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Draft Lottery Reform Idea

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kevin02

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Instead of putting the first few picks through the lottery and letting all the other teams fall into place, what if they divided it into tiers. Now the obvious issue would be that teams would start tanking to get into the next tier but here's how you could avoid that:

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The Top 3 Lottery

Each tier would receive one top 3 pick. This would be determined in an initial lottery drawing where, starting with the 1st pick, each tier has an equal chance of receiving it. This is repeated 3 times until each tier has been assigned it's top three pick.
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The Tier Lottery

From this point, an additional drawing takes place in each of the three tiers where each team has an equal shot at attaining their groups assigned top 3 pick. Once a team has been selected, the other teams all fall into place based on record. An example of how this works can be seen in the table below.
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Teams: Worst Record - T1 - T2 - T3 - T4 - T5 - T6 - T7 - T8 - T9 - T10 - T11 - T12 - T13 - T14 - Best Record
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Tier 1

Team | Top 3 Odds | Other Picks

T1 | 25% | [4]
T2 | 25% | [4,5]
T3 | 25% | [5,6]
T4 | 25% | [6]
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Tier 2

Team | Top 3 Odds | Other Picks

T5 | 20% | [7]
T6 | 20% | [7,8]
T7 | 20% | [8,9]
T8 | 20% | [9,10]
T9 | 20% | [10]
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Tier 3

Team | Top 3 Odds | Other Picks

T10| 20% | [11]
T11| 20% | [11,12]
T12| 20% | [12,13]
T13| 20% | [13,14]
T14| 20% | [14]
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Why this works

Every team in the lottery, regardless of their record, is guaranteed at least a 20% chance at a top three pick. While in other draft lottery proposals this could lead to an unbalanced league where the bad teams are unable to improve, in this case, every team is also promised a pick no worse than 3 spots lower then where they finished in the standings.

If you're a team performing below expectations in tier 2, then maybe it still sounds appealing to drop down to tier 1 by resting your best players down the stretch. While this may still be a valid strategy since it improves your odds of a top 3 pick by 5% and also improves your worst case scenario, it's less likely a GM would feel pressured into doing this because of the possibility that their tier could end up with the better top 3 pick. This becomes even more of a consideration when the upcoming draft has a single generational talent. Why bother *Riggin' for Wiggins* when each tier has an equal one and three chance of obtaining him anyways.

Finally, this solution also help solve the problem of small market teams stuck in mediocrity having no means of getting better. One of those teams each year would have the opportunity to draft a top 3 player and potentially take the next step. This of course could still result in those same teams tanking to fall out of the playoffs to give themselves a shot at that pick. However, if your a team fighting for spots T13 through T15, it would be a much harder sell to the players and the fan base to start resting players down the stretch for just a 1 in 5 chance of getting the pick. Especially when the alternative in this case is the 13th or 14th pick.
 
It doesn't really have anything to do with that. I think the new Lottery rules are an improvement but still suffer from a lot of the same flaws as the previous rules and doesn't do that much in terms of ending tanking. My version is much better in my opinion.

I'm really sorry, but I think I'm misunderstanding what you mean...

Are you suggesting the NBA tries to use a lottery reform similar to the one you suggested? Or maybe it's just a fleeting idea?

Regardless or what happens, what probabilities are used to assign draft picks among the 14 non-playoff teams... there's always a chance the unexpected team gets the #1 pick (like Orlando getting the #1 in 1992 and 1993).

The NBA decided to go through with this change regardless. Nothing's going to change that at this point...
 
I'm really sorry, but I think I'm misunderstanding what you mean...

Are you suggesting the NBA tries to use a lottery reform similar to the one you suggested? Or maybe it's just a fleeting idea?

Regardless or what happens, what probabilities are used to assign draft picks among the 14 non-playoff teams... there's always a chance the unexpected team gets the #1 pick (like Orlando getting the #1 in 1992 and 1993).

The NBA decided to go through with this change regardless. Nothing's going to change that at this point...

Yeah man, it's just a random thought I came up with since tanking is consistently a problem across multiple sports leagues. I'm not really trying to apply it to what the NBA is currently is doing it's just something I think would be better since it greatly eliminates the incentive to to tank for better draft odds while also ensuring that the worst teams still get higher picks on average.
 

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