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Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

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I want to believe you CATS, I'd just like to see another year of it before "giving up the farm" for him. The more I consider it, the more I believe that Baltimore won't trade him anyway. Great target though, and certainly appears to be a difference maker. He's the type that would make all of us happy should he continue to perform like he did this season. He's a 5 tool player.

Edited to say that I think it's more realistic to acquire Happ and Haniger, and I would focus my energy and resources on that type of player(s).

Both are on my shopping list, though farther down.

The problem with Haniger is that he would be a rental...the kind of pickup that is better suited for the deadline. If he had three years of control left, he might be #1 on my hit parade.

While I have no problem with trading prospects, I'm not really interested in rentals in the off season.

As GM, I'm responsible for husbanding the resources at hand....money and young talent. If I have a choice between trading multiple fine prospects for Haniger, who will get around $5.5 mil in arby, or sign Canha for $8-9 mil, Canha is the obvious choice. They are basically the same player....with the same value.

The difference in cost is probably under $4 mil.

Would anybody be willing to sell multiple prospects for $4 mil? Not me.

The problem with Happ, who anybody who has followed me knows has been at the top of my wish list for years, is that he Ks too much. That wasn't as big a problem several years ago, when we had Carlos and Lindor in the lineup. But with Franmil and Bobby now here, how many 30% K rates can a 9 man lineup have and still be productive? The other thing that has to be considered is that, inspite of all that talent, he hasn't been that productive. His value lies in his versatility.

He will make about $6.5 mil next year, and more in 2023. Again, I look at Canha, and think I'd prefer bidding on him first.

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In this exercise, as sportcoach laid out at the beginning of the thread, we have $70 mil to spend.

As GM, my goal is to spend young talent on a major upgrade that will be here for at least three years, and hopefully four. A major long term upgrade to go with the present roster negates the need for a ton of prospects.

The second goal is to spend my money on a short term upgrade that will act as a bridge to Valera and cover my butt at first base, in case Bobby struggles.

My shopping list so far looks like...

Laureano
Reynolds
Mullins
Edman

Maybe none of them will be available, but I'm willing to spend a lot in talent to acquire them...and like everything I do, I kick the tires on the top of the line first, and work my way down to what works best for me.

I learned that from my Dad. He wanted a Lincoln, but with three kids at home and headed to college, he bought a Ford. Once we got thru college he bought a Mercury. But once he retired, and he had the resources, he bought a Lincoln.

I think I have enough prospect resources to shop in the Lincoln row...but I won't know until I try.

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Again, revisionist thinking on past pitching prospects. We may say now in hindsight that this guy or that was a lesser rated prospect than Espino, but at the time the industry disagreed.

And while higher rated prospects now crash and burn all around us, we may think we may have the one prospect that will defy the odds, its a really poor bet.

Espino looks like one hell of a prospect. Every top 100 SP prospect does. I dont WANT to trade him, but only 20-30% of Espinos end up turning potential into production over their first six years in MLB. And if that's the price to pay to make this team a viable contender for the next three or four years, I will do it in a NY minute.
 
Both are on my shopping list, though farther down.

The problem with Haniger is that he would be a rental...the kind of pickup that is better suited for the deadline. If he had three years of control left, he might be #1 on my hit parade.

While I have no problem with trading prospects, I'm not really interested in rentals in the off season.

As GM, I'm responsible for husbanding the resources at hand....money and young talent. If I have a choice between trading multiple fine prospects for Haniger, who will get around $5.5 mil in arby, or sign Canha for $8-9 mil, Canha is the obvious choice. They are basically the same player....with the same value.

The difference in cost is probably under $4 mil.

Would anybody be willing to sell multiple prospects for $4 mil? Not me.

The problem with Happ, who anybody who has followed me knows has been at the top of my wish list for years, is that he Ks too much. That wasn't as big a problem several years ago, when we had Carlos and Lindor in the lineup. But with Franmil and Bobby now here, how many 30% K rates can a 9 man lineup have and still be productive? The other thing that has to be considered is that, inspite of all that talent, he hasn't been that productive. His value lies in his versatility.

He will make about $6.5 mil next year, and more in 2023. Again, I look at Canha, and think I'd prefer bidding on him first.

**********

In this exercise, as sportcoach laid out at the beginning of the thread, we have $70 mil to spend.

