Deshaun Watson Off the Field Thread v3: 11 games, $5M

[southernflyer]

So was Watson's camp trial balloon of 8 games/ $5 million their highest offer which they would agree to, or more to get the league off their year demand down to their highest acceptance at ten games? A full year you might as well fight while sitting out the last two preseason and six games. That's eight plus weeks of letting the situation work itself out, or at least keep pressure on the league through a federal appeal. Harvey can only go by the evidence presented to Sue, but a federal appeals court wouldn't be bound by only that evidence. I still think the NFLPA wants to go hard on this to negate future Goodell guys "independent" rulings if it is a year/indefinite.

 

[HammerGold]

NFL should settle for 10 games and a significant fine. It's a very harsh punishment based on precedent (yes precedent matters,) the fine especially would be unprecedented. Of course the media hacks are going to go crazy but that's how they generate outrage and attention for their articles. Doesn't change the fact its a harsh punishment and a significant increase from the independent arbiters ruling.

 

[CBBI]

So was Watson's camp trial balloon of 8 games/ $5 million their highest offer which they would agree to, or more to get the league off their year demand down to their highest acceptance at ten games? A full year you might as well fight while sitting out the last two preseason and six games. That's eight plus weeks of letting the situation work itself out, or at least keep pressure on the league through a federal appeal. Harvey can only go by the evidence presented to Sue, but a federal appeals court wouldn't be bound by only that evidence. I still think the NFLPA wants to go hard on this to negate future Goodell guys "independent" rulings if it is a year/indefinite.

I agree with this that the NFLPA wants to bend as little as possible, but at the same time there's pretty significant financial incentive for Watson to accept literally anything that isn't the whole season to keep his contract from tolling.

If the NFL says 12 games and a massive fine, it feels like Watson is ultimately going to end taking it just to have his contract one year closer to being up so he can sign the next contract.

 

[Lee]

The orchestrated interview with Aditi is a key component. Concession, contrition, penance, and therapy suddenly and finally discussed.
It's no coincidence, a deal has been struck.

What do you think they do to celebrate the new deal? Get massages?

 

[KCOTT]

looks like we're on pace for 748,453 massage jokes this year

 

[macbdog]

What do you think they do to celebrate the new deal? Get massages?

To show he has learned his lesson, DeShaun schedules the massages at Love Ranch in Nevada; "I will only seek 'happy endings' from licensed professionals from now on" said Watson.

 

[CuriousMinds]

To show he has learned his lesson, DeShaun schedules the massages at Love Ranch in Nevada; "I will only seek 'happy endings' from licensed professionals from now on" said Watson.

Ah the love ranch, Eric the actor lost his virginity there. Air Force Amy was the victim.

I love u Eric

 

[texascavsfan]

looks like we're on pace for 748,453 massage jokes this year

Your comment really rubs me the wrong way, let's make that 748,454

 

[CBBI]

"Specifically in late July, prior to Robinson’s ruling. Days before that decision came down, the divide between Watson and the NFLPA and the NFL was simple. The quarterback and his camp were focusing on a smaller suspension and fine in the area of eight games and $3 million to $5 million. Conversely, the NFL had been spitballing a possible settlement in the range of 12 games and nearly $10 million."

 

[CBBI]

"Appeals officer Peter Harvey continues to delay his decision in the Deshaun Watson case, apparently not because he’s undecided or procrastinating. Harvey is believed to be waiting to see whether the league and Watson can work out a deal.

The possibility of settlement remains viable, we’re told. Currently, it could go either way. As such things usually do. But this one truly falls into the toss-up category. We’ll wait and see if the NFL and Watson can find a middle ground."

 

[Benway]

"Appeals officer Peter Harvey continues to delay his decision in the Deshaun Watson case, apparently not because he’s undecided or procrastinating. Harvey is believed to be waiting to see whether the league and Watson can work out a deal.

The possibility of settlement remains viable, we’re told. Currently, it could go either way. As such things usually do. But this one truly falls into the toss-up category. We’ll wait and see if the NFL and Watson can find a middle ground."

And of course, they use a photo of him holding a li'l towel.

 

[CBBI]

Taking all fandom out of it, if Deshaun Watson is willing to pay $5M for his contract to not toll, it would be an absolute cataclysmic financial error for him to not pay an additional $5M to ensure his contract doesn't toll.

There's no scenario for Watson financially speaking, even if the NFL says $0 fine, where a year suspension with his contract tolling is going to be better for him financially than having this season count.

 

[CBBI]

For argument's sake, let's say Watson's two options are 1-year suspension and $0 fine and 10-game suspension and $10M fine. We're removing his $44.965M signing bonus as that's already been paid out.

Money Earned on 1-Year Suspension
2022: $0
2023: $1.035
2024: $46M
2025: $46M
2026: $46M
2027: $46M
2028: Free Agent

Money Earned on 10-game Suspension
2022: Negative $9.57M
2023: $46M
2024: $46M
2025: $46M
2026: $46M
2027: Free Agent

Paying the $10M fine is absolutely worth it for Watson to get to the end of his current contract and the start of his next contract a year sooner.

The only way it wouldn't be worth it financially for Watson would be if his on-field play somehow fell off the map so badly between now and 2027 and that he'd basically be unwanted in 2027 going into his age 31 season.

 

[chrisrich91]

Taking all fandom out of it, if Deshaun Watson is willing to pay $5M for his contract to not toll, it would be an absolute cataclysmic financial error for him to not pay an additional $5M to ensure his contract doesn't toll.

There's no scenario for Watson financially speaking, even if the NFL says $0 fine, where a year suspension with his contract tolling is going to be better for him financially than having this season count.

Exactly.

There’s a fine line between negotiating for the best possible deal and overplaying your hand.

Watson’s camp hasn’t really inspired much confidence in me to this point with their decision making. I hope they tread lightly on this one.

To your point, if you’re willing to pay $5M to put this all behind you, you should be willing to pay $10M. Realize that your only “leverage” is the NFL’s preference not to waste time and money on a lawsuit. That’s not exactly pocket aces.

I feel like 10 games and $10M should be the goal and would be considered a gigantic win for Watson.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'd be surprised if this settled before the parties were aware of Harvey's decision. It's basically in the same posture that it was before Robinson's decision, when Watson's camp rejected the NFL demands. And Robinson's decision only helped Watson. So why take a deal now that you weren't willing to take before?

It may be the Harvey will let the parties know before it becomes public, and they'll negotiate then. Doesn't make sense for Watson's team to back down before then.