Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[Gson]

Context was my apparently completely unclear point in regard to valuations (equating BTV to the tool—hammer).

What is the narrow POV?

@PPark An example of a narrow POV is only looking at a deal if it has ONLY direct and immediate returns.. That is, if a deal has a prospect included that doesn't contribute immediately.. a narrow POV would reject the deal out of hand.. This flies in the face of how the CleFO has done business for the last two decades save for an outlier or two.. CleFO looks at both the "now" and the "future".. and always will.. Your posting was not narrow.. at all..

 

[petes999]

meh... the jumping in part is overrated anyway....

but.. let's get to the real subject.. Eli Morgan.. It's an agreed to axiom that getting to the major leagues is the toughest goal to achieve in all of the major sports... but the truth is.. it's the toughest to remain.. and that especially includes MOR/BOR SP's. Eli Morgan has a killer combination of a fastball that sits in the low 90's that he likes to keep up in the zone and a change up that comes out of the same tunnel..about six to eight feet shorter..

Think about that.. you're a hitter.. in the box.. and some wiseass 26 year old is throwing two pitches that come out of the same tunnel.. the same arm action.. but one doesn't arrive for another six to eight feet.. or until after your bat is back in the bat rack and you have another K for your efforts???.. That's what Eli Morgan does.. He also has a slider and a curve ball..

last year.. BOTH OF THEM SUCKED..

The curve ball sucked because he couldn't throw if for strikes.. & ML hitters just spit on it.. There is no doubt in my mind that Eli Morgan can work his curveball into a plus offering..i.e. the command and control component of pitching...that's what he excells at..

The slider is a horse of a different color.. It sucked because it had the shape of an old American Legion Hanging Spinner that had a banner trailing that said ".. hit me hard.." The shape of his slide piece was too gently sloped at 2 to 8 o'clock. and that's one that gets hammered regardless of where in the zone or just out of the zone Eli put it. As the season wore on.. the shape of his slider tightened up, but only a little... That's what Eli needs to do to achieve the "toughest" thing in ML Baseball.. i.e. stay there..

Perhaps Jup can comment on Eli's spin rates and pitch shapes..primarily for his breaking pitches.. It's what I think is thee biggest thing missing from him being a long term resident in the Guardians Rotation..

At the end of the day.. he must fix either / both of his breaking balls (slider/curve) if he wants to stay on this team...

If he doesn't.. then the goal posts change for him..and not as a bullpen guy.. It will be like Plutko and his current gig in the far east..

Good points ... when you look at the numbers, he only threw 58 curveballs last year. He needs a good 4th pitch to really fool hitters (inc work on that slider). Yet, when he throws his fastball 45% of the time (and low 90s is generous ... its basically 90 when rounded), hitters just need to sit on that and then try to foul off the change w 2 strikes.

Yet, that .280 BA and .500+ SLG on his fastball and slider will not work well when its 75% of his pitches. That's why he is in the lowest 4% of Barrel % and xSLG. He is 58% on chase rate (assuming due to that wicked change off FB). Yet, to your point, if hitters are really 6-8 feet in front of it, they just look like a windmill but have 2 more chances to crush the next fastball.

Unfortunately, this maybe the last year he can work on those secondaries this offseason (with no official pitching coach) as he may not have much of a chance in 2023.

 

[Tondo]

Cats, your whole argument after this goes down the capper:

"I didn't forget that Morgan was hurt early, because it was irrelevant."

I mean, really? Lol
Yeah, a proper preparation for a season is totally irrelevant, the fact that he only threw 27 innings in AAA before his debut is totally irrelevant to assess his ability, talent level or development.

 

[Tondo]

Good points ... when you look at the numbers, he only threw 58 curveballs last year. He needs a good 4th pitch to really fool hitters (inc work on that slider). Yet, when he throws his fastball 45% of the time (and low 90s is generous ... its basically 90 when rounded), hitters just need to sit on that and then try to foul off the change w 2 strikes.

Yet, that .280 BA and .500+ SLG on his fastball and slider will not work well when its 75% of his pitches. That's why he is in the lowest 4% of Barrel % and xSLG. He is 58% on chase rate (assuming due to that wicked change off FB). Yet, to your point, if hitters are really 6-8 feet in front of it, they just look like a windmill but have 2 more chances to crush the next fastball.