As GM, my goal is to spend young talent on a major upgrade that will be here for at least three years, and hopefully four. A major long term upgrade to go with the present roster negates the need for a ton of prospects.

The second goal is to spend my money on a short term upgrade that will act as a bridge to Valera and cover my butt at first base, in case Bobby struggles.

My shopping list so far looks like...

Laureano
Reynolds
Mullins
Edman

Maybe none of them will be available, but I'm willing to spend a lot in talent to acquire them...and like everything I do, I kick the tires on the top of the line first, and work my way down to what works best for me.

I learned that from my Dad. He wanted a Lincoln, but with three kids at home and headed to college, he bought a Ford. Once we got thru college he bought a Mercury. But once he retired, and he had the resources, he bought a Lincoln.

I think I have enough prospect resources to shop in the Lincoln row...but I won't know until I try.

**********

Again, revisionist thinking on past pitching prospects. We may say now in hindsight that this guy or that was a lesser rated prospect than Espino, but at the time the industry disagreed.

And while higher rated prospects now crash and burn all around us, we may think we may have the one prospect that will defy the odds, its a really poor bet.

Espino looks like one hell of a prospect. Every top 100 SP prospect does. I dont WANT to trade him, but only 20-30% of Espinos end up turning potential into production over their first six years in MLB. And if that's the price to pay to make this team a viable contender for the next three or four years, I will do it in a NY minute.
All very fair points, and most of them I agree with. I'm not a Canha fan and I wouldn't waste any resources on him whatsoever. If he didn't get beaned 100 times his OPS would be close to .700. That's not acceptable to me for a FA corner player. I'd rather just stay in house and look to guys like Kwan, Jones, and OGon.

Happ had a down year, but it wasn't terrible and he's in his prime. He's had 3 good seasons and 2 that were slightly above average when looking at OPS+. The SO were up this year, but his OBP remained solid. With the MIF crunch looming, I'd much rather give up one of them then give Canha $5M. Just my opinion.

Haniger will be 31 in December so he's borderline for me. If you can get a couple of healthy seasons out of him you're looking at a 5 WAR player at least. He's not just a slugger, but a powerful hitter. You give me Haniger in RF, Straw in CF, and Happ in LF and I'd be ecstatic even if everything else remained the same.

What you say about Espino is mostly, if not all true. The problem is when you hit on a guy like him you end up with an elite TOR SP like Sabathia that is controlled inexpensively for years. Yes, he's that kind of talent even if he is more likely to fail. I'm not totally against dealing him, but it better be for something extremely special. Mullins appears to be that kind of player, but I'm not completely certain which leads to my hesitation.
 
Yankees and Cubs should exchange catchers.. Sanchez for Contreras.. and leave the Guardians out of the discussions..

Hard pass..
 
It will take more than one top prospect to get Happ.

It will take none to get Canha.

You can make a case that Canha is older and might regress, you can't make a case that Happ is nearly as good of a ball player. It's not even close.

fWAR last three seasons...

Happ...1.4...1.9...1.3

Canha...4.0...1.7...2.6

You want production?

wRC+ last three seasons...

Happ...126..130...103

Canha...146...127...115

You prefer walk rates, K rates, OBP?

Then you prefer Canha.

If you prefer to hang on to prospects, you prefer Canha.

Would you like to have Brantley back for a year? Canha is younger and has been just as good.

Just because you've never heard much about Canha doesn't mean he isn't a player.

Maybe Canha will cost too much...maybe not. But if he's in our price range, I want him.
 
The more I dig into the position player roster the more I’m convinced it’s going to take far more than an offseason to “transform” it. Quite the conundrum.

Personally I believe paying peak value for anything is bad business so that presents a problem.

Something a kin to an augmented “addition by subtraction” approach appears to be the best route. Meaning identify the players with problematic skill sets with the highest market value augmenting them with prospects in an attempt to transition the roster to a better place. It’s definitely not the instant gratification approach.
 
@CATS44 what do you think about Pham as an alternative to Canha? Similar kind of player, whose xStats have shown he hasn't really declined despite lower than usual actual stats over the last 2 years. In fact his xwOBA is actually higher than Canha's in 2021. Canha's decline in power scares me a bit. Personally I think we should explore many options but I wouldn't mind ending up with buying low on him.

