Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[Criznit]

You do realize that the central component of the deal for the Guardians would be Ketel Marte, All-Star and MVP finalist who is on an insanely team-friendly contract for three more seasons, right?

Of course I do, but not nearly as high on him as I am Reynolds and certainly would never include Espino in a a trade for Marte/Kelly.

 

[Kevalier]

Of course I do, but not nearly as high on him as I am Reynolds and certainly would never include Espino in a a trade for Marte/Kelly.

Just curious, why are you so much higher than Reynolds than Marte? Both players are star-caliber in their prime years. Marte posted an fWAR of 7 in 2019 and his fWAR this season when extrapolated over 162 games was well over 5. Both are switch-hitters, where Reynolds average wRC+ over the past three seasons is 115 while Marte's average wRC+ over the past three seasons is 127. Perhaps most importantly, Marte won't be entering arbitration over the next three years, while Reynolds will cost quite a bit year to year over arbitration if his production continues to be at last season's level.

 

[Criznit]

Just curious, why are you so much higher than Reynolds than Marte? Both players are star-caliber in their prime years. Marte posted an fWAR of 7 in 2019 and his fWAR this season when extrapolated over 162 games was well over 5. Both are switch-hitters, where Reynolds average wRC+ over the past three seasons is 115 while Marte's average wRC+ over the past three seasons is 127. Perhaps most importantly, Marte won't be entering arbitration over the next three years, while Reynolds will cost quite a bit year to year over arbitration if his production continues to be at last season's level.

I can't back up my "gut" with facts.. For some reason I think Reynolds is better in the long run and Marte could breakdown.. Also I don't think Marte has played in the corner OF ever so would we be good throwing him out there or line him up at 2nd? Also, I think Arizona is less inclined to move him than the Pirates are with Reynolds, again can't back that up factually.

I would definitely approve of adding Marte, but if it cost both Espino and Freeman.. It's tough for me, real tough.

On a side note..

Marlins Interested In Ketel Marte

The Marlins have shown interest in the Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. There isn't any indication …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[Kevalier]

I can't back up my "gut" with facts.. For some reason I think Reynolds is better in the long run and Marte could breakdown.. Also I don't think Marte has played in the corner OF ever so would we be good throwing him out there or line him up at 2nd? Also, I think Arizona is less inclined to move him than the Pirates are with Reynolds, again can't back that up factually.

I would definitely approve of adding Marte, but if it cost both Espino and Freeman.. It's tough for me, real tough.

On a side note..

Marlins Interested In Ketel Marte

The Marlins have shown interest in the Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. There isn't any indication …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Yeah, Rosenthal's report is what prompted my post about Marte. Regarding the corner OF/2B, his defensive versatility is such a huge plus. Let's say that Andres Gimenez has an excellent spring training and is viewed as having earned the everyday 2B job. Marte could then primarily play in LF, as I don't see why he would massively struggle there considering he mostly played in CF. If someone like Kwan or Palacios blows everyone away this spring and earns an everyday job in LF or RF, Marte can then play nearly everyday at 2B. I do expect the team to still add one proven outfielder in the event they somehow pull off a Marte trade.

 

[Criznit]

Yeah, Rosenthal's report is what prompted my post about Marte. Regarding the corner OF/2B, his defensive versatility is such a huge plus. Let's say that Andres Gimenez has an excellent spring training and is viewed as having earned the everyday 2B job. Marte could then primarily play in LF, as I don't see why he would massively struggle there considering he mostly played in CF. If someone like Kwan or Palacios blows everyone away this spring and earns an everyday job in LF or RF, Marte can then play nearly everyday at 2B. I do expect the team to still add one proven outfielder in the event they somehow pull off a Marte trade.

2B belongs to Amed Rosario at this point and Gimenez is our SS IMO. So Marte would be our LFer.... Or Amed would be our LFer and Marte is our 2B.

Definitely have enough flexibility to make it work though

 

[sportscoach]

I don't think he lacks speed at all. In his brief minor league career he has stolen 87 bases and been thrown out 9 times. He's a good defensive CFer too. So his power or lack thereof begs the question. Is he a capable LFer? There's really only 1 way to find out. He might be the closest thing to Michael Brantley we've had. If the power he showed in Columbus last season is sustainable then he's a 20 HR hitter with excellent OBP and contact skills. I'd take that with good defense every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Worst case scenario is that he's a damn fine 4th OFer/late inning defensive replacement.

