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Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

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Hentges is no longer a starter. He will get a shot at being a back end reliever.

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Things won't have gone wrong if one of Battenfield, Myers, or Pilkington pass up Morgan. Just as things didn't go wrong when Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, and Plesac passed Plutko, Merritt, and Morimando.

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Under no realistic circumstances would I trade Plesac for two unproven prospects. The drop off from a SP who produces at a level 15% above average to one who pitches at a level 18% below average is too severe.

While we see room to grow for Morgan, who turns 26 in May, why don't folks see room for growth from Plesac, whose 27th birthday is today? Its not like we are talking about a three or four year age difference.

As pointed out earlier, we saw tons of growth from Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, Lee, and Bauer after they turned 27.
Dammit CATS I'm befuddled. I can't disagree with anything you said here. lol

I have more faith in the SP depth so I'd have to see the "two unproven prospects" before I said no. An argument against that is valid though as I'm aware of the risk of such a move.
 
@sportscoach I like your idea of targeting Hayes. I just don't want to give up Battenfield in such a deal. Do you think Jones and maybe Burns could get it done? I like Burns too, but he's a little further away and that might suit Baltimore. Watcha think?

My ideal corner OF additions would be Hays and Thomas. Both are just coming into their own offensively and play good defense. Would you quit pussyfooting around and make it happen already? lol
 
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Shouldn't put myself in the middle of this argument but I was going to point out Morgan's sub-100 t/sOPS+ the other day in his last 2 months. He seemed to be settling down into a groove and as you pointed out some numbers looked good in comparison to other pitchers.

Yet, I try to hold my judgement for a full-year plus some stats as pitchers and hitters adapt to each other. I can also point out the Tomlin had a 1.247 WHIP in year 1 and 1.077 in year 2. He also had a SO/K in year 1 of 2.26 compared to 3.68 for Morgan but was up to 4.23 SO/K in year 2. At that rate, he was on track to become an ACE (sarcasm) but sometimes, the eyes are more reliable than stats (this coming from someone who liked stats in school). As the saying goes, figures lie and liars figure.

It will be interesting to see what he does but for me, I still see him as a #4/#5 starter for a middle of road team which isn't a slight (as he made the show). I wouldn't normally have a problem with him being our #5 like Tomlin was as he can put up decent numbers. In Aug and Sept (taking out a disastrous May start), BAA .238 and ERA around 4.2 (but K/W ratio dipped to 2.8). And the competition was not just bottom feeders who brought up scrubs after trade deadline to pad his numbers (Tor, Detx2, Oak, Min, Tex x2, CHWS, NYY, BOSx2, Mil)

However, for our team, he is just going to be the bottom of rotation starter who is going to ultimately get bumped as the new shinny prospect is ready for an extended look see. Unless he turns into a Maddox or Glavin, he is not going to survive the desire to find next gem when we may have our next TOR starter waiting for some time to shine. Can he stay in our rotation and become more of a placeholder without a shiny pedigree? Bieber found a way (with some extra mph on FB) ... so anything can happen. But, with a 90.5 mph average on his 4-seamer last year and being 26 in May, he needs to focus on his pinpoint control and deception to survive. However, in 2023/24 when we want someone with a little extra umph to come in from the bullpen in playoffs (as we go with just 3/4 starters in playoffs like I think Clevinger did in 2016 for us), Morgan is not that guy.

Are we going to really hold back the following prospects
2022 - This year, I see him as the main #6 but Morris may get a few starts or relief appearances and we have Myers
2023 - Battenfield, Pilkington and Allen Jr
2024 - Espino, Curry, Gaddis, Burns, Cantillo, Hankins
2025 - Wolf, Torres, Williams, Mace, Nikhazy

That's 16 relatively high prospects (even leaving out Vargas - bullpen future and Hickman (Morgan lite). 8 will flame out or be injured ... few more may not beat out Morgan ... But, will we be willing to have a 4+ ERA, soft tossing righty when we have a few high pedigree, mid-high 90 fastballers. As I said, a few/many of our pitchers will be moved to the pen, after they flame out as starters. Yet, you always give them a look because their potential upside is worth a few bad starts to make sure. And, this also assumes that we don't draft or trade for another pitcher when we deal someone like Rosario at a trade deadline.