Unfortunately, this maybe the last year he can work on those secondaries this offseason (with no official pitching coach) as he may not have much of a chance in 2023.

His FB Velo and effectiveness increased as the season went on. If a 6'3+ pitcher would have shown that, cats and cdav would trip over themselves gushing about the development. And let's not forget that he had to throw 86mph meatballs in his first game. Every pitchers velo was way down in that game that should have never been started.

He was 91+, t93-4 early in games and faded late. That can be attributed to his lack of preparation. He can easily up his avg velo into Civale level. His arsenal overall isn't as good, but they're closer than people realize and I remember plenty of fans crapping on Civale as a #5 at best too.

 

[rcristal]

I think Orioles will want a SP from us in the deal and I just went by BTV values and went with the lowest rated of the guys in a sense...

I think it's an overpay, but I doubt Orioles give him up without one...

No doubt that Baltimore wants a SP. How about this one instead,,,,,,,
Plesac, Giminez and Aries for Mullins.

And, imho we could still go after a corner like Reynolds,,,,,
Let's say, Policies, Kwan and Tana.

And,,,, we would still hold into most of our top prospects.

Rcristal

 

[PIP]

Hard to not be fired up with baseball right now…..all the buzz…

 

[KluberSociety]

His FB Velo and effectiveness increased as the season went on. If a 6'3+ pitcher would have shown that, cats and cdav would trip over themselves gushing about the development. And let's not forget that he had to throw 86mph meatballs in his first game. Every pitchers velo was way down in that game that should have never been started.

He was 91+, t93-4 early in games and faded late. That can be attributed to his lack of preparation. He can easily up his avg velo into Civale level. His arsenal overall isn't as good, but they're closer than people realize and I remember plenty of fans crapping on Civale as a #5 at best too.

This isn't showing an increasing velo FB as the season went on. Seems like he was consistently ~90.5 (let's say 89-92):

Player Card: Eli Morgan

www.brooksbaseball.net

Also his stamina wasn't that big of an issue although it was the worst on the rotation. From 91.06 first time through the lineup to 90.46 to 90.27 the second and third times through:

Player Card: Eli Morgan

www.brooksbaseball.net

 

[CATS44]

Cats, your whole argument after this goes down the capper:

"I didn't forget that Morgan was hurt early, because it was irrelevant."

I mean, really? Lol
Yeah, a proper preparation for a season is totally irrelevant, the fact that he only threw 27 innings in AAA before his debut is totally irrelevant to assess his ability, talent level or development.

It was irrelevant in the context that it wouldn't have mattered if four rotation members hadn't gotten hurt.

And if his lack of preparation is an excuse, why is it not an excuse for a kid like Mejia, who had never pitched above A+ ball?

You are partially correct about one thing. If Morgan stood 6-4 and weighed 220, I'd be far more optimistic. And if by age 25, five years, and over 300 IP, he had developed more than one plus pitch, I'd be even more optimistic.

But do some research, and get back to me, please. How many present pitchers under 5-11 have had enough success to be regular rotation members in MLB.

Nevermind. I did some myself. This past season, 57 AL pitchers threw at least 100 IP, meaning they were at least good enough and durable enough to start at least 20 games.

Out of those 57, only one was under 6' tall...Framber Valdez, who outweighs Morgan by almost 50 pounds.

The road for high end midget pitching prospects is littered with shattered arms and failure....a major reason I wanted no part of Deivi Garcia when his name was bandied several years ago as a possible target.

Morgan has less chance of being a viable MLB SP than a 5-10 college point guard entering the NBA has a chance to make an impact.

It happens, but you will go bankrupt betting on them.

 

[CATS44]

As for narrow points of view, context matters.

Right now we have prospects...good prospects and lots of them. What we don't have is an active roster capable of scoring enough runs to make a real run at the division title. We especially don't have OBP and the batting average that drives it.

Every team targets the kind of players and prospects it needs to fit their situation. By definition, targeting means a narrowing of POV.

Not targeting for specific needs is merely trading for the sake of making trades. Those that propose not narrowing POV when discussing trades would have loved Trader Frank Lane, who lived to make trades, never worrying about team needs.

He destroyed the Cleveland Indians in three years. It took 35 years to recover.

No thanks.

