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Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)
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I get the 4 years vs 1.5/2.5 yrs. However, pre-injury and other issues, Clevinger was seen as a solid #2/#3 role on a playoff team. Plesac is more like #4. He maybe our #3 this year but our staff is nowhere close to what it was as of a few years ago.
Using BTV as a reference, Clevinger had a value of $38.4 when he was traded and we got back slightly less. Bauer had a value of $34.4 and we got more. Right now, they have Plesac listed as $24.1, so we are not going to get quite the haul as we did from the others. Plus, as we want quality over quantity now, we may be more picky on our return and get slightly less.
And, for me, the size of pitchers matters up to an extent. My daughter pitches softball and we debate how much size of pitchers matters. Recently, had a dad point out how some small golfers can get maximum torque out of a small frame if they know how to use their core. I replied, yes but everything has to go right to get that production while a John Daly can swill a beer and out drive most everyone with the worst of forms.
As my daughter is on the smaller size of pitchers who she will face in HS in a couple years, her pitching coach discussed with her that she will need to learn to spin the ball better than the other bigger pitchers who have 5-10+ mph faster fastballs. And, we have also focused on getting every mph out of her form. During a recent break, she started to bend her back lower to get more lift at the beginning of her deliver for a faster arm rotation. When her coach saw how low she was going, she almost completely nixed it (due to injury concerns) only to see it took off 3-4 mph. We are trying to find a happy medium now.
Yet, the point still is ...
1) small pitchers can pitch but you need everything to go right to get the max effort out of smaller package
2) pitchers of the same size can have several mph difference as you see with a guy like Burns who sits mid 90s (and alternatively Hickman) but everything needs to go right (need to be more perfect in their delivery - thus fewer examples as a % of population).
3) if a pitcher like Morgan hasn't found the speed by now, he will not ... thus the development of a 4th pitch that spins in different direction is important this year and should have been a focus when he came here (guess cutter was 3rd development last year and 4th can come this year).
But, that cutter had the same BAA against as FB .... He needs to refine that too ...
Luckily, my daughter is a lefty but so is our current HS pitcher who has the size and speed. My daughter is working on 3 other pitches right now (change, drop and beginning of screwball). She will ultimately need that riser and curve just to get that tunnel where the pitch can go ... up, down, left or right so a hitter isn't guessing one or the other (and guess right). As I said the other day, with Morgan using FB 45% of time, a hitter can take a chance to look silly on a change for 1 or 2 strikes if he sits FB which usually comes in up and inside (not much guessing needed if you can hit that zone - keep hands in and punch it the other way versus HR swing with arms extended that hitters want to do). It's a big year for Morgan as hitters will catch up to him and he needs to adjust. Just need to see if he can do it.
Eli Morgan Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com
(null) Avg Exit Velocity: 89.5, Hard Hit %: 42.6, wOBA: .343, xwOBA: .349, Barrel %: 11.9. Pitch Arsenal: FF, SL, CH, CU, FC
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CDAV45
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Yeah we'll diverge again. There's nothing terribly wrong with Myers' mechanics and he repeats them well being the very good athlete that he is. Any scouting report that I've read says exactly that too. The arm action isn't real long, but I'd like to see it shortened a little and the effort is consistent and not over exerting. There is no noticeable difference in effort between any of his pitches.
The only question I have about Myers is how well he tunnels his pitches. Regardless, there is something that allows him to rack up a good number of SO while limiting walks. There's also a reason that this organization targeted him.
Again, Myers was 6'0" and 193 lbs when drafted. He is now listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs. I red flag goes up for me when discussing shorter SP too, but I'm not worried about this kid because structure is probably as or more important than height. This kid is built like an athlete and he moves like one too.
He operates his FB in the 93-96 mph range with movement. Upon being drafted he needed to improve his change up and he's done exactly that. It's an above average pitch now and the biggest reason he went to a BP/BOR guy to a legitimate MOR SP possibility.
The most important factor for me is that he pitched that well in AA/AAA as a 22 yr old.
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Don't know what this list refers to, but if it is reference to short pitchers...