I feel sorry for him but look how many pitchers bit the dust this 40 man time around (Mejia, Garza - resigned, Moss, ....). Next time, we have to add Battenfield, Hankins, Torres and Miko/Ramirez. I can see Myers, Morgan, Allen Sr and Hentges on the block to be cut for the next shinny prospect. Who knows by July, he can gets us the next Straw in a deal. This is his year to show something, I just wouldn't bet on him being here in 2 years.
meh... the jumping in part is overrated anyway....

but.. let's get to the real subject.. Eli Morgan.. It's an agreed to axiom that getting to the major leagues is the toughest goal to achieve in all of the major sports... but the truth is.. it's the toughest to remain.. and that especially includes MOR/BOR SP's. Eli Morgan has a killer combination of a fastball that sits in the low 90's that he likes to keep up in the zone and a change up that comes out of the same tunnel..about six to eight feet shorter..

Think about that.. you're a hitter.. in the box.. and some wiseass 26 year old is throwing two pitches that come out of the same tunnel.. the same arm action.. but one doesn't arrive for another six to eight feet.. or until after your bat is back in the bat rack and you have another K for your efforts???.. That's what Eli Morgan does.. He also has a slider and a curve ball..

last year.. BOTH OF THEM SUCKED..

The curve ball sucked because he couldn't throw if for strikes.. & ML hitters just spit on it.. There is no doubt in my mind that Eli Morgan can work his curveball into a plus offering..i.e. the command and control component of pitching...that's what he excells at..

The slider is a horse of a different color.. It sucked because it had the shape of an old American Legion Hanging Spinner that had a banner trailing that said ".. hit me hard.." The shape of his slide piece was too gently sloped at 2 to 8 o'clock. and that's one that gets hammered regardless of where in the zone or just out of the zone Eli put it. As the season wore on.. the shape of his slider tightened up, but only a little... That's what Eli needs to do to achieve the "toughest" thing in ML Baseball.. i.e. stay there..

Perhaps Jup can comment on Eli's spin rates and pitch shapes..primarily for his breaking pitches.. It's what I think is thee biggest thing missing from him being a long term resident in the Guardians Rotation..

At the end of the day.. he must fix either / both of his breaking balls (slider/curve) if he wants to stay on this team...

If he doesn't.. then the goal posts change for him..and not as a bullpen guy.. It will be like Plutko and his current gig in the far east..
 
Doesn't make your thumb a good nail head, either.. but that would take looking at a deal from more than one narrow point of view.. which you have done.. context matters..
Context was my apparently completely unclear point in regard to valuations (equating BTV to the tool—hammer).

What is the narrow POV?
 
One team that would be a natural fit for Arias is Colorado. They look set with good, younger players at 2B and 3B, but really have no legitimate SS...and none in the system within two years of MLB.

The problem...and its a big one...is that the Rox have nobody that we realistically want...or that they realistically are willing to trade.

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An overall problem for us on the forum...as we speculate, debate, argue, and beat dead horses, all in fun...is that several teams that would seemingly make good trade partners are floating between deciding whether to contend, retrench, or rebuild.

What exactly are the Cubs and Reds doing, anyway?

Bimbo (I think) alluded to this weeks ago, that several teams that the FO has had conversations with are waiting until after the lockout to decide what they want to do.

Another problem is that there are teams going nowhere that could use about any prospect we have, but have almost nobody of interest to us. Colorado and Washington are two.

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I know that CDAV45 (sorry, buddy) and others like Lane Thomas, but he sure looks like a one hit wonder, if you look closely at his entire body of work. And besides, we are talking about basically a league average hitter that plays left field, whose track record and trend lines dont suggest much upside.

Check his wRC+ at every year/level in which he has had at least 100 PAs. Overall, they are quite pedestrian.

Since he bats RH, compare his numbers at every age and level to Luplow.

Then compare his numbers to Palacios and Kwan. All three look like Babe Ruth compared to Thomas.