 

[CDAV45]

Say what Cats, people forgot that poor boy LS Allen had arm problems, but somehow you forgot that Morgan missed ST and the start of the freaking season, he got 22 ramp up innings in AAA and then was thrown to the wolves, in a monsoon game to start no less. How nice of you to leave this context all out and the fact that he's improved as the season went on and its why he kept the job a bunch of guys before him couldn't.

I agree with pete and most others that he'll likely get pushed out of the rotation, but not because he sucks, but because we have 5+ better one's. That's a good problem to have and Morgan will go on elsewhere.
The big difference to Plutko is that Morgan has a true out pitch he can build his arsenal around. Plutko was a bunch of junk meh and Morgan has much better K and swing and miss ability, they're not the same, it's a lazy comp, like saying K. Tom and Kwan are the same or J. Ramirez (or Urshela later) and E. Gonzalez (oh yes, those discussions were real, I remember vividly, because I was on the right side of history on both).

I feel as confident about this one, fwiw and I won't forget, lol

I totally agree with what I bolded. Eli Morgan doesn't suck and he's certainly not done developing at 25 yrs old. There just isn't really room for him here and if there is it will probably be short lived. I even stated that I would be fine with Eli in the 5 hole if Plesac or Civale were traded for a big bat. So after all the bickering it appears we're pretty much on the same page. For the record I never compared him to Plutko.

Lane Thomas is an uninspiring mix of Mercado, Zimmer and D. Johnson, but I guess it's better to waste one only one roster spot?

Give me Taylor Ward, better and probably cheaper

Taylor Ward is better? Could you explain how please because I don't see it and Ward is 2 yrs senior.

 

[sportscoach]

No doubt that Baltimore wants a SP. How about this one instead,,,,,,,
Plesac, Giminez and Aries for Mullins.

And, imho we could still go after a corner like Reynolds,,,,,
Let's say, Policies, Kwan and Tana.

And,,,, we would still hold into most of our top prospects.

Rcristal

Reynolds likely won't be done without Espino back. Mullins I don't think is as steep, but the Orioles aren't wanting guys whose MLB clock is already started, they will want guys who they can start themselves in a sense.

Baltimore looking at there top 30 prospects as a quick reference, have to get a SP prospect back for any deal including Hays, Means or Mullins... @CDAV45 this nullifies your deal earlier... I know your deal works on paper, but I think they will trade guys in multiple deals so they can upgrade the farm and have a greater chance of success long term...

From Baltimore's standpoint I would handle the teams this way in a sense...

Hays plus Baulmer for Jones plus Battenfield

Then Means to Toronto for something like a deal of Hoglund, Groshans, Otto Lopez plus two more prospects like Kloffenstein and Dallas. Not the best via BTV... but I think Hoglund, Groshans and Lopez are a bit underrated by them...

Then if they move Mountcastle separately (though I would keep him), let's say to Atlanta since they gotta replace Freeman...

So it would be Mountcastle plus Santander for OF Michael Harris, OF Justin Dean, SS Braden Shewmake, RHPs Bryce Elder and Joey Estes...

So if I was Baltimore, out is Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Means plus maybe 1-2 minor leaguers like Baulmer for...

INF/OF Jones, Lopez, INF Shewmake, Groshans, OF Harris, Dean, RHPs Hoglund, Battenfield, Elder, Estes plus two more lower prospects...

Then Mullins would either get traded or extended...

No offense, but your trade proposal @CDAV45 looks kind of bad in my mind since they can get way more by trading those guys seperately... I'm taking the multiple deals...

 

[CDAV45]

Reynolds likely won't be done without Espino back. Mullins I don't think is as steep, but the Orioles aren't wanting guys whose MLB clock is already started, they will want guys who they can start themselves in a sense.

Baltimore looking at there top 30 prospects as a quick reference, have to get a SP prospect back for any deal including Hays, Means or Mullins... @CDAV45 this nullifies your deal earlier... I know your deal works on paper, but I think they will trade guys in multiple deals so they can upgrade the farm and have a greater chance of success long term...

From Baltimore's standpoint I would handle the teams this way in a sense...

Hays plus Baulmer for Jones plus Battenfield

Then Means to Toronto for something like a deal of Hoglund, Groshans, Otto Lopez plus two more prospects like Kloffenstein and Dallas. Not the best via BTV... but I think Hoglund, Groshans and Lopez are a bit underrated by them...