Basically, either one of these guys will have highest value next year which is why I think it fits when we need them. If they fade to a bench role during a multi year contract that's fine if Valera or someone is able to fill in.
 
@CATS44 what do you think about Pham as an alternative to Canha? Similar kind of player, whose xStats have shown he hasn't really declined despite lower than usual actual stats over the last 2 years. In fact his xwOBA is actually higher than Canha's in 2021. Canha's decline in power scares me a bit. Personally I think we should explore many options but I wouldn't mind ending up with buying low on him.

Basically, either one of these guys will have highest value next year which is why I think it fits when we need them. If they fade to a bench role during a multi year contract that's fine if Valera or someone is able to fill in.

Canha is the choice because of his ability to play 1B as well as playing the OF... Canha also plays a legit OF while Pham doesn't. That being said, Pham is definitely on my short list since he is going to be affordable enough for the Guardians in 22. I just rather have someone that has more versatility rather than a LF, with below average range and is coming off a bad year at a more advanced age...
 
Canha is the choice because of his ability to play 1B as well as playing the OF... Canha also plays a legit OF while Pham doesn't. That being said, Pham is definitely on my short list since he is going to be affordable enough for the Guardians in 22. I just rather have someone that has more versatility rather than a LF, with below average range and is coming off a bad year at a more advanced age...
I'd rebut that:
1) 1B is the easiest position on the field to play, and Pham did start out as a SS in rookie ball so he has some idea of how to deal with grounders and even if he couldn't fill in well at 1B we could move other guys around (I know Franmil was mentioned).
2) Pham generally rates as a slightly better defensive outfielder than Canha from metrics, both last season and throughout his career as a total. Neither are great and occupy the "slightly below average" at this point but I'd think Pham has the edge.
3) Pham's "bad year" had him hitting for a xwOBA of .351, which is very good (tied with Franmil), and better than Canha's (.332). The metrics show the same underlying is still there that allowed him to put up solid campaigns in the past. I would say it's Canha who had more of the "bad year" where his power retreated.

I feel like with either of these guys we're generally splitting hairs because they bring almost the same exact skillset, a generally patient approach of working counts that yields them a solid BB% and OBP. I do believe Pham has a bit more of a difficult time staying healthy though,
 
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I prefer Canha for several reasons. He is capable of playing four positions. He stays fairly healthy. He has a plus reputation as a team mate.

Pham is limited to left field and at times has been a plus defender there. But since first becoming a pro he has had difficulty staying healthy on and off the field. His persona is spotty.

Neither are truly impact players and both may be showing some wear and tear. But we are not talking about long term answers. We are looking for an improvement over what we have that acts as a bridge to what we hope to have.

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First base is not the easiest position to play. Left field is.

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Trades involving impact bats happen every year.

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We have a very good core in place. Fans may not be, but I am satisfied with it as a core. Two significant upgrades...one long term, one short...will make this an offense to reckon with.

A GM of a small market org has to base his decisions on some expectations, because he can't simply go out and buy an entire lineup like the Yankees.

My decisions have to be based on what I see over multiple years, not on one or two months of hot and cold spells.

I'm happy with both the rotation and pen, and the catching as an extension of the pitching.

I'm happy with Jose, Straw and Amed at short. I expect Amed to be average defensively and better offensively, if I just leave him alone. I expect Gimenez to be a sound 2B, maybe better. The 'competition' is over.

I'm happy with Bobby's defense at first and the way he has always worked his tail off for this org. I am not satisfied with his offense, but 1B is far from my top priority. I hope to cover my backside by bringing in a Plan B. I also am kinda wondering if Lavastida could play a little first, too. (I've seen what the Reds have done with Stephenson)

So nearly my entire focus is on acquiring two corner outfielders.

I don't want Amed out there for two reasons. I want to leave him alone for once, and let him do his thing...and I don't want to try and contend with two kiddies MIFs.

Doing so has only worked twice in history, and everyone involved is in...or should be in..
Cooperstown.

Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers. Alan Trammel and Lou Whitaker.

I'm not inflexible. If another opportunity presents itself, I'm willing to upgrade somewhere else...IB or catcher...but I'll be damned if I'm gonna watch yet another year of the sh*t show I've been watching in our outfield. I do not have a regular MLB corner outfielder on my 40 man roster.
 
I would agree that I'd rather focus on corner OF rather than 1B. BB has some obvious deficiencies, but IMO has enough positives that offset those deficiencies. And he's shown the desire and ability to work on his weaknesses.