Is Thomas an improvement over Mercado? Sure. But IMO we aren't looking for merely an improvement at the 4th OF spot.

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One one hand, this lockout has gummed up the works, esp for a FO known to proceed with diligence and caution. But on the other hand (looking for a possible silver lining), it also gives the org a better idea of (1) if and when Blitzer will be coming on board, and (2) what exactly that might mean for the 2022 financial situation.
 
@sportscoach I like your idea of targeting Hayes. I just don't want to give up Battenfield in such a deal. Do you think Jones and maybe Burns could get it done? I like Burns too, but he's a little further away and that might suit Baltimore. Watcha think?

My ideal corner OF additions would be Hays and Thomas. Both are just coming into their own offensively and play good defense. Would you quit pussyfooting around and make it happen already? lol

I think Orioles will want a SP from us in the deal and I just went by BTV values and went with the lowest rated of the guys in a sense...

I think it's an overpay, but I doubt Orioles give him up without one...
 
I think Orioles will want a SP from us in the deal and I just went by BTV values and went with the lowest rated of the guys in a sense...

I think it's an overpay, but I doubt Orioles give him up without one...
I think Burns would fit their needs nicely and he's ready for AA in 22. I'd give Williams up for Hays as well, but I'd try to convince them with Burns first.
 
I think Burns would fit their needs nicely and he's ready for AA in 22. I'd give Williams up for Hays as well, but I'd try to convince them with Burns first.

What is Thomas' price though?

And I don't think Hays is worth nearly that much...
 
One team that would be a natural fit for Arias is Colorado. They look set with good, younger players at 2B and 3B, but really have no legitimate SS...and none in the system within two years of MLB.

The problem...and its a big one...is that the Rox have nobody that we realistically want...or that they realistically are willing to trade.

*******

An overall problem for us on the forum...as we speculate, debate, argue, and beat dead horses, all in fun...is that several teams that would seemingly make good trade partners are floating between deciding whether to contend, retrench, or rebuild.

What exactly are the Cubs and Reds doing, anyway?

Bimbo (I think) alluded to this weeks ago, that several teams that the FO has had conversations with are waiting until after the lockout to decide what they want to do.

Another problem is that there are teams going nowhere that could use about any prospect we have, but have almost nobody of interest to us. Colorado and Washington are two.

***********

I know that CDAV45 (sorry, buddy) and others like Lane Thomas, but he sure looks like a one hit wonder, if you look closely at his entire body of work. And besides, we are talking about basically a league average hitter that plays left field, whose track record and trend lines dont suggest much upside.

Check his wRC+ at every year/level in which he has had at least 100 PAs. Overall, they are quite pedestrian.

Since he bats RH, compare his numbers at every age and level to Luplow.

Then compare his numbers to Palacios and Kwan. All three look like Babe Ruth compared to Thomas.

Is Thomas an improvement over Mercado? Sure. But IMO we aren't looking for merely an improvement at the 4th OF spot.

*****

One one hand, this lockout has gummed up the works, esp for a FO known to proceed with diligence and caution. But on the other hand (looking for a possible silver lining), it also gives the org a better idea of (1) if and when Blitzer will be coming on board, and (2) what exactly that might mean for the 2022 financial situation.
Thomas plays all 3 OF positions actually. He probably doesn't grade as well defensively in CF as he does the corners, but he's a good defensive corner OFer.

I'm not sure how you see Thomas' bat as "pedestrian". As a 22 yr old in in AA & AAA he slashed 264/333/489/823. As a 23 yr old in AAA he slashed 268/352/460/812. As a 25 yr old for the Nationals he slashed 270/364/489/853 with a 133 OPS+. In his time with Washington(178 AB) had accrued 1.3 WAR. Over the course of a full season that's over 4 WAR. He's just now entering his prime and I like his OBP and power potential. I like his short, quick swing too. He screams low maintenance and consistent, but that's just my take.

No reason to apologize for your opinion. Neither outweighs the other.

This is what Prospect Digest had to say about Thomas prior to the 2020 season and I think it sells him a little short due to the projected low OBP which has been one of his best assets. Personally, I think this is his floor.