Then if they move Mountcastle separately (though I would keep him), let's say to Atlanta since they gotta replace Freeman...

So it would be Mountcastle plus Santander for OF Michael Harris, OF Justin Dean, SS Braden Shewmake, RHPs Bryce Elder and Joey Estes...

So if I was Baltimore, out is Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Means plus maybe 1-2 minor leaguers like Baulmer for...

INF/OF Jones, Lopez, INF Shewmake, Groshans, OF Harris, Dean, RHPs Hoglund, Battenfield, Elder, Estes plus two more lower prospects...

Then Mullins would either get traded or extended...

No offense, but your trade proposal @CDAV45 looks kind of bad in my mind since they can get way more by trading those guys seperately... I'm taking the multiple deals...

Forget about Reynolds and Mullins. The cost is just too high in the same light as teams wanting JRam.

I honestly don't think they would deal Mountcastle and I don't blame them so let's remove him from the conversation.

Baltimore's window probably starts to open in 2024 or close thereafter and that makes Means and Fry available. They have a plethora of good SP prospects that are either already up or close to a promotion. That list includes all of Hall, Rodriguez, Bradish, Baumann, Smith, Lowther, Zimmerman, and Akin. What they could use is a young, controlled for years rock in the middle of their rotation. We happen to have Plesac and Civale that would fit exceptionally well in their upcoming Window as both reach FA a year later than Means and are less expensive. Toronto cannot offer that. If they prefer more SP prospects then we have more to offer there as well than Toronto. Baltimore also has some good upper level OFers in Stowers and Diaz with Cowser and Haskin in the lower levels so Hays is probably available. What Baltimore lacks is upper level IF prospects. How convenient for us. They basically lack in our areas of depth and quality. There's a match between Cleveland and Baltimore, but trades are obviously difficult to conceive.

In the end I'd give Plesac, Freeman, Jones, and Sandlin for Means, Hays, and Fry. I think that is fair and helps both teams in their current states.

 

[PPark]

@PPark An example of a narrow POV is only looking at a deal if it has ONLY direct and immediate returns.. That is, if a deal has a prospect included that doesn't contribute immediately.. a narrow POV would reject the deal out of hand.. This flies in the face of how the CleFO has done business for the last two decades save for an outlier or two.. CleFO looks at both the "now" and the "future".. and always will.. Your posting was not narrow.. at all..

Understood. I was looking for some feed back to hopefully help improve my posting clarity. Appreciate the response.

 

[Gson]

I think Burns would fit their needs nicely and he's ready for AA in 22. I'd give Williams up for Hays as well, but I'd try to convince them with Burns first.

no

 

[sportscoach]

Forget about Reynolds and Mullins. The cost is just too high in the same light as teams wanting JRam.

I honestly don't think they would deal Mountcastle and I don't blame them so let's remove him from the conversation.

Baltimore's window probably starts to open in 2024 or close thereafter and that makes Means and Fry available. They have a plethora of good SP prospects that are either already up or close to a promotion. That list includes all of Hall, Rodriguez, Bradish, Baumann, Smith, Lowther, Zimmerman, and Akin. What they could use is a young, controlled for years rock in the middle of their rotation. We happen to have Plesac and Civale that would fit exceptionally well in their upcoming Window as both reach FA a year later than Means and are less expensive. Toronto cannot offer that. If they prefer more SP prospects then we have more to offer there as well than Toronto. Baltimore also has some good upper level OFers in Stowers and Diaz with Cowser and Haskin in the lower levels so Hays is probably available. What Baltimore lacks is upper level IF prospects. How convenient for us. They basically lack in our areas of depth and quality. There's a match between Cleveland and Baltimore, but trades are obviously difficult to conceive.

In the end I'd give Plesac, Freeman, Jones, and Sandlin for Means, Hays, and Fry. I think that is fair and helps both teams in their current states.

Why would Baltimore wants Plesac? They aren't going to trade for a guy who will be expensive when they could possibly get into contention. If I was Baltimore I would just load up on a ton of prospects while trading the few big leaguers I have left... I would probably then bring in clubhouse leader veterans to help them develop, but focus is on the young talent.