Corner OF. Let's work that.
 

Well they have projected Arbitration salaries for everyone..

Indians (9)

Austin Hedges – $3.8MM
Nick Wittgren – $2.8MM
Amed Rosario – $5.0MM
Franmil Reyes – $4.4MM
Shane Bieber – $4.8MM
Bradley Zimmer – $1.5MM
Cal Quantrill – $2.8MM
Josh Naylor – $1.2MM
Harold Ramirez – $1.6MM

I dont know if everyone there is Arbitration Eligible so I guess we shall see when the number is out, but Quantrill, Naylor, HRam are all borderline, but 1.6 for HRam... I dont think we will keep him if he is arb eligible since I'd rather just keep OGonz if that's gonna pass...
 
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I'd rebut that:
1) 1B is the easiest position on the field to play, and Pham did start out as a SS in rookie ball so he has some idea of how to deal with grounders and even if he couldn't fill in well at 1B we could move other guys around (I know Franmil was mentioned).
2) Pham generally rates as a slightly better defensive outfielder than Canha from metrics, both last season and throughout his career as a total. Neither are great and occupy the "slightly below average" at this point but I'd think Pham has the edge.
3) Pham's "bad year" had him hitting for a xwOBA of .351, which is very good (tied with Franmil), and better than Canha's (.332). The metrics show the same underlying is still there that allowed him to put up solid campaigns in the past. I would say it's Canha who had more of the "bad year" where his power retreated.

I feel like with either of these guys we're generally splitting hairs because they bring almost the same exact skillset, a generally patient approach of working counts that yields them a solid BB% and OBP. I do believe Pham has a bit more of a difficult time staying healthy though,

Canha has almost 3k in innings at 1B between the pros and minors but honestly just looking at the numbers, personally I think I trust Canha out in the OF a little more (shown better range even though a lesser athlete), while Pham is the better athlete overall of the two (can steal bases and better on the basepaths), but it's so close to 1A-1B in that sense we really don't need to argue over the little details since both players on paper make sense. I just feel the innings at 1B and being the opposite hand batting wise, breaks the numbers tie since Pham hasn't played in the INF in like a decade so Canha gets the first nod.
 
Something I wonder.

It is generally assumed that Billy Beane will be forced to step back from contending next year, because he loses so many FAs, most of his key players will get arby raises, he has little money to spend, and no upper level prospects that are close to MLB ready.

But somehow, some way, Beane seldom steps back from contending.

Oaklands payroll was around $84 mil this year. The obligation for next year is $16 mil, if he declines options on two veteran relievers, Chafin and Diekman.

To sign his total arby class is projected to cost about $56 mil, and it includes his front three SPs. If he would sign them all, he has a payroll of about $72 mil for only 13 players.

Obviously, he is gonna trade several of those arby eligibles, and probably release others. But if he does that, his 2022 team looks like it will be in the basement.

But what if he trades a few that leave him with close to a wash, while cutting his payroll?

I'm not advocating for anything, merely thinking out loud....

What if we could trade Plesac, Morgan, two MIF ( Arias, and one of Miller-Palacios-Clement-Tena) prospects and Chang for Laureano and Montas?

How would that work for Oakland?

First of all, Oakland would save about $8 mil next year.

Montas is a better pitcher than Plesac, although the difference is not gigantic...but Montas has two less years of control. Morgan is better than Blackburn...their #4 and out of options. Thats at worst a wash for any budget minded team.

So it comes down to Chang, two prospects and $8 mil in savings for Laureano. Those three MIFs not only fill a huge organizational hole, but are better options at the MLB level than what Oakland has coming back. And if Beane wants one of our fringe OFs or OF prospects, he can have that, too.

Our youngsters could replace several of their fringe arby eligible players, thereby saving Beane another $5 mil.

Beane would be left with about $59 mil after such a trade, even after retaining, every other one of his key players...leaving him with a lot of flexibility, esp if he was allowed to keep his payroll at $84 mil.

How does this work out for Cleveland?

The downsides are that it adds $8 mil to the payroll and it cuts into our immediate rotation depth.

The upside is Laureano and an improved opening day rotation. It also solves our 40 man situation.

Again, just thinking out loud.
 
I still want Bassitt from the A's rather than Montas lol
 

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