None of this dissuades me from wanting to acquire Vientos though. I like the power and the performance and he could come cheaply as he is blocked at every turn in NY.

When you consider these options, trading for a Reynolds or Mullins seems much more unlikely. I think they'll add an OFer, but it will be somebody like Vientos or Lane Thomas as someone else mentioned. In all honesty, I would be fine with that approach, but I don't blame someone if they would prefer to go "bigger" for Mullins or Reynolds. Even if we don't see eye to eye on how they should approach the 22 season, we all want to see the Guardians win.

Ummm you definitely have Kwan's SB numbers just a bit wrong... he has had 20 SBs with 9 caught stealing while in the minors... His speed is rated at 45, which is the same as Bo Naylors btw. Freeman and Valera are listed as a 50 while Jones and Lavastida are listed as a 40. Most CF prospects usually have around a 55-60... so he is below average speed wise for his position but his range and whatnot factors have him playing average if not above average in CF, so as I said before, he is not a combine darling, but still just out produces his combine numbers...

 

[sportscoach]

Regarding Marte, his best position is 2B honestly on paper... he is below what you want in SS and CF, so its very likely cause of the defensive talent at CF and SS, if we acquired Marte he would be put into LF since it's our position of need in a sense...

 

[sportscoach]

Perhaps the best trading partner to acquire a catcher might be the St Louis Cardinals.. There are several points that make sense for this:

1. Yadier Molina on a one year $ 10 MM contract as the primary catcher & Andrew Knizner as his back up
2. The Cardinals have both corner infield spots filled, including Nolan Arenado at 3B.. making JRam unneeded
3. The Cardinals are in perpetual need for a slick fielding middle infielder who can hit now and into the future
4. The Cardinals biggest need is pitching.. both relievers and starters..

The Cardinals have a pair of pre-arbitration OF'er's in Lars Nootbaar OF, Tommy Edman Inf/RF & some firepower in Nolan Gorman 3B/2B/LF & a future everyday starting catcher in Ivan Herrera. There are plenty of complimentary pieces (genesis cabrera, harrison bader, alex reyes, others) that would fit nicely into a Guardians uniform..

For the Guardians.. the Cardinals would want Bieber.. but settle for Plesac: a bona fide MOR SP.. Additionally, Andres Gimenez would fit nicely there.. so would Tyler Freeman, Logan S Allen, Bracho, Jose Tena and others. There could be a small deal or a large/involved deal between the two clubs.. or even a third team given the depth of middle infielders the Guardians have that would interest these clubs..

example..

Cincinnati gets: Andres Gimenez and Matt Liberatore
St Louis gets: Tyler Mahle, Tanner Burns and Zach Plesac
Cleveland gets: Nick Senzel, Michael McGreevy, Ivan Herrera and Josh Baez

While there are endless permutations that can be imagined (and that's all this is at this point, an imaginary deal).. the idea that a catcher that is ready to compete for a spot in a major league lineup right now can be had..for the right deal. Ivan Herrera is at that level. In this example.. the Reds solve their SS problem and get another TOR SP (to go with Lodolo and Greene) for their 2023-25 window of contention. The Cardinals pitching staff gets two SP's with 2 and 4 years of control, respectively, and a future SP by trading first round picks with the Guardians. The Guardians get their catcher.. get Shane Bieber's alumnus-mate & get two OF'ers (both RHH's), one now and one in the future...

-No JRam..
-No prospects that are leaning toward being untouchable

Who says no? What say you?

We have plenty of MIF so trading one makes sense and we may be able to get around losing Plesac... also I don't think the Cardinals do the trade since they are giving up 4 of their top 10 prospects. McGreevy and Libatore are two legit SP prospects so I am not sure I would trade Libatore at all right now if I was them.... I'd like a Mahle or Plesac though to go with Libatore... Mahle likely could net the Reds some players from the Cardinals... but I doubt the Reds would trade Mahle in the division... Senzel isn't worth anything honestly... it would be better to keep him than trade him since he may be worth the same as Zimmer right now...

I'd actually say no for all teams on the moves... Herrera hasn't even played at AAA, 1 game doesn't say MLB ready to me. Senzel hasn't proven anything in the pros... so I am losing a plus defensive SS a MOR SP plus a solid prospect for 3 MiLB players (one starting the season at AAA) and a MLB bat that hasn't proven anything so for the Guardians this is a bad move...