" A poor man’s starter kit for five-tool potential. Thomas does everything well without owning a true standout skill. He’ll hit .250 or .260, take the occasional walk, belt out 20 homeruns, swipe 15 bags, and play 55-grade defense. That’s starting caliber potential wrapped up in a bargain basement price. In terms of offensive ceiling, think Nick Ahmed’s showing in 2019 when he batted .254/.316/.437 with 19 homeruns."
 
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What is Thomas' price though?

And I don't think Hays is worth nearly that much...
Hard to say really, but I think both fit nicely.

Here's one of my proposals on BTV. Would you and would the Orioles?

Guardians & Orioles​

Submitted by: BigBat
January 22, 2022

Guardians 1​

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailablilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Fry28MajorsLHRPMedium3.08.54.24.33.54.35.1
Hays25MajorsOFLow4.035.315.919.415.519.423.3
Means28MajorsSPMedium3.060.418.641.833.441.850.2
Mountcastle24Majors1BOFMedium5.048.516.232.325.832.338.8

Total Value: 97.80​

Orioles

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailablilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
FreemanMinors2B24.819.824.829.8
JonesMinors3B19.215.419.223
Plesac26MajorsSPLow4.037.413.324.119.324.128.9
Sandlin24MajorsRHRPLow6.014.97.37.66.17.69.1
ValeraMinorsOF24.219.424.229

Total Value: 99.90​

 
Give me an OF of Thomas in LF, Straw in CF, Hays in RF, and one of Kwan or Palacios as the 4th man. I could certainly live with that.
 
This is nearly verbatim the conversation we have had over the last three or four winters, only substituting Morgan for Plutko.

Lots of assurances that Plutko was a legit #5...until he couldn't even make the Baltimore rotation.

Lets look at the numbers.

72 AL pitchers put up at least 80 IP last year. Since fifteen teams began with five starters, technically all 72 are at least #5s....but only technically. Many, like Morgan and Plutko before him, only got to pitch, because others got hurt.

Out of those 72, Morgan ranked:

64th in fWAR
60th in ERA
61st in FIP
66th in xFIP

Overall, he had an ERA+ of 82.

In 2019, the last full season, there were 60 AL pitchers who accrued at last 80 IP.

Plutko ranked:

55th in fWAR
40th in ERA
53rd in FIP
57th in xFIP

He had an ERA+ of 92.

Somebody show me the difference.

Morgan 'won' a spot in the rotation by default. Everybody forgets that Allen had early season arm problems, and the only candidate with even miniscule time in AAA before last season was Morgan. Mejia hadn't even been to AA.

I would dispute that Morgan has passed anybody in our system. He just happened to be the next man in line with the most experience...and he was the oldest.

If anybody thinks that Morgan has passed any of Morris, Espino, and Allen Jr in the future pecking order, raise their hand. Throw in the three newcomers...Pilkington, Myers, and Battenfield.

This is always the time of year we have raging debates over fringe players....26th bench players and #8 pitchers. The lockout has made things worse...lol.
Say what Cats, people forgot that poor boy LS Allen had arm problems, but somehow you forgot that Morgan missed ST and the start of the freaking season, he got 22 ramp up innings in AAA and then was thrown to the wolves, in a monsoon game to start no less. How nice of you to leave this context all out and the fact that he's improved as the season went on and its why he kept the job a bunch of guys before him couldn't.

I agree with pete and most others that he'll likely get pushed out of the rotation, but not because he sucks, but because we have 5+ better one's. That's a good problem to have and Morgan will go on elsewhere.
The big difference to Plutko is that Morgan has a true out pitch he can build his arsenal around. Plutko was a bunch of junk meh and Morgan has much better K and swing and miss ability, they're not the same, it's a lazy comp, like saying K. Tom and Kwan are the same or J. Ramirez (or Urshela later) and E. Gonzalez (oh yes, those discussions were real, I remember vividly, because I was on the right side of history on both).

I feel as confident about this one, fwiw and I won't forget, lol
 
Lane Thomas is an uninspiring mix of Mercado, Zimmer and D. Johnson, but I guess it's better to waste one only one roster spot?

