purpose of Hunter was the final piece between the core. A talented scorer who could occupy big wings in the playoffs, make them work on that defense, and be an elite spot-up shooter while also possessing the size, length and strength needed to defend wings in isolation settings. Good in theory, but that’s what it stayed… a theory. Mostly due to injuries, Hunter played in just 96 minutes with the Core Four in 78 playoff and regular season games. They posted a +24.3 net rating in those minutes.
Injuries didn’t allow for a regular training camp or regular start to the season even though a Max Strus injury paved the way for Hunter to claim the starting role with relative ease. Instead, shuffling in between the starting lineup and bench, Hunter never quite got settled as the Cavs shuffled through lineups to accommodate whichever roster combination was healthy that evening.
As health provided more opportunities for others, Hunter’s minute distribution changed. Instead of being the big wing who could scale up lineups when needed, he instead started to see most of his minutes at the 4 and occasionally slide down lineups when able to. This provided room for Jaylon Tyson to blossom, Sam Merrill to see his minutes and even Dean Wade stick around and find some at the 3. Of those four, Hunter was the one who defaulted to playing up.
Hunter played well at the PF spot this year, and better than he did at the SF spot. The Cavs had a +2.2 net points per 100 possessions at the PF compared to -2.1 at the SF spot. But his lack of defense and rebounding showed through more at the PF then he it did at the SF spot where he could be protected by length and shot blocking behind him. Instead, being a barely passable defender at the PF, a sometimes troublesome team defender and possessing sleepy off-ball awareness, was only amplified by the team’s lack of POA defense that left more pressure and more responsibility on Hunter – something that he is not well equipped to handle.
When Hunter was acquired, Nae’Qwan Tomlin was on a two-way, Sam Merrill was set to be a free agent, and Jaylon Tyson was still a rookie. Hunter now departs with Tomlin a part of the rotation and set to earn a standard contract, Merrill resigned to a long-term deal, Tyson emerging as one of the team’s best players, and Dean Wade still being Dean Wade. All within the span of 78 games. And that’s not counting the injured, and hopefully returning, Max Strus. Suddenly, the Cavs had too many players for not enough minutes and it forced Hunter further into a role not he was not originally intended for.
Part of being in the 2nd Apron is being conscious of return on investment. To start the year, Hunter was the 4th highest paid Cavalier. Halfway through the season, after dealing with quite the shooting slump, Hunter’s TS% of 55.3% is the third worst of his career, his 28.4 free-throw rate is the 3rd lowest of his career, his 11.6% TOV% is the second highest of his career and his BPM of -3.4 is the third lowest of his career. Those aren’t 4th highest paid player numbers let alone while in the 2nd Apron. For the price of Hunter ($23.3M), the Cavs can have Wade, Tyson, Merrill and Tomlin, and still have almost $5M to play with. That forced a decision.
If the Cavs are going to play Hunter (mostly) out of position, in a way that was unintended but organically forced by the growth of the roster, then is there a better way to spend the money?
That’s where Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis come in.
In transparency, swapping out Hunter for a big made more sense… or at least that was the hope. If they Cavs were going to ask Hunter to be a 4, why not go out and get a real 4? Strus is returning, Tyson has locked down the starting SF spot and Wade can float between forward spots as can Tomlin. Doing this allows the Cavs to play bigger across the board while addressing the Kevin Love sized hole left behind Allen and Mobley. It would not only have the chance to unlock Mobley and Allen with a viable, consistent partner who could provide rebounding and spacing (i.e. more 4-out looks) but provide a bigger safety net should Mobley or Allen get hurt, get into foul trouble or just be ineffective in certain settings. Instead…. they’ve put more on Allen and Mobley’s plate and took away some of their "help". A move could still be coming to address this issue but let’s go through what the fit looks like.
This means more Wade and Tomlin minutes up front with Allen and Mobley. The duo combined for about 61 minutes per game in the playoffs last year leaving about 35 minutes on the table. 23 for Wade and 12 for Tomlin sounds manageable, right?
Wade has managed to stay relevant in the rotation thanks to his ever-present versatility, rebounding (69th percentile in net dREB%), impact (6th in on/off at +2.4) and shot that has gotten hot of late (37.5% on 3’s since December 1). Despite more minutes at the PF spot this year (62nd percentile on/off), he’s been much better at the SF spot (96th percentile on/off). Although, pair him with Allen (+11.5 net rating) or Mobley (+11.6 net rating) and good things happen. So of course, more minutes ahead.
Tomlin has been a revelation (and relevant) thanks to an infectious energy that has brought a different feel to the rotation (in a good way). The Cavs were missing that last year with Tomlin, Tyson and others. Tomlin is still working on his shot (79% 3PAs come from corner 3s but just 23% 3P%) but his value comes in creating extra possessions (95th percentile oREB%) and disrupting them defensively (90th percentile BLK%, 71st percentile STL%). He’s yet to fully convert that to on/off impact but with an improved shot he could see things turn. Thus far, he’s turned a positive impact with Mobley (+5.5 net rating) rather than Allen (-5.2 net rating)
Wade being healthy (enough) and Tomlin’s emergence have the Cavs front office enough comfortability to move Hunter for a different need – point of attack defense and playmaking.