I'd rather just do a quick swap for C Ali Sanchez (Chang for Sanchez type of move in a sense). I dont see anyone else worth getting on the Cardinals right now...Cardinals are a match for the Reds and Guardians on paper, but I don't see a move on paper that actually would improve the Guardians overall in 22...

 

[Gson]

We have plenty of MIF so trading one makes sense and we may be able to get around losing Plesac... also I don't think the Cardinals do the trade since they are giving up 4 of their top 10 prospects. McGreevy and Libatore are two legit SP prospects so I am not sure I would trade Libatore at all right now if I was them.... I'd like a Mahle or Plesac though to go with Libatore... Mahle likely could net the Reds some players from the Cardinals... but I doubt the Reds would trade Mahle in the division... Senzel isn't worth anything honestly... it would be better to keep him than trade him since he may be worth the same as Zimmer right now...

I'd actually say no for all teams on the moves... Herrera hasn't even played at AAA, 1 game doesn't say MLB ready to me. Senzel hasn't proven anything in the pros... so I am losing a plus defensive SS a MOR SP plus a solid prospect for 3 MiLB players (one starting the season at AAA) and a MLB bat that hasn't proven anything so for the Guardians this is a bad move...

I'd rather just do a quick swap for C Ali Sanchez (Chang for Sanchez type of move in a sense). I dont see anyone else worth getting on the Cardinals right now...Cardinals are a match for the Reds and Guardians on paper, but I don't see a move on paper that actually would improve the Guardians overall in 22...

ali sanchez isn't worth Chang.. he might be worth what the cardinals paid for him.. cash considerations.. no more.. this kind of choice says "..not competing.." Sanchez had a brief moment in AA ball, otherwise, he's got an average glove and not much more. The only reason he still has a gig in the ML's is Yadi never takes a day off.. making Sanchez's contributions nothing or next to nothing.. This is a losing strategy..

 

[sportscoach]

ali sanchez isn't worth Chang.. he might be worth what the cardinals paid for him.. cash considerations.. no more.. this kind of choice says "..not competing.." Sanchez had a brief moment in AA ball, otherwise, he's got an average glove and not much more. The only reason he still has a gig in the ML's is Yadi never takes a day off.. making Sanchez's contributions nothing or next to nothing.. This is a losing strategy..

Sanchez has better than an average glove, he is actually one of the top prospects in baseball when it comes to his catching glovework... He has over 3k in innings behind the plate in the minors with a 45% caught stealing rate (remember average is 26ish%). Now when it comes to his bat, yeah he will never have a starters bat, but I think with some tweaks he could at least put up a decent avg... I think he is the perfect backup catcher long term for the Guardians since the FO loves defensive catchers...

 

[Gson]

Catching has to be a priority "A" need for the Guardians heading into "whatever this is" during the time from the Braves winning the world series and the start of spring training, 75 days from now..

Catchers who have at least one entrenched player in front of them that could be available in trade could include what I'll call the top half dozen guys. Campusano Huff and Langeliers are both close enough to being "ML Ready" that they could break with the Guardians from 2022 spring training as the primary back up to Austin Hedges.. It's also more than a LITTLE likely the Guardians take three catchers north with them to face the Royals on opening day, if there is one..

Guys like Francisco Alvarez; Mets, or Gabriel Moreno; Blue Jays, or Adley Rutschman, Orioles, or Joey Bart, Giants, just aren't available.. not for the price they'd command.. starting with Jose Ramirez in virtually every deal. For this discussion, we'll go with the prevailing myth that JRam is being extended and won't be traded.

Luis Campusano, Padres.. 25.1

Diego Cartaya, Dodgers 29.1

Ivan Herrera, Cardinals 20.6

Sam Huff, Rangers 7.6

Shea Langeliers, Braves 27.1

Corey Lee, Astros 22.5

These are the kinds of backstops that could be wearing a "Flying G" logo on their sleeve as early as 2022.. What would you give up to get one or more than one of them ( a three way deal with the Astros/Rangers/Guardians that sees Huff and Lee come to the Guardians) ?.. None of the catchers on this list are rated overly expensive.. Thoughts?...

 

[sportscoach]

Catching has to be a priority "A" need for the Guardians heading into "whatever this is" during the time from the Braves winning the world series and the start of spring training, 75 days from now..