Give me Taylor Ward, better and probably cheaper
 
Another under the radar intriguing target that wouldn't cost much...

Taylor Ward of the Angels.

He has played every position in the field, except MIF. Originally drafted in the first round as a fine defensive catcher, his scouting reports were nearly unanimous that he wouldn't hit much....

Except for the fact that he kept hitting...and walking. His athleticism led to the Angels to try him at 3B, which was an unhappy surprise to him. But he hit even better, so the Angels made him an OF.

At AA and AAA, he has never hit much below 50% above league average...and his footspeed allows him to play all three OF positions.

But as a corner player for the Halos, he is behind Adell, Trout, Marsh, Rendon, and Walsh.

Last year, his third call up, and first in which he got some significant PT, his wRC+ was 111.

Lets see now...a RH bat that can play both corner OF spots and 1B might be just what the doctor ordered...esp on the cheap...and he is not yet arby eligible.

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When looking at MiLB stats, you can't just use OPS. You have to put everything into league context....and wRC+ does that much better.

When Thomas was 22 and played in AA and AAA his wRC+ were 124 and 110....good, but not earth shattering.

The next season when he put up an OPS of .812, his wRC+ was 98...league average.

In 268 MLB PAs last season his wRC+ was 103 with an fWAR of .6.

I wouldn't cry if we acquired Thomas, as long as he didn't cost us much, but IMO we can do a lot better...and a lot more cost efficiently. Right now, Thomas is a pre arb starting OF on a team that is short on OFs. Washington isn't gonna give him up cheap.

If we are gonna expend trade capital, IMO we should do so for bigger upgrades than Thomas....or for cheaper options with as much or more upside.

A kid like Yepez or maybe even Ward.
 
Say what Cats, people forgot that poor boy LS Allen had arm problems, but somehow you forgot that Morgan missed ST and the start of the freaking season, he got 22 ramp up innings in AAA and then was thrown to the wolves, in a monsoon game to start no less. How nice of you to leave this context all out and the fact that he's improved as the season went on and its why he kept the job a bunch of guys before him couldn't.

I agree with pete and most others that he'll likely get pushed out of the rotation, but not because he sucks, but because we have 5+ better one's. That's a good problem to have and Morgan will go on elsewhere.
The big difference to Plutko is that Morgan has a true out pitch he can build his arsenal around. Plutko was a bunch of junk meh and Morgan has much better K and swing and miss ability, they're not the same, it's a lazy comp, like saying K. Tom and Kwan are the same or J. Ramirez (or Urshela later) and E. Gonzalez (oh yes, those discussions were real, I remember vividly, because I was on the right side of history on both).

I feel as confident about this one, fwiw and I won't forget, lol

I have no idea what right side of history you are talking about, but I never thought that either Tom or EGon were legit MLB players.

In EGon's case, it was a foolhardy concensus that the only reason that he wasnt a starting MLB SS was because he was stuck behind Lindor...a concensus that I didn't agree with...and took as much abuse as I am now taking from you...lol.

Morgan is a 5'10" RH starting pitcher with one plus pitch. Midget RH SPs very seldom survive in MLB. And, unless the one pitch is Mariano Rivera's cutter, one pitch means no pitch. Even the great Mariano Rivera couldn't cut it as a SP with one pitch, although he tried.

Thats not a lazy take, thats fact.

I didn't forget that Morgan was hurt early, because it was irrelevant. Hurt early or not, injuries to Bieber, Civale, Plesac, and Allen opened the door for him.

Morgan obviously got thrown to the dogs, but so did several younger pitchers, too...and Morgan hasn't passed anybody up.

If you think Morgan is a viable MLB SP...a solid BOR good for 30 starts a year....fine.

I guess we will see, but it won't be in Cleveland...if Cleveland is expecting to contend for the division.

Oh, yeah...

Comparing stats like FIP and ERA+ is also not a lazy take.

In any case, I hope I'm wrong. I hope Morgan becomes Marcus Stroman...but don't bet on it.
 

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