Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

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CATS44

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As the GM of the Guardians, its only fair to compare my last iteration of the 40 man to that of Antonetti/Chernoff.

My roster was based on a 20/20 split between pitchers and players. The FO chose a 17/23 split so there are differences. It also was premised on if mo trades were made.

On the position player side, the FO chose Zimmer, Clement, and Tena. Tena was the most difficult for me to not protect...and my list was before the AFL...but I couldn't fit him in the 20 position player slots.

On the pitching side, I kept Wittgren, Mejia, Garza, Cantillo, and Perez.

They, of course, added Myers and kept Allen.

Had I gone with the 17/23 split, my position players would have been exactly the same as the FO, because Zimmer and Clement were the last two off on my board....so thats not too shabby.

But in the pitching side, there were some major differences, although mainly in volume.

Had I gone with 17 pitchers and added Myers, my last four pitchers were Perez, Garza, Wittgren, Gose, and Cantillo. So at 17, Perez, Wittgren, and Garza would have been gone. The ultimate difference ends up being Myers and Allen instead of Cantillo and Mejia.

I'm really happy that they kept Tena. Hopefully, we won't lose Mejia and Cantillo.
 

Gson

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Interesting "measuring stick" on MLB Tr this morning.. Apparently, the Orioles are having some minor/undetermined discussions with various and sundry GM's of other clubs regarding the possible "package" the Orioles could receive in a trade of John Means.. The actual returns haven't been discussed, however, if a deal does come together.. it can set a 'value' that may be just below what the Guardians could expect if they were to consider trading Zack Plesac.. food for thought..
 

CATS44

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Means:

28.5 yrs old
Three years of control.
348.2 IP
3.82 ERA
4.65 FIP
6.0 fWAR

Plesac:

26.8 yrs old
Four years of control.
3.93 ERA
4.57 FIP
3.4 fWAR
 

Gson

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Posted in the Thursday MLB Tr Chat:


Shortty: Can the Jays pry Bieber away from Cleveland with an offer of big prospects? I’m thinking Moreno, Pearson and Groshans

Mark P: You're in the ballpark of what it would take to obtain Bieber, but the Guardians would want even more. From Toronto specifically, probably something like Gurriel and another prospect

If the "another prospect" is Hoglund or Lopez, then considered would be mandatory, imho...
 

CDAV45

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Posted in the Thursday MLB Tr Chat:


Shortty: Can the Jays pry Bieber away from Cleveland with an offer of big prospects? I’m thinking Moreno, Pearson and Groshans

Mark P: You're in the ballpark of what it would take to obtain Bieber, but the Guardians would want even more. From Toronto specifically, probably something like Gurriel and another prospect

If the "another prospect" is Hoglund or Lopez, then considered would be mandatory, imho...
I don't get the Gurriel Jr. fandom. He's a 2-3 WAR player and that would be setting the bar kind of low IMO. I want nothing to do with him, Biggio, or Kirk from the Blue Jays.

If I were a Blue Jays' fan then I would be reluctant to give those 3 prospects for Bieber having seen the upside of Pearson. If he's healthy then he's an ace. If he's not then this package isn't good for Cleveland. I think a trade between these 2 teams will be very difficult to commensurate.

I'm not opposed to dealing Bieber, but not until he's down to 2 yrs of control or less or one of the young guns takes the top spot away from him. If this team has any aspirations of being competitive in 22 then dealing Bieber is out of the question. They could survive a Ramirez trade long before a Bieber trade at this time.
 

Gson

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I don't get the Gurriel Jr. fandom. He's a 2-3 WAR player and that would be setting the bar kind of low IMO. I want nothing to do with him, Biggio, or Kirk from the Blue Jays.

If I were a Blue Jays' fan then I would be reluctant to give those 3 prospects for Bieber having seen the upside of Pearson. If he's healthy then he's an ace. If he's not then this package isn't good for Cleveland. I think a trade between these 2 teams will be very difficult to commensurate.

I'm not opposed to dealing Bieber, but not until he's down to 2 yrs of control or less or one of the young guns takes the top spot away from him. If this team has any aspirations of being competitive in 22 then dealing Bieber is out of the question. They could survive a Ramirez trade long before a Bieber trade at this time.
The single star player versus the wave of talent is what you're arguing.. Both have merit.. both have risk..

The relative values show that with Gunnar Hoglund as the "other prospect", then the fully burdened value of the deal would have the Blue Jays coughing up 113.9 in value.. while the Guardians would be sacrificing 113.2 in value for Shane, alone.. The deal, using the BTV algorithm as a sanity check is "commensurate"..

Truth be told..if the Guards can get one healthy year out of Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Nate Pearson can give 20 + starts in 2022.. then this would equate to "stealing"!!! Moreno would be akin to the deal from back in the late 80's/early 90's for a more athletic and better throwing Sandy Alomar from the Padres.. all over again.. Moreno is as good as any catcher I've seen at this age...