Catchers who have at least one entrenched player in front of them that could be available in trade could include what I'll call the top half dozen guys. Campusano Huff and Langeliers are both close enough to being "ML Ready" that they could break with the Guardians from 2022 spring training as the primary back up to Austin Hedges.. It's also more than a LITTLE likely the Guardians take three catchers north with them to face the Royals on opening day, if there is one..

Guys like Francisco Alvarez; Mets, or Gabriel Moreno; Blue Jays, or Adley Rutschman, Orioles, or Joey Bart, Giants, just aren't available.. not for the price they'd command.. starting with Jose Ramirez in virtually every deal. For this discussion, we'll go with the prevailing myth that JRam is being extended and won't be traded.

Luis Campusano, Padres.. 25.1

Diego Cartaya, Dodgers 29.1

Ivan Herrera, Cardinals 20.6

Sam Huff, Rangers 7.6

Shea Langeliers, Braves 27.1

Corey Lee, Astros 22.5

These are the kinds of backstops that could be wearing a "Flying G" logo on their sleeve as early as 2022.. What would you give up to get one or more than one of them ( a three way deal with the Astros/Rangers/Guardians that sees Huff and Lee come to the Guardians) ?.. None of the catchers on this list are rated overly expensive.. Thoughts?...

Campusano did get into some legal troubles before, so that could be a red flag in some ways... Also he hasn't shown he can throw at runners yet, but he is a solid athlete so with training and his solid bat, he should be a decent MLB catcher. I just feel he may lack the full defensive prowess that the Guardians FO expects...

How is Cartaya even close to being MLB ready... he hasn't even played at AA yet? Herrera hasn't had time at AAA yet... so both guys I have to rule out as someone that can contribute in 22 at this current moment... Shea is also in this category... I don't think he's ready in 22 for the bigs just yet. I want to see him get a better BB% and SO%... Defense seems like it is there though... Lee also needs another minor league season since he really hasn't had much time above A ball..

Sam Huff may already have a question about his knee... he had to get surgery on his knee hence why he hasn't touched a catchers mitt in over a year. The question will his medicals on that knee allow him to get back into catching? He also had a poor 21...

Lavastida though honestly compares to Herrera, Shea, Lee etc in the distance from the pros.. If I am told to choose one of your list for 22 it would be Sha Langeliers 100% of the time.. the question is what will Atlanta want for him? I don't think he would be as cheap as you are saying.. Shea is listed as a 55 FV with a 65 grade in defense... I wouldn't trade him... he's too good defensively...

 

[CDAV45]

Campusano did get into some legal troubles before, so that could be a red flag in some ways... Also he hasn't shown he can throw at runners yet, but he is a solid athlete so with training and his solid bat, he should be a decent MLB catcher. I just feel he may lack the full defensive prowess that the Guardians FO expects...

How is Cartaya even close to being MLB ready... he hasn't even played at AA yet? Herrera hasn't had time at AAA yet... so both guys I have to rule out as someone that can contribute in 22 at this current moment... Shea is also in this category... I don't think he's ready in 22 for the bigs just yet. I want to see him get a better BB% and SO%... Defense seems like it is there though... Lee also needs another minor league season since he really hasn't had much time above A ball..

Sam Huff may already have a question about his knee... he had to get surgery on his knee hence why he hasn't touched a catchers mitt in over a year. The question will his medicals on that knee allow him to get back into catching? He also had a poor 21...

Lavastida though honestly compares to Herrera, Shea, Lee etc in the distance from the pros.. If I am told to choose one of your list for 22 it would be Sha Langeliers 100% of the time.. the question is what will Atlanta want for him? I don't think he would be as cheap as you are saying.. Shea is listed as a 55 FV with a 65 grade in defense... I wouldn't trade him... he's too good defensively...

Hard to even speculate what the FO thinks of Campusano as a person. He may have matured and be a great kid. It's also hard to know what they think of his defense too. I'm sure they would get Sandy involved and listen to what he has to say. If Sandy thinks he can get him to where he needs to be then they would probably consider him in a deal.

I agree with what you said about Cartaya and Herrera, but Langeliers is ready defensively. Considering that and his offensive upside then the worst you would have is another very good defensive C that struggles offensively. If Lavastida continues on his development path then he'll carry as much value as Langeliers and possibly a little more. I say that because Lavastida's bat is the stuff we dream about from a C and his defensive development is coming along quicker than most anticipated.

