As I am a numbers/data person, I thought I would try to start quantifying some of the effects of the new CBA. Please share any other thoughts or additional provisions analysis.
Starting with Top 10 order provision and top 6 lottery provision.
Per Callis at MLB.com -- Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.
As for odds,
First, I do not think this provision will really make a team like Baltimore to say no more tanking. Some teams are just bad for years due to a competitive division and poor management where their prospect pool was left bare due to poor scouting and/or poor trades (or just trading everyone before opportunity window closes). And, who was tanking in 2020 for Leiter or Rocker? Prospects are just too far away and just one of 14 starters in MLB (9 players + 5 pitchers) vs legit tanking in NBA for next Durant or Lebron or in NFL for next stud QB or DE. Did Baltimore purposely lose games (like Cleveland Browns are accused of under Sashi) to wrap up the 1st overall pick for 2022?
Teams that would be in the Top-6 for consecutive years (without factoring in a lottery adjustment) is small. I don't have exact list of teams receiving revenue sharing (for 2 consecutive year rule vs 1 year for large clubs) so just used the additional International signing pool amounts/draft comp pick teams and added Oakland as a starting point to determine the lottery impact (who would lose a top-6 pick). I think Pardes and Cardinals maybe small market teams but not necessarily revenue receivers and it did not change this analysis.
If we assumed the lottery kept the draft order relatively constant historically
Baltimore (would have lost a 5th pick in 21 - so 11th pick instead)
White Sox (would have lost 3rd pick in 19 so 11th instead)
Cincinnati (as they were 7th in 2019 but 5th in 2018 and 2nd in 2017, pick would have fallen to 11th/12th pick in new format)
Detroit (would have lost 1st pick in 20)
Kansas City (like Cinci, their 7th pick in 21 would have been 12th due to top-6 in 2020 and 2019)
Texas (would have lost 3rd pick in 22)
San Fransisco (9th pick in 2019, would become 13th pick)
Note, in 2019, 3 teams Cinci, SanFran and WhiteSox would have fallen out of the top 10 to 11th, 12th and 13th slots. So, a team like Phili would have jumped from 13th to 10th even without winning the lottery (but this was the biggest impact year with 2 teams in 2020 draft falling out of top 10).
However, in a 4/5 year lookback analysis, there would have been about 7 changes in non-top 10 draft order (if lottery did not change any order of picks previously). So, even if there is a tanking issue in MLB, is this really going to fix it? Would knowing they were going to lose a top lottery pick kept Detroit from being the worst team for 2020 draft or Texas from being the 3rd worst team last year? I doubt it... Would Pittsburgh go out and sign Free Agents this year knowing their best draft pick in 2023 would be 11th due to 2 prior consecutive top-6 drafts (if the look back rule was in effect which it won't be)?
Starting with Top 10 order provision and top 6 lottery provision.
Per Callis at MLB.com -- Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.
As for odds,
First, I do not think this provision will really make a team like Baltimore to say no more tanking. Some teams are just bad for years due to a competitive division and poor management where their prospect pool was left bare due to poor scouting and/or poor trades (or just trading everyone before opportunity window closes). And, who was tanking in 2020 for Leiter or Rocker? Prospects are just too far away and just one of 14 starters in MLB (9 players + 5 pitchers) vs legit tanking in NBA for next Durant or Lebron or in NFL for next stud QB or DE. Did Baltimore purposely lose games (like Cleveland Browns are accused of under Sashi) to wrap up the 1st overall pick for 2022?
Teams that would be in the Top-6 for consecutive years (without factoring in a lottery adjustment) is small. I don't have exact list of teams receiving revenue sharing (for 2 consecutive year rule vs 1 year for large clubs) so just used the additional International signing pool amounts/draft comp pick teams and added Oakland as a starting point to determine the lottery impact (who would lose a top-6 pick). I think Pardes and Cardinals maybe small market teams but not necessarily revenue receivers and it did not change this analysis.
If we assumed the lottery kept the draft order relatively constant historically
Baltimore (would have lost a 5th pick in 21 - so 11th pick instead)
White Sox (would have lost 3rd pick in 19 so 11th instead)
Cincinnati (as they were 7th in 2019 but 5th in 2018 and 2nd in 2017, pick would have fallen to 11th/12th pick in new format)
Detroit (would have lost 1st pick in 20)
Kansas City (like Cinci, their 7th pick in 21 would have been 12th due to top-6 in 2020 and 2019)
Texas (would have lost 3rd pick in 22)
San Fransisco (9th pick in 2019, would become 13th pick)
Note, in 2019, 3 teams Cinci, SanFran and WhiteSox would have fallen out of the top 10 to 11th, 12th and 13th slots. So, a team like Phili would have jumped from 13th to 10th even without winning the lottery (but this was the biggest impact year with 2 teams in 2020 draft falling out of top 10).
However, in a 4/5 year lookback analysis, there would have been about 7 changes in non-top 10 draft order (if lottery did not change any order of picks previously). So, even if there is a tanking issue in MLB, is this really going to fix it? Would knowing they were going to lose a top lottery pick kept Detroit from being the worst team for 2020 draft or Texas from being the 3rd worst team last year? I doubt it... Would Pittsburgh go out and sign Free Agents this year knowing their best draft pick in 2023 would be 11th due to 2 prior consecutive top-6 drafts (if the look back rule was in effect which it won't be)?
| Draft Order by Year | 2022 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |
| s | Arizona | 2 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 25 | 7 |
| Atlanta | 19 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 5 | |
| s | Baltimore | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| Boston | 23 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 26 | 24 | |
| CHI Cubs | 7 | 21 | 16 | 25 | 24 | 30 | |
| CHI White Sox | 25 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| s | Cincinnati | 17 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| s | Cleveland | 15 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 28 |
| s | Colorado | 10 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 22 | 29 |
| s | Detroit | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| Houston | 27 | 29 | 28 | 15 | |||
| s | Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 14 |
| LA Angels | 12 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 10 | |
| LA Dodgers | 29 | 29 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 23 | |
| s | Miami | 6 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 |
| s | Milwaukee | 26 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 21 | 9 |
| s | Minnesota | 8 | 26 | 27 | 12 | 20 | 1 |
| NY Mets | 13 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 20 | |
| NY Yankees | 24 | 20 | 28 | 28 | 23 | 16 | |
| s | Oakland | 18 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 9 | 6 |
| Philadelphia | 16 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 8 | |
| s | Pittsburgh | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 12 |
| s | San Diego | 14 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| San Francisco | 30 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 19 | |
| Seattle | 20 | 12 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 17 | |
| s | St. Louis | 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| s | Tampa Bay | 28 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 4 |
| Texas | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 26 | |
| Toronto | 22 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 22 | |
| Washington | 5 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 27 | 25 |