Quintana is 6-1
Webb is 6-1
Peralta is 5-11
Urias is 5-9
Berrios is 6-0
Gray is 5-10
Only two are as short as Morgan....and listing the exceptions to the rule only underscore the reality.
Quintana throws 92
Webb 93
Peralta 93
Urias 94
Gray 93
Berrios 94
Morgan sits around 91.
ERA+ over the last three years...
Peralta...125
Webb......106
Berrios....120
Gray.........141
Urias .......144
Quintana...90
Bieber......171
Civale.......119
Plesac......115
Quantrill...119
TMac.........96
Four of them would be our #2, based on ERA+. One wouldn't make our opening day rotation.
Everybody knows that there are more tall pitchers than smaller one's, we don't need 1000 words from you to understand this. I just corrected your claim that there's only 1 around and btw, I just looked at the top 50ish SP of the past years plus threw in Quintana because I knew he was shorter, lol. There are more if go through the entire list, but I think I made my point.
And yes, there are simple biological reasons that there are less smaller pitchers, but also industry, scouting, drafting and development biases at work. Imagine you're a short two way player or a 6'4 one. Guess to which side of the field coaches talk you to.
And yes, there are simple biological reasons that there are less smaller pitchers, but also industry, scouting, drafting and development biases at work. Imagine you're a short two way player or a 6'4 one. Guess to which side of the field coaches talk you to.
CDAV45
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I understand your concern with dealing one of the current SP. It's a legitimate concern. However, for this team to get to a competitive state in the 22 season while maintaining there outlook, there's probably going to be some risk involved. We'd have to rely on Morgan, Allen, Myers, Pilkington and Morris to fill the 5 spot for at least the first couple months of the season.
Sorry if you already posted it before, but what do you think the Cardinals would want in return for Yepez? I'd much prefer him to Nootbaar, but I think he is an upgrade too. He's certainly better defensively than Yepez, but the opposite is true offensively IMO.
Adding another SP is certainly a possibility as well, but it would probably be a veteran in the twilight of his career or a flawed pitcher that Cleveland thinks it can correct.
Actually we do have a few "Plesacs" who was promoted quickly out of necessity. He was chosen because he could control the strike zone and he was immediately successful. I see the same type of pitcher in all 5 of the SP prospects we've been discussing. Actually, I like them every bit as much or more than Plesac, but that's just me.
In the end I don't blame you for thoughts on the idea of trading a SP. Clearly I'm more willing to take the risk. It's just a difference of opinion.
KluberSociety
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One thing often cited about shorter pitchers is they don't hold up as well, and as a result cannot be counted on to throw many innings in a season, thus making them better relief candidates.
When I see that list, I see a bunch of pitchers who have spent significant time on ILs. I also get afraid of Danny Salazar / Carlos Martinez types that burn out quickly.
Morgan really just doesn't have the big stuff though and I doubt he's going to grow into throwing much harder. There's nothing wrong with having Josh Tomlin kinds of players as options though... it's easiest to realize that when you don't have them and you need someone to start games. And we've run into that a few times.
When I see that list, I see a bunch of pitchers who have spent significant time on ILs. I also get afraid of Danny Salazar / Carlos Martinez types that burn out quickly.
Morgan really just doesn't have the big stuff though and I doubt he's going to grow into throwing much harder. There's nothing wrong with having Josh Tomlin kinds of players as options though... it's easiest to realize that when you don't have them and you need someone to start games. And we've run into that a few times.
Criznit
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FWIW - I think Morgan stands a fairly decent chance of being "better" than a Tomlin or Plutko. Also believe his FB/CH could work out of the bullpen for an inning or 2.
He's in the tough spot of having to produce in order to fend off the "real" SP prospects, but he will get an opportunity to do so in 2022. As far as 1st up/spot starter types? I like him a lot. Let's see what he's got.
He's in the tough spot of having to produce in order to fend off the "real" SP prospects, but he will get an opportunity to do so in 2022. As far as 1st up/spot starter types? I like him a lot. Let's see what he's got.
CDAV45
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I think there will always be a spot somewhere for pitchers like Morgan. Good quality SP is difficult to accumulate unless you can spend a bazillion dollars and/or avoid injuries to SP which are so frequent. Eli's problem isn't who he is, it is what organization he is in. I'd argue that if he's a viable SP for the Guardians then he can be used by most teams in the league.