Start with Ellis. And don’t look at his numbers solely from this year.
Ellis has been caught in the Doug Christie rotational rigamaroll that saw him on the outside looking in despite a banner year last year. Instead, the Kings thought they were a Dennis Schroder and Russell Westbrook pairing away from competing at the point guard spot which in turn buried their former lottery pick Devin Carter. They also pushed their first-round pick Nique Clifford more as well. Sometimes a player is a victim of circumstance more than any individual doing -- that’s where this mostly falls.
But, about Ellis. He’s the definition of a pest – 94th percentile BLK%, 97th percentile STL%, and 98th percentile in deflections. He doesn’t rebound well (3rd percentile net dREB% this year, 21st percentile last year) and can foul a bit (30th and 20th percentile foul rate the last two years) due to his defensive aggression but he’s really good at it. He’s been above 61st percentile in defensive on/off all three years in Sacramento (which is saying something), has been tasked with usually the most difficult matchup (82nd percentile matchup difficulty rating) and is ranked 78th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, 73rd percentile in ball screen navigation and 93rd percentile in off-ball chaser defense. The bulk of his matchups tend to come against PGs and SGs with some SFs although his smaller frame (175lbs) may be an issue against bigger, stronger wings in the league. If the Cavs are going to ask Wade to play more 4 minutes, they needed someone else who could cover perimeter matchups when they arose – that’s Ellis.
Some will default and say this is just Isaac Okoro when maybe to some degree, but he does the one thing that would have kept Okoro here – shoot.
Ellis has shot 6.2 3PAs per 36 on 41.6% for his career compared to Okoro at 3.8 3PA per 36 on 35.1%. Ellis has also made 3+ 3PMs 37 times over 3,700 career minutes compared to Okoro hitting 3+ 3PMs just 25 times over 5,600 career minutes. Teams can live with a guy hitting 1-2 or shots even if it’s at a higher percentage because a low volume is tolerable. What teams don’t want to defend is high enough volume at relatively efficient rates or high volume at efficient rates. Ellis is middle of the ground volume wise but very efficient. The difference is Ellis can knock in a few threes easily; for Okoro, that was a stretch.
Like Okoro, Ellis isn’t going to provide much off the bounce – they’re near identical in USG% and TOV% and amount to low usage, low turnover, relatively uncreative offensive players. The core of their value comes from shooting the ball, but Ellis does provide a bit of a different dynamic in that he’s a pretty good finisher, something Okoro never mastered despite having the requisite athleticism to be a much better finisher than he was. Okoro has shot 64.7% inside 3’ while Ellis has shot 78% - a big swing. If Ellis isn’t getting his shots off spot-ups (45.6% frequency) then it’s coming in transition (24.8% frequency). It wasn’t at a high volume, but he had extremely efficient play type rates off cuts, off screens and as a handler in 2024-2025 so there’s some meat on the bone Kenny can look into to get more out of Ellis.
Schroder was brought in for the other role – playmaker.
They may be leaning more back into Ty Jerome but it’s because they didn’t expect Lonzo Ball to be that bad or Craig Porter Jr not ultimately to take the jump. Ball is Ball, and the offensive jump never quite came for CPJ in the 16-game audition he had as the backup PG spot – 4.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists on 38.5 FG%, 33.3% 3P% with 1 steal and .8 blocks.
It’s a shame because Porter Jr has all the defensive ability to make the pairings work with Mitchell and Garland, and supplement them in the ways they lack, but his offensive never came around to the extent it needed to. He’s shown to be an aggressive driver at times that can create kick outs and dump offs out but it requires him to be aggressive (which doesn’t always happen). His ability to create off the bounce and use his athleticism to his advantage is one of his elite skills but he hasn’t done it enough -- his points, shots and usage are all down year over year and are at career lows. There’s also a certain refinement and feel for the position that has usually required Mitchell, Ball or Garland to be paired with him and not many minutes left for himself. His passing and ability to create is like a QB who needs to have defined reads and looks schemed open as opposed to a QB who can move safeties with his eyes and create windows that aren’t there. They both can be successful, but they create and require different structure. With Garland’s toe injuries present and more point-Mitchell then the Cavs wanted, the a better, more consistent engine is needed to power this team's offense.
The Cavs have gotten better of late at 2Q scoring (5th in ORTG over last 15 games) but still rank 19th in ORTG for the year. Compare that to 2nd in 2Q scoring last year, and it’s a big drop off. Seeing as though the 2Q is primarily a bench quarter with some starters staying on but the start and 75% of the quarter being handled by reserves, it’s a pretty good indicator of how a bench unit is performing. Lack of shot making and shuffling in and out of lineups hasn’t helped the bench but there also hasn’t been a consistent bench playmaking presence the Cavs have been able to rely upon either.