I like the deal mainly because it takes the Guards catching situation from "holding on with Austin Hedges/hoping for the development of Lava and Bo.. to no one in MLB has a better catching group in the league.. including the orioles"..

I hate losing Shane.. but I can't overlook what our catching situation is.. That's why I'm not the GM..
 

sportscoach

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The single star player versus the wave of talent is what you're arguing.. Both have merit.. both have risk..

The relative values show that with Gunnar Hoglund as the "other prospect", then the fully burdened value of the deal would have the Blue Jays coughing up 113.9 in value.. while the Guardians would be sacrificing 113.2 in value for Shane, alone.. The deal, using the BTV algorithm as a sanity check is "commensurate"..

Truth be told..if the Guards can get one healthy year out of Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Nate Pearson can give 20 + starts in 2022.. then this would equate to "stealing"!!! Moreno would be akin to the deal from back in the late 80's/early 90's for a more athletic and better throwing Sandy Alomar from the Padres.. all over again.. Moreno is as good as any catcher I've seen at this age...

I like the deal mainly because it takes the Guards catching situation from "holding on with Austin Hedges/hoping for the development of Lava and Bo.. to no one in MLB has a better catching group in the league.. including the orioles"..

I hate losing Shane.. but I can't overlook what our catching situation is.. That's why I'm not the GM..

If we got Moreno, Pearson, Guirrel Jr, Hoglund and Groshans, it would be hard to say no in a lot of ways except for the fact we do want to compete in 22, but long term that would be a great trade...
 

Gson

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If we got Moreno, Pearson, Guirrel Jr, Hoglund and Groshans, it would be hard to say no in a lot of ways except for the fact we do want to compete in 22, but long term that would be a great trade...
A pretty good argument could be made that with this theoretical deal.. we would do nothing but compete.. in 2022 and beyond..

The loss of Shane cannot be over stated.. but.. w/ a healthy Nate Pearson delivering 80 to 90 % of the productivity of what Shane brought.. then most of Shane's production will be re-coup'd in the pitching.. Coupling that with the further development/improvement of Plesac, Civale and mostly, the dynamic duo of Quantrill & McKenzie.. and this is a starting pitching staff that can compete..with anyone.. and especially, everyone in the AL Central..

IOW..using the deal as a reason to claim the Guards would not compete in 2022.. is pessimistic.... It's can be stated that it's better to go with the horse you know.. Shane is that.. Pearson isn't and hasn't been.. but he can be... Even you'd agree with that.. Then, adding Gurriel Jr, an ~ 3 WAR player to Left Field (plugging a HUGE hole in the Guards team).. this makes the offense WITH Jose Ramirez that much better..

There is no doubt that both Moreno and Groshans will be making their ML debut with the Jays as things stand right now..or with their new club.. Near ML ready, well thought of, bat first, superb prospects are what paves the way to competing.. Like I said.. it's not my call.. but an argument for the deal can be made.. and not dismissed under the banner of "..they won't compete in 2022..."

Thoughts?
 

sportscoach

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A pretty good argument could be made that with this theoretical deal.. we would do nothing but compete.. in 2022 and beyond..

The loss of Shane cannot be over stated.. but.. w/ a healthy Nate Pearson delivering 80 to 90 % of the productivity of what Shane brought.. then most of Shane's production will be re-coup'd in the pitching.. Coupling that with the further development/improvement of Plesac, Civale and mostly, the dynamic duo of Quantrill & McKenzie.. and this is a starting pitching staff that can compete..with anyone.. and especially, everyone in the AL Central..

IOW..using the deal as a reason to claim the Guards would not compete in 2022.. is pessimistic.... It's can be stated that it's better to go with the horse you know.. Shane is that.. Pearson isn't and hasn't been.. but he can be... Even you'd agree with that.. Then, adding Gurriel Jr, an ~ 3 WAR player to Left Field (plugging a HUGE hole in the Guards team).. this makes the offense WITH Jose Ramirez that much better..

There is no doubt that both Moreno and Groshans will be making their ML debut with the Jays as things stand right now..or with their new club.. Near ML ready, well thought of, bat first, superb prospects are what paves the way to competing.. Like I said.. it's not my call.. but an argument for the deal can be made.. and not dismissed under the banner of "..they won't compete in 2022..."

Thoughts?

We went from Cy Young contender to unproven MLB arm... Guirrel is the only proven player back and WAR wise will fill in one hole but we created another. Odds say we get worse in 22 trading Bieber and the division itself will be stronger in 22 as well overall so getting weaker on paper when the teams around us likely are stronger, hard to merit being a contender without Bieber in a sense.

Now if we could make a swap for like Marquez and keep Guirrel, Pearson and Moreno, then it's possible to stay contenders since we just really improved the team in a way.

It would have to be Bieber for those 5, then using pieces to get a different solid TOR/MOR then adding a OF bat in free agency... that could possibly be scary to face if done correctly, but just that one move alone will make us go backwards on paper in 22...
 

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