I believe that he is going to get steamrolled by some of the up and coming SP talent(he's not the only one), but I have no problem with him pitching well out of the 5 hole for now. Like Criz said "let's see what he's got", but in order to do so one of our SP will either have to start the season on the IL or be traded IMO.
I believe that he is going to get steamrolled by some of the up and coming SP talent(he's not the only one), but I have no problem with him pitching well out of the 5 hole for now. Like Criz said "let's see what he's got", but in order to do so one of our SP will either have to start the season on the IL or be traded IMO.
I dont need a thousand words.
All I need are examples. Only two of the pitchers you listed are as short as Morgan. Several aren't even close.
The point is that the odds against Morgan becoming a reliable...both in results and consistent health....are so large as to be nearly negligible.
But if you like him as a regular rotation member, be my guest.
I'm betting the FO agrees with me, and we will see that soon enough.
The idea that he can give us as good a chance of winning as Plesac is ridiculous. The idea that he has a 'good chance' of being better than Plutko or Tomlin says all anybody should need to know.
If he is good enough to be a productive SP in MLB, only held back by being in this org, hopefully Antonettis phone is burning up.
I heard the same thing about EGonz, that he was a starting SS, except for Lindor. That was baloney, too.
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We've talked about Yepez earlier and had a debate about his trade value. Nobody really knows what the Cards would want in return...certainly not me.
But...
He was their MiLB offensive POY, and the general concensus in StL and national media is that he is the first option as the Card DH, if there is a DH. Therefore the Cards view him as a starter with six years of control.
On this board there are several that wouldn't trade Palacios for Happ. What on earth would they expect to get for Yepez?
I dont think Yepez would cost as little as some fans think. I dont think that BTV values apply. IMO he would cost a pitching prospect most fans wouldn't want to give up, and maybe something more.
But if the Cards think as highly of Morgan as this board does.....please, baseball gods, make that so.
sportscoach
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I dont think the FO agrees with you since this FO has almost always had a Tomlin/Plutko type of the roster. I think cause of Tomlin they make sure they keep finding that type of pitcher especially in the draft and/or minor league trades. They keep bringing in guys who just know how to pitch and command the ball. Every team needs a Tomlin on their roster in my mind. A guy who can fill in the 5th spot/swingman role. His job is to just eat innings after innings.
Morgan stepped up at the end of the season and did a much better job pitching than the higher rated prospects that were struggling. 4 37 ERA with over 5 innings a start in his last 13 starts... He also had really good stats the first time through the lineup, so in my mind, he will be a legit reliever, if anything he actually may prove to be a very good one.
I have no worries about the kid being successful in the bigs... it's just a question of does he learn a complementary pitch to keep him a 4th/5th starter or does he become a solid swingman... Which one will he become?
CDAV45
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Don't misrepresent me saying that there is plenty of room for Eli Morgan in MLB for him being some kind of underrated superstar waiting to bloom. The point was that good SP isn't an abundant resource for most teams so there is room for guys like Eli which is why you still see guys like Harvey, Arrieta, Tomlin and numerous more getting jobs every single year. I'd say most here(including me) firmly believe that Morgan can outpitch someone like Harvey.
Nobody, especially me, said anything in the realm of "Morgan can give us as good a chance of winning as Plesac". Why do you continually do this? That would be the same as me saying that you don't think the offense needs to improve because you don't want to see Plesac traded. It's BS and poor form CATS. Morgan isn't going to bring back anything of value in a trade either. It's kinda been the point that Eli's value to Cleveland as a depth starter is probably more valuable than in a trade. Now, if he happens to get an opportunity and shines then that could certainly change. Is it possible that a non-contender could use a SP like Morgan while their prospects work their way in while at the same time have a productive corner OFer signed to a contract that doesn't fit their current agenda? I don't know....maybe? Maybe not?
So why is it you value Yepez so highly, but seem to see Palacios in such low regard? While you don't think that Yepez "would cost as little as some fans think" I would suggest that Palacios is more valuable than you think.