On the year, the Cavs are 22nd in bench scoring. The superpower of last year’s team was the ability of the bench to extend leads, and erase deficits without the starters expending energy to do that. It kept starters fresher and created an advantage not many teams had.
For his career, Schroder has been a playmaking, bench scoring mercenary. He’s brought 42.7/34.3/80.8 splits off the bench with 11.5 points and 3.8 assist per game. Paired with a 28.1% AST% on 24.3% USG% and 14.6% TOV% and you can see this is player who operates with ball in his hands a high amount and is able to convert that into points for others. CraftedNBA has a passer rating that looks at the quality of a player’s passing and Schroder ranks 93rd percentile. Look at creation, or the number of open shots created, and it’s 90th percentile.
Schroder’s drive data is good – 10.1 drives per game, and 40.3 pass% off those drives. He’s 15th in drives per game for players under 30 minutes per game, and more than doubles Porter Jr’s drives per game (4.6).
Schroder’s passing and playmaking is consistent, but his scoring is a different story. He tends to operate best out of isolation (53.9% TS%, 0.11 rPPP) and less as a P&R handler (49.4% TS%, rPPP -0.08) but can also play off the ball a bit next to a Mitchell or Garland (55.3% TS%, rPPP 0.02 in spot ups). For the year, he’s a rTS of -4.8 (or TS% 4.8% less than the league average) with a preference to operate in the mid-range and struggles finishing around the rim (57.4% rim FG%). Sound like any former Cavalier you know? *cough Caris LeVert*
If Schroder brings his playmaking and occasional scoring swings, the other stuff can be tolerable-ish. He’s not as good defensively as you would hope for --- low steals (33rd percentile), low blocks (33rd percentile), just okay rebounder (net dREB% of 47th percentile) and his net defensive metrics are 44th and 29th percentile the last two years. He’s 6’1” with a 6’8” wingspan yet his metrics are middle of the road at very best. Get him in front of Mobley and Allen and that may change some, and so might playing for a former coach in Kenny Atkinson, but just like De’Andre Hunter, there might be a hope he’s more of something that he may not be.
THE Next Step
There must be something next, right?
1. The books
First is cleaning up some of the remaining cap situations. Lonzo Ball looks to be on his first ticket out of town so long as the Cavs can figure out which team will charge the least for renting their cap space. The Cavs only have three future 2nd Round picks to offer and will likely be mindful of how they use them. With now Garland and Schroder on the roster, and Proctor recently drafted, it could open an opportunity to move off Porter Jr instead of a 2nd to preserve future assets to grease the skids for a Ball deal. By moving Ball, and creating a TPE in return, the Cavs would save $10M and get their liability down to $3.8M. Brooklyn, Utah and Washington are all teams in that line of business to eat cap space for assets. Maybe Charlotte, and Milwaukee will be too.
The Cavs could look to move off one of Thomas Bryant or Larry Nance Jr to make room for a Tomlin conversion or just other moves. Bryant has been manageable in spot minutes and added a dimension of shooting while Nance looks like his best days may be really behind him. If the Cavs bought out or waived either, they still would be responsible for their salaries. The only way to remove their cap hit is by trading.
If the Cavs want to get all the way down under the 2nd Apron, they’ll need to make a bigger move – either Wade, Strus or something else, or take back less money as part of a bigger deal.
If the Cavs want to convert Tomlin, they’ll need to open a roster space and be mindful of his ~$700K if they’re trying to fit that under any apron.
2. The roster
A wide-open East, a President of Basketball Operations that may be feeling the heat, and a franchise player with options in the summer could mean anything.
There’s some chatter Max Strus could be on the move as the Cavs look to cut further salaries and/or re-balance the roster some. Strus has yet to play this season but figures to be in the mix post All-Star break. The Cavs were not going to be able to afford both Hunter and Strus long-term, as they had competing salaries and competing positions that made $40M between the two untenable if they wanted to maintain financially sound. And now with taking on long-term money that extends past Hunter’s old deal (although it is partially guaranteed), it could be a signal that Strus is now the one that goes out to afford other moves.
It would be a surprise if the Cavs move on from Strus now – how much value does a player who’s been hurt the past two years, hasn’t played this year and has 1.5 years left on his deal really have? The Daniel Gafford’s, Obi Toppin’s, Grant Williams’s, Kelly Olynyk’s and Derick Jones Jr’s are likely the types of names that could be obtainable.
Rebalancing of some sort could impact the front court where Wade has performed better at SF (96th percentile) than PF (62nd percentile), and more insurance for Mobley and Allen is needed. Bobby Portis, Day’Ron Sharpe, Goga Bitadze, and Nick Richards are all names that are likely to be on the trade market that make sense in some capacity.
Then there’s big game hunting. Do they put in a bid for Giannis? How much do they break down the core four before the stretch run? It’ll be interesting to watch and rumors are already out there. With Dan Gilbert, anything is possible.
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