 

[CATS44]

So much to address, and football and Christmas decorating has put me behind...lol.

What to address first? Let's go with the proposed trade for Marte and Kelly first.

Marte
Kelly

For

Arias
Jones
Bo Naylor
Wolf
Zimmer

************

I have no problem with Marte, and would be happy if he ends up here, but there are others I prefer. But the caveats...his overall value is driven by one freak year and the fact that he has always played up the middle. He is not a 7 fWAR player, and outside of that one spectacular year, he has never accumulated 3 fWAR. And he won't play a key defensive position for us.

*********

The question was asked, why would Pittsburgh trade Reynolds for prospects, Why would any team trade for prospects? Because they are the most over valued assets in baseball...a real market inefficiency. Why would anybody spend assets of any kind on something that you knew would fail more than two out of three times? But like folks that go to Vegas, knowing that they can't win and do so anyway, GMs keep trading quality MLB players for prospects.

Look at the Jackie Bradley, jr, trade if you need that fact reinforced.

*************

Glad to see somebody else mention Tommy Edman.

*******

I've been accused of moving the goalposts on our prospects, because so many of them are 'MLB ready.

But MLB ready is a far cry from MLB productive. It usually takes several years for even the best prospects to be significant producers. Weve certainly had a lot of examples of that right here in Cleveland. We see it across alI of baseball...

Andrew Vaughn, Kiriloff, Kelenic,Trammell, Adell, Senzel, Austin Riley, Moncado...all may or have become outstanding players, but it took the ones that have several years in MLB to do so.

If a GM of an expected contending team is foolish enough to think that he can plug in two or three rookies and get immediate production from them all, he is not far from the unemployment line. We are expecting to contend, and it won't be by flooding the 26 man with untested rookies.

***********

Palacios is what he is, a less than stellar defender who hit a ton against weaker collegiate competition, and done the same while being older than the levels he has played at in pro ball.

I like Palacios as much as anybody, but I've watched him go from one of the 'other' prospects to being almost untouchable for some posters...just as Jones, Arias, and Miller were in the past eight months.

**************

The longer it takes to reach an agreement on a new CBA, the worse off many of the lower and mid level FAs are gonna be.

If there is only a week to go until spring training, some of them are gonna have to choose between signing immediately for whatever guarantee they can get or taking a minor league contract with no guarantee. My guess is that there are gonna be some low guarantee contracts loaded with incentives, which are the best kind of contracts for a team. If they produce, they get paid what they are worth. If not, they wont.

In any case, there are gonna be some bargains out there.

 

[CDAV45]

I can't recall anyone even mentioning "untouchable" and "Palacios" in the same sentence.

A GM that brings up a prospect that performs well looks like a genius. That's the other side of an assumption that didn't get addressed. There are numerous examples of both. Every year there are rookies the help their teams win, but that doesn't fit the narrative.

Stating that not trading prospects for whichever player preferred is a double edged sword. Either way, there's 1 side of the deal getting the short end of the stick. Especially if their trading a young player controlled for several years. The idea of prospects having a small chance of making it is accurate with lower level prospects. Take the lower level prospects out of the equation and you have a very different picture. Projection is pretty much out the window and that's where the inaccuracy comes into play.

It's been made public that Pittsburgh will not take anything less than a haul for Reynolds. I don't blame them, but you see he's still in a Pirates uniform and their are cost limits to everything. Remove Reynolds name and insert Mullins and the same applies.

Marte's ability to play OF and hit would help this team if he's healthy and the cost to get him would be significantly less than Reynolds or Mullins, but his hamstring issues concern me TBH. Those things never really go away. The WAR numbers mentioned aren't the whole story. In 2019 Marte put up 6.9 WAR in 628 PA and an OPS+ of 149. His OPS+ was 143 last season which is right there with his 2019 production. The big difference in his WAR is that the metrics didn't like his defense last season which was the only anomaly in his career. Defensive metrics aren't worth a shit anyway and I'd guess his defense in a corner OF would be excellent if his hammy's hold up.

Their going make a trade or 2. I think the biggest one will be one of the SP again. If they make a 2nd trade it could be a few prospects for a major league need, but they probably have a list that they will not deal from. The farm is deep enough that they don't have to trade any of the upper level prospects that look like they can help this team win.