Edited to say that I have no idea who Chernoff is willing or wanting to trade or trade for. I have no idea what his intentions are, but I wish this lockout would fucking end so that we could have some real, substantive conversations about Guardian baseball instead of the current BS. I'm hanging on by a thread here.
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I know what you are feeling with that last part.
I value Palacios a lot as a prospect, but I value prospects generally lower than most do...simply because they fail more often than fans will admit to.
My point was that Palacios is a kid that many fans don't want to trade, even for a significant immediate upgrade, but at the same time those same fans think that Yepez can be had for a song.
Yepez has a much better chance to be an impact player this year than Palacios.
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You can't on one hand suggest that we should trade Plesac for hitting, because we have Morgan to immediately take his place, and then on the other hand deny it.
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I have no interest in merely making the offense better. I am interested in making the TEAM better, and trading a quality SP for offense doesn't do that. Its just robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you want to make this team better, trade some of the excess prospect capital to make the offense better.
The drop in production from Plesac to Morgan is so great that we would have to get a player like Reynolds for such a trade to improve the team. By mid season, we may have a SP prospect good enough to do such a thing...but not before then...
Unless...
The FO views Allen as a legit SP.
Because, if Plesac is traded now, Allen...not Morgan....will get first shot. The FO didn't keep Allen, just to cut him in March.
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Lord knows how Arrietta and Harvey got into this conversation, but they were both very effective pitchers at one time. Arrieta was pitching out a multi year contract. SD picked him up for nothing on a flyer, because their rotation was decimated in the middle of the stretch run. Harvey was paid $1 mil to eat innings and provide veteran presence for a bottom feeder.
If SD or Baltimore thought Morgan would have been better for their respective situations, they could have called our FO and made a decent offer.
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I've spent a lot of time...others have, too....looking at various trade scenarios. Many of the others are seemingly interested in stockpiling more prospects by trading away or better players and much of our pitching staff, including the pen.
I obviously have no such focus...lol. For me, prospects equal money, not wins.
I have found only two reasonable scenarios in which trading Plesac as part of a package would make us a better team. Both involve receiving a vet SP in return, to go along with a multi year offensive upgrade.
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My view is that we tend to way over value our prospects, prospects in general, and our fringe players...while we seriously under value the good players/pitchers we already have.
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The trick for the FO is to find the players undervalued by other teams, the spare parts....not necessarily high end prospects. The ones that can produce now.
The Casey Blakes. The Choos. The Asdrubals. The Scrabbles. The Gomeses. The Pronks. They dont necessarily have to be stars...just good, solid, dependable everyday players.
And stick them behind a very good rotation.
The org has been very good at finding them. All of those above were buried in their original orgs. All of them were picked up for almost nothing of value.
While its fun to speculate on the big names on our various shopping lists, it will probably be the lesser deals that make or break this season.
Because of the roster crunch, which still exists...at least half the roster with little or no MLB experience...there is likely a three/four for one deal coming. But watch for the smaller deals....involving a name like Yepez or Ward.
And root for StL to sign Schwarber, which would mean that Yepez becomes totally expendable.
Some interesting things I've read while snooping around. (Being retired and stuck under at least 16 inches of snow, I have lots of time to snoop.)...
Fangraphs has a fantasy centric column on unknown names to pick. Even though it's just fantasy baseball, counting stats tend to mean baseball production. The three top pitching suggestions were all Guardians prospects...Battenfield, Pilkington, and Mikolajchak. The top suggested offensive prospect was Kwan.
In a column on Yepez...he was one of only three MiLB players with at least 25 homers and a K rate under 20%. The other two were Anthony Volpe and Jose Miranda. That's pretty fair company.
Fangraphs has a fantasy centric column on unknown names to pick. Even though it's just fantasy baseball, counting stats tend to mean baseball production. The three top pitching suggestions were all Guardians prospects...Battenfield, Pilkington, and Mikolajchak. The top suggested offensive prospect was Kwan.
In a column on Yepez...he was one of only three MiLB players with at least 25 homers and a K rate under 20%. The other two were Anthony Volpe and Jose Miranda. That's pretty fair company.
KluberSociety
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It was actually LT Allen not Pilkington. Thanks for bringing that up though, I